Padres Farm Report (21 May 08)

Triple-APortland 4, Tucson 1

Matt Antonelli: 0-for-3, 2 BB
Chase Headley: 1-for-4, 2B
Brian Myrow: 0-for-4
Chip Ambres (CF): 2-for-3, 2 2B, BB
Nick Hundley: 0-for-4
Michael Barrett (PH): 1-for-1, 2B
Will Venable (PH): 0-for-1
Cesar Ramos: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 SO
Carlos Guevara: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 0 SO (3 GO)
Adam Bass: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 0 SO
Jared Wells: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 SO

Antonelli returns to the leadoff spot after an extended stay at the bottom of the order. Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts examines Antonelli’s disappointing start to 2008 (h/t Didi) and believes, as do I, that his power surge last year was a bit of a fluke. I’ve often compared Antonelli to former Astros second baseman Bill Doran, while Rich in his response to my comments mentions Todd Walker and Mark Loretta, both of whom seem reasonable to me.

Comping is such a difficult thing to do because minor-league performances vary so much from year to year and depending on environments. I’m playing around with a “system” (I use the term very loosely, as it’s more art than science) that shows Antonelli to be similar to guys like Julio Cruz and Gerald Young based on his 2006 season, and similar to a young Barry Larkin or Jimmy Rollins based on 2007 numbers. Obviously there’s a significant gap between those two sets of comps.

Most likely, as Antonelli’s performance so far in ’08 seems to indicate, these represent extreme cases at either end of a center point that represents the type of production we should expect going forward. In other words, he’s probably not as bad as Cruz or Young (fringe big leaguers), but not as good as Larkin or Rollins (All Stars).

Obvious? Maybe, but it’s still useful to work through the process.

Double-A

No games scheduled in the Texas League on Tuesday.

Chad Huffman (.444/.557/.651) has been on fire in May, while Craig Cooper (.266/.309/.422) and Kyle Blanks (.274/.333/.384) have struggled relative to their April performances. On the pitching side, the big three of Will Inman, Matt Buschmann, and Steve Garrison continue to roll. Garrison is doing it the Cesar Ramos way, while Inman and Buschmann are each striking out more than one batter per inning.

High-A

No games scheduled in the Cal League on Tuesday.

Eric Sogard (.279/.389/.295) has cooled off in May after a blistering start. Rayner Contreras (.200/.286/.240) still hasn’t gotten it going. Mitch Canham (.381/.552/.452) is headed in the opposite direction — 16 walks against 3 strikeouts is just obnoxious (not that anyone minds). Among pitchers, Nathan Culp and Drew Miller have been throwing the ball well this month.

Low-AFort Wayne 6, Great Lakes 5

Luis Durango (CF): 0-for-4, BB
Andrew Cumberland (SS): 1-for-4, 2B, BB, SB, 2 E
Justin Baum: 0-for-4, BB
Yefri Carvajal: 2-for-5
Felix Carrasco: 1-for-5, HR
Shane Buschini: 0-for-1, 2 BB
Jeremy Hefner: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 SO
Matt Teague: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 1 SO

The Wizards drew nine walks on Tuesday… After a slow start, Carvajal has picked up his game. He’s hitting .328/.378/.403 so far in May.