first pitch: 6:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (4-10, 4.94 ERA) vs Claudio Vargas (9-8, 5.38 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
True but largely irrelevant story: I was at Astacio’s big-league debut in 1992. Due to the Los Angeles riots that spring, the Dodgers had to postpone several games, which meant a bunch of doubleheaders later in the season.
This took its toll on the pitching staff. And on July 3, a lanky right-hander just up from Triple-A got the call to make a spot start. The idea was for Astacio to give the big club a proverbial shot in the arm and then get shipped back to Albuquerque.
What actually happened was he shut out the Phillies on three hits, fanning 10. Astacio remained in the rotation on the basis of that outing and finished the season with a 1.98 ERA and 4 complete game shutouts in just 11 starts.
Now, 324 starts later, Astacio takes on the Snakes as the Pads try to put the finishing touches on what would be their first NL West championship since 1998. Arizona counters with Vargas, about whom I have no stories.
Other Stuff
- Playoff tickets available Oct. 1 (NC Times). Games 3 and 4 would be held in San Diego on Friday, October 7, and Saturday, October 8.
- Rangers’ Nevin ‘happy’ for former teammates (NC Times)
- Player-Seasonal Notation: Part One (Hardball Times). I’ll let Steve Treder explain in his own words: “It goes like this: every team always has nine batters in its lineup, right? So if you want to know exactly what the average batter’s stat line looked like for any team in any year, all you do is divide the team batting line by nine.” Fun stuff.
- BTB Power 30 (Beyond the Boxscore). I like how the Pads get slammed the hardest out of the NL West clubs by virtue of their leading the division.
Also, I will be appearing today on Brandon Rosage’s Outsider Radio. And shirts and caps are available at the Ducksnorts Online Store, with September proceeds going toward the Hurricane Katrina relief effort.
Beat the Snakes!
What an asshole, “should not fly the NL West banner.” Hey asshole, we won (or will win) the NL West by playing better baseball then the other teams in our division. Its not our fault the NL West is down. Should we just forfiet, fuck nut?
What a jerk! Goodness, nice and cranky this morning. dear me.
Please god jesus almighty Ala, don’t let us be swept in the playoffs. Looking more and more like the Houston born agains, although the Phillies are hanging around.
What if Enron Park gets damaged by Rita?
Okay. That ‘divided by nine’ thing is friggin’ cool.
So inspired was I that I decided to take a look at this year’s offensive powerhouse San Diego Padres to see what their line would be for this season. It is (projected for a 162 game season):
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K SB CS Avg OB Slg
613 76 159 30 4 15 73 242 66 109 11 5 .259 .334 .394
Seems like a fairly average line, no? It’d be nice to have a few more homers, hits and walks and fewer strikeouts but it appears to be about an average modern-day big leaguer’s line, right? Let’s see whose actual line most closely resembles it, then decide if you still think it’s a decent output.
Ironically, of all the players in MLB in 2005, the player to whom it most closely compares is…Phil Nevin (the NL-only Phil). When you project his 2005 work for San Diego over 162 games, you get:
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K SB CS Avg OB Slg
624 69 160 24 2 20 104 249 42 149 2 0 .256 .301 .399
Not a perfect match, I know (RBIs & Ks are high, BB, SB and OB% are low), but still pretty interesting. How would you feel about send nine of this year’s Phil Nevins out every day? A winning proposition?
Another player who’s pretty comparable yields this line:
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K SB CS Avg OB Slg
630 92 164 38 5 10 47 242 86 74 27 8 .261 .355 .384
Who is this guy whose totals are reasonably close to the 2005 Padres’ totals? Diamondbacks 2B Craig Counsell. How would you feel about running nine of him out every day?
Because Craig was a little light on power and a little strong on speed and OB%, I created a hybrid combination of both of them. Call this guy Phraig Couvin. His line would be:
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K SB CS Avg OB Slg
627 81 162 31 3 15 76 245 64 101 15 4 .259 .328 .392
VERY CLOSE! So what I’m saying is, if you think the ‘divided by nine’ thing has any merit, then this year’s Padres hit like either (A) a slower, more K-prone version of Craig Counsell or (B) a less powerful but slightly better judge of the strike zone 2005 Phil Nevin.
Not the most flattering comparisions.
From the Beyond the Boxscore power rankings, penned by Dan Scotto:
“Padres (20) – Cruising to that division title. I think that if they get swept in the NLDS, they shouldn’t even bother to fly the division title flag, because, quite frankly, that’s all you need… I mean, quite frankly, they’ve scored 54 fewer runs than they’ve allowed, and there are at least 7 teams in the NL better than they are, and you could make a case for 8 or even 9.”
Regarding the notion that the Padres “shouldn’t even bother to fly the division title flag, because, quite frankly, that’s all you need… ” I’ll only remark that I don’t know what the hell that means, and I suspect that Dan Scotto doesn’t, either. I was especially impress with the use of the phrase “quite frankly” TWICE IN THE SPAN OF TEN WORDS. Once would have been too much. Twice is an outright internet atrocity. Can’t Dan be just frank? He has to be quite frank??? Why is that?!?
And the winner of the first annual Joe Morgan Award for idiocy in baseball analysis goes to…..DAN SCOTTO!!!
I second that nomination, Lance!
Crack, the motion to select Dan Scotton the annual Joe Morgan Idiocy in Baseball Analysis (JMAIBA) is passed by unanamous vote of Ducksnorts IGD.
Congratualtions, Dan, here is your Golden Tiolet Plunger and Plack with a gold bust of JM.
Obviously, Dan is heavily influenced by the Steven A. Smith ESPN show, “Quite Frankly.”
Quite frankly, that’s not a good thing.
I don’t pay attention to the power rankings anymore, although Dan George from SI says:
“We’re still not keen on their chances, but the Padres certainly shouldn’t lack confidence in the playoffs. Yes, they’ll probably end up with the worst record of any division winner ever. But San Diego, incredibly, is 4-2 against the Cardinals this season and 5-1 against the Braves, two of the Pods’ possible postseason opponents.”
Even though he spelled Pads with an “o”, I liked this little blurb. Pads were #14, by the way.
It would be typical of the Pads’ 2005 season for the team to go nuts in the playoffs, hitting the crap out of the ball. You just never know what you’re going to get.
I said to myself today:
“Self, all the Pads have to do is go 11-8 in the playoffs. they could do that.”
Here’s to an 11-8 playoff record, that’s what I’ll be rooting for.
Hey I’m here at the Apple store in UTC. The Pads are just stating. That Nano is very cool, but very expensive.
Wow, the BOB isn’t the BOB anymore? Who knew.
Bases-loaded walk to Khalil. Vargas is all over the place. We need to take advantage.
bases loaded. a double and three walks = one run. sigh.
Giants are down 6-2 in the seventh BTW.
Bad at-bats from Loretta and Randa in the first. Sure wouldn’t mind the Rox scoring a few more runs.
Vargas has walked four batters in the first two innings, but the Pads can’t make him pay. Roberts popping out to Glaus on a 3-1 count is inexcusable.
Rox are mounting a rally in the eighth.
Great job by Loretta to hang in on the turn with Clayton on top of him to complete the DP.
Giants have come back after being down 6-0 to tie it up in the eighth. Still only one out. I hate Coors Field.
Wife is tired of watching me talk to myself. We’re going out to dinner. I’ll check back in later.
I hope I strike out…
damn!
Yes, my boy and I are playing Rainbox Six on the PS2..old game but the price was right. HArd to watch the Pods sometimes, especially when they get one run (a walk no less) with the bases loads and an irratic pitcher. What is wrong with out hitting. All messed up.
Khalil Greene – en fuego…
Greene is the man. The BOB is the Chase.
Pedro Astacio — your #2 playoff starter?
I think he should be.
The problem is finding a No. 3 starter.
Loretta swings 3-0 and hits a grounder to short with Roberts on second and one out? Yuck.
Attaboy, Ramon! We needed that run.
Absolutely, Astacio is the #2 at this point. He is the only other starter pitching with any consistency.
What a microcosm of the Padres season: Linebrink gives up a run on a strikeout that should’ve ended the inning.
Aki abuses Tony Clark to finish the inning.
Anyone notice Aki’s home/road splits this year?
home: 35.2 IP, 1.26 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .154 BAA
road: 25.1, 5.33, 1.86, .304
That’s pretty extreme.
Christine Lahti wants to know if Geoff looks as hot as Mark without his shirt…
Trevor Time
LOL. Uh, I’ll take the 5th on that one.
Clayton vs Hoffman: .365/.333/.364 in 11 AB
C’mon T. Finish him.
Where did that miss? A little low, maybe?
Cintron vs Hoffman: 0-for-6, 2 SO.
Now we have to face Cintron with the tying run on…
Goodnight now!
Magic number 5.
This thing will be decided head to head…I’m thinking Tuesday or Wednesday…
Farm Report: BA’s Top 20 for each league is starting … http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/05league20s/nwl.html … Nick Hundley #4 and Chase Headley #10 in NWL …