Shadow Puppets
Tue, May 20, 2008
by Geoff Young
For those of you who might have “missed” Monday night’s game, here is a quick recap:
- The Cardinals scored their first runs of the game on a fly ball to deep left that Scott Hairston dropped into the stands for a two-run homer.
- They scored their next run on a bases-loaded HBP to Yadier Molina — yes, that Yadier Molina.
- They scored their next run on a homer by Cesar Izturis — yes, that Cesar Izturis.
- Then Albert Pujols homered, which is fine because, well, he’s Albert Pujols and that’s what he does.
- Then Todd Wellemeyer drove in a run — yes, that Todd — wait, who the heck is Todd Wellemeyer?
- The game ended.
I see the white flag. I’m not prepared to acknowledge it just yet, but I see it. My faith in the Padres despite all available evidence pointing me elsewhere has been contingent upon the team suddenly reversing course and not sucking. Well, I’m still waiting for them to hold up their end of the deal.
The reality is that very soon I’ll have to re-read some posts from 2002 or 2003 and figure out what we used to talk about back when the actual games weren’t worth discussing. Maybe I’ll break out some shadow puppets. I do a mean dove…
* * *
In other news, Jake Peavy has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a troublesome right elbow. An MRI on Monday revealed no ligament damage, which is good news. As I said in yesterday’s IGD, any on-field outcome against the Cardinals on Monday was secondary to Peavy’s health.
There is no timetable for Peavy’s return, although Tom Krasovic speculates that the 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner could miss up to six weeks. As far as I’m concerned, with the way this season is going, Peavy should take his sweet time and make sure everything is okay before returning. There’s no call for misplaced heroism here.
Left-hander Joe Thatcher takes Peavy’s spot on the roster. Thatcher, who started the season in San Diego, was optioned to Triple-A Portland just nine days ago due to extreme lack of effectiveness. Great, he’ll fit right in here.
* * *
I’ve got more thoughts on the Padres over at Viva El Birdos. Read ‘em if you’re so inclined…
Love the blog? Buy the book!
The Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual provides the most comprehensive analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres available anywhere... featuring a foreword by Padres Executive Vice President Paul DePodesta.
May 20, 2008 at 7:28 am
Are people watching a different replay of the Hairston non-catch than ESPN is showing this morning? Because you can clearly see the fan’s glove shuts Hairston’s glove. As bad as last night and the last seven weeks have been, he didn’t pull a Canseco. He had a Jeffrey Maier pulled on him.
May 20, 2008 at 7:41 am
I didn’t watch much of last night’s game. Once Ledezma drilled Molina, I effectively gave up.
It’s odd that I don’t feel compelled to watch every single inning of every game right now. I haven’t felt this ambivalent since the team moved into Petco. It’s oddly refreshing that when I get off of work, I can run errands or play video games instead of just watching the Padres.
Which isn’t to say that I don’t try to watch. But watching Ledezma implode with 2 outs in the inning and to hit someone to bring in a run, well, that was enough last night for me.
How is everyone else handling the ‘08 season?
May 20, 2008 at 7:42 am
In the channel 4 broadcast it looked like Hairston just closed his glove to early, He also had not reaction towards the fan or the Ump afterwards so it kind of seemed like he just missed it.
May 20, 2008 at 7:48 am
#2@Phantom: I’m handeling it ok but I find myself flipping to channel 4 checking the score instead of watch the game…
May 20, 2008 at 7:50 am
#4@Steve C: I’d probably do that if I lived in SD, but I use an archaic laptop strictly for watching Padres games. It’s too much effort to log onto that damn thing and turn the game back on.
On the other hand, I get text messages anytime there’s a change in the score and at the end of every inning. So I stay pretty well apprised of what’s going on.
May 20, 2008 at 8:04 am
I guess I picked the right season to move East!
I don’t anticipate trades making us better…I really still believe that Kouz and Bard will hit better…I really think the bully has some potential…I will really be upset if Peavy even thinks of stepping on a mound any sooner than June.
May 20, 2008 at 8:31 am
Judging by my own reactions I think I’ve already given up on the season-I didn’t even realize they played last night.
By the way, great move by the front office to keep Headley down in AAA this year. Why waste a year of service time on a last place team?
I wonder if that was part of the thinking all along.
They’ve got a lot of work to do with this team over the next couple of months.
May 20, 2008 at 8:31 am
It is what it is and they are what they are, so I just catch the score when I can to instead of watching an entire game. What can you do. I’ve entered the dreaded state of indifference.
I assume they will play better but they are in such a hole, I doubt they could climb out even if they were the 98 Yankees or 94/95 49ers.
Towers was visible angry last night according to the UT. Said head will roll if intensity does not increase. Guess he’s sill in frustration mode, like our esteemed host.
Meanwhile, Geoff, you may want to review this youtube vid to brush of on your hand puppet technique (office safe).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WlbQPmXg08
May 20, 2008 at 8:54 am
Good post, Geoff. I liked the line about Thatcher fitting right in. I think we’ll need all the humor we can get this season. In fact, I think Padres Management should employ some by requiring all of the nonperformers on the team (management included) to wear red foam clown noses as part of the field uniform. Continue to stink? Fine, you get the rainbow suspenders now too. And so on until they can earn the right to wear just the regulation Padres uniform. It might require clearance from the commissioner but I think he’d agree they are playing like a bunch of clowns and permit it.
Yahoo sports has a piece on Towers getting angry: http://tinyurl.com/3suz9x
JJ
May 20, 2008 at 9:13 am
I hope this season turns around or the 2009 Ducksnorts book is going to be a really tough sell for Geoff. Poor guy is going to have to relive this year again when he writes that thing …. ugh.
May 20, 2008 at 9:39 am
#9@JJ: “They’ve won 16 times in seven weeks, scored two runs or fewer in almost half their games” Ugh.
May 20, 2008 at 9:51 am
anyone think we should take a shot at acquiring Victorino?
May 20, 2008 at 9:59 am
#12@Loren: I would love that idea, but I don’t know what the Phils would want in return. Maybe pitching?
Anyone do CY for Victorino (CY would be a terrible idea for Philly, but let them figure that out)?
May 20, 2008 at 10:17 am
#13@Phantom: Straight up? No way!
May 20, 2008 at 10:20 am
Scott Miller of CBS Sports has an article up about the Padres:
http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10834026/rss
Not really that great of an article as he blames “Moneyball” and Alderson and DePodesta for the Padres lack of team speed. Even stranger, when talking about the 2004 draft debacle, he brings up the players that the Padres could have taken — Verlander, Weaver, Drew, Hughes….and Blake DeWitt. Kind of weird.
May 20, 2008 at 10:20 am
13 & 14
Maybe Maddux for Victorino? Wolf might be better - let him return to the place he was a star at
May 20, 2008 at 10:23 am
#13@Phantom: I doubt they’ll trade CY now that Peavy is hurt. Even if they are going to be in a semi-rebuilding mode, no one in the organization wants to lose more than 100 games. Withouth Peavy and CY, they’re losing 100 games, minimum.
Would anyone trade Kouz for Victorino straight up? As bad as Kouz has been this season, he’s a huge upgrade over Pedro Feliz in Philly. Victorino leading off and playing CF for the Pads wouldn’t be a bad thing. Headley could move back to 3B. Gerut could play LF for now.
May 20, 2008 at 10:42 am
#17@JMAR: Love that idea. Kouz for Victornio would be great. Wolf for Victorino would also work.
May 20, 2008 at 10:45 am
Oops, I thought it was an off day. Silly me.
Yeah, it’s gotten to that point, and I’m glad I missed the debacle last night. I was thinking of skipping today’s game since Wil ‘Danger’ Ledezma was going to start.
The good part is I get to listen to the Padres tonight.
The bad part is I get to listen to the Padres one night earlier than planned.
I can’t believe how badly are the hitters trying to make contact. I can see how Greene would be but Kouz is really tanking his walk rate. Hairston should really try to strike out looking more often, he may get lucky and get walked, that dugout must be very drafty whenever Kouz, Hairston and Greene are batting.
I don’t see what the Padres can get for P-Mac/Huber. P-Mac is still third on the team on OPS, I think and he walks as often as he strikes out, so there is value there, and he looks better than Klesko out there (yeah, really scrapping the bottom here).
Why trade CY? He’s young and has a good, affordable contract.
I’d showcase P-Mac and see if he’ll hit a lot better and then see what Seattle is going to want for him to DH there - Jeremy Reed is supposedly done there. I don’t know what the Cubs are doing with Pie/Murton but let’s try to get those guy again, the reason why I hope the Edmonds experiment works for the Cubs.
We’ll see what happens at the end of May and re-evaluate.
I just want the team to get to .500 by end of June and winning series needs to happen now.
May 20, 2008 at 10:46 am
#17@JMAR: I’m doing some research on possible moves the Padres could make, and this is one I’ve identified as well. Could help both clubs.
May 20, 2008 at 10:53 am
#19@Didi: I don’t think the Padres can get anything for P-Mac. CY’s trade value is quite high, especially because of the way his contract are structured.
Would anyone do CY for Andrew Miller? CY would do well in Dolphin Stadium and he could help them solidify that rotation for a stretch run. He’s also signed to a relatively club-friendly deal that the Marlins could deal with.
May 20, 2008 at 10:56 am
I would love a Wolf for Victornio trade, for some reaon I just really dont want the Pads to move Kouz.
May 20, 2008 at 10:58 am
Any chance Kouz is included in the trade deals?
Iguchi - Indians
Maddux - Cubs/Red Sox
Wolf - Brewers
Kouz - Indians? Philly?
Giles - Seattle? Kansas City?
McAnulty - Seattle (for Reed?)
Had a weird thought last night about trading Kouz, moving Headley back to 3B and (this is where the pipe dream comes in) spending money on Adam Dunn in LF.
May 20, 2008 at 11:05 am
#22@Steve C:
#23@Loren:
My guess is that Kouz’s low trade value will keep him around. There’s not much reason to trade a 400K a year player who has had success and can still contribute (hitting LHP) if all you get back is some 27 year old from AA. The team absolutely should be considering where he fits in their plans; many people have felt all along that Headley shouldn’t have been pushed to LF.
May 20, 2008 at 11:09 am
#23@Loren: Reed for PMAC ? I don’t think we could procure an old bat and glove for this guy.
May 20, 2008 at 11:13 am
21: Oh, you are right about that. I’m merely saying that to suggest that the Padres got nothing to lose just to start him everyday now and see if his hitting will improve. He seems to have better approach with his ABs than some other hitters right now. Why not build some value into him if possible. If it doesn’t work, I’d be sad but the move won’t cost anything. Then, try to trade him. Even then I don’t see how much he’ll fetch.
I don’t think much of Miller for CY - I don’t think the Marlins would want to trade him for more expensive contract.
JJ & GY, Feliz is the best defensive third sacker in the NL last few years. I don’t know how much the Phillies are looking to improve their offense as Kouz is not lighting the balls with fire either.
May 20, 2008 at 11:16 am
Yeah I think they need to look into the market for Kouz. Kouz is definitely a middle of the order bat against LHP, but against RHP he is looking more and more like a #7 hitter(hello Pedro Feliz!)
If they can get a pre-arbitration #3 starter for him…..what are they waiting for? If they can get a .750OPS pre arbitration CF for him….what is the hold up?
If I were KT and Philly was willing to do Kouz for Victorino(why would they though?) I’d drive Kouz to the airport myself.
May 20, 2008 at 11:16 am
BTW, the Aztecs are playing the Rebels in game 1 of the MWC today. They should win this game after losing 4 games to the Dirtbags and the Titans to close out the season.
May 20, 2008 at 11:18 am
#23@Loren: Possibly, though the timing is bad. I’m still looking over contracts, etc., but here are some preliminary thoughts:
Potential destinations for Iguchi (players I’d want to look at in return in parens):
–Cardinals (Anthony Reyes)
–White Sox (Brian Anderson)
–Angels (Brandon Wood, obviously not straight up)
Kouzmanoff:
–Phillies (Shane Victorino)
–Astros (Fernando Nieve, Bud Miller)
–Twins (Kevin Slowey, Trevor Plouffe, Denard Span)
Giles and/or Wolf:
–Indians (Adam Miller, Ryan Miller, David Huff)
–Mets (Oliver Perez, Nicholas Carr, Angel Calero)
–Braves (Brent Lillibridge, Jordan Schafer, Thomas Hanson)
Again, these aren’t trade proposals per se, just possible destinations and targets worth exploring.
I don’t see Iguchi or Wolf ending the season in San Diego. Any deal involving Kouz would have to net serious returns, as he’s still a potential part of the future puzzle. With Giles, everything depends on how much salary the Pads are willing to eat and the terms of his no-trade clause (which I haven’t examined yet).
May 20, 2008 at 11:19 am
If I get to make the decisions there are only 6 untouchables in the entire organization:
Peavy
CY
Gonzalez
Headley
Antonelli
Latos
As a general rule, I don’t trade top 25 prospects.
May 20, 2008 at 11:22 am
According to the idiots on 1090, so take it with a grain of salt-Giles is able to block only 8 teams. They had the list, it was a weird list. Players usually have only big market teams, or teams they think would be interested.
Giles seemed to basically choose cities he didn’t like. If I remember correctly he has the Twins on there.
May 20, 2008 at 11:26 am
Doesn’t seem like Kouz would bring much until and unless he gets his performance up toward last year’s level a bit. Right now he’s young and affordable, but only a platoon-type guy with a rep for poor D, and I don’t think that would bring much value back in return. Maybe he can get hot for a month and then we can unload him to a contending team?
May 20, 2008 at 11:34 am
#26@Didi: “lighting the balls with fire.”
That’s one way to shake up the clubhouse.
May 20, 2008 at 11:35 am
#32@Pat: I wouldn’t necessarily want to “unload” Kouz, but he’s definitely movable in the right deal, esp. with Headley waiting in the wings.
May 20, 2008 at 11:37 am
#30@Mark Ase: I’d add Inman and Miller, but otherwise completely agree.
#31@Mark Ase: Yeah, we talked his list in the Farm Report thread. Ken Rosenthal doesn’t have Minnesota there. His version is Baltimore, Boston, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Florida, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Washington.
May 20, 2008 at 11:40 am
#31@Mark Ase: Giles can block a trade to the following clubs:
Baltimore, Boston, Detroit and Tampa Bay, Florida, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Washington.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....th,-energy
No clue why he picked those 8.
May 20, 2008 at 11:42 am
That’s even more odd then I remember:
Washington? Giles doesn’t exactly fit Bowden’s profile and between Milledge, Pena, Kearns, the Meat Hook, Dukes and Mackowiak….I think they are probably pretty well set lol.
May 20, 2008 at 11:46 am
36
Because, with the exception of Boston and maybe Florida, they sucked bad when he had his new deal done at the end of the 05 season?
Since I don’t know as much about Victorino as I’d like to, does he fit the mantra of a leadoff hitter as well as a money ball player?
May 20, 2008 at 11:47 am
33: LOL. In that same veins, we have not seen anybody getting any shaving cream in the face during the after game interview this season, have we?
Maybe, we need a cream-to-face meter here, Geoff, to measure how well the season is going….and balls-on-fire one to measure how badly it’s heading.
May 20, 2008 at 11:49 am
Antonelli made this list. Hint…not so good.
http://baseballanalysts.com/ar.....r_su_2.php
May 20, 2008 at 11:52 am
#37@Mark Ase: It does seem to be based on “I really really really don’t want to play in these places.”
If we had some salary to send to Washington, Kearns might be a buy-low candidate. But it would take 18 million to keep him the next 2 seasons.
May 20, 2008 at 12:00 pm
#40@Didi: At least they didn’t write him off. Antonelli’s ISO is still good.
May 20, 2008 at 12:04 pm
#34@Geoff Young: Right; it just seems to me his value is down a bit at the moment.
May 20, 2008 at 12:07 pm
hes from Southern Cali, San Diego area….and all those teams are located pretty far east.
so maybe its just me but it seems pretty obvious thats why he picked those certain teams.
May 20, 2008 at 12:08 pm
“Baseball Analysts” uh huh……I they missed the statistics lesson where BA negatively affects SLG %. Add .100 points to his BA and his SLG % is magically pretty good.
Suspects don’t walk more then they K.
Mark
May 20, 2008 at 12:10 pm
re 38:
Those no trade lists can be updated before every season in most contracts, especially the ones like Giles where he has a different number of teams each season.
May 20, 2008 at 12:14 pm
#45@Mark Ase:
Sean Burroughs thanks you for your support.
May 20, 2008 at 12:14 pm
#44@Ian C.: If your intention is not to get traded, though, you don’t waste no-trade spots on teams that aren’t likely to want you. If it was just the East Coast, Detroit and Milwaukee would have been replaced by the 2 New York clubs.
May 20, 2008 at 12:19 pm
re 47:
Maybe I should have said:
Suspects don’t walk more then they K and have ISO over .100.
I think we all get the point though.
May 20, 2008 at 12:20 pm
#46@Mark Ase: Yeah, that’s exactly how Nevin’s was structured.
#47@Geoff Young: I still wonder if something happened physically or mentally to Burroughs. Look at what he did as an 18 year old in the Midwest League.
74 walks, 59 strikeouts, 359/464/479.
That screams future superstar. It wasn’t just base hits, there was some power in a rough league, and that’s a LOT of walks.
May 20, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Sorry I haven’t dropped in for a while, but ignoring all things Padres has been required for my sanity this year. I was in Chicago on business, went to one of the games and was roundly ridiculed by very knowledgeable fans.
B-r-u-t-a-l.
May 20, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#50@Tom Waits: Burroughs had everything you look for in a young hitter. His failure to develop still baffles me.
May 20, 2008 at 1:06 pm
#52@Geoff Young:I think it was a mix of immaturity and the Padres trying to change his swing so that he would hit for power.
May 20, 2008 at 1:10 pm
#53@Steve C: The problem with that theory is that Burroughs’ numbers started to decline immediately after his first pro year, long before the Padres did anything to his swing. He never had a campaign that was close to his 1999 season.
If anything, they should have tinkered with his swing in 2000 or 2001, when concerns about his power surfaced.
May 20, 2008 at 1:15 pm
#52@Geoff Young: count me as a paying passenger on that train!!
May 20, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Dark horse trade possibility for Khalil: Kansas City. They’re only 2.5 out of the division, 4.5 out of the WC, their SS are so bad that even a struggling Greene is a massive improvement, and their front office made some win-soon moves last winter.
May 20, 2008 at 1:17 pm
#40@Didi: We all knew that power was a fluke…when he was drafted we talked about his lack of power…Can he be a good 2 bagger/2 hitter? Yup. Does he show any real power potential to be a 3 hitter? Not really.
May 20, 2008 at 1:37 pm
#54@Tom Waits: I was more looking at his pro #’s
2002 .271/.317/.323
2003 .286/.352/.402
2004 .298/.348/.365
2005 .250/.318/.299
Didn’t they start to mess with his swing after 2004?
May 20, 2008 at 1:57 pm
#58@Steve C: They sent him down in 2002 to work on hitting for power. If they messed with his swing, it never showed up during the game, he still had that inside-out defensive stroke.
Any changes made to his approach in the bigs don’t explain why he declined, albeit not hugely, in the minors.
He’s been out of the system for a while now and still hasn’t hit for power even in the minors.
May 20, 2008 at 1:59 pm
#59@Tom Waits: Bleh my bad I thought it was after 2994 because they got roberts to hit leadoff.
May 20, 2008 at 2:00 pm
#57@Coronado Mike: I didn’t know that Antonelli’s power was a fluke. An isolated slugging of 185 is hard to sustain over a whole season. He’s still at 136 now.
He’s not going to be Jeff Kent, but it’s no stretch to see 15 HR, with 60 total XBH, in his major league future.
May 20, 2008 at 2:13 pm
#56@Tom Waits: Would DeJesus and one of their crappy shortstops do the trick?
May 20, 2008 at 2:18 pm
#62@Geoff Young: Just get me DeJesus, please! We could run someone crappy out there to SS the rest of the season ourselves.
May 20, 2008 at 2:21 pm
#63@Pat: Yeah, I guess if the Giants can go with Brian Bocock, we could go with Sean Kazmar. Sigh…
May 20, 2008 at 2:28 pm
#49@Mark Ase: I don’t think that writeup on him was particularly negative, it just pointed out, probably correctly, that Antonelli’s power surge last season might have been a fluke. I don’t think anyone expects him to hit 20 HR’s in the majors playing in Petco.
Baseball Prospectus used the PECOTA projection system to try to project the future value of prospects. It likes Antonelli alright, ranking him as the 3rd overall prospect behind Eric Patterson of the Cubs and Chris Coghlan of the Marlins. He’s also ranked 9th overall in all players 25 and younger (a Cuban, Alexi Ramirez is ranked ahead of him but he uses Cuban stats some I’m not counting him).
However, the same system hates Headley, ranking him way down near the bottom, behind such notables as David Freese, Rico Washington, Blake DeWitt and Joel Guzman. The author does note that the projection seems low, mainly because Headley was punished on last season stats since it was a hitter’s league, he’s not really young for his league, and his BABIP was unsustainably high.
May 20, 2008 at 2:30 pm
#64@Geoff Young: If they did decide to trade Greene and could get a really good, young outfielder in return or even a young top-of-the-rotation starter, I’d say go for it and play Luis Rodriguez at SS once he’s healthy. A contact hitter like Rodriguez might even be a welcome addition considering how much this team strikes out.
May 20, 2008 at 2:37 pm
#63@Pat: I’m not sold on DeJesus, especially not for Khalil. He hit .260 last season with 6 HR’s and 10 SB’s, playing nearly everyday (157 games). We already have a guy (Jody Gerut) that can probably put up much better numbers than that.
May 20, 2008 at 2:40 pm
#61@Tom Waits: In his 3 seasons at Wake, his hr totals were 2, 5, 11…with metal bats.
That does not point to a guy who will hit for power…I would guess that 5-10 HR’s in MLB might be a better number…just guessing though.
May 20, 2008 at 2:44 pm
#62@Geoff Young: In a heartbeat, if they’d give up DeJesus.
Then trade Bell to ATL for Lillibridge to play SS?
May 20, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Wow. I thought the Padres might be an 83-win team this season, but I’m really scared we’re looking at 100 losses. It’s bad. As much as I think Towers has done a terrific job as a talent evaluator, two recent decisions really make me wonder. The first, most obvious one, is his notion that Edmonds would be good this year.
BP said it best, in its 2008 Prospectus, about Edmonds “This won’t end well” and it didn’t. To even the casual observer it was obvious he was done last year, and putting him in a huge ballpark and expecting him to produce offensively as a #4/5 hitter was just foolish.
The other really big miscue by Towers came last year, when he let Joakim Soria go away in the rule 5 draft in order to pick up Kevin Cameron. Cameron will never be a good or even remotely reliable pitcher; his control is just too awful.
Soria’s 2008 line, currently, in the tougher league and pitching high-leverage innings: 17 innings, 5 hits, 2 BB, 20 Ks, 1.04 ERA. (BP called this one, too, BTW, predicting Soria to be successful). Those numbers are insane. If we still had him around we would have a successor for Hoffman or an intriguing arm for the rotation. I know it’s hindsight, but considering SD kept Cameron on the active roster all year, without ever bothering to use him in any important situations, doesn’t it seem reasonable that they could have done the same with Soria?
Other than that, this just isn’t a well-constructed team. There’s little of value to trade -Giles might get a B-level prospect, same with Wolf, while the guys who would get good return (Gonzalez, Greene) are probably not going to go anywhere, simply because there’s no replacement for Greene and Gonzalez is a good player under contract for a few more years at a favorable price.
As a fan, I’m disappointed; I could take losing if I saw a light at the end of the tunnel. But this team could be bad for a long time; the starting center-fielder right now is batting 195 with a 298 OBP. Bard and Greene both look awful. Kouzmanoff is never going to be an even adequate 3B. Peavy’s hurt. Hairston is a disaster at the plate and in the field. It’s ugly. I wish I had something more than Chase Headley to wish upon, but I’m afraid that’s all I have.
Do the Padres do the risky, high-reward thing? That is, trade a few major pieces, suffer in the short-term, and come out ahead? Or do they make some middling moves like trading Iguchi for some B-level suspect and hoping that somehow it all works out. I’m guessing the latter, and I think the former is necessary.
May 20, 2008 at 2:47 pm
#2@Phantom:
I’ve definitely watched less Padres this year. It’s just not an enjoyable experience. Why subject yourself to such pain and bad baseball? I’ve noticed I have more time to do other stuff, like watch the netflix movies that piled up with my wife.
May 20, 2008 at 2:47 pm
#68@Coronado Mike: The Padres changed the load in his swing between 06 and 07. I agree that there were substantial questions, but “fluke” would be a ton of doubles that he legged out, not the consistent hard contact he made, with 20 balls leaving the yard. And his power this year has actually been good, looked at in isolation.
May 20, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Where does DeJesus project in this lineup? Also would you rather get him or Gaithright?
May 20, 2008 at 2:49 pm
LA Times story discussing the upcoming fire sale
http://www.latimes.com/sports/.....9612.story
May 20, 2008 at 2:50 pm
That saddest thing about this whole situation is that the Padres have almost no young players to fill the major league roster if Towers is able to trade away some of the veterans. As good as Towers has been (and don’t get me wrong, he might be the best GM at finding underappreciated or blocked talent and acquiring them) his near-total failure at drafting and developing young players has really cost the team the past 4 seasons. If he just drafted adequately the Padres might be on a 4 year playoff run (although it would have hard to make the playoffs in 2004) and also more then one measly playoff win. It’s too bad that the Padres best 4 year run of all-time (and maybe ever) was squandered by incompetence and cheapness by management.
May 20, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Assuming the first quarter of ‘08 does not represent a new, reduced level of ability for Greene, DeJesus is not nearly as valuable as Khalil.
Bell for any potential starting middle infielder would be a good deal, though, as I suspect Bell’s peak will have passed by the time we contend again.
May 20, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Recording the Padre games and watching on fast forward really emphasizes how lethargic this team is. You see the opposition get a lead and then inning after inning of the Padres maybe getting a guy on base but then it’s just batter after batter making quick outs. It’s bad enough they’re losing but it just seems like there’s no fight in this team. Maybe it’s a case of selective memory but I seem to remember the pre-Petco bad teams were at least competitive. Bochy would try to be a manager, making pitching changes based on matchups, stealing bases, bunting guys over, etc. They still sucked but it was at least a little more interesting to watch.
The best explanation I heard for Burroughs was that he matured early and was always bigger and stronger than his peers, which is why he put up big numbers early but once everyone caught up to him physically he couldn’t count on that anymore.
May 20, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Depo with a fun blog entry today …
http://itmightbedangerous.blog.....ravel.html
… he’s out doing some scouting … who knew?
May 20, 2008 at 2:58 pm
The only issue I have with tradding bell is that it leaves this team with meredith as its closer for 09 with no 8th or 7th inning guys unless Thatcher rembers how to pitch and hensley heals up…
May 20, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Depo with a fun blog entry today …
http://tinyurl.com/67nuqs
… he’s out on the scouting trail … who knew?
May 20, 2008 at 3:01 pm
#73@Loren: DeJesus, easily. I have little faith in Gathright.
#76@Lance Richardson: A starting CF with above-average offense who plays strong defense and under control until 2011 would seem to be as valuable as a starting SS with average offense who plays strong defense and is under control only through next season.
May 20, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I gotta agree that DeJesus for KG straight up seems like we’re selling low on him. Does the extra defense in CF make up for the lack of defense and power we’d suffer for trading him?
I’m personally not convinced that 08 is indicative of his true talent level. Then again, he’s 1 year away from FA and may be difficult to sign long term.
Gathright seems the more intriguing player, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to hit at the MLB level.
May 20, 2008 at 3:03 pm
#66@JMAR: Rodriguez doesn’t excite me at all.
#69@Tom Waits: Lillibridge is having a terrible season, but I still like him.
#70@David Coonce: Soria’s rapid ascent still amazes me. Most guys just don’t make the jump from Low-A ball to the big leagues at all, let alone seamlessly.
#73@Loren: DeJesus, unless car-jumping becomes a usable baseball skill.
#75@Schlom: This isn’t accurate on many levels. The system is in better shape than it has been in many years. Also, management deserves at least some credit for the Padres’ recent success.
May 20, 2008 at 3:03 pm
#78@Steve C: Easier to find a closer than a starting SS, though.
May 20, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Weird question but any of these spare parts we are thinking of trading, would any of them be of any interest to the Red Sox if our target was Coco Crisp?
We mentioned Khalil Greene, Julio Lugo is nothing special, Boston could use an upgrade perhaps?
May 20, 2008 at 3:10 pm
they said the same thing about 2B and 3B a then they traded Barfield, not saying that it was a bad move just saying there has been little to no production out of 2B since then…
May 20, 2008 at 3:12 pm
#84@Loren: Crisp would be a good addition if the Pads thought that they would be ready to compete again next year but if they go the fire sale route it will prob be 2 or 3 years until they will be ready to compete for the division title again…
May 20, 2008 at 3:13 pm
#81@Phantom: It depends on who you get to replace Khalil. Both are about average hitters with good defense. They just hit differently.
#82@Geoff Young: Ah, my eyes! But seriously, in response to #70, the problem was who the Padres decided to protect INSTEAD of Soria, even though they knew other teams had scouted him in Mexico.
May 20, 2008 at 3:14 pm
#86 @steve
Unless Venerable/Huffman are our answer at CF we will need SOMEONE to man that area until Hunter comes up. Coco at least provides incredible defense and speed for a few years until we can get a better determination on Hunter/someone else
May 20, 2008 at 3:18 pm
#88@Loren: I agree but why burn Greene on him? when he’s not going to be on the team when it turns itself arround, I would rather use greenie as a chip to get a young player who the padres will have control over for multiple years.
May 20, 2008 at 3:18 pm
#85@Steve C: It might not take Bell to get Lillibridge, anyway. I’d prefer that it be Maddux or Wolf going to ATL. But just because we haven’t found a 2b doesn’t mean that it’s not a deeper position overall, or make a 1 inning, bases empty pitcher harder to find than a 150 game competent shortstop.
May 20, 2008 at 3:20 pm
#90@Tom Waits: I agree with you I just hate to open one hole to fix another…
May 20, 2008 at 3:23 pm
#91@Steve C: Yeah, it would help if we were deeper in the high minors.
May 20, 2008 at 3:24 pm
#82@Geoff Young: Of course the system is in better shape than it has been as they had no where to go but up. I agree that management did a great job putting the 2004-2007 teams together but if they just didn’t waste draft pick after draft pick they obviously would have been a lot better. Obviously the 2004 debacle cost them millions of dollars in lost revenues, we all know that. But the 1st round picks in 2003 and 2005 weren’t any better. There were plenty of good players picked after the Padres chose their players, any number of them could have helped the Padres win one more game last season or maybe a playoff series in the past four seasons. That doesn’t even get into all the rest of the wasted draft years. Just because Towers makes awesome trades doesn’t absolve him from any blame in other areas.
I think the building of the Padres team in the few seasons was one of the great accomplishments of any GM in recent history — you just don’t find winning teams with low payrolls that aren’t built primarily from within. It just amazes me that Towers was able to put together a winner with a low payroll with 2 home-grown young players. It’s easy to have a good low payroll team when it’s filled with your own players, it’s an entirely different thing when it’s all older players.
May 20, 2008 at 3:25 pm
#92@Tom Waits: Yeah I think they are atleast two years out before they are at that point…
May 20, 2008 at 3:26 pm
#87@Tom Waits: No, that’s true about Soria. The Padres clearly misread him.
#88@Loren: If the price is right for Crisp, I’d make a move. But he’s purely a stopgap measure, so I wouldn’t want to give up much — maybe Wolf, who isn’t necessarily well suited for Fenway. I honestly don’t see a real good fit with Boston in terms of trade possibilities.
May 20, 2008 at 3:30 pm
#93@Schlom:
Right, but this isn’t quite the same as “…squandered by incompetence and cheapness by management.” A guy who “makes awesome trades” generally isn’t incompetent.
May 20, 2008 at 3:30 pm
#66@JMAR: If you look at his career, he’s basically a league average hitter, much like Khalil is (using OPS+, they’re certainly not the same type of hitter). He would bring some speed, I believe, and plays a good CF from what I’ve heard. They’re basically the same age and price, which is a wash. I don’t think we would lose on that deal. I certainly don’t expect any sort of significant growth from Khalil after having watched him these past 5 years and DeJesus seems to be quite consistent as well.
But I guess it’s a question of perceived need. I feel OF defense is a priority in Petco, moreso than at SS, and we are sorely lacking there at the moment. We do not appear to have any CF prospects who are ready to go for next year. Of course we don’t have any prospects for SS either. Which position would be easier to fill via FA next off-season? Not sure on because I can’t get to MLB4U at work to see what the market is like.
May 20, 2008 at 3:34 pm
#96@Geoff Young: Maybe he just got really really lucky a bunch of times
May 20, 2008 at 3:34 pm
#73@Loren: DeJesus is a much better offensive player, imo. Gathright is a better base stealer, but I’m more concerned with their D than stealing bases. I’s guess Gathright would have to be the second coming of Willie Mays to make up the offensive gap DeJesus has on him though.
May 20, 2008 at 3:36 pm
#96@Geoff Young: What would you call the 2004 draft debacle other then incompetent or cheapness? Everyone knew that Bush wasn’t the top talent that year but they went ahead and took him anyway. Take Jared Weaver there and they win the division last season and maybe a playoff series in 2005-2006. Same thing with most of their other draft years — and remember that Khalil was a senior in 2002 and had zero leverage so the Padres were able to keep his signing bonus down. Take a look at this list of all the Padres 1st round draft picks:
http://www.baseball-reference......ype=junreg
I don’t know if that’s the worst draft history of any team — I suspect the Pirates and the Royals have drafted even worse — but what else can you call it? Even the Giants, who would sometimes sign free agents so they would purposely lose their 1st round pick have drafted better. Cheapness drove their picks in 2004 and 2007 which were potential franchise changing picks. What would call the other years?
May 20, 2008 at 3:37 pm
#76@Lance Richardson: Assuming the first quarter of ‘08 does not represent a new, reduced level of ability for Greene, DeJesus is not nearly as valuable as Khalil.”
Based on what criteria? Is Greene that much better at SS than DeJesus is in CF, or do you feel SS is that much harder to fill? Offensively they seem fairly well matched. Khalil much more power but horrendous OBP skills. DeJesus doesn’t hit HR’s like KG does, but is much better at getting on base and hitting for average. CF is also a premium defensive position, which I believe he plays passably well, as is SS.
May 20, 2008 at 3:40 pm
#100@Schlom: Alot of experts had Bush in thier top ten that year.
What do you expect KT to do, he had the first pick was told that he could pick anyone who he wanted and literally a few days before the draft he was told he could not pick Weaver or Drew (who he had been scouting heavily) because Moores did not want to pay over slot.
If you want to kill KT on the draft thats fine it was never his strong suit but the Bush debacle was not his fault.
May 20, 2008 at 3:46 pm
I am starting to question how soon we build for. Initially, it seemed like 2009, to bring up some youngsters to build around CY, AGon and Peavy, with Bell and Meredith in the pen. KG, KK may be around, depending on negotiations and development.
Now I am starting to think we might be a 2010/2011 team. This means trading everyone: Peavy, CY and AGon, loading up on prospects, paying for draft slots, assembling a team that could start to gel in 2011, be competitive in 2012. My fear is that if we don’t do that, we lose prime years/contract years from those core guys, and when the system develops, they are gone or tail end of their contracts.
I don’t study our minor leagues as closely as many on this page, but I don’t see a ton of guys “clearly ready next year” stickers on them. The only way I see us competing successfully next year, not dependent on young guys suddenly getting ready fast, is paying a lot for FA’s to build a team around Peavy and AGon, and whoever else develops on the team (like KK) or in the system. But this would be big money: 1-2 maybe 3 outfielders, though not all top level. An impact infielder; a 2/3 starter; some insurance in the pen. Those bodies alone could be $60-70 million year marginal salary. I doubt the FO will do that, so we are back at being a 2010/11 team, or, worse, crossing our fingers and hoping guys get better fast next year. Crossing our fingers did not work well this year, so not excited about it for next.
May 20, 2008 at 3:53 pm
#102@Steve C: I did say that it might have been because of ownership cheapness. However, he is the GM so ultimately it is his responsibility.
The fact that the Padres were so close to being really good is what makes the past four years so frustrating. I think we all agree that 2007 was much more painful then 2004 even though the end result was the same (home in October). The same thing with 2006 vs. 2005 (the Cardinals were really good and Padres really bad in 2005 with the opposite true in 2006). Any good draft from 2000-2005 (except 2002) might have had a huge impact on the final result. The same might have happened if the FO would have spent some money on a 5th starter during that time.
As I said above, I think Towers did a great job building the major league team without spending much money or getting anything from his own drafted players — imagine what he would do if he replaced that buffoon in charge of the Yankees. That really is my greatest fear, that he finally says enough with Moores and goes takes over the Yankees. DePodesta might be able to take over but I don’t he’ll be as good as Towers.
May 20, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Zero depth at Catching and Outfield positions
The Padres outfield depth looked awfully thin this Winter. They were basically one injury to Edmonds and/or Giles away from being in a lot of trouble. Hence, Edmonds was a bust and we, as a supposed pennant contending team end up with Jody Gerut starting in center in May. Are you kidding ?
We lose Barrett in April and K.T indicates that he may try to find a veteran backup catcher. He does nothing. Bard burns out in the middle of May. Therefore in May, we bring up a 28 year old catcher (Carlin), after bringing in Morton from AA, who wasn’t even invited to 2008 Spring camp. Are you kidding ?
May 20, 2008 at 4:02 pm
#105@JP: if he was kidding, then it def. wasnt funny.
May 20, 2008 at 4:02 pm
#105@JP: I think one defense of KT’s handling of the catching situation is simply that Bard played like 90% of the games down the stretch last year (maybe more) and performed very well. Given that, and since it was early in the season, it would seem reasonable that Bard could handle the load. Oh well. Best laid plans….
May 20, 2008 at 4:18 pm
#104@Schlom: I have been thinking about your distaste with Estes getting any sort of crack at a starting spot, being the retread he is, and you in the back of my mind I know you are exactly right. However, you should absolutely equally as flabergasted (if not more) with Jody Gerut being the only centerfield option in this organization for anything more than a week or so. You could have also been more than miffed when the only centerfield option in Sept. 07 is Brady Clark.
It backs up your earlier point about how thin the system TRULY is.
May 20, 2008 at 4:22 pm
#100@Schlom: A bad plan. Incompetence generally results in firings. A bad plan generally results in developing a better plan, which is what has happened.
May 20, 2008 at 4:27 pm
#108@JP: I was very disappointed in the signing of Gerut. He’s still a better option then Estes because he’s actually been good in the past 10 years but generally I’m not a fan of picking up guys that were deemed useless by the Pirates. I’ve already fought that battle.
With the exception of the old, useless retreads like Estes I’m not blaming Towers too much for the roster construction — there is only so much you can do with a low payroll. As the Cardinals are proving this season, sometimes you luck out when you fill your team with older crap. There isn’t much difference between the Cardinals roster and the Padres with the exception of Pujols (of course, they don’t have a Peavy either). Ryan Ludwick’s minor league career is worse then P-Mac’s but sometimes you get lucky. However, that’s still no excuse for not having any young players worth anything. Throughout the Padres history, they’ve always been one of the worst, if not the worst, team at developing their own players. That fact, more then payroll, is why they’ve been the worst franchise in baseball since 1969.
May 20, 2008 at 4:30 pm
#109@Geoff Young: Has it? Nothing changed last season.
May 20, 2008 at 4:48 pm
#110@Schlom: With that said, there is nothing wrong with giving Estes or a old vet a spot start in case of injury or something like that. There are plenty of cases where scrapheapers make a difference but when they end up being your only option at AAA for call up, that hurts.
#107@Marsh: #106@Ian C.: Understood, but what if Bard were to get hurt in April or May (which he actually did) and then what ? In the past, KT has been pretty darn good about bringing in a decent catcher on the fly. I am miffed as to why he didn’t someone in this time.
May 20, 2008 at 4:56 pm
#37@Mark Ase: Probably because they are too far away from Giles’ coast of preference.
May 20, 2008 at 5:02 pm
#110 Schlom; You are not a fan of picking up players deemed useless by the Pirates??? That is too funny!
May 20, 2008 at 5:36 pm
I would not give Khalil Green away in this firesale unless the return was huge. He is one of the best defensive shortstops I have seen in three decades of ball. Its not unusual for a guy to hit the skids like this for a 1/4 or 1/2 a season. He’ll bounce back.
May 20, 2008 at 5:37 pm
#86@Steve C: Why is Crisp still coveted by anyone?
May 20, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Newsflash: The Aztecs lost to the Rebels 6-2 in the ninth on a bases loaded 2-run hit and another flyball that got lost in the sun that scored 2 more runs.
Crappy day getting crappier.
May 20, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Waits is right. Kouzmanoff should be given another full year. I know he looks more and more like Wes Helms but I am not sure yet. I sure like the way KK hits to all fields and this year, though the bat this year is powerless, he seems to be more patient at the plate and better again at fighting balls off and shooting into right instead of pulling off. I think the homeruns will come again like last year.
May 20, 2008 at 5:46 pm
116: Because we are scrapping the bottom of the barrel for….anything.
Crisp shouldn’t be in the discussion for anything. He’s not going to be better than Gerut/Hairston in CF.
All this suppositions and conjecturings is making me hungry.
May 20, 2008 at 5:51 pm
#93@Schlom: There’s a big difference between 03/05 and 04. In 03 and 05, they picked good players who got injured later. Carrillo, in particular, was a potentially huge return, a shorter, slimmer RHP who had fantastic stuff. 04 was the only year the whole process was broken.
May 20, 2008 at 6:06 pm
#118@JP: That’s not quite how I feel. I don’t necessarily want to give Kouz more time, but if he’s just a throw-in to a trade, we may be better off keeping him so he can produce as a platoon player for us. If he could bring back a good player, I’d move him without much worry. He’s struck out 35 times and walked……4. That doesn’t sound like improved patience to me.
I’d much, much rather have Headley playing 3b in the future, with Huffman in LF, than Kouz (3b), Headley (LF), Huffman (RF), and a necessarily superhuman CF covering 70% of the outfield.
May 20, 2008 at 6:08 pm
#112@JP: They had a 3 million dollar backup in Michael Barrett, who is good enough to start. There aren’t many ways to plan for both your top catchers to go down that don’t involve replacing them with the Carlins and Mortons of the world.
May 20, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Ho hum. Luis Gonzalez year in and year out fashions an OPS that hovers right around the high .700’s to low .800’s. I wanted him in the Padre camp as a reliable platoon guy to 1 year stop gap until Chase time in late 2008 or early 2009. I was roundly hissed at by many of this blog when it offered it as a suggestion. Our in house guys are better.
Remember the Winter 2007-2008 articles about how PMAC was looking to battle back from the fringes and the deep cellar on the depth chart. Little did he know, he would be relied upon as the main platoon guy with the other in house candidate Jody Gerut.
May 20, 2008 at 6:22 pm
BTW, and it again makes Schlom’s point. ‘Who would have thought we would lose a catcher ? sounds an awful like (therefore justifying Brady Clark in center) :”What team could have replaced two outfielders that late in the season. We have NO farm system now outside of two to three good prospects.
#122@Tom Waits: But wait, Waits.
I am talking of course about when Barrett went down. It seemed like the obvious question for KT (in which he received) at that time from sportswriters was “will you get someone in here to help at the catching spot”. KT hardly brushed the question away but rather took it like head on as if a legit. query, answering “maybe, we will see how things go”. Things went awful and may continue as there is no guarantee that Barrett makes it back or Bard gets/stays healthy.
May 20, 2008 at 6:30 pm
#100@Schlom: I haven’t analyzed the Padres’ draft history — Geoff, maybe something for the book? — but why would you point out only the first round?
The Padres drafted Tony Gwynn (third round), Jake Peavy (15th) and Ozzie Smith (fourth). Those are just the biggies. Not sure how many other productive, but not great, players they drafted after the first round.
May 20, 2008 at 6:57 pm
#123@JP: Until 2 weeks ago Gonzalez had hit worse than PMac. How was a worse hitter going to prevent the start we had?
#124@JP: It’s still true, unless you can name a team that wouldn’t have turned to a Brady Clark if their 2 best CF went down the last week of the season. Any team that loses its two top catchers has 3 options:
1. Promote a youngster (and if you read about the minor leagues, there are very few good catching prospects)
2. Rummage in the Gary Bennett / Corky Miller scrap heap. Bennett has a career OPS of 64. That’s fairly typical of the veteran stopgap catchrs. Yippee.
3. Make a trade for a good catcher, if they feel they can contend.