Padres Farm Report (21 May 08)

Triple-APortland 4, Tucson 1

Matt Antonelli: 0-for-3, 2 BB
Chase Headley: 1-for-4, 2B
Brian Myrow: 0-for-4
Chip Ambres (CF): 2-for-3, 2 2B, BB
Nick Hundley: 0-for-4
Michael Barrett (PH): 1-for-1, 2B
Will Venable (PH): 0-for-1
Cesar Ramos: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 SO
Carlos Guevara: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 0 SO (3 GO)
Adam Bass: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 0 SO
Jared Wells: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 SO

Antonelli returns to the leadoff spot after an extended stay at the bottom of the order. Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts examines Antonelli’s disappointing start to 2008 (h/t Didi) and believes, as do I, that his power surge last year was a bit of a fluke. I’ve often compared Antonelli to former Astros second baseman Bill Doran, while Rich in his response to my comments mentions Todd Walker and Mark Loretta, both of whom seem reasonable to me.

Comping is such a difficult thing to do because minor-league performances vary so much from year to year and depending on environments. I’m playing around with a “system” (I use the term very loosely, as it’s more art than science) that shows Antonelli to be similar to guys like Julio Cruz and Gerald Young based on his 2006 season, and similar to a young Barry Larkin or Jimmy Rollins based on 2007 numbers. Obviously there’s a significant gap between those two sets of comps.

Most likely, as Antonelli’s performance so far in ’08 seems to indicate, these represent extreme cases at either end of a center point that represents the type of production we should expect going forward. In other words, he’s probably not as bad as Cruz or Young (fringe big leaguers), but not as good as Larkin or Rollins (All Stars).

Obvious? Maybe, but it’s still useful to work through the process.


No games scheduled in the Texas League on Tuesday.

Chad Huffman (.444/.557/.651) has been on fire in May, while Craig Cooper (.266/.309/.422) and Kyle Blanks (.274/.333/.384) have struggled relative to their April performances. On the pitching side, the big three of Will Inman, Matt Buschmann, and Steve Garrison continue to roll. Garrison is doing it the Cesar Ramos way, while Inman and Buschmann are each striking out more than one batter per inning.


No games scheduled in the Cal League on Tuesday.

Eric Sogard (.279/.389/.295) has cooled off in May after a blistering start. Rayner Contreras (.200/.286/.240) still hasn’t gotten it going. Mitch Canham (.381/.552/.452) is headed in the opposite direction — 16 walks against 3 strikeouts is just obnoxious (not that anyone minds). Among pitchers, Nathan Culp and Drew Miller have been throwing the ball well this month.

Low-AFort Wayne 6, Great Lakes 5

Luis Durango (CF): 0-for-4, BB
Andrew Cumberland (SS): 1-for-4, 2B, BB, SB, 2 E
Justin Baum: 0-for-4, BB
Yefri Carvajal: 2-for-5
Felix Carrasco: 1-for-5, HR
Shane Buschini: 0-for-1, 2 BB
Jeremy Hefner: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 SO
Matt Teague: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 1 SO

The Wizards drew nine walks on Tuesday… After a slow start, Carvajal has picked up his game. He’s hitting .328/.378/.403 so far in May.

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9 Responses »

  1. I saw Antonelli play a lot last year. He kind of reminds me of Steve Sax.

  2. Have to wonder if Myrow keeps producing – this month .364/.469/.636 – and Clark isn’t exactly setting the world afire – would the Padres deal Clark if a deal is out there?

  3. One thing I’ve noticed about Antonelli, is that he’s overly patient at the plate. Almost too patient to where ends up getting himself in a hole and then can’t battle out of it.

  4. I just thought of something. Justin Huber is never going to get any sort of chance to prove himself as an everyday left fielder. Does anyone remember what kind of defensive catching prospect he was? Probably not great since he was moved off of the position, but the Mets were considering him to be their catcher of the future at one point so he couldn’t have been that bad.

    So does anyone else think that giving Huber some starts behind the dish would be a good idea? Or am I crazy? They could bring in Carlin as a late-inning replacement if his defense is a concern. At this point, I think it’s worth a shot. If anything, they need to find out if his bat is good enough to play more often.

    #2@John Conniff: I say we trade Clark back to Arizona for Leo “Lights Out” Rosales! I would like to see Myrow get a shot. The guy can hit.

  5. #3@Rain Delay: When we interviewed him he said his big problem was that he wasn’t getting singles – which is true. I think early in the count he’s really looking to drive the ball too much instead of taking singles to the opposite side of the field.

    Although this month he seems to be attempting to do that more but is still at .180.

    If he can do that a little more he will probably find himself in more hitter’s counts instead of how RM pointed out, a lot of two-strike counts.

  6. #2@John Conniff: I bet they’d deal Clark for almost anything. The only thing he brings to this club now is a great clubhouse presence, and it sounds like they might need that.

    #6@John Conniff: Hell, I want him looking to drive the ball early in the count.

  7. #7@Tom Waits: You do want him looking to drive the ball early but when he is looking at not swinging at anything unless its “middle-in” pitchers at the AAA level are talented enough to throw up slop on the outside and get ahead.

    I should have written he’s looking to pull everything rather than get a good swing on the pitch.

    One reason Headley turned it around was he started to look to hit the ball to the opposite field and forced the pitchers not to think throwing the first pitch was an automatic first strike.

  8. Antonelli’s BABIP is about 100 points below his career average. That’s about 12 hits. If you were to add 12 singles to his line it would be .273/.387/.406. That career average is including this season’s .205 BABIP, btw.