first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (5-8, 4.14 ERA) vs Javier Vazquez (7-8, 4.54 ERA)
preview: Padres.com

Okay, that was a nice break. Now let’s get back to baseball. The Padres open the second half of the season with a brief four-game homestand against second place Arizona.

As has been well documented, the NL West is pretty much a disaster area this year. There are no winners, only survivors. The Padres easily have been the best team in the division so far. The Pythagorean records at the ASB:

      W  L   GB
SD   47 42    -
LA   40 48  6.5
SF   37 50  9.0
Ari  36 54 11.5
Col  33 54 13.0

The Diamondbacks’ problem hasn’t been scoring runs; it’s been keeping other teams from doing the same. In the NL, only Colorado and Cincinnati have allowed more runs. And only the Rockies have a worse Pythagorean than the Snakes. Throw in the AL, and the Devil Rays and Royals get added to the mix, leaving Arizona at #26 among 30 big-league teams in terms of expected win percentage. When a club that has played so poorly finds itself in second place, a division tends to lose credibility real fast.

Which is why the Pads aren’t getting a whole lot of attention. That and they don’t play their home games on the east coast (California? There’s gold in them thar hills!). But do you know how many teams in the NL have better Pythags than the Friars? I’ll give you a hint: Think back to 1998 1996 [Update: Kevin @ Padres Nation points out that my hint stunk because it was wrong, although he said it much more nicely than that; thanks for the catch!]. There are two such teams, and both were in the playoffs that year. That’s right, the Cardinals and the Braves (!).

But it’s cool, because we’re a laid back bunch and just hang out at the beach all day. (“Say, me and the missus are headed out to sunny San Diego for a couple of weeks in June. What’s there to do?” First off, if it’s June, it ain’t sunny. Second, how the heck should I know? I’m stuck in a cubicle all day. “Gee, there are some real nice office buildings and grocery stores. Banks, auto mechanics, barbershops. You know, the usual city stuff. I dunno, I guess you could pick up the trash that always ends up on my lawn. Oh yeah, there’s lots to do out here. C’mon out, it’ll be grand.”)

WTF? Sorry ’bout that. Anyway, the other reason it’s cool is that while folks back on the other side of the continent are busy tripping all over themselves about the Montreal/San Juan/Washington Expos/Nationals (of Anaheim?), the Pads stay under the radar and get to do their thing without anyone paying much attention. This, I submit, is a good thing. What? Where’s the love? Our guys deserve props!

Absolutely, they do. But here’s the deal: Props are great, but only if a World Series trophy comes with the package. So. Before the World Series: under the radar. After: trophy and props. That’s the general plan.

And now, moving back from the big picture to the task at hand, the Padres need to start winning the games they should win. It’s time to get a little separation from the pack going, dig? The longer you let the other guys hang close, the more they start to believe that maybe they have a chance. You pretty much want to quash that hope right now before it festers into genuine belief. Beating the Diamondbacks this weekend would be a nice first step.

Aki vs Kaz

Speaking of guys who don’t a lot of recognition, I thought I’d check back in on how Akinori Otsuka is doing so far in North America as compared to how Kaz Sasaki fared while he was here. Through their first 111 big-league games:

           IP  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9  SO/9

Otsuka  114.2 2.12 6.91 0.71 3.38 10.05
Sasaki  109.0 2.89 5.70 1.32 3.05 10.16

(via David Pinto’s Day by Day Database)

Sasaki had 71 saves at that point, while Otsuka has just two. Talk about flying under the radar. Since the start of the 2004 season, just four pitchers with 100+ innings have put up a lower ERA than Otsuka (and one of them is a Padre).

Other Stuff

• The future of Fort Wayne prospects and Matt Bush (Scout.com). “If Padres’ fans can view Bush as a good young player, who could potentially turn into a five-tool prospect, instead of an underperforming overall number one draft pick, he could turn into the Ben Johnson of 2008 or 2009.” Would be easier if Bush hadn’t been the overall number one draft pick, but okay.
• Five keys to second-half success (NC Times). And let’s not forget the “unwritten” sixth key: don’t suck.
• Wells springs forward Sinker has pitcher on the rise (NC Times). Right-hander Jared Wells has added a two-seamer to his repertoire this year and reaped the rewards with a great first half at Elsinore.
• San Diego Padres midseason progress report (Seattle Post-Intelligencer). No earth-shattering insights here, but good to hear what an “outsider” has to say about the team.

That’s all for now. I’m chasing down a few interviews at the moment, the first of which will appear early next week. I think you’ll like it. Meantime, let’s see some groundballs from Mr. Lawrence and get ourselves a win. Go Pads!