Padres Beat Snakes, Peavy Breaks Record
Tue, Aug 28, 2007
by Geoff Young
Gee, it’s a shame the Padres can’t come back late in games. You know, like they did Monday night (box score).
First off, congratulations to Jake Peavy on breaking Andy Benes’ club record for career strikeouts. Peavy caught Orlando Hudson looking on an inside fastball in the first inning to take over the top spot:
Peavy was in command the entire night. He worked behind in the count a bit in the second, and hung a slider to Eric Byrnes in the sixth that gave the Diamondbacks a 1-0 lead, but otherwise Peavy pitched another beauty.
We were in Section 300, directly behind (and above) home plate, and I tried to think along with the pitchers and catchers all night. I thought Peavy had Byrnes set up for an inside fastball after throwing him a couple sliders, but Peavy went with another slider. Unfortunately it caught too much plate and Byrnes launched it into the left-field bleachers.
Eh, what do I know?
Livan Hernandez, meanwhile, gave the Padres all kinds of trouble through the first six innings. Hernandez doesn’t throw a knuckleball, but he might as well: he never gets tired, and that slow breaking stuff can mess with a hitter’s head long after the fact. I still remember a game from ‘05 or ‘06 where Dave Roberts waited as long as he possibly could for a pitch and still ended up way out in front and missing it by plenty.
Josh Bard and Milton Bradley had at-bats like that on Monday. Unless there’s a hit-and-run play on, you don’t see a lot of big leaguers fling the bat at the ball in an attempt to hit it.
Speaking of Bradley, he hit another home run. (That was a homer, wasn’t it? I still haven’t seen the replay.) Bradley is playing well, but I still wish the Padres had gone out and gotten a big bat like Mark Teixeira. Oh, wait…
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | R | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of August 27, 2007. | ||||||||
| Teixeira | 98 | .316 | .409 | .684 | 182 | 20 | 10 | 31 |
| Bradley | 105 | .362 | .455 | .676 | 199 | 24 | 9 | 26 |
Weird. I kept hearing that the Padres didn’t get a big bat down the stretch; people wouldn’t say that if it weren’t true, right?
Elsewhere in the game, we need to put the “Silent L” moniker away for awhile. Geoff Blum still can’t play any kind of defense, but he’s hitting .299/.371/.409 since the All-Star break while playing way more than anyone anticipated. He’s also putting on a clinic on how to hit at Petco Park (.337/.421/.452 home vs .190/.243/.294 away).
Trevor Hoffman? Yeah, he’s making me nervous, too, but he’s our guy. What are you gonna do…
by Peter Friberg
You will not see me rip “Silent ‘L’.”
Monday, August 27, 2007
AAA
Casey Fossom: 5.0 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR
AA
San Antonio 8, Corpus Christi 1
Matt Antonelli: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 2B
Will Venable: 5 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2B
Wade LeBlanc: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 SO, 0 HR
High-A
No games scheduled…
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 5 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 2 RBI; SO
Short Season-A
Lance Zawadzki: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2B, BB, SO, SB
Kellen Kulbacki: 4 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B, BB, 2 SO
Corey Kluber: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 SO, 0 HR
Rookie
No game scheduled…
Commentary:
When did we pick up Casey Fossom? Where was I? Virginia? Oh yeah… Man, our Triple-A team sucks.
Thanks, Peter. The worst part about the Fossum pickup is that we might need him down the stretch.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
August 28, 2007 at 7:57 am
Portland sucks this year but it will be the team to beat next year (assuming the Padres dont do a full re-build and pull up Antonelli, Headly, Leblanc and Geer next season)
August 28, 2007 at 8:07 am
On the prospect report, is this a “best of” or a summary of performances? So, if someone has a mediocre outing, that gets posted? I have to say, my haphazard review of the numbers suggests we are getting some good performances.
Which raised another question. Does anyone know the “adjustors” for minors to majors? For example, a 950 OPS in AAA does not translate into a 950 OPS in the bigs. Obviously it is park and level specific, but any ballpark (so to speak) numbers? Which begs another question, if it is expected hitters will get worse in the bigs, what about pitchers? Presumably they will do worse in the majors. Is this true? If BOTH hitters and pitchers do worse in the majors, something does not add up. The average WHIP in AAA cannot be lower than the majors AND the average OPS higher. Obviously, only the good guys get called up, which implies there are a lot of guys playing down there with some awful numbers that worsens the average numbers.
It kind of reminds me of the survey numbers where the average number of sexual partners for women was 5 and for men 9 or something like that. Given a good enough sample, that is impossible. I think in the baseball case it is selection bias (the good get called up quickly, the bad pad the numbers and stick around) vs. reporting bias in the sex survey.
August 28, 2007 at 8:20 am
Re: 2 the PPR is usually only a summary of the Padres top prospects, and its only the ones who had a good or interesting performance the night before.
August 28, 2007 at 8:26 am
GY: Great pics of Jake and teh hooplah around the stadium. This was one game I wish I could have been in San Diego for.
As for Milty’s jack, it clearly hit the railing on the porch. Based on the ground-rules, that’s a dinger. I was pretty impressed that the umpires immediately ruled it a HR. You don’t always see that.
I’ll admit, I thought we were dead in the water after wasting our opportunity in the sixth. Great to see Bard and Blum have strong ABs and get Jake to 15 wins. Barring any monumental disaster, I’d say Jake has got to be the fav for the Cy Young at this point.
Let’s hope the Padres can have some quality ABs tonite against Webb. Tonite is one of those nites where they really really need to be patient. Webb’s sinker usually isn’t a strike. When he misses low, he tends to start to elevate that pitch, and we should be able to feast on that.
August 28, 2007 at 8:41 am
looking ahead the Padres have to face Boomer at petco on Friday, Boomer had his issues this year but he was still pretty good at Petco, mix that with a little revenge on his old uni and it might be a long night.
August 28, 2007 at 8:44 am
2 … jay … the translation of minor league performance to major league predictions is complicated … several have tried … in addition to the adjustments you are talking about (players in majors are better than minors, so adjust every stat “down” … and don’t forget park effects), there’s also the fact that “young” players get better … so a 23 year old with a .850 OPS at a neutral park in AAA might be expected to “improve” to a .850 OPS at a neutral park in the majors for his age 24 year … all I’m saying is that it’s a “model” with a lot of factors … if you’re interested, you should hunt down the old Bill James’ Abstracts … and/or surf around baseballprospecus.com … and I’m sure there’s several other sites with insights / articles on the subject …
August 28, 2007 at 9:14 am
#4: Phantom, thanks for mentioning Bard’s at-bat. I had meant to do that, but in the rush to publish, I forgot. Without his walk, Blum never comes to bat in the seventh.
#6: Complicated is an understatement. I believe James introduced MLEs in his ‘85 Abstract. On pp 5-15, he embarks on a lengthy discussion of the subject, using hot young prospects Tony Fernandez and Dick Schofield as a springboard for his ideas.
In addition to Baseball Prospectus, you might also check out Dan Szymborski’s work at BBTF:
http://tinyurl.com/2f4kkh
On a completely unrelated note, I am *finally* getting my Cooperstown trip photos posted. There are lots of ‘em (most not of Cooperstown). I’m only up to Oklahoma City so far, but here they are:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/g.....699010388/
Should have the rest up in the next couple days…
August 28, 2007 at 9:29 am
Scott Miller article on Milton Bradley. It is definitely NOT a fluff piece.
http://sportsline.com/mlb/story/10321063
August 28, 2007 at 9:40 am
Well Bradley would hardly be the 1st guy to come to San Diego with a checkered reputation only to have a few good seasons before things went south. Given the low media pressure and by all accounts the most personable and likable GM in the game and I can see it working out for a while as long as he stays healthy.
August 28, 2007 at 9:48 am
[...] at Padres, 7:05 p.m. PT — San Diego won the opener of this four-game series on Monday behind Jake Peavy’s 11-strikeout performance. Tuesday [...]
August 28, 2007 at 10:06 am
2, 7: Baseball Prospectus used to run Minor League Equivalences, but they stopped some time ago.
August 28, 2007 at 10:08 am
Re: 9
“Well Bradley would hardly be the 1st guy to come to San Diego with a checkered reputation only to have a few good seasons before things went south.”
who are you referring to?
August 28, 2007 at 10:19 am
#12: First guy that comes to my mind is Gary Sheffield, although in his case the only thing that went south was Werner’s decision to gut the team of big-league talent. Not that 15+ years of Trevor wasn’t a nice return…
August 28, 2007 at 10:27 am
Sheffield had a checkered past even before he got to the Pads?
August 28, 2007 at 10:30 am
Sheffield specifically I think is a good comp for Bradley….he was intentionally making errors defensively to force the Brewers to trade him.
Nevin should also end up on that list as should Kevin Brown.
August 28, 2007 at 10:32 am
#14: OMG, yes; that’s why we got him for so little:
http://www.futilityinfielder.c.....rt-i.shtml
August 28, 2007 at 10:35 am
I was 10 at the time I had no clue
August 28, 2007 at 10:37 am
11: They actually do still have them buried on the site. It’s under statistics, equivalent average, minor league EQAs and translations. Here’s a direct link:
http://www.baseballprospectus......noreqa.php
August 28, 2007 at 10:50 am
18: Man, I did a search for that and came up blank. Thanks.
August 28, 2007 at 10:58 am
#17: I’ve been meaning to write an article about the 1993 Fire Sale. Guess I’d better get on that…
BTW, I’m up to Cooperstown in photos referenced in #7.
August 28, 2007 at 11:07 am
Antonelli playing ASL baseball. Rosters just released.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....64750.html
On a side note… I went to high school and graduated with Josh Muecke who is on the Solar Sox. Kinda cool!
August 28, 2007 at 11:11 am
I think playing the AFL means Antonelli is not in the plans for 08, but it looks like they like his chances(along with Venable and Hundley) for 09.
Can we assume they are as high on Huffman as they are on Headley?
We’ve talked a lot about moving either Kouz or Headley to LF, but it seems like Huffman will be ready to be a middle of the order guy starting some time soon.
August 28, 2007 at 11:21 am
Interesting that they are having Startup play in the AFL I figured he would be in the Padres 08 plans.
August 28, 2007 at 11:24 am
Re:22 I wonder if Huffman has the arm to play RF
August 28, 2007 at 11:41 am
I dont think KT is as available as this guy thinks
http://blogs.chron.com/sportsj.....rings.html
August 28, 2007 at 11:55 am
#23: Playing in the AFL doesn’t mean a guy doesn’t fit into a team’s immediate plans. Ryan Howard and Huston Street won ROY in ‘05 after playing in the AFL in ‘04.
#25: This is called wishful thinking. It’s also nice to know that Towers is well regarded outside of San Diego.
August 28, 2007 at 12:00 pm
Re: 26 Hmm I figured they would want to rest a pitchers arm in the offseason if they had plans to call him up to the big club.
August 28, 2007 at 12:09 pm
SI.com has an article that should be two-fold interesting to Padres fans. The first page is an analysis of Seattle and AZ, and the second page is a detailed breakdown of why Maddux is truly one-of-a-kind (it has to do with how often, or rather rarely, he walks batters).
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....cks/1.html
August 28, 2007 at 12:14 pm
Have KT or Black given any indication of who will be starting the game that CY isn’t on Thursday or Friday? (Assuming CY’s ready to go; if not, yikes.)
August 28, 2007 at 12:19 pm
24: He played quarterback in college. When he was drafted he had plenty of arm strength. His footwork and speed were considered marginal then. In the Padre Top 10 writeup this year they said his range and arm were “just playable in left.” Hard to believe he could be a college qb with a subpar arm, and BA’s scouting reports aren’t gospel.
27: They gotta send somebody. We’re sending 4 relievers, and I’d be surprised if any of them are a Top 20 prospect in our system. Teams can influence how much work a pitcher gets. He’s at 65 innings now and gets 6 weeks of rest before the AFL starts, unless we make a roster move and call him up.
August 28, 2007 at 12:26 pm
25/26 … I’d bet that the word “available” comes more from the presence of DePodesta in the org than just “wishful thinking” …
August 28, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Re: 30 I assumed he would get called up on sat, it seems like the pads need to get as many guys in the pen as possible with the mess we have in the roation at the moment.
August 28, 2007 at 12:30 pm
I wonder if the Pads will work out a new deal with KT in the off-season he is only signed through 08. He has really gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in just a couple of seasons.
August 28, 2007 at 12:37 pm
7/20 … I’m getting my HOF pics on-line too … here’s what I took on Saturday …
http://www2.snapfish.com/thumb....._=73977598
In my defense, I was too excited to be there to worry too much about taking good pics … an attitude I regret a bit now … but it was fun to be “in the moment” while there …
August 28, 2007 at 12:38 pm
34 … and here’s a few pics from Sunday … before my camera batteries died
http://www2.snapfish.com/thumb....._=73977598
August 28, 2007 at 12:46 pm
32: They could drop Stauffer from the 40 man and put Startup in his spot. Wouldn’t be surprising. They don’t have to send him to the AFL if he gets too much work in September with the big club.
August 28, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Re 25 and all the other Huffman/Kouz/Headley in LF talk…
This is what I’ve been talking about for awhile.
Kouz has established himself as a qualified MLB hitter. Headley & Huffman are each easy bets to be solid MLB hitters.
I don’t have an in-depth org chart, but quick & dirty:
C: Bard, Barret, Hundley, Canham
1B: Gonzalez, Blanks,
2B: Antonelli, Sogard
SS: um… oops
3B: Kouzmanoff, Headley, Freese,
LF: Bradley, Harriston, Headley, Huffman, Blanks, Venable, Kulbacki, Carvajal
CF: Camaron, Bradley, Hunter, Venable
RF: Headley, Huffman, Freese, Kulbacki, Carvajal
The Padres do not have much at SS but they have options at every other position.
Not that this has even 1% chance of coming true, but my best guess 2011 lineup based ONLY on guys currently in the organization:
C: Canham
1B: Gonzalez - though I actually think Adrian will be traded (but for what?) and Blanks will be starting
2B: Antonelli
SS: Cumberland
3B: Freese
LF: Kouzmanoff
CF: Hunter
RF: Carvajal
August 28, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Re: 36 They could drop Stauffer, Rakers, Wells, Thompson from the 40 man roster and I dont think most people would mind.
August 28, 2007 at 12:53 pm
No offense to the Houston writer, but I think there is one much bigger problem then the Padres letting KT go during his contract: Why in the world would he want the Houston job?
Seriously, it’s a bad, bad job right now. The minor league system is completely bare and the owner meddles a ton.
They do have a couple of nice pieces in Berkman and Oswalt, but considering the problems I can’t imagine KT having any interest.
August 28, 2007 at 12:55 pm
re 37: From what I’ve heard you can expect Adrian to be pushed as the face of the franchise moving forward, to both the english and spanish speaking communities in San Diego.
August 28, 2007 at 1:00 pm
re 37: Again….I think this might win the record for most consecutive posts…
Freese over Headley? Doesn’t make a ton of sense, Headley has clearly passed him on the depth chart this season.
August 28, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Re: 40 if Blanks is Mashing in AAA in 09 I think Adrian will be traded in 2010 (last year of his deal)
August 28, 2007 at 1:06 pm
41 … I’ve done IGDs alone, so you got a *long* way to go to snag that record
My guess is that Peter is thinking Headley will be traded for a pitcher before 2011? He lists Headley over Freese in the depth chart (but doesn’t list KG nor OG?) … 2011 may be a bit soon for Cumberland, Hunter and Carvajal … but if they are very good, they will be up by then for sure …
August 28, 2007 at 1:19 pm
Carvajal is an exciting guy in the system, especially considering his age. He’s the only guy down there capable of growing into a ManRam/Miguel Cabrera type hitter.
August 28, 2007 at 1:35 pm
Bill Werndl certainly agrees with GY’s suggestion to drop the silent L: He said today that Blum, among position players, is the MVP of the team. So one HR, albeit a big one, is the difference between MVP and not even entertaining the notion?
August 28, 2007 at 1:48 pm
45: It’s time to do the merciful thing and turn Werndl’s life-support machine off. Clearly he is no longer capable of thought.
If you’re picking a short-timer, how about the short-timer with NINE HOME RUNS and a 1.131 OPS!
August 28, 2007 at 2:05 pm
45: Geoff Blum is in fact the Padres’ 12th most valuable hitter this year, behind such luminaries as Rob Bowen, Scott Hairston, Pete LaForest, and Jake Peavy (as a hitter). If you want to do an overall team MVP to include pitching (without defense factored in, but adjusting for position), he’d place 23rd. So, hey, he’s earning his roster spot!
In other exciting VORP news, Kouz has climbed above replacement level, and now is +3.9 runs.
VORP link:
http://www.baseballprospectus......p;team=SDN
August 28, 2007 at 2:07 pm
47: Oops, I just realized I double counted Peavy, as a hitter and a pitcher, so Blum is actually 22nd on the team. Way to go, Blum!
August 28, 2007 at 2:28 pm
See Blum gets better by the minute…interesting Peavy interview on XX, he certainly sounds like he’d like to sign an extension as soon as possible
August 28, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Darren Smith brought up Milton Bradley’s name in that conversation.
August 28, 2007 at 3:51 pm
If we are going to drop off KK’s April numbers in value analysis can we do the same for Blums first 30 at bats on the season ?
For the expectations that many of us, including me, had for Blum in April (the expectation that he would be released based on a 4 for 30 start? ) obviously he is delivering and stepped up in a way that no one has expected. This was an important spark as Marcus hasn’t been able to hit is way out of a wet paper bag for most of the season. Spmetimes I am perplexed as I still do read an exceptional amount of hate blogs re: Blum, even though, he has really swung the bat well now for a couple of months . Sometimes I wonder where the vitriol towards Blum comes from .Last night’s homer was not really a surprise to me based on the number of times lately that he has really driven the ball. That was a clutch blast last night -expect more big hits from Blum down the stretch….remember last year when he stepped up and had that big series late against the Dodger’s.
August 28, 2007 at 4:17 pm
51: One of the reasons for the hatred for Blum is from comments like Werndl’s. Another is that he’s a really bad player, having a career year this year at age 34. As pointed out in 47, he’s been the 22nd best player on the team, and yet for some reason people believe he’s been a key contributor. One big homer doesn’t negate years of poor play (occasionally a blind squirrel finds an acorn, even broken clocks are right twice a day, etc.).
People are willing to overlook Kouz’s bad April because he’s a young guy adjusting to a new league. Blum is old and been playing for a long time.
August 28, 2007 at 4:38 pm
Since May 1st Kouz is batting 276/327/485 and Blum is at 284/352/401. Not bad for Blum, especially considering the alternative (NOG at 197/275/277). I don’t think that people really think he’s the MVP, more like he’s the most surprising player on the team. Not too much good on anyone’s splits from May 1st:
http://www.baseballmusings.com.....mp;MinCI=0
However, if you want to see more awfulness, check out the D-backs offense — how is a team with absolutely zero offense except for ADHD Byrnes in first place?
August 28, 2007 at 4:42 pm
According to the BP show, Young will pitch on Thursday.
August 28, 2007 at 4:43 pm
I’m actually a fan of Blum’s as he is better than the average backup utility infielder in my opinion. Here are the players holding down those spots in the NL West: D-backs (Augie Ojeda), Dodgers (Ramon Martinez), Giants (Kevin Frandsen), and Rockies (Jamey Carroll). Blum is probably better than all of them this season and he does have some big late game homeruns in his career (not sure if any of the others do). Plus his teammates all seem to like which is got to be worth something, right?
August 28, 2007 at 4:47 pm
54: Exhale.
But now who starts on Friday? Cassel? Someone from AA? Fossum?
53: Yeah, the D-Backs team OPS+ is 87. The Padres are at 99. And their number two starter is Doug Davis. And their much celebrated bullpen’s two main setup guys are way outpitching their peripherals (Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon). But damn is Brandon Webb good.
August 28, 2007 at 4:48 pm
Plus his teammates all seem to like him I obviously meant….
August 28, 2007 at 5:40 pm
I’ll chime in for the B(l)um camp … which I hope doesn’t mean I “hate” him and/or am “vitriolic” …
Thru June 1st, B(l)um was hitting .192/.264/.303 in 99 ABs … that was *a lot* of outs … I didn’t (and still don’t, really) understand how/why BB/KT stuck with him …
What has B(l)um done lately? Since Aug. 20th, he’s hitting .192/.250/.423 in 26 ABs … that HR last night bump’d the SLG … but it masks a return to being an out-machine … (while NOG has gone .571/.667/1.143, in a classic example of small-sample-cherry-pickin’
)
In between, he hit .324/.398/.398 in 108 ABs … which I’ll admit was stunning and pleasing and valuable … (while NOG went .130/.182/.174 in 92 ABs … OUCH!)
It doesn’t seem like he’s an above-replacement-level player, but Schlom in #55 makes a great case that he is … it’s hard to believe how low “replacement-level” is … I just cringe when I see that he’s in the on-deck circle …
August 28, 2007 at 5:44 pm
58 … excuse me, that first set of stats is thru *July 1* (not June 1) … ie. after the game on July 1st, he was hitting below .200 … and had batted in enough “clutch” situations that, if there were any chance I believed in “clutch” players, I’d have been convinced that Blum was *not* a “clutch” player …
August 28, 2007 at 6:15 pm
It’s too bad rosters don’t expand until Saturday because using every reliever available(yes, calling up every single pitcher on the 40 man) for an inning sounds like a much better idea then throwing Cassell/Stauffer/Thompson et al another time.