first pitch: 4:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Brian Lawrence (5-9, 4.27 ERA) vs Kris Benson (6-3, 3.57 ERA)
previews: ESPN | Padres.com
Oh, goody. Games on the east coast. Games that I don’t get home in time to watch.
Lawrence’s starts this year by runs allowed:
G IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit
0-2 8 60.0 41 11 11 0 11 30 83 61 788
3-4 7 47.1 49 24 24 5 11 25 82 44 642
5+ 4 19.0 36 23 23 6 7 7 27 22 335
Gross oversimplification: Give Lawrence five starts, and two will be good, two will be okay, and one will be bad.
As for Benson, the Mets overpaid for him, but so far it isn’t killing them. He was hurt in April, and although he’s been reasonably effective since then, his strikeout rate (5.4 per 9 innings) is uncomfortably low. Benson has never been real good or real healthy. Career numbers for he and Lawrence:
G IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Benson 151 938.1 4.21 9.13 0.93 3.24 6.30
Lawrence 148 860.2 3.96 9.36 0.94 2.37 5.56
Very similar lines. Lawrence is younger and has been healthier, yet Benson will earn about three times as much this year. Can you guess which guy is a former first-round pick?
Other Stuff
- Over at San Diego Spotlight, Peter makes his case for not re-signing Ramon Hernandez. He also chats with John Sickels to get the prospect guru’s take on the state of the Padres system. Good stuff.
- At Friar Faithful, Richard looks at the rookie season of Tim Stauffer (which reminds me, I have photos of him throwing in the bullpen before Sunday’s game that I need to post). Richard is trying out new methods of analyzing pitcher performance, so swing on by and give him some feedback.
- Metstradamus previews the series. Gotta respect the Eric Nolte shout out. That is old school.
- Mets Geek also serves up a preview. A few commenters are calling sweep. In favor of the Mets. Right, that’s what I said, too.
Enjoy the game. Go Pads!
54 Comments
Anyone of youse guyse got a BP Premium subscription? I’m too cheap …
Here’s what my BP email said today …
Under The Knife
The Heat Is On
by Will Carroll
Updates come hot and heavy in July, as Will checks in with news on Adam Eaton, Milton Bradley and the Red Sox infield.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4231
… so if you can read this Will Carroll article, I’d be interested to hear what he’s saying about Adam Eaton … thanks.
“Adam Eaton isn’t getting significantly better. That’s a real problem for the Padres, since they were counting on having Eaton back in the #2 slot soon. A second cortisone shot hasn’t taken effect yet, though if it does, it shouldn’t take much time for Eaton to find his breaking ball. Bruce Bochy was quoted as saying that Eaton’s return will be more about pain management than anything else. The Pads are looking at short-term pitchers just in case Eaton isn’t able to return effectivel”
Agreed on not signing Ramon Hernandez. As much as I enjoy watching him play and call games, it’s not worth it to have him signed for more than $7 mil/year up to 3 years with options.
As for Burroughs, I would like to have him sent down to AAA to work out his hitting with the new stance. So far, it hasn’t affected his fielding but I’m sure it’ll be a problem at some point this season. In the meantime, let DJ work the hot corner and Nady at first and center/left everyday.
That’s 3 more regular games for Nady plus Sunday starts.
If Eaton is not coming back, what options do we have? Start Hensley?
Hensley should probably get the start in Eaton’s absence.
BTF just posted an AP story saying the Red Sox and Padres have made a minor trade. Adam Hyzdu goes to the Sox (again) in exchange for AAA reliever Scott Cassidy. Cassidy had a 4.05 ERA in 60 IP for Pawtucket, with 66 Ks and 23 BBs. Hyzdu was actually hitting pretty well in Portland. Cassidy had made 3 starts in AAA, so he may be another contestant for “Who will fill Eaton’s Shoes This Week?”
Here is a link to the AP trade story: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-padres-redsoxtrade&prov=ap&type=lgns
The lineup:
CF Roberts
2B Loretta
RF Giles
LF Klesko
1B Nevin
C Hernandez
3B Jackson
SS Greene
P Lawrence
Not bad. At least Jackson’s starting at third and it’s nice to have Lo back even if he brough Nevin with him.
If you’re Benson, do you walk Klesko feeling assured that Nevin will GIDP?
Benson is working sloooow….
Benson’s location is off out of the zone, it’s only a matter of time before he misses in the zone.
Here’s hoping Nevin continues to enjoy success in Shea.
Well, he’s battling. He was late on a fat fastball, though.
Eric Nolte is old school? Ollie Brown, yes. Steve Arline, Joe McIntosh, sure. Barry Evans (Lance), probably. But Eric Nolte?
Ramon again shows why “good-hitting catcher” isn’t synonymous with “good hitter.”
Sorry for the Arlin typo.
What I wonder, if they(Bochy) know that Ramon will be subpar offensively because of a sore wrist but still want him in the lineup because of his defense, why bat him up in the order?
I would think 8th would be more appropriate?
Good point, Hank.
B-Law is looking very good so far.
Nice grab by Roberts.
The Padres aren’t the only ones with problems in San Diego …
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/19/national/19sandiego.html
Headline: 2 San Diego Officials Are Found Guilty of Corruption
… I assume this isn’t a reference to Bochy and Towers
its encouraging that both of our returnees seem to be getting decent wood on the ball. right now we seem to be running true to form, lots of noise but no runs..
always(nearly always) missing that one big hit to bust things open.
hopefully we will get there.
Lawrence thru 3 …
Pitches-strikes – B Lawrence 34-24
Ground balls-fly balls – B Lawrence 4-3
… lookin’ good!
Brian: Nolte has been out of MLB for 14 years. Greg Riddoch was the manager of the Padres when Nolte last pitched for them. The team played in Jack Murphy Stadium. That ain’t “ancient school,” but I think at this point it’s old school.
LM: We are down to our third-string mayor at the moment.
Roberts: another great grab. Getting it done in the field tonight.
Nady for Mayor!
Lawrence thru 4 …
Pitches-strikes – B Lawrence 43-29
Ground balls-fly balls – B Lawrence 4-6
‘Spose it’s all relative, GY. To me, any one who came around after I turned legal drinking age doesn’t qualify for old school.
Anybody else “viewing” this game via Yahoo’s gamechannel? They’re struggling to match the photos to the names. Mark Loretta currently has Brian Lawrence’s face. Last inning, Carlos Beltran was Mike Cameron.
I hear ya Brian. But then, we’re old school.
Nevin takes foul ball off leg in on-deck circle in first game back.
According to ESPN Insider, the Padres and Twins are interested in Joe Randa. He is having a good season.
Great double play started by Nevin. threw to second, then Linebrink covered first.
Lawrence’s final numbers … 6.1 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 4 Ks …
Pitches-strikes – B Lawrence 75-52
Ground balls-fly balls – B Lawrence 6-9
Batters faced – B Lawrence 24
… GREAT JOB!
The hitters have let Lawrence down of late.
Tied in the eighth. I might get to watch some of this game after all…
Damn, Roberts gets thrown out by Piazza.
Guess it was wishful thinking that the Padres might pinch-hit for Nevin…
You mean like with a LH 1B whose complete professional reputation is based on his remarkable ability as a PH?
Richard I was just yelling at the TV for that very reason. But I guess we are the only ones who think that perhaps Nevin is not at his best after missing significant time.
And now Bochy replaces Nevin! *Sigh*
Aki gets out of it. Now that Nevin’s out of the game, what is our win probability, Richard?
Free baseball.
why isnt Burroughs in for defense?
And they’re afraid to let Nady play third. Sigh…
booted by Blum
I don’t get taking Loretta out, putting Blum in, moving Jackson. The defense is worse.
its the sign of a manager that is addicted to the double switch. I hear he is attending meetings but hasnt kicked it yet
Well, so much for that. Home run Chris Woodward. The Mets are acting like they’ve won the pennant. I’m acting like I’m sick.
That was great. That homer was in the air, just as the power flickered here. Glad I missed it. Fitting end to a crap game.
Well, that just sucked.
Given our often punchless offense, I am getting absolutely livid about Nady. The guy has the 4th best OPS on the team (OPS is the best measure of a player’s offensive worth that I know of), behind Giles, Klesko and Sweeney. Sweeney is a platoon guy, so arguably he is the 3rd best hitter. His splits are not bad (.807 vs RHP, .912 LHP), so he can play everyday.
Arguments against Nady: slow July (OPS .756; slow but not horrid). But, if you follow that logic, then why are you playing Roberts? (OPS in July: .395; no that is not a batting average)
So how can he justify not using him? It is astonishing that he can be paid this much but continue to follow a dumb policy that is so easy to show is wrong.
It is like a guy deciding what engines will go in a race car: one goes 250 MPH, another 220 MPH. The guy keeps going with the 220 MPH engine because he feels more comfortable doing it. That guy would be fired in a second, but not in baseball.
I am hoping that Towers knows this when he is thinking about trades. Nady is classic trade bait, but am fearful they trade him away for a some less potent, more veteran and more expensive player. I would love if they would trade for Cameron to the Mets, but throw in Nevin in the deal, plus someone from our farm system. The absolute worst would be to give up Nady for someone like Cameron. Offensivly, they are similar players (Cameron a bit stronger this year, but not for his career). Move Klesko to 1B, Nady to left. If you pick up Randa somehow, then you actually have some punch.
looks like Nady will get some starts next two days according to a bochy quote on the Padres web site:
With lefties Tom Glavine and Kaz Ishii scheduled to start the next two games of the series, Bochy said he’d try to figure out a way to get a right-handed bat or two in the lineup, notably Xavier Nady.
“Nady will be in there,” Bochy said. “We’ll see if we can get something going.”
Jay: If it helps, Towers indicated at the Prospectus Pizza Feed that he’s a big Nady fan. And given the general tone of KT’s remarks that night, I feel pretty confident that he wasn’t blowing smoke.
Obviously that doesn’t make the lack of PT any better but I don’t see Towers trading Nady for peanuts.