In my preseason preview at Baseball Think Factory, I predicted that the Padres would fall off a bit from last year’s performance and finish with 80 wins. At the All-Star break, on the strength of their solid first-half performance, I revised my original estimate upward to 85 victories.
I’m happy to report that, thanks in part to Saturday afternoon’s 3-1 triumph over the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Padres have exceeded even my revised, more optimistic total and now have 87 wins on the season. More importantly, for the first time in the franchise’s 38-year history, the Friars have reached the playoffs in consecutive seasons.
Among the many endearing aspects of this year’s Padres is the resiliency they’ve shown throughout the season. How many times have they been dismissed by a national sports media that had no interest in seeing a team from San Diego reach the playoffs? The assumption was that the Padres would fade down the stretch, wilt under the pressure, be devastated by a historical loss at Dodger Stadium on September 18 or a crushing home run off the bat of Albert Pujols a little over a week later.
Too bad the media didn’t get buy-in from the guys playing the games before making those proclamations.
On September 1, the Padres found themselves down by 4 games to a surging Dodgers club that had made a number of high-profile moves at the trade deadline, and were hanging on to the NL wild card by the narrowest of margins. The Pads’ record at the time was 68-66. Since then, in what is supposed to be a stretch of season that separates the men from the boys, the men from San Diego have gone 19-8.
All that’s left to decide now is which of the Padres and Dodgers enter the post-season as NL West champions and which as the wild card. If the Padres win on Sunday, they’re champs due to their 13-5 record against Los Angeles in 2006. If the Pads lose, they still win the division if the Dodgers somehow lose to a flat Giants team that seems more interested in going home for the winter than in playing baseball.
Either way, the Padres are returning to the dance. And as the 1987 Twins, 1997 Marlins, and 2003 Marlins (among others) can attest, once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen.
There’s no denying that now is a good time to be a fan of the San Diego Padres. Enjoy it.
Do the Giants have one once of respect left. C’mon sack up and keep your hated rivals from winning the division. Someone please, Barry Bonds needs his trainer back, just for one more day.
Just finished my own little write-up on today’s events…
http://padres.mostvaluablenetwork.com/
…and I don’t really expect the Giants to buckle down tomorrow. I would be less surprised to see the Dodgers look hungover and flat, considering their recent history of emotional letdowns. Remember, the day following the big comeback a couple weeks ago, they looked spent the following day.
But, as I wrote, we have plenty of reason to take care of business on our own. If we win, what they do is futile. Although they will probably get props from ESPN for their “valiant September”, despiote having held a four game lead over the Padres on Sept. 1st…
Pettite 7 innings, 1 earned run today. Leaves with a 2-1 lead. Miller promptly comes in and gives up the lead (1 inning, 1 earned run). That makes Miller the winner according to MLB. So, yes, Trevor does have a shot at the CY, but a very long shot.
Astros still alive, barely. Be nice to get the division and have St. Louis have to play an extra game on Monday.
repost from previous discussion:
I’m a big Hoffman fan, but does anyone really think that a 1.89 ERA in 62 innings, almost all in low-pressure situations, is better than a 3.00 ERA in 220 to 230 innings?
Do you really want Hoffman to win an award that he doesn’t deserve just to give the Padres some props?
I would like to see the award go to the pitchers who do the heavy lifting.
re: 3
How does Pettite affect the Cy Young Award race? He isn’t a candidate.
Kevin:
I think the Cy Young should not be reserved for starters. If Trevor had more of an impact on his team’s final fortunes in 62 innings than someone else did in 200, he should get the award.
There are plenty of teams spending a lot of money out there and saying they agree that a closer is a crucially important piece of the puzzle.
I think Trevor deserves it. Admittedly, I hold some leftover emotion because I felt he deserved it in 1998.
one more thing…
“low-pressure”? oh, I really, really disagree with that…and so does Byung-Hyun Kim…among others.
I don’t believe Hoffman is anywhere near Webb/Carpenter/etc this year, but I’d be all for a kind of career-recognition Cy Young award for him. Kind of like how A-Rod got that one MVP out of recognition for like 4-5yrs of excellence.
The Giants have Schmidt going while the Dodgers (who also clinched today) have Stults going… I don’t think the Giants have a lot heart and that rivalry is a shell of its former self, however Schimdty is a gamer. If he goes out wanting to prove himself for next year he could shut down the Dogs…
But we win, and it doesn’t matter…
Check my ‘blog, I wrote about who should start in the playoffs (or more accurately, who probably won’t start)…
Geoff, as to your “85 wins” – it was much later, but about a week 1.5 weeks ago, I said 87 wins would probably win it and 88 would definitely win it… 88 it is…
Just caught Buster Onley talking about how the Padres match up favorably with the Mets since they have a lefty (Wells) and two guys that can bust the Mets inside (Peavy, Young).
He also pointed out that the Padres 19 wins in September is the most in the majors.
2: nice writeup, Rich.
One man’s take on the postseason roster
OFs
Roberts
Giles
Johnson
Cameron
Sledge
IFs
Gonzalez
Blum
Barfield
Greene (Alexander if KG is not ready)
Branyan
Walker
Klesko
Cs
Bard
Piazza
Notes: Bellhorn is left off — Walker essentially took his spot. Alexander could also take Sledge’s spot and be added as the backup 3b. Bowen’s done a great job, but we probably don’t need three catchers . ..
Pitchers
Starters (not nec. in order):
Peavy
Wells
Young
Williams
Relievers:
Hensley
Embree
Hoffman
Linebrink
Meredith
Adkins
Sweeney
Notes: Hensley would be the Pads’ long man. Based on the fact that he hasn’t pitched in two weeks, I’m guessing Cassidy is left off in favor of Adkins/Sweeney.
11:
The Mets would be an interesting series.
I think we look good against just about anyone now. Not saying domination, just saying I think we match up pretty well.
Am I the only codger who thinks the Wild Card, and particularly, celebrating while being tied for first with one game left to play (games which will be played with reserves because the Padres and Dodgers have already “clinched”), sucks?
What a great time yesterday. I got in a few posts yesterday from the game on my Treo. While it was fun to hang out by the dugout after and see the players so happy, I’d rather see a celebration for the division championship.
Today I’ll be at the game again. They expect 45,000 for Gonzo and Counsell’s last DBack game. Gonzo is Az’s Trevor. Everyone loves him here.
I’ll try to get a few posts off from the phone. I had a couple of DBack fans tell me that thay were pulling for us to take it all. BTW, AZ fans hate the Dogs as much as we do.
the only reason I’d say bring on the Mets is
a. it’d be easier to beat them in a short series. especially with the momentum and how both teams played in Sept (Mets 13-13 and Padres 19-8)
b. pitching matchups I think would be much more favorable
c. it’s time to shutup met fans
and
d. I might be able to fenagle a ticket, that or just tailgate (meetup maybe?)
also Bochy said Klesko could make the postseason roster, hopefully replacing Mark Bellhorn
Re. 15: I like the wildcard. It took a while, but I’ve come around to it, unlike the DH which I’ve never warmed to. However, I was disappointed to see the Padres celebrating yesterday. I would much prefer some of the veterans to have said, “No, we want the division; if we win tomorrow, then we’ll celebrate.”
re 19
Yeah, but by that logic, if you lose out on the division on sunday you either a) don’t celebrate anything or b) celebrate wildcard following a loss. Much more fun for the guys to celebrate “the postseason” after the clinching win
May I just interrupt here for a moment to say… KOTSAY!