IGD: Padres vs Diamondbacks (14 Jul 2005)
Thu, Jul 14, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (5-8, 4.14 ERA) vs Javier Vazquez (7-8, 4.54 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
Okay, that was a nice break. Now let’s get back to baseball. The Padres open the second half of the season with a brief four-game homestand against second place Arizona.
As has been well documented, the NL West is pretty much a disaster area this year. There are no winners, only survivors. The Padres easily have been the best team in the division so far. The Pythagorean records at the ASB:
W L GB
SD 47 42 -
LA 40 48 6.5
SF 37 50 9.0
Ari 36 54 11.5
Col 33 54 13.0
The Diamondbacks’ problem hasn’t been scoring runs; it’s been keeping other teams from doing the same. In the NL, only Colorado and Cincinnati have allowed more runs. And only the Rockies have a worse Pythagorean than the Snakes. Throw in the AL, and the Devil Rays and Royals get added to the mix, leaving Arizona at #26 among 30 big-league teams in terms of expected win percentage. When a club that has played so poorly finds itself in second place, a division tends to lose credibility real fast.
Which is why the Pads aren’t getting a whole lot of attention. That and they don’t play their home games on the east coast (California? There’s gold in them thar hills!). But do you know how many teams in the NL have better Pythags than the Friars? I’ll give you a hint: Think back to 1998 1996 [Update: Kevin @ Padres Nation points out that my hint stunk because it was wrong, although he said it much more nicely than that; thanks for the catch!]. There are two such teams, and both were in the playoffs that year. That’s right, the Cardinals and the Braves (!).
But it’s cool, because we’re a laid back bunch and just hang out at the beach all day. (”Say, me and the missus are headed out to sunny San Diego for a couple of weeks in June. What’s there to do?” First off, if it’s June, it ain’t sunny. Second, how the heck should I know? I’m stuck in a cubicle all day. “Gee, there are some real nice office buildings and grocery stores. Banks, auto mechanics, barbershops. You know, the usual city stuff. I dunno, I guess you could pick up the trash that always ends up on my lawn. Oh yeah, there’s lots to do out here. C’mon out, it’ll be grand.”)
WTF? Sorry ’bout that. Anyway, the other reason it’s cool is that while folks back on the other side of the continent are busy tripping all over themselves about the Montreal/San Juan/Washington Expos/Nationals (of Anaheim?), the Pads stay under the radar and get to do their thing without anyone paying much attention. This, I submit, is a good thing. What? Where’s the love? Our guys deserve props!
Absolutely, they do. But here’s the deal: Props are great, but only if a World Series trophy comes with the package. So. Before the World Series: under the radar. After: trophy and props. That’s the general plan.
And now, moving back from the big picture to the task at hand, the Padres need to start winning the games they should win. It’s time to get a little separation from the pack going, dig? The longer you let the other guys hang close, the more they start to believe that maybe they have a chance. You pretty much want to quash that hope right now before it festers into genuine belief. Beating the Diamondbacks this weekend would be a nice first step.
Aki vs Kaz
Speaking of guys who don’t a lot of recognition, I thought I’d check back in on how Akinori Otsuka is doing so far in North America as compared to how Kaz Sasaki fared while he was here. Through their first 111 big-league games:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Otsuka 114.2 2.12 6.91 0.71 3.38 10.05
Sasaki 109.0 2.89 5.70 1.32 3.05 10.16
(via David Pinto’s Day by Day Database)
Sasaki had 71 saves at that point, while Otsuka has just two. Talk about flying under the radar. Since the start of the 2004 season, just four pitchers with 100+ innings have put up a lower ERA than Otsuka (and one of them is a Padre).
Other Stuff
- The future of Fort Wayne prospects and Matt Bush (Scout.com). “If Padres’ fans can view Bush as a good young player, who could potentially turn into a five-tool prospect, instead of an underperforming overall number one draft pick, he could turn into the Ben Johnson of 2008 or 2009.” Would be easier if Bush hadn’t been the overall number one draft pick, but okay.
- Five keys to second-half success (NC Times). And let’s not forget the “unwritten” sixth key: don’t suck.
- Wells springs forward Sinker has pitcher on the rise (NC Times). Right-hander Jared Wells has added a two-seamer to his repertoire this year and reaped the rewards with a great first half at Elsinore.
- San Diego Padres midseason progress report (Seattle Post-Intelligencer). No earth-shattering insights here, but good to hear what an “outsider” has to say about the team.
That’s all for now. I’m chasing down a few interviews at the moment, the first of which will appear early next week. I think you’ll like it. Meantime, let’s see some groundballs from Mr. Lawrence and get ourselves a win. Go Pads!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 14, 2005 at 8:53 am
Here’s a trade rumor … complements of rotoworld.com …
The Marlins have reportedly talked to at least six teams about A.J. Burnett.
The White Sox are rumored to be the most aggressive pursuers of Burnett, and you can expect him to go somewhere before the deadline. Other teams in the sweepstakes include Baltimore, Toronto, San Diego, the Dodgers and the Angels. It sounds like the Marlins are willing to part with former closer Jorge Julio, whom the Marlins reportedly want, as well as Larry Bigbie. If you’re in an NL only league, you should probably try to move him. Jul. 13 - 8:26 am et
http://www.miami.com/mld/miami.....119962.htm
(note: you can use bugmenot.com if you don’t want to register to read this web page)
July 14, 2005 at 9:04 am
Hey, I’m a native and I love it here in SD, plenty to do and our teams seem to be doing better. BTW, water temp at the beach is a balmy 68-72, so get out there, Duckman, call in sick, grap the kids and go man.
July 14, 2005 at 11:28 am
Padre Mike - are you sure about that water temp? I was at Torrey Pines State Beach 11 days ago and the water was COLD! Paper the next day said 62 … can it heat up that much that fast?
BTW, I love reading Will Carrol @ BP … it’s rarely freely available … today’s is … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4220 … fyi.
July 14, 2005 at 11:32 am
Geoff … thanks for Aki vs Kaz … Aki for Mayor?
July 14, 2005 at 11:37 am
LM: You are very welcome. That’s one of those I’ve been following for a while. I love that we’ve got two of the top 5 pitchers in terms of ERA over the last year and a half, and three of the top 15. And that Peavy is so much cheaper than Sheets.
Aki for mayor? Okay by me, but only if he can keep working out of the bullpen.
July 14, 2005 at 11:52 am
No more breaks, Geoff. I think you done went stir-crazy on us in today’s blog.
I thought June was rather pleasent this year. The average temperature at Lindburgh Field for the month was 66.38 (about 1.5 degrees above our mean since 1914), and that tends to be near the lower temp’s throughout our city.
Yes, I brought stats into a weather discussion. Believe it.
July 14, 2005 at 11:55 am
Another thing: The Cardinals did not make the playoffs in 1998. It was the Padres, Braves, Astros and the Cubs, who beat the Giants in a one-game playoff.
July 14, 2005 at 12:33 pm
Oh crap, that wasn’t ‘98? I got it mixed up with ‘96, didn’t I? Well, damn.
funk: Love the weather stats. Can we get a lefty/righty breakdown on that?
July 14, 2005 at 1:10 pm
Notes from the Double-A All-Star Game (Scout.com):
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....type=story
July 14, 2005 at 4:37 pm
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, as intelligent as a post.
How much of Burroughs’ playing time has Nady taken? I must have missed that.
July 14, 2005 at 5:13 pm
18 innings:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....atsId=6610
That’s 6 fewer innings than Ojeda has logged in LF:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....atsId=7139
July 14, 2005 at 7:16 pm
Anyone here watching tonight?
July 14, 2005 at 7:27 pm
That first inning doesn’t seem to bode well.
July 14, 2005 at 7:29 pm
3 HBP now…
July 14, 2005 at 7:31 pm
I’m here, but at work also.
July 14, 2005 at 7:34 pm
Three strikeouts for B-Law, now if he’d just quit beaning guys…
July 14, 2005 at 7:35 pm
Crap. Now he’s walking guys, too.
July 14, 2005 at 7:36 pm
anyone having trouble with the audio brodcast from mlb.com? i can get everything except the Padres..whats up?
July 14, 2005 at 7:37 pm
Watching it on 704 here…
July 14, 2005 at 7:38 pm
Just turned the radio broadcast on. Lawrence hit THREE batters?!?!?
July 14, 2005 at 7:38 pm
Observation: Nady must still be tired from the All-Star break…
July 14, 2005 at 7:38 pm
Richard, watching in hi-def…
July 14, 2005 at 7:39 pm
2 BB, 3 HBP, 3 K, 2 H, 2 Outs on BIP… not a lot of contact being made…
July 14, 2005 at 7:39 pm
I’m getting the MLBtv, and it’s fine.
July 14, 2005 at 7:40 pm
I would love to crush the D-Backs’ silly hopes during this series, but we’re off to a crappy start.
July 14, 2005 at 7:41 pm
Arizona isn’t any good. They’ll fade even if they hang on through this series.
July 14, 2005 at 7:41 pm
Yankees shell Schilling in his season debut and closer debut.
July 14, 2005 at 7:42 pm
Al Leiter was DFA’d today…
July 14, 2005 at 7:43 pm
Tim Redding is pitching tomorrow…
July 14, 2005 at 7:43 pm
Hey Lance, we should have a “Hate List” like Metstradamus…
July 14, 2005 at 7:54 pm
Not a good start to the 2nd half..
July 14, 2005 at 8:04 pm
Isn’t Metstradamus one of the links at our (read:your) blog? I’ll have to check it out. As it is, I visit about 50 baseball blogs daily.
July 14, 2005 at 8:06 pm
I’m a big fan of the hate list.
July 14, 2005 at 8:06 pm
From The AP: Sparky Anderson, Rollie Fingers, Ozzie Smith and Dave Winfield were present for the dedication of the Padres’ Hall of Fame porch at the base of the batter’s eye at Petco Park. The porch consists of duplicate Hall of Fame plaques honoring players or coaches who were with the Padres and were later enshrined in Cooperstown. The others honored are Billy Herman, Willie McCovey and Gaylord Perry. Smith looked at his plaque, with a depiction of him as a Padre, and said, “You got my hair — 1979. Beautiful.” Anderson was the third base coach for the expansion Padres in 1969. In 1984, he managed the Detroit Tigers to the World Series title over the Padres.
July 14, 2005 at 8:06 pm
Just checked out Metstradamus, and I’ve decided that I need to post hate lists as often as possible.
July 14, 2005 at 8:44 pm
back at petco, giles sucking again..
July 14, 2005 at 8:53 pm
Now that JavierV is tired from running the bases, I say we tag him!
July 14, 2005 at 8:55 pm
that was Bochy’s secret game plan..
July 14, 2005 at 8:58 pm
I resent that, hank!
July 14, 2005 at 8:59 pm
Farm Report: JJ Furmaniak, one of our AAA All-Stars, with HR #12 tonight @ Portland … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....a_tacaaa_1
July 14, 2005 at 9:03 pm
In case you hadn’t heard/noticed, A’s Rich Harden is perfect into the 8th vs Texas right now!
July 14, 2005 at 9:16 pm
News from the Portland Beavers daily email …
And tomorrow, Padres second baseman Mark Loretta is scheduled to join the Beavers for a brief injury rehab stint. Loretta is on the Padres’ 60-day disabled list with a torn ligament in his left thumb. He’s eligible to come off the DL on Tuesday.
July 14, 2005 at 9:18 pm
Padres offense is very offensive tonight. I know the pitching is sucking tonight but what does it matter if you cant score a run, 1 to nuthing or 10 to nuthing, same deal.
seven walks and 3 hbp…I just shake my head. Wonder what Bochy is thinking.
July 14, 2005 at 9:23 pm
going down meekly, I thought Sean might do something but he has caught the shutout virus also.
July 14, 2005 at 9:23 pm
Harden finished with 2-hitter … 0 walks … nice! I root for A’s in the AL … just ’cause I lived up there and ran out on the field at the Oakland Colliseum after they beat the Dogs in the ‘74 WS
July 14, 2005 at 9:24 pm
hank, are you OK? You thought Sean might “do something”??? C’mon, when was last time you saw Sean “do something”?
July 14, 2005 at 9:25 pm
Omar Vizquel with 3-run HR to put G’ints up 4-1 over Dogs … Omar’s having a VERY good year!
July 14, 2005 at 9:27 pm
Nady double-switches IN! Be still, my heart! Will bat 2nd in bottom of 9th …
July 14, 2005 at 9:28 pm
… check that … bottom of 8th … so if he starts a rally, he may bat in bottom of 9th also
July 14, 2005 at 9:34 pm
Wow … not even our man X can start a rally
July 14, 2005 at 9:47 pm
Rally! Rally!
- A. Almanza relieved J. Vazquez
- D. Jackson walked
- B. Giles singled to right, D. Jackson to second
July 14, 2005 at 9:52 pm
On last cup o’ Joe for Ben Johnson … c’mon Ben!
July 14, 2005 at 9:54 pm
Nady’s the tieing run
July 14, 2005 at 9:54 pm
hank, are you OK? You thought Sean might “do something”??? C’mon, when was last time you saw Sean “do something”? — nice post
July 14, 2005 at 9:55 pm
The rally killers strike …
- A. Almanza relieved J. Vazquez
- D. Jackson walked
- B. Giles singled to right, D. Jackson to second
- R. Klesko popped out to center
- R. Fick struck out looking
- B. Johnson hit for P. Quantrill
- B. Johnson flied out to right
Hey guys, it’s been fun … way to wrap it up, LynchMob … oh, wait, that’s me :-O
July 14, 2005 at 9:57 pm
G’night, Kevin … go work on that Pantheon … figure out a way to Peavy on there!!!
July 14, 2005 at 9:58 pm
Sean sure did a hellva lot more than anyone else tonight. couple a singles is better than nothing, trouble is, nobody else was helping out.
dont win many games without scoring a run.
no sense talking about the pitching..hitting is what cost us this game.
July 14, 2005 at 10:02 pm
middle of the order, giles, klesko, fick and hernandez….1 for 15 a nuthin single from giles.