Friday Links (31 Aug 07)
Fri, Aug 31, 2007
by Geoff Young
My wife and I went to Del Mar on Thursday. First time I’d been to the track in years. I studied the horses, jockeys, and trainers to the best of my limited ability and proceeded to lose every race I bet on.
My wife hit a 30-1 longshot in the third race. She liked the name of the horse, Peachy Canyon. Suffice to say, her method is way better than mine.
Also, you really can’t determine the winner until after the race has been run. Funny how that works…
- Kings of the Road (Baseball Analysts). Rich takes a closer look at Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb.
- Jake Peavy’s max effort mechanics (Hardball Times, via PFL in the comments). Speaking of Peavy, here’s some great video analysis from Carlos Gomez on everyone’s favorite Cy Young award candidate:
Let’s get this clear. Peavy is a max-effort pitcher with high risk/high reward mechanics. I happen to love pitchers who “go after it” even if they are considerably riskier. I would love to see Peavy clean up his mechanics in order to reduce the risk. However, I would not be in favor of him toning down his aggressiveness.
Fantastic stuff here. I hope the Padres are reading.
- Clutch Peavy shows his value (San Diego Union-Tribune). And the obligatory fluff piece.
- Pads’ ‘Operation’ needs Milton Bradley’s skills, not his games (CBS Sports, via KRS1 in the comments). Scott Miller takes a closer look at Padres left fielder Milton Bradley. This one gets a little pop psychologyish at times, but it’s a good read nonetheless.
- Greatness, in Mad Dog Years (SI.com, via Phantom in the comments). Geez, is that right? Says here that Greg Maddux has won 135 games in which he didn’t walk a batter and that this total is more than twice the total of his nearest competitor, Don Sutton. Nice.
- More Hall of Fame photos. These are from LynchMob: Saturday and Sunday.
- Longtime Dodgers hater now is one (San Diego Union-Tribune). I remain convinced that David Wells signed with the Dodgers to help the Padres down the stretch.
- Fast Balls. Cool blog alert. If you’re into the whole Gameday analysis phenomenon (and if you’re not, what’s up with that?), you’ll want to pay this site a visit.
Meanwhile, down in the minors (thanks to LynchMob for these!)…
- Prospect Hot Sheet (Baseball America). Eugene outfielder Kellen Kulbacki shows up at #8 this week. He’s hitting .349/.424/.651 in August. That’s not too shabby. Neither is .327/.424/.525 against southpaws (Kulbacki bats left-handed).
- Downs, Durango named co-MVPs (MiLB.com) Another Eugene outfielder, Luis Durango, has been named Northwest League co-MVP on the strength of a .368/.414/.471 performance.
- Headley, Geer headline Texas League’s best (MiLB.com). San Antonio third baseman Chase Headley has been named Texas League Player of the Year, while teammate, right-hander Josh Geer, took home Pitcher of the Year honors. Congrats to both of them!
For the football fans in the crowd, here are a few blogs I’m happy to recommend. My interest in the sport kind of died with the firing of Bobby Ross some years ago, but I still like to see the Chargers do well. Anyway, give these a spin and tell ‘em I sent you:
- Chargers Confidential. Rich of San Diego Spotlight fame does this one, and readers of his work will know that he delivers the goods.
- BoltHype. Rich’s co-conspirator, Rob Zepeda, runs his own Chargers blog as well.
Also, two of my colleagues at b5media have general football blogs that you might enjoy:
These guys both do fantastic work.
Okay, that was a lot. Now over to Peter for the PPR…
by Peter Friberg
You will not see a frown on my face… (read with the appropriate background music:) It’s the most wonderful time… of the year.
- Baseball at the height of its pennant races…
- College football kicking off…
- And NFL about to get started.
I love late summer/early fall!
Thursday, August 30, 2007
AAA
Yordany Ramirez: 5 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; SO - off the DL
Michael Barrett: 4 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B, SO
AA
Matt Antonelli: 4 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 SO
Nick Hundley: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2B, CS
Cesar Ramos: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
High-A
Ernesto Frieri: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR
Low-A
Geoff Vandel: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 6 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR - yikes!
Short Season-A
Yefri Carvajal: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 2 SO
Rookie
Drew Cumberland: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; SB
Euclides Viloria: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 SO, 1 HR - no idea…
[Ed note: Wow, the Padres have a pitcher named after a Pixies song?]
Commentary:
Not a minor league-topic…
You never want to back-door your way to the top of a leaderboard — especially past your own teammate — however, with Chris Young’s 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings last night, Jake is leading or tied in each of the triple crown categories:
- Tied with Tim Hudson with 15 wins
- Leading the NL with 2.18 ERA
- Pacing the NL with 197 SO (23 better than second place)
Thanks, Peter. But is Jake any good?
The Dodgers are in town for the weekend. I still think we should replace “Beat LA” with “Beat Everyone” but that’s me. Jack Cassel apparently will start for the Padres against Wells in the opener Friday night.
Here’s hoping for a few questionable calls from the plate umpire early to take Boomer’s mind off the task at hand. If recent games are any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem.
Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
August 31, 2007 at 8:34 am
At this point, Arizona has got to be thinking, “What the hell do we have to do to beat this team?”
Despite last nite’s loss, we scored 7 unanswered runs and made Valverde sweat (by the way, every time I see that idiot do his spastic post-save celebration, I hope he’s gonna fall off the mound and break and ankle). The Padres are in good position. A series win against LA (I’d love a sweep, but I’m staying grounded) would set us up well to go in and take it to the snakes,
August 31, 2007 at 8:40 am
Two things:
1. Yes, Geoff, Jake is a bit talented…
2. In the THT article about Jake’s mechanics (Who care’s about the guys who work on his vehicles? He has a deal a dealership and drives new cars. - JK) there is also a video-piece where Carlos talks over some slo-mo jake pitches. Facinating!
August 31, 2007 at 9:53 am
Where is everybody?
August 31, 2007 at 10:14 am
GY, that bit about Wells signing with the dodgers to help us down the stretch is classic! Maybe he’ll signal the pitches in to OG from the bullpen.
Hey, this is the guy who said if you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.
August 31, 2007 at 10:27 am
Does anybody have a Cliff’s Notes version of some of the details of the roster expansion; how many guys are allowed to be called up? do they have to be on the 40 man? are they eligible for a playoff roster?
Getting WAY ahead of myself I know, but while I am picking your brains, how many are on the playoff roster and when they change the roster from the NLDS to the NLCS to the WS - How many guys are eligible to be selected from?
August 31, 2007 at 10:40 am
Those D’backs are so good at winning 1-run games. Must be that awesome bullpen. If only the Pads had that skill.
August 31, 2007 at 10:41 am
5 … this is just my “understanding”, I’ll leave it to someone else to look up a link with the rules …
- game-eligible rosters can expand to 40
- yes, they have to be on the 40-man roster … that’s the point
- no, players added for “september expansion” are not eligible to be on the playoff roster … the playoff roster is only the 25-man as of 8/31 + players on the major league DL at that time …
- there are pretty specific rules about roster changes between NLDS and NLCS and WS … typically these are used to replace injured players …
- i’m pretty sure the pool of players eligible for NLCS and WS is the same as the NLDS = 25-man as of 8/31 + DL
August 31, 2007 at 10:47 am
Peter I noticed Mike Ekstrom missed a start for SA. Any idea why?
August 31, 2007 at 10:48 am
5: I’m pretty sure that you can add players for the NLCS after the NLDS. I remember there was some discontent last year because Ben Johnson was sent down at the end of August, preventing him from being eligible for the NLDS, but he could have played in the NLCS.
August 31, 2007 at 11:13 am
8 - he did? Didn’t notice - fighting off a cold and in a mental funk.
August 31, 2007 at 11:24 am
5/7/9 … read this for info about rosters and playoff rosters …
http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/roster/glossary.html
August 31, 2007 at 11:26 am
11: Damn, can’t get there. My company is really cracking down on what we can access. I’m just glad I can still get to here and GLB while I’m at work (although admittedly, GLB is gonna get me fired someday).
August 31, 2007 at 11:35 am
In honor of link day:
A nice piece by ESPN saying that the Padres are now the favorites in the West http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2999070
John Donovan with analysis of this crazy week, and some Pads love:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....hts/1.html
And, finally, an analysis of all 9 NL contenders. Pads key player is Chris Young: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....-race.html
August 31, 2007 at 11:37 am
The team must be really down on Hensley. They could have DL’d about 2 or 3 guys without hurting the team, they need arms, and while Hensley isn’t what he was, he’d seem to be better than anyone else we could get from Portland. Before last night Ensberg hadn’t played since the 18th, if they’d retro’d him he’d only need to be out until the 3rd.
After last night I’m surprised they didn’t outright Ledezma. What’s the love affair with that guy?
August 31, 2007 at 11:48 am
There’s a chat on Baseball America at 3pm eastern time. I’m leery of posting links, which seem to consign my comments to the netherworld.
August 31, 2007 at 11:51 am
#15:
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....2007083101
August 31, 2007 at 11:55 am
Cubs picked up Steve Trachsel from Baltimore. How did he keep his ERA under 8? 69 walks, 45 strikeouts?
August 31, 2007 at 12:09 pm
16 … cool … i’m not seeing it started yet?
August 31, 2007 at 12:10 pm
17 … this can only be good news for Padres if we end up facing Cubs in post-season …
August 31, 2007 at 12:21 pm
18 … OK, I see it’s going now …
August 31, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Keith Law strikes again. His last answer here is interesting.
Keith (Vista, CA): K-Law, love the chats. Padres third baseman of the future: Kouzmanoff or Headley?
Keith Law: (2:42 PM ET ) It’s not Kouzmanoff, that’s for sure. Ryan Klesko might be a better defensive 3b
Jason (San Diego): Can you give me an update on the Padres farm system? Seems to be on the rise, but with more solid guys than superstar types. Which guys do you like/dislike?
Keith Law: (3:18 PM ET ) They draft very conservatively, and I just don’t see much if any upside in their system. They took some guys this year whom I like as average big leaguers - Danny Payne and Eric Sogard jump out; I was never a big Nick Schmidt guy even before he got hurt - but I’m not high on guys like Antonelli or Headley, and Hunter strikes me as the “wrong” sort of HS player because he doesn’t show much
Mike (PA): Top 3 in NL Cy Young? Please mention Harang
Keith Law: (3:24 PM ET ) Webb, Peavy, Penny
Chris (NYC): Can you elaborate on why you think PETCO gives the Padres a significant competitive advantage, beyond that which any other home team might have in their ballpark?
Keith Law: (3:26 PM ET ) I think the Padres have realized that pitchers can pitch off their fastballs a lot more in Petco because it’s so hard to hit the ball out of that park, so they’ve tailored their player-acquisition strategy to build their pitching staff, especially the pen, around guys who have either below-average velocity or below-average movement on their FBs, but who do other things well (good control, good K rates). Since those players tend to be 4-A types in other organizations, they can acquire them cheaply and focus resources elsewhere on the roster. And in Linebrink’s case, they fooled another team into thinking his Petco-influenced stats were real.
August 31, 2007 at 12:50 pm
Eh, Kouz’s defense has been better than advertised. If he takes this season’s offense and goes up from here I’m still liking him as the 3B of the future. Or at least a very good option to consider with Headley.
Linebrink WAS a great pitcher. Any team who thought he was STILL a great pitcher wasn’t being fooled by Petco stats, they were just being fools.
August 31, 2007 at 1:02 pm
#21: Interesting but inaccurate:
Linebrink w/Padres 2004-2007
Home: 137 IP, 2.63 ERA, 7.95 H/9 8.34 K/9, 1.05 HR/9
Road: 141.1 IP, 2.80 ERA, 6.75 H/9, 7.58 K/9, 0.89 HR/9
Nice try, guess again…
August 31, 2007 at 1:03 pm
21: I don’t much like Law’s tone, but I don’t disagree with his analysis of the draft. He seems to undervalue average big leaguers. He, like me, must be ready to eat crow about Antonelli. I don’t know how you could say that his power is a mirage, which paraphrases a Law comment in a previous chat. The only knock on him now is defense.
22: Most of the defensive stats I can find say otherwise. He was advertised as a 1b playing 3b by many, so maybe better than that, but he’s not good enough with the bat to make up for it. If Headley isn’t traded, he’s the 3b.
August 31, 2007 at 1:05 pm
I don’t get the impression that BA has very good(or any?) soruces in the scouting department in San Diego. Ever since they came out well in favor of Tankersly instead of Peavy or Perez they have pretty much hated every Padres prospect.
Interested to hear Callis talk about Payne and Sogard, at BA they do realize those were the 6th and 7th players taken by the Padres right?
I think the Padres are always going to draft conservatively and seek most of their true upside players from Latin America where the talent is so much cheaper.
August 31, 2007 at 1:08 pm
I hate to keep harping on this, but among 3B, Kouzmanoff has the fourth-most errors. Cabrera has two more errors, but has a higher fielding percentage, way more assists, way more double plays … Zimmerman has 1 more error, but a higher fielding percentage, waaaaay more assists, much better Range Factor, much better Zone Rating. The other guy who has obviously been worse in terms of measurables is Ryan Braun, who has easily been the worst defensive infielder in baseball this year, in my opinion.
Unfortunately, I don’t have access to fielding splits, and my impression is that Kouz has improved measurably since the all-star break or thereabouts. But the stats just don’t back up the idea that he’s been anything but below-average.
August 31, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Did a high ranking member of the Padres front office sleep with Keith Law’s wife?
August 31, 2007 at 1:19 pm
re 27: My bet on KT…why they continue to harp on Antonelli and Headley’s power surges is beyond me. It’s hardly the first time that polished college hitters with excellent strike zone judgment have added power as they have gotten older.
They say all the time that power is the last skill to develop……I guess that’s only true for guys like Tabata and Martinez in the New York teams’ farm systems.
August 31, 2007 at 1:20 pm
25: BA is higher on the Padre system than Keith Law, the ESPN columnist.
27: Somebody did something. I’m considering something of an anti-Padre fan by many and I still see Law as taking gratuitous, uninformed shots at us.
August 31, 2007 at 1:25 pm
28: I could see BA being leery of Padre prospects without power. Sean Burroughs. But unlike Burroughs, the power showed up for Antonelli and Headley. For Antonelli it showed up and brought its twin brother. I don’t see how he’d write off a 21HR campaign.
August 31, 2007 at 1:40 pm
Keith Law was an assistant General Manager now he is a writer enough said Hey Law your a moron!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 31, 2007 at 1:44 pm
31: Assistant to the … (IIRC)
August 31, 2007 at 1:48 pm
Keith Law Part II (for anyone who cares). At least he took bunch of Pads questions.
Chris, Nova Scotia: Keith, you ever see a funnier lose-lose trade than the Kouz-Barfield trade?
Keith Law: (3:29 PM ET ) Bill Simmons would compare that to Rocky VI - we’re going to say it never happened.
Mark (Philly): Keith earlier in the chat you said you wouldn’t pay Zambrano #1 money. Who would you pay that type of money to?
Keith Law: (3:49 PM ET ) Santana, although he’ll cost a lot more than that now. Beckett. Peavy. Oswalt. That’s just a few names.
Lemme rub my eyes (again and again). Did he say something complimentary about a Padre?
August 31, 2007 at 1:52 pm
33: Law was one of those suggesting that if Kouzmanoff wasn’t a 20HR, 800 OPS third baseman we’d regret the trade. He’s not that and we still don’t regret it. It didn’t work out as we hoped, but it worked out better for us than keeping Barfield would have.
August 31, 2007 at 2:09 pm
Don’t be surprised if the Pads get Barfield back (of course for next to nothing). Barfield could rebound to have a decent career as a starter - Is this year simply a case of the sophomore jinx?
August 31, 2007 at 2:11 pm
Amusing stat regarding Antonelli’s power: this yearAntonelli has as many home runs at Petco as Brian Giles.
August 31, 2007 at 2:34 pm
34: It’s still completely possible that Kouz will develop into that kind of player still. Barfield, it seems, will consistnetly struggle to get on-base. As he has no power potential, neglible on-base statistics are going to doom his baseball career. But hey, at least he’s good at RBI Baseball!
August 31, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Re 34: Ever since Kouz bottomed out in early May, he has 13 HR, 48 RBI in 89 games with a .825 OPS. To me, he already is a 20 HR, .800+ OPS guy, who just had an extraordinarily rough and somewhat unlucky initial adjustment period.
Agree on his defense though. Nevinesque. Hope he improves.
August 31, 2007 at 2:48 pm
15/16 … John Manuel’s chat at BA today included this …
What are the chances of Wade Leblanc, Josh Geer and Matt Latos ever winning 10 games for the Padres?
A: John Manuel: Not bad actually; Geer has below-average stuff but big time moxie, and LeBlanc has a plus change and plus feel. Latos has huge stuff obviously and has the highest ceiling of the three.
August 31, 2007 at 3:05 pm
34, 35: I agree that Kouz could be that player, but he’s not going to be it this year. 13’s closer to 10 than 20, and his OBP remains poor. But we still win that trade.
August 31, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Special Assistant to the GM.
And if leaving a job I didn’t enjoy for one I do enjoy that pays more makes me a moron, then okay, I’m a moron.
Seriously, guys, if you don’t agree with what I say, that’s fine. So much of what we discuss about baseball is a matter of opinion. But the accusations of bias are just absurd, not to mention lazy. The Padres go after certain types of players, and I don’t favor those types of players, at least not to the degree the Padres do. It should never be a surprise that I have consistent views on the moves of certain franchises; I’ll praise those whose philosophies mirror my own, and I’ll criticize those whose philosophies don’t.
FWIW, I did screw up a Padres question today. You can’t discuss their farm system without mentioning Matt Latos, the one real high-ceiling prospect in their system, and I should have mentioned him as a good prospect and a good signing.
August 31, 2007 at 3:18 pm
39: If only Geer was getting some strikeouts with that moxie. He’s not really a groundball guy.
August 31, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Brad Penny’s horse ran at Del Mar yesterday.
How much did your wife bet on that 30-1 shot? Don’t worry, I don’t work for the IRS…
vr, Xei
August 31, 2007 at 3:36 pm
41: “I’ll praise those whose philosophies mirror my own, and I’ll criticize those whose philosophies don’t.”
Shouldn’t praise and criticism be based on the success of the philosophies in practice?
I’ve been irate as hell with the Padres failure to take chances in the draft, but in two years their minor league system moved them from the bottom of the barrel to somewhere midway between the muck and the cream. During that time they’ve also won, while other NL West teams that follow a more risky, traditional-scouting approach have not. I wish they’d go the extra mile and add some upside, but you don’t jump that far in the rankings without having some idea what you’re doing.
I’m hardly jingoistic about the Padres, but I still feel that you’re too quick to dismiss them. It’s like blinders come down when the Padres arise. Petco. Conservative. Repeat.
Heath Bell has a lower ERA and better K rate on the road, but you dismissed him as a product of Petco earlier this year. Geoff Young pointed out in a previous comment that Linebrink’s past success wasn’t due to home cooking. Antonelli’s banging out XBH and keeping his OBP over 400 in AA and, as far as I know, he’s still a utilityman to you.
If you don’t like bias, let’s use your own term, lazy.
August 31, 2007 at 3:39 pm
#41: Thanks, Keith, for stopping by. I respectfully disagree with your assessment of Linebrink based on his actual home/road splits since the Padres moved to Petco Park in 2004. In light of available evidence, he doesn’t strike me as someone who has benefited hugely from his home park. He’s really more of a guy who appears to be in the decline phase of his career. Whether or not the Brewers allowed themselves to get “fooled” into a bad trade is anyone’s guess.
#43: Brad Penny owns a horse? I had no idea. As for my wife’s bet, let’s just say she’s buying dinner tonight.
August 31, 2007 at 3:52 pm
44: Nothing to do with the discussion , but I looked at your comment on Bell’s K-rates and I was thinking we would expect our pitchers to have higher K-rates on the road, because there is more incentive to get the ball in play at Petco given the park. A bit of research showed me to be clearly wrong. In fact both the Padres hitters and pitchers have higher K rates at Petco consistently over the last 3 years. Does that mean pitchers are misusing Petco, or that there is something that makes it easier to strike out pitchers there (heavy air improving the break on breaking pitches?)
August 31, 2007 at 4:00 pm
41: Keith,
If you happen to stop by again: “the moron comment” was from one post. The (mostly) fine folks here aren’t knee-jerk defensive types about their team.
August 31, 2007 at 4:28 pm
41 … ditto’s on the thanks for stoppin’ by … it keeps us honest … and it let’s us know we matter in the same way that our posting of your comments should remind you that we think you matter!
re: 3B-man of the future … do you think the same of the Brewer’s Braun? Kouz is “our guy” … for now … we don’t want his defense to be as bad as it’s seem’d at times … and we prefer to ignore his amazingly bad start … we’re a franchise desparate for power, and he looks like he’s got some and still developing …
44 … re: praise and criticism … I think Keith’s got it right in that what he writes will be based on his current philosophies … if he sees those not working out over a long period of time, then he’ll change those philosophies … and then his praise’s and criticism’s will adjust accordingly. Let’s hope a few more years of Padres winning effects such a change
August 31, 2007 at 5:38 pm
I’ve pointed out more than once that I think the Padres’ strategy of acquiring pitchers who can’t really pitch anywhere but in an extreme pitchers’ park is a smart one. That doesn’t mean I like those individual pitchers from a scouting perspective.
Braun needs a position change as well, but unlike Kouzmanoff, his bat will play in an outfield corner, and he’s a better athlete than Kouzmanoff, which makes me think he’ll be a better defensive LF.
Antonelli’s banging out XBH and keeping his OBP over 400 in AA and, as far as I know, he’s still a utilityman to you.
Antonelli has hit .237/.343/.386 in August, so he is neither “banging out XBH” nor “keeping his OBP over .400.” That small sample aside, my criticism of Antonelli and the pick was based on two things you did not address: His swing, which I don’t like at all; and his lack of a clear position. Now, all that said, I believe Antonelli is scheduled to go to the Arizona Fall League, and I’ll see him there and make a new evaluation.
Heath Bell has a lower ERA and better K rate on the road, but you dismissed him as a product of Petco earlier this year.
The blind faith some people here, Tom included, show in home/road splits really befuddles me. First of all, we know they’re small samples and subject to numerous other factors, like the fact that “road” games are more defined by what they are NOT than what they are (that is, not all baskets of road games are equivalent, even for players on the same team). But second of all, this misses the entire point of my argument about Petco and pitchers and the team’s strategy, one I talked about again in chat today. The Padres target pitchers who can’t succeed in other major-league environments, because their fastballs are short (Hampson, Germano, Meredith) or because their fastball command is poor (Bell, Cameron), but who had good minor-league stats. Having seen some of those pitchers prior to their arrival in San Diego and after, I believe that these pitchers’ entire modes of pitching have changed, and the ballpark is a major if not the sole reason for it. These guys pitch off their fastballs far more and with more confidence than I’d ever seen in them before. Bell, for example, was in a pitchers’ environment with a pretty highly regarded pitching coach, yet struggled, particularly with the longball; his fastball is flat and he didn’t command it. I saw him with the Mets last year, and saw him again last week with the Padres. He’s commanding his fastball better, but the difference to me is that he’s much more aggressive with it (and with his breaking ball as well), like he’s pitching without fear of giving up the long ball, which was a big problem for him with the Mets. He’s not afraid to go to the top of the strike zone with his fastball. I’ve seen the same transformation with Meredith, who actually did surrender two homers in games where I saw him, but still pitches like that’s not a fear. The most likely explanation, to me at least, is 81 games in a park where it’s very hard to hit the ball out, to say nothing of the 20-25 games a year they get in pitchers’ parks on the road.
Recognizing this and tailoring your roster construction strategy to fit it is smart management, something I have said before but that folks like Tom prefer to ignore, saying silly things like “you’re biased” instead because it spares them the trouble of thinking. The Padres can spend less on their pen, with only Hoffman currently pulling down seven figures out there, because they know they can find guys like this on the cheap. It keeps money available for other needs. But the same strategy wouldn’t work in most other parks, so when someone asks me if I like Heath Bell or if Chris Young is a #2 starter, I’m going to say no, because those are abstract questions that deserve an answer that goes beyond the players’ current environment.
Anyway, that’s much more than I intended to write when I sat down, but those are my thoughts. As I said above, a lot of this is subjective, and I don’t mind the disagreements. But give the bias nonsense a rest.
August 31, 2007 at 5:48 pm
Keith, great points. Good work.
August 31, 2007 at 6:07 pm
49: In one comment we get Antonelli’s August as an example of his limitations, but a dismissal of nearly 4 years of Linebrink’s road work, and a half season of Bell away from Petco (with no mention of his minor league record) as too small of sample.
Petco may have made Bell more confident. It might also be that he knew he wasn’t going to shuttle back and forth from the majors to AAA like he did with the Mets. Or being home in San Diego county. Or just growing up some.
If he was a prospect you liked, I expect we’d read that Antonelli’s August is normal fatigue for a player in his first full season as a pro, and lots of words on his 1.200 OPS in July.
Bias is a loaded term for any journalist, which is why I went to blinders. And then lazy, which….hell, that was a deliberate tweak. What can I say, if there’s a fight to be picked, I pick it like I’m going after a booger stuck in the deepest reach of a dry sinus cavity.
I don’t think you’re intentionally portraying the Padres as worse than your analysis tells you they are. I don’t think you’re changing the data. Those would be bias. I suspect that before you ever get to the analysis part, your brain has loaded the near-subconscious Padre filters (Petco! Moneyball!).
I thought Antonelli was a weak pick too. Ryan Freel, I called him. I believe I underestimated his athleticism and the potential of coaching to get more load in his swing. A 187 ISO with 21 HR changed my mind.
August 31, 2007 at 6:40 pm
I guess Antonelli’s July didnt mean anything wow you are such a phony Law
September 1, 2007 at 12:22 am
LOL…. I just think that it’s great that this group of Padre fans/bloggers has reached a point where we attract the attention of the national media.
I give much of the credit for that to Geoff, for creating such a good environment. I give the rest of it to all of us who say what we mean and back it up with data.
Sure,I write my own blog for MVN. Proud of it. But I’m a Ducksnorter, too. Count on it.
September 1, 2007 at 7:11 am
#53: Thanks, Rich. We’re all Padres fans first.