In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Dodgers (21 Jun 2005)
Tue, Jun 21, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Woody Williams (2-5, 4.47 ERA) vs Derek Lowe (5-7, 3.69 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | Padres.com
Now that was a dominant pitching performance. Brad Penny was outstanding, but Jake Peavy pitched about as well as a guy can pitch (dig the photo; it’s even better in print, splayed across the front page of the sports section). Some of us (myself included) would like to have seen Peavy lifted an inning earlier, but 124 pitches doesn’t strike me as outrageous, as long as it doesn’t become the norm. Robert Fick scored the only run of the game on an RBI double off the bat of Brian Giles.
Fick, subbing for the injured Ramon Hernandez, has also done a real nice job behind the dish after not having played there since 2001. He and Peavy were locked in last night. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The Padres did a tremendous job this off-season of assembling a solid bench and bullpen for relatively little money, and there is no better example of that than Fick. He never gives away an at-bat, and his versatility is such an asset. Am I fan? You bet I am.
For more on Monday night’s game, be sure to check out Rich Campbell’s take over at San Diego Spotlight. And speaking of SDS, Peter Friberg will be on “Outta Left Field” before tonight’s game, talking about the Padres draft. Tape it, watch it, love it.
That reminds me, there is a game tonight. Two very different approaches to pitching for the starters. Here are ground ball/fly ball ratios:
2005 career
Williams 0.91 0.86
Lowe 2.88 3.29
And, of course, the head-to-head matchups:
AB BA OBP SLG
Williams vs current Dodgers 166 .253 .337 .446
Lowe vs current Padres 111 .234 .298 .270
Jeff Kent (.350/.469/.750 in 40 AB) is doing the big damage, no surprise. The only other guys who’ve had much success against Woody are hurt. Story of the Dodgers season so far.
On the flip side, nobody has done anything against Lowe. Geoff Blum (.200/.250/.400 in 15 AB) has the lone homer. And in contrast to the recent past, Lowe has very pronounced lefty/righty splits this year:
AB BA OBP SLG
vs LHB 207 .324 .366 .449
vs RHB 182 .214 .226 .335
Sort of the anti-Penny. If we get a glimpse of Xavier Nady tonight, it most likely will be again as a defensive replacement.
With the D’backs losing at San Francisco on Monday, the Friars have extended their lead in the NL West to 4 1/2 games. Now is a good time to put a little distance between first and second place. Here’s hoping Woody and the boys can keep the ball rolling Tuesday night.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
June 21, 2005 at 9:15 am
I tuned in late, and only got to watch Giles walk in 8th and got to watch the incredibly predictable Nevin K. What does Bochy think? I am in a 12-step program, and one of the slogans in the program is “Repeating the same behavior but expecting different results.” Perhaps someone needs to do an intervention with Bruce.
Then a bit tight 9th, though, as others have noticed, that 4th ball to Drew could have easily been a strike, given the ump had a pretty generous strike zone.
I am knocked on wood as I type this, but our pitching is really coming together. I am not too worried about Peavy’s and Eaton’s struggles lately (especially for Peavy after last night). But watching Stauffer, Lawrence and Williams pick it up has been very nice to watch. And then May throws in a spot start like he did in Minnesota; yikes.
Here’s hoping I did not jinx Woody. And as others have noticed, this could be our lucky season if we play as we did in the first 3 weeks of June and actually gain ground.
Bury the Blue.
Jay
June 21, 2005 at 9:24 am
I watch that 8 inning and was really hoping Giles was going to rip another single to score Davey.
Of course, Nevin has to get his Ks for the night also. Bochy needs to sit him down for a few games and let Nady into the lineup. Their slugging percentage is about the same and considering that Nady is only a part-time player, who knows how he’ll be with more ABs. Can’t be worse than Nevin.
Oh, that 2 base error was just killing me. Remember when he throw away the DP ball last week that led to more runs instead of out of the inning.
Also, I was surprised to see Bochy let Jake back in the 8th.
Here’s to Woody ‘the hard luck loser’ on the Padres staff so far. Let’s lady luck let him get a win tonight and the bats come alive for more than 1 run.
June 21, 2005 at 12:09 pm
Jay: Nevin is the single most complicated piece of the Padre puzzle this year. He cannot be traded and yet, based on his returns for the first 60+ games, he’s probably not the best option at 1B right now. Teams that spend like the Pads cannot afford to be saddled with those kinds of contracts.
Hey Didi, haven’t seen you around before. Thanks for stopping by and giving your thoughts! I’m in total agreement with Nady/Nevin, if even just for the short term.
June 21, 2005 at 2:56 pm
Hi Geoff,
Good writing on the site. Nice job.
I enjoy your blog very much.
Been reading starting this season. Just finally decided to put in my cents about Nevin. I’ve been wanting to rid of him for two seasons now.
Just waiting for the team to be winning a bit before I ranted. Nevin needs to be dealt this year and then we can deal with Klesko’s contract next year. At least Ryno takes walks.
I missed your “Outta Left Field” appearance.
Hope you had fun. Got a tape?
June 21, 2005 at 4:02 pm
Richard - you asked yesterday about “food at the feed” … and, despite it’s name, there isn’t any Pizza at the Pizza Feed
I’m sure you’ll be able to purchase Petco’s finest consessions anytime you want … but unless I get a recommendation otherwise, I’m not planning to attend on an empty stomach …
So, where should we meet for a pre-game munch? I’ve heard there’s a pub near the Omni Hotel across the street from Petco … would that be a good place? Anybody know the name of the place I’ve described?
June 21, 2005 at 4:08 pm
Lynchmob, there’s DOZENS of bars and pubs in the immediate vacinity. Dunno which one you have in mind. I think Richard’s my ride, so I defer to him.
Not sure if he’s a bar-going sort. I, myself, drink every chance I get, and would welcome the opportunity to tip a few with any and all of you.
June 21, 2005 at 4:48 pm
I’m NOT a bar-going sort … but the term “pub” usually implies to me more-than-just-a-bar, meaning good food also, and that’s all I’m after … perhaps we should hit one of those Mexican places that Geoff was rav’ing about earlier this season?
I’m off to see the Emeralds play … I’ll check back in (much) later tonight …
June 21, 2005 at 4:57 pm
The Field, on 5th between Market and Island, is a pretty cool Irish pub with good eats:
http://www.thefieldirishpub.com/
Just one possibility…
June 21, 2005 at 5:19 pm
Earlier today I sent an e-mail to Paul Swaydan (who apparently is organizing the event for BP), asking whether food would be served, what time Towers would be speaking, and where exactly the auditorium is. Haven’t heard anything back yet. Do any of you know the answers to these questions?
June 21, 2005 at 5:21 pm
Oooops, see now that LynchMob has already answered one of my questions. How about the other two?
June 21, 2005 at 6:05 pm
Wait, did I read that right? There’s no pizza at the pizza feed? LynchMob, you being serious? I gotta look this up…
June 21, 2005 at 6:11 pm
Being 19 y/o, I’m not much of a bar-going sort.
June 21, 2005 at 6:12 pm
And the only place I ever ate downtown with any frequency is gone (Old Spaghetti Factory).
June 21, 2005 at 6:22 pm
Geoff’s right about The Field… good place.
I’m pretty sure there’s all-ages dining.
Sorry, Richard, I just figured all 19-year-olds had fake ID’s.
June 21, 2005 at 7:11 pm
Gagne is out for the year. … Sweeney is playing for Nevin tonight. … Klesko is still batting ahead of Giles. Oh well.
June 21, 2005 at 7:17 pm
If Gagne wasn’t a member of the Dodgers, I think I’d actually like the guy.
He plays for Satan’s team, however, and now he’s suffering the repercussions that befall those who ally themselves with the Devil.
Too bad, so sad…
June 21, 2005 at 7:17 pm
For those who didn’t get to see it, Peter was great on Outta Left Field. Did a real nice job of breaking down the Padres draft.
Also, the “poke Troy in the eyes” thing has taken on a life of its own.
Anyway, solid job, Peter.
June 21, 2005 at 7:19 pm
Regarding Klesko hitting in front of Giles, I’d solve that by putting Giles in the leadoff spot.
June 21, 2005 at 7:20 pm
Hey, Geoff, didn’t think you would be around tonight. When is that pizza feed?
June 21, 2005 at 7:21 pm
Roberts has been great in that spot. Giles should hit second or third.
June 21, 2005 at 7:24 pm
Scully: The Padres and Dodgers have split their last 44 games.
June 21, 2005 at 7:25 pm
Kevin, the Pizza Feed is Friday night. Not sure the exact start time. I’ll pass that along as soon as I hear.
June 21, 2005 at 7:27 pm
I don’t need the time because I’m in North Carolina. I was just wondering.
June 21, 2005 at 7:28 pm
Look at Klesko playing the carom off the wall. Nice!
June 21, 2005 at 7:28 pm
I thought that was out.
June 21, 2005 at 7:31 pm
Ah, that’s too bad; I was hoping you’d be able to make it out here. Next time…
June 21, 2005 at 7:33 pm
Great catch by Giles. Inning saver.
June 21, 2005 at 7:33 pm
Giles: 3 putouts in two innings.
June 21, 2005 at 7:33 pm
We’re only about 400 posts behind last night’s effort.
June 21, 2005 at 7:34 pm
Kevin, Roberts HAS NOT been great in that spot. What’s your definition of great?!?!
He’s been better than I expected, but I expected that he’d be among the least productive everyday outfielders in recent memory. Sort of like Gary Pettis without the Gold Glove defense.
Look at his runs per PA, and you’ll find that no amount of Phil Nevin strikeouts will justify it.
He’s also no better than average in centerfield, and his ark is as bad as Johnny Damon’s. It looks better, because Damon throws like a girl, but it’s no stronger, and less accurate.
Sooner or later, having a fifth outfielder/pinch runner in the starting lineup is gonna catch up to us.
June 21, 2005 at 7:38 pm
The Padres may NEVER score off of Lowe.
June 21, 2005 at 7:39 pm
Roberts came into tonight hitting .283/.351/.449. Maybe I’m saying great because of the expectations, but I was hoping for a .350 on-base from him, and that was really hoping because his career on-base was that good. He has met that criteria, but the .449 slugging has been GREAT, because lead-off hitters aren’t suppose to do that, and Roberts career slugging is .357.
As for the fielding, I wasn’t commenting on that at all — only his play in the leadoff spot.
Plus, he has been a difference-maker for this team. When he plays, the Padres win. Their record with and without him is night and day. I don’t have the numbers off hand, but it’s a big difference.
June 21, 2005 at 7:42 pm
Richard has the numbers, and they speak of a small-sample coincidence.
But coincidence be damned, Dave Roberts is the WINNING MACHINE.
I guess if you don’t read Friar Faithful, it’s not so funny.
June 21, 2005 at 7:44 pm
They’re talking to Cesar Ramos on the TV broadcast. The inevitable comparison to Tom Glavine.
June 21, 2005 at 7:46 pm
Actually, the difference isn’t as great as I thought. Coming into tonight, they are 9-10 without him and 30-21 with him. Still, a difference.
June 21, 2005 at 7:47 pm
What’s Ramos saying?
Something about what an honor it is to be on the same field as Dave Roberts, WINNING MACHINE, I suppose…
Kahlil!
June 21, 2005 at 7:48 pm
Great play by Greene (I’m so stoned.)
June 21, 2005 at 7:48 pm
Great play by Khalil. Can’t believe some people didn’t think he had the arm to play short.
June 21, 2005 at 7:48 pm
I would say 10 games is a significant difference!
June 21, 2005 at 7:50 pm
Ramos was talking about not having overpowering stuff and trying to keep the ball down in the zone, throw strikes, etc. He carried himself real well talking with Mud and Matt.
June 21, 2005 at 7:53 pm
Ten games WOULD be significant, if Roberts’ presence had a significant impact in the games.
I would bet that an analysis of how all those games were won or lost would show minimal impact from Roberts.
And remember, outside of Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, or Bonds in their best seasons, few players in baseball history have been worth more than a half-dozen wins per season above league-average level.
As I write this, Roberts singles off Lowe. Geez…
June 21, 2005 at 7:53 pm
You’re right. It is a difference. I just thought it was more.
June 21, 2005 at 7:55 pm
Kevin is stoned. That explains his love of Dave Roberts.
Or it was a “Fast Times” reference, in which case there is no explanation.
June 21, 2005 at 7:55 pm
Scully on Klesko: He always looks annoyed.
June 21, 2005 at 7:57 pm
“Fast Times”, of course. I always put that beside Greene plays.
June 21, 2005 at 7:58 pm
10 game difference in 70 games isn’t big enough? Tough crowd.
Aloha, Mr. Hand…
June 21, 2005 at 8:01 pm
Mark Grant is one of the nicest people alive, so it’s not surprising he made Ramos comfortable.
Grant and my dad are in Alpine Kaiwanis together, and Mark treats everybody as if he’s thrilled to see them, and recognizes you and remembers your name, even if you only met him once, several years ago.
None of this comes off as anything less than sincere, either.
June 21, 2005 at 8:02 pm
Scully just called Sweeney “the dangerous Mr. Sweeney”! Then he of course strikes out looking.
June 21, 2005 at 8:04 pm
Ten games in 70 would be swell, if anyone cared to show me a connection between Roberts’
being in the lineup, and the victories.
I don’t even need to do the research to have confidence in stating that there was seldom a compelling link.
I suspect our record might be better if he’d missed MORE time, or been used more sparingly.
June 21, 2005 at 8:07 pm
Another Spicoli quip:
“You diiick!!!!”
Of course, this was a response to Mr. Hand’s confiscation of Spicoli’s pizza.
Which brings me to the rumored lack of pizza at the supposed “Pizza Feed.”
June 21, 2005 at 8:08 pm
Do you really think the team would be better off without Roberts?
June 21, 2005 at 8:10 pm
This series is going to be a rehash of the ‘03 World Series: all shutouts.
Funny, I don’t see Christy Mathewson, Joe McGinnity, Chief Bender, or Eddie Plank around.
June 21, 2005 at 8:11 pm
I guess that would be the 1903 series and not the 2003 series.
June 21, 2005 at 8:11 pm
I think the team should have him in his proper role:
Fifth outfielder/pinch runner/good clubhouse guy
June 21, 2005 at 8:12 pm
Thanks, Kevin. Good guess.
June 21, 2005 at 8:13 pm
Damian Jackson, RBI MACHINE?
June 21, 2005 at 8:13 pm
Everyone thougth that coming into the year. I just don’t see how one can think that with his current production.
June 21, 2005 at 8:13 pm
Yeah, I got to say a quick hello to Grant at the tail end of Outta Left Field and he came off pretty much like he does on TV - genuinely nice guy.
Dammit, Burroughs. Gotta slide there.
June 21, 2005 at 8:14 pm
Guess not.
June 21, 2005 at 8:16 pm
I know Bochy plays the book there, but Williams is hitting .300.
June 21, 2005 at 8:18 pm
Kevin, he’s what, 33 years old, with ample major league experience?
What makes you think he’s a .355/.455 guy, aside from a hot start? And he’s still not scoring many runs, mostly because a .45o OBP SUCKS FOR A LEADOFF MAN, AND IT’S AS GOOD AS WE CAN HOPE FOR, BECAUSE HE IS SIMPLY NOT A GOOD HITTER!!!!
So there!
June 21, 2005 at 8:20 pm
The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived, Robert Fick, shall break this open.
Of course, he is only great because “Robert” is so similar to “Roberts.”
June 21, 2005 at 8:22 pm
Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!Fick rules!!!
June 21, 2005 at 8:22 pm
Sure, but if he is getting it done, why complain. Wait until he goes in the tank, then do your thing. (Roberts goes to third on that hit.)
June 21, 2005 at 8:23 pm
Told you so…
June 21, 2005 at 8:23 pm
So, ya think the Dodgers wish they’d signed Fick when he came to them looking for work this winter?
June 21, 2005 at 8:27 pm
Told me what?
June 21, 2005 at 8:27 pm
I’m NOT complaining. I’m just stating my position (which I believe you expect to be proved true before the season’s end) as a counter to your marginally defensible position.
He’s a below-average major league centerfielder, on an above-average team. This an an area we can improve.
I would feel differently if he played CF like Gary Maddox, and was hitting eighth.
June 21, 2005 at 8:29 pm
Told you the Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived would break it open, silly…
Hail Fick!!!
June 21, 2005 at 8:30 pm
Like I said, before the season, I agreed with your position. But things have changed. When he starts sucking, then it will have been a bad signing. But right now, it’s working.
June 21, 2005 at 8:36 pm
Scoring more runs than the opposition is what works, and Dave Roberts doesn’t fit that MO.
Ain’t baseball great?!?
June 21, 2005 at 8:40 pm
Who would be better in center? because they weren’t going to sign anyone better
June 21, 2005 at 8:45 pm
Anyone here buying the “Nevin has a pulled muscle” excuse?
June 21, 2005 at 8:45 pm
“I guess if you don’t read Friar Faithful, it’s not so funny.” - Lance
That’s a not so subtle way of saying something isn’t funny.
June 21, 2005 at 8:46 pm
DR has 8 win shares.
June 21, 2005 at 8:48 pm
8 Win Shares is good for second on the team tied with Eaton, Loretta, Klesko, Nevin and Peavy (because negative WS are stupid).
June 21, 2005 at 8:50 pm
Richard, now you are talking.
June 21, 2005 at 8:50 pm
The league average for centerfielders is: .273/.341/.440 and DR plays half his games in PetCo.
June 21, 2005 at 8:52 pm
Now you are really talking, Richard.
June 21, 2005 at 8:53 pm
What I meant was that it was sort of an inside joke, the humor in which would be unlocked by going to Friar Faithful and reading the (limited) archives.
I figured it would get us more hits, at the very least. Damn, Richard, you’re a bigger nag than my mother.
June 21, 2005 at 8:53 pm
DR’s BA is just over his 60th Percentile PECOTA Projection. His OBP is right between his 60th & 75th. And his Slugging is .045 over his 90th Percentile.
Breakout? I’d say so. His Breakout Rate was only 14.1%, btw.
June 21, 2005 at 8:55 pm
Richard, you know damn well DR is mediocre, at best. His early-season success is only slightly more meaningful (in terms of projecting the future) than the spring training success of Jesse Garcia.
June 21, 2005 at 8:57 pm
DR also has a .285 EqA this season.
June 21, 2005 at 8:58 pm
198 plate appearances is a decent sample size…
June 21, 2005 at 8:58 pm
Solid effort from Woody tonight. Let’s hope the bullpen can hold it.
June 21, 2005 at 9:01 pm
Ouch, 13-run eighth for the Yanks against TB:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....=250621110
Irrelevant to us, but ouch.
June 21, 2005 at 9:03 pm
There goes the scoreless streak. C’mon, Scotty.
June 21, 2005 at 9:03 pm
Williams: 6.7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR (96 Pitches, 55 Strikes)
Linebrink: 0.3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0, BB, 0 K, 0 HR (7 Pitches, 5 Strikes)
June 21, 2005 at 9:03 pm
Unless they pinch-hit for Linebrink, he should pitch the 8th.
June 21, 2005 at 9:04 pm
One thing I learned reading Bill James in the late seventies/early eighties is that sometimes you have to trust that the numbers are only temporary, and that players will regress toward the mean, or their own established level of performance.
Are 198 PA’s a more meaningful sample than the whole of DR’s career?
You’re fooling yourself, m’boy.
He may keep it up for the season, but baseball history is littered with such fluke performances. I wouldn’t want to make a living predicting such randomness, and I wouldn’t want to count on a continued fluke in CF.
June 21, 2005 at 9:06 pm
Lance, all that is correct to a point. You have to take into consideration the possibility that something has changed. Perhaps Roberts has changed his approach in some way or something to that effect. Maybe playing regularly has allowed him to get his timing right. Or maybe he’ll regress to the mean. Still, it isn’t necessarily a fluke.
June 21, 2005 at 9:07 pm
Giles has reached safely in 11 straight plate appearances. That ties the franchise record (held by Brian Giles).
June 21, 2005 at 9:08 pm
This is why I’d hit him leadoff…
June 21, 2005 at 9:08 pm
Incredible run by Giles. Wow.
June 21, 2005 at 9:09 pm
Nady sure would have made a good choice to bat for Sweeney here.
June 21, 2005 at 9:09 pm
Oh and DR has previously had to seasons in which he had a .275 EqA which isn’t that far from his current .285…
June 21, 2005 at 9:09 pm
I remember Winfield and Bip Roberts getting 8 straight hits.
11 times on base is pretty impressive.
June 21, 2005 at 9:09 pm
Make that “two seasons.” What’s with Wunsch?
June 21, 2005 at 9:10 pm
Lance: It is true that baseball history is littered with fluke performances. Question: When does a performance stop being a fluke? It would have been easy to dismiss, for example, Mark Loretta’s 2003 season based on his previous history and his age. But it turned out that he had reached a new level of ability. I’m not quite sure we can say the same about Roberts, but I’m a lot less sure we can dismiss it than I was, say, a month ago. It is possible that we’ve underestimated the guy.
June 21, 2005 at 9:10 pm
I wonder what the longest such streak is?
June 21, 2005 at 9:11 pm
15 (Bonds & Olerud)
June 21, 2005 at 9:12 pm
Useless footnote: I once saw Linebrink and Wunsch start against each other in a Cal League game. Stockton at San Jose, 1997.
June 21, 2005 at 9:13 pm
I think Jeter had a streak close to 15.
June 21, 2005 at 9:13 pm
Those two seasons were as a less-than-full-time player, in which his stats are skewed by advantageous matchups.
Funny how he’s never inspired anyone to commit to him in CF (and stick with that commitment) for a full season.
He’s a role player, and we should all know it.
June 21, 2005 at 9:16 pm
A lot of that is due to injury. I’m more worried about an injury than regression.
June 21, 2005 at 9:17 pm
Oh and http://kittys.ytmnd.com/.
I mean, what the hell?
June 21, 2005 at 9:20 pm
Geoff, Loretta was ALWAYS a good hitter. Injuries and an inability to impress the Mil. brass at shortstop kept him from posting impressive counting stats. When we acquired him (for that price, especially) I was ecstatic.
So many players have had great 200 PA runs (not that Roberts’ is “great”) that it’s not even worth running through them. Let’s get hold of ourselves, and make CF one of the positions high on our wish list.
Richard, I’d like some numbers on how many additional runs would be allowed if Nady were in CF. Can you do that?
I think we can all assume that MANY additional runs would be scored on offense.
June 21, 2005 at 9:20 pm
Why take out Linebrink?
June 21, 2005 at 9:22 pm
Nady is in the game. The good thing about having Nady as Klesko’s LIDR is that if the Padres do need a bat, at least we don’t have to suffer through Kerry Robinson flailing at empty air.
June 21, 2005 at 9:23 pm
Of course I can. 8 runs per one hundred games. Dave has hit better, though.
June 21, 2005 at 9:23 pm
I’m only worried about an injury because DR is supposedly a prince of a guy, and I would hate to see harm come to him.
Wouldn’t hurt the team a bit, though.
And apparently, Richard, “Aki gets the eighth.”
But I’d have sent Linebrink back out.
June 21, 2005 at 9:23 pm
Kerry Robinson can’t even hit Triple-A pitching.