In-Game Discussion: Padres vs Braves (18 May 2005)
Wed, May 18, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 12:35 p.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Adam Eaton (5-1, 3.42 ERA) vs Horacio Ramirez (2-2, 3.47)
Pads have won six in a row and 15 of their last 18. Every day it’s the same story: Fall behind early, stay close through the middle innings, have someone step up late to win it. Tuesday night’s hero was Khalil Greene, dropping the bat head on an 0-2 offering from Braves closer Dan Kolb to serve up a bases-loaded single with one out in the ninth. John Smoltz shut down the Friars most of the night, but Darrell May limited the Braves to one run over five innings to keep them within striking distance.
Akinori Otsuka surrendered a solo homer to Andruw Jones in the top of the eighth to extend Atlanta’s lead to 2-0, but the Padres answered with a run of their own off Smoltz in the bottom half. And then, after holding serve in the top of the ninth, the Friars went to work against Kolb:
Ryan Klesko: walk on 4 pitches
Brian Giles: ground single to right on 2-2 pitch
Phil Nevin: chopper off the plate to shortstop on 2-2 pitch, Klesko scores
Ramon Hernandez: ground single to left-center on 3-1 pitch, Giles to third
Sean Burroughs: intentional walk
Greene: line single to left-center on 0-2 pitch, Giles scores, good night everybody
With the Diamondbacks losing to Houston, the Padres now have first place to themselves in the NL West.
Pads wrap up the homestand Wednesday afternoon with a chance to sweep their second straight series against a tough NL East foe. No television today, but feel free to drop on by and chat during the game. The matchup:
AB BA OBP SLG
Eaton vs current Braves 57 .281 .339 .456
Ramirez vs current Padres 21 .333 .417 .619
Not a lot of at-bats against Eaton. The only homer belongs to Chipper Jones (.500/.556/1.125 in just 8 AB). Even fewer at-bats against Ramirez. Homers from Burroughs and Hernandez.
So, are you starting to feel it yet? Maybe just a little bit?
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May 18, 2005 at 1:36 am
I think you guys have got to be feeling it — the Dodgers are slumping and seem to want to prove all the preseason critics right all at once, the Giants are no better than a .500 team without Bonds, Schmidt, and Benitez, and the D-Backs, while likely a solid team, are not good enough to pull away with the division even if the opportunity presented itself…
…leaving the Padres in a nice position currently atop the division standings. I think a .560 winning percentage is a very good bet to take the NL West, and the Padres are definitely capable of doing that.
May 18, 2005 at 5:52 am
I know it’s a completely different team. And a completely different year. But it’s starting to feel a little like ‘98 for me.
That season was a blur, but I remember a lot of comebacks, a lot of good pitching performances, and a lot of clutch hits.
Peavy is starting to prove himself to be a true #1 starter, Eaton is finally showing some consistency — and those are the two most important SPs in my mind. If we’ve got two good guys at the top of the rotation, we’ve got a chance in every game.
By the way, even though he’s not flashy, you gotta love Dave Roberts. He’s bringing some energy to the lineup every night.
May 18, 2005 at 8:25 am
They are playing really well. Not crushing people which might make me think is a dominant team, but keeping it close and through skill and luck, winning. Luck is a big part of our winning all these tight games, but the cool thing is that luck is in the bank. Things may even out a bit, but unless we get exceptionally unlucky later in the season, we ought to be end up a healthy chunk of wins above our pythagorean projections. Let us hope.
Not to jinx anything, but we have a filthy bullpen. And I think both Linebrink and Otsuka can improve slightly.
My only gripe is that Bochy seems to be managing the offense by superstition and/or stubborness. The runs have come from a variety of sources, but they have not come from Nevin and Roberts. Their OPS during May is .703 and .680 respectively (team, including the pitchers, was .793). So we have been winning despite Bochy’s insistence on running the same starters out there every night. I think he is afraid of changing the line up and breaking the streak. Maybe something is to be said for consistency, but when you have Sweeney hitting 1.358 and Nady hitting .932 in May, you are just making the team weaker by not playing them.
Gripe, gripe. One thing I do like about Bochy is his management of pitchers. Rarely lets the starters get too far past 100 pitches, and very even inning allotment across the relievers. I very glad we don’t have Dusty Baker who rides his starters up to 130 pitches or counts on a few relievers in every tight situation. He does have a tendency to put not so great relievers into tight spots (Tankersly last year in a one run game in Philly; he blew up; overuse of Eddie Oropesa in the early part of last year; Falkenburg last night, but it worked OK).
Not that others are interested, but my girlfriend’s back (agreement that I give it a massage while watching my Tivo of the game) is now 9 for 9. I am nervous about today’s day game; no chance for the ritual. That said, I have in my head that Adam Eaton is going to throw the first Padre no-hitter at some point. Today maybe? I also had it my head that Kahlil Greene was going to hit the first Padre home run at Petco (wrong), so not exactly a reliable prediction system.
May 18, 2005 at 9:13 am
Agreed about Bochy’s use of his pitchers. Some of that is due to knowing he can rely on his bullpen. We can thank Kevin Towers for going out and building a very solid bullpen on the cheap.
Here’s hoping that Eaton can keep it going, and that maybe X can get more involved. Seems a shame to keep that kind of talent on the bench, but I guess if it’s working…
May 18, 2005 at 9:32 am
Still not buying all the talk of luck. They have scored 185 runs, given up 173 runs. The Padres record is 24-16. Their Pythagorean is 21-19. That means they are +3. That’s certain within the margin of error. That doesn’t seem to be extremely lucky or unlucky.
Only one team in the major has more than a three-game difference either way. That’s Arizona, which is +5. The Diamondbacks are 23-17. Their Pythagorean is 18-22. They are the frauds.
Here’s another thing: Sometimes it takes quite some time for the Pythagorean to catch up to reality. Last season, the Yankees quite a bit above their Pythagorean, mostly on the strength of a strong bullpen. They were the first 100-win team to not have a 15-game winner.
The Red Sox performed about the same or just below their Pythagorean last season. But none of this caught up to reality until Rivera showed he was mortal in Game 4 of the ALCS.
May 18, 2005 at 10:22 am
My luck comment is driven by our extraordinarily good 1 run game record. We are playing some very good teams very tight. That is skill. To consistently win those games is a bit lucky. Not all of it, but decent amount it. But I will take it. Also, I do think this team can be more offensively potent, so am hopeful that we can start winning a bit more decisively.
Arizona is crazy to have net negative runs and have such a strong record.
May 18, 2005 at 11:25 am
How about these numbers:
36.1 IP, 36 H, 14 BB, 15 SO
Ramirez is not a dominant pitcher and has a .265 BA against… We could destroy him…
Is Chipper in their lineup? If not, we could roll!
May 18, 2005 at 11:26 am
How about these numbers:
36.1 IP, 36 H, 14 BB, 15 SO
Ramirez is not a dominant pitcher and has a .265 BA against… We could destroy him…
Is Chipper in their lineup? If not, we could roll!
May 18, 2005 at 11:26 am
How about these numbers:
36.1 IP, 36 H, 14 BB, 15 SO
Ramirez is not a dominant pitcher and has a .265 BA against… We could destroy him…
Is Chipper in their lineup? If not, we could roll!
May 18, 2005 at 11:27 am
Sorry about the triple-post, my work computer is jacked up…
May 18, 2005 at 11:39 am
Does anyone have a Loretta update?
May 18, 2005 at 11:56 am
Jay: “I do think this team can be more offensively potent…”
Is this because Nevin and Greene have yet to hit near their normal levels, which isn’t likely to continue? because I’d argue that a few of our bench guys have combined for a full lineup slot’s worth of all-star caliber offense, which is also not likely to continue, balancing out any improvement from Nevin/Greene. The offense has been similar to last year thus far, and I predict it’ll stay about the same.
May 18, 2005 at 12:16 pm
Eric, that is a good point, that our bench has been stronger than we can hope for the rest of the season. My hope for increased potency comes from either better numbers out of Nevin/Roberts, or, at least, Sweeney/Nady getting a bigger share of their AB’s and thus producing better numbers. The season is just kind of starting for Greene; he my come down a bit from last year, but expect his numbers to increase from where he is now. I also remain hopeful on Burroughs and Loretta. Both have OPS below .800, but I think both can be above .800. Nevin/Roberts have a combined 250 ABs (roughly 20% of all or our ABs), while Sweeney/Nady have had about half that at 120. You need to let veterans play through (with Nevin) but you cannot just keep running guys out without checking the stats.
May 18, 2005 at 12:35 pm
They gave a semi-update of Loretta in the pregame talk. They said that he will not go on the DL, which of course is good. Blum is being activated, and I believe will start at second today, and Faulkenborg has been sent back to Portland.
May 18, 2005 at 12:43 pm
weird lineup for Atlanta…
May 18, 2005 at 12:44 pm
walk, nice! not that they count for anything… right McKeon?
May 18, 2005 at 12:46 pm
10 pitch inning by Eaton, keep that count down…
May 18, 2005 at 12:58 pm
Padres bullpen ERA: 2.76
May 18, 2005 at 1:00 pm
Tasty.
May 18, 2005 at 1:01 pm
DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!
May 18, 2005 at 1:01 pm
Bomb! Padres, 3-0. Greene may be getting hot.
May 18, 2005 at 1:03 pm
rollin’ rollin’ rollin’ - let’s keep these doggies rollin’!
May 18, 2005 at 1:04 pm
Hernandez is hitting .304. One day, everyone is going to wake up and say, man, Hell of a player. Not A’s or Padres fans, because they know. Maybe we can vote this guy on the All-Star team.
May 18, 2005 at 1:04 pm
aahhh…..an early lead, for a change.
May 18, 2005 at 1:08 pm
I voted for him last night - check out my article over at http://padres.mostvaluablenetwork.com - scroll down to “Walks, Rankings, and All Star Ballots”
Will the Padres know what to do with a lead?
Nice problem to have!
May 18, 2005 at 1:09 pm
My wife is at the game, she just left a message on my vmail that Greene’s homer went upper tank in the Western Metal Supply Co. Bldg.
May 18, 2005 at 1:11 pm
It took a 405 shot for him to hit that balcony last year.
Khalil’s back, Eaton’s locked in. And I’m trying not to get overly excited this early in the game…
May 18, 2005 at 1:12 pm
Greene has done that twice. And some opposing player did it recently. I think those are only ones to go upper level at the Supply.
May 18, 2005 at 1:12 pm
Yeah, Rich Campbell is there too, he said the same thing - It’s not just a series sweep, but a homestand sweep in the works…
May 18, 2005 at 1:13 pm
opposing pitcher breaks up the no-no
May 18, 2005 at 1:13 pm
doh, there goes the no-no. sorry Jay
May 18, 2005 at 1:16 pm
One year ago today the Big Unit pitched a perfect game vs. Atlanta.
May 18, 2005 at 1:16 pm
Hey Peter, good to see you here. Welcome!
May 18, 2005 at 1:17 pm
Cabrerra hit that balcony when the Marlins were in town. You’re right on, Kevin, Khalil’s been there twice, and Cabrerra once.
Not your prototypical huge, muscular guys you’d think would hit up there, but both have some amazing power for their size when they get all of a ball.
May 18, 2005 at 1:18 pm
Looks like changing the changing of his stance is doing Khalil some good, btw. Last night after the game, he said he’s going back to “what feels natural” instead of thinking about too much.
Natural is good.
May 18, 2005 at 1:20 pm
Fox South just played an interview with Marcus Giles. He says he is lobbying Atlanta to sign Brian when he is a free agent. He says Brian would like nothing more than to finish his career with me.
May 18, 2005 at 1:21 pm
Did Marcus tank that for his brother?
For the kids at home, that looks like a line drive in the boxscore.
May 18, 2005 at 1:22 pm
I’ve heard that quite a bit, Kevin. If I were Atlanta, I’d tell Marcus to start lobbying Brian to take a paycut to sign with them, and they’ll consider his request.
Giles will get have three things to choose from next year: Playing at home, playing with his brother, or going to the highest bidder. I don’t see either the Padres or the Braves being that highest bidder, honestly.
May 18, 2005 at 1:24 pm
Nevin pops up on the infield. Ugh.
May 18, 2005 at 1:24 pm
good analysis Funk
May 18, 2005 at 1:25 pm
Right, I agree. The Padres and Atlanta look to be winners, so that helps them. The Padres have to get younger in their starting eight at some point, but I’m not saying that means saying goodbye to Giles.
May 18, 2005 at 1:25 pm
if it wasn’t a line drive, what was it? Why not an error?
May 18, 2005 at 1:25 pm
I just got here, and missed Khalil’s bomb, but this is funny to watch the Braves fail to catch infield pops!
May 18, 2005 at 1:27 pm
nice!
May 18, 2005 at 1:27 pm
Yahoo says “R. Hernandez singled to pitcher, D. Jackson scored, B. Giles to third.” Can someone who’s watching explain what happened?
May 18, 2005 at 1:27 pm
Wow another HR from Khalil. I think he’s back. 6 RBI!
May 18, 2005 at 1:28 pm
Guys, on both pop ups, they were high pops, straight into the sun. The Braves fielders could not find the balls, and they both fell harmlessly to the ground.
May 18, 2005 at 1:29 pm
Sweet!
May 18, 2005 at 1:29 pm
If it’s lost in the sun it’s not an error?
May 18, 2005 at 1:30 pm
Everyone in the infield watched a pop up fall on that play, Geoff. It counts as a hit.
May 18, 2005 at 1:30 pm
M Giles had what appeared to be a good bead on the ball, but at the last second, he lost it, cringed and the ball fell to his right. On Ramon’s pop, LaRoche had the best bet, but there also appeared to be some confusion amongst the Braves has to who was calling for it. That and the sun.
May 18, 2005 at 1:31 pm
Rich just called again: Khalil 6, Braves 0
May 18, 2005 at 1:32 pm
Almost feel bad for the pitcher, almost….
May 18, 2005 at 1:32 pm
On an error, the ball has to be misplayed. If someone hits a ball and everyone stands there, it’s a hit. It’s stupid, but it’s true.
May 18, 2005 at 1:33 pm
Cool. Thanks for the info, guys. I gotta get back to work. Carry on…
May 18, 2005 at 1:34 pm
I guess the sun counts the same as a ball hitting a pebble and taking a bad hop, the mound, a base etc. Natural event as opposed to a player misplaying it.
May 18, 2005 at 1:34 pm
Remember the scene in Bad News Bears where the opposing pitcher fields a comebacker and holds it even when his own teammates are tackling him? The fat kids rounds the bases on an infield hit. That’s a home run. No error there.
May 18, 2005 at 1:35 pm
“stupid” that’s for sure, Kev. did you check out my article from last night?
May 18, 2005 at 1:37 pm
In other news, Boomer is pulled from the Sox / A’s game. His line:
1.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER
May 18, 2005 at 1:37 pm
It has nothing to do with the sun. If everyone just stands there in a comma and the ball rolls to the wall, it’s a hit.
May 18, 2005 at 1:39 pm
I didn’t read the article. Are you talking about the All-Stars and stuff?
May 18, 2005 at 1:40 pm
Ooooh oooooh, Jerry’s about to say what he did today.
This should be good!
May 18, 2005 at 1:41 pm
Ooooh oooooh, Jerry’s about to say what he did today.
This should be good!
May 18, 2005 at 1:42 pm
I was just replying to Eric’s question about whether a ball lost in the sun and then not caught is an error. I agree that it is a hit from an official scoring point of view, and the reason it would be would be the same as if a ball took a deflection off a base, pebble, or the mound and then is not played for whatever reason.
May 18, 2005 at 1:42 pm
yeah, I broke down my selections - among other things - (Ramon was my NL catcher)
May 18, 2005 at 1:43 pm
OK, Bruce. My bad. Go, Bears!
May 18, 2005 at 1:44 pm
Get Fick, Ojeda, and Sweeney in there to get some ABs
May 18, 2005 at 1:46 pm
No worries Kevin.
May 18, 2005 at 1:53 pm
Hernandez is hitting .309 now. Peter, those selections are probably on the money. But I’ll probably fill out my ballot with all Padres.
May 18, 2005 at 1:53 pm
Sorry if I’m asking a question that may have already asked — What’s the report on Mark Loretta?
May 18, 2005 at 1:54 pm
Eaton is still somewhat frustrating to watch, even in a game like this.
May 18, 2005 at 1:55 pm
I think someone asked about Loretta, but there is no answer as of yet.
May 18, 2005 at 1:58 pm
Here is the Union-Tribune story on Loretta. It says he might be out 3-4 days, they might DL him.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....moves.html
May 18, 2005 at 1:59 pm
I love our Padres but I’m too big of a ‘baseball’ fan to not go with deserving players - even if they play for the hated Yankees.
May 18, 2005 at 2:00 pm
Eaton is somewhat frustrating. He hasn’t been very efficient today, 85 pitches in 5 innings. But it’s hard to argue with the results, he’s getting the job done today.
May 18, 2005 at 2:00 pm
Thank you, Kevin.
May 18, 2005 at 2:02 pm
Yeah, I can see that, Peter. I think fans should do whatever they want. But I see your point on people being called “All-Stars” forever. I would like to see managers look at the best players from the past year and a half.
May 18, 2005 at 2:03 pm
Four pitches that inning.
May 18, 2005 at 2:04 pm
Eaton’s middle name is frustration. But I will take that easy four pitch inning any day.
May 18, 2005 at 2:04 pm
Through 6.0 IP, no BB and @ 89 pitches. Good work Adam!
May 18, 2005 at 2:04 pm
A four pitch inning — How’s that for efficiency? Must be get-away day.
May 18, 2005 at 2:07 pm
Sorry Kev, I’m not trying to criticize or be condescending, just saying I can’t bring myself to vote all one way…
“But I see your point on people being called “All-Stars” forever. I would like to see managers look at the best players from the past year and a half.” - EXACTLY!
May 18, 2005 at 2:08 pm
Frustration is better than Kobe Bryant’s middle name. His is Bean.
May 18, 2005 at 2:08 pm
What’s most impressive about Wilson Betemit’s arm is that his throws look so effortless. I’ve seen three plays this series where I thought he was lobbing it to first, but the ball flew across the diamond like a bullet. Kinda like a Mariano Rivera reverse-changeup kinda thing.
May 18, 2005 at 2:09 pm
Sorry Kev, I’m not trying to criticize or be condescending, just saying I can’t bring myself to vote all one way… — I didn’t think you were.
May 18, 2005 at 2:10 pm
Anyone notice Giles’ OPS is back up over .900?
(.286/.414/.496)
May 18, 2005 at 2:12 pm
Ted Leitner said that Giles is hitting .525 over the past 10 games or so.
May 18, 2005 at 2:13 pm
“For Love of the Game” quote:
“Let’s get out of here before we get our asses kicked twice in one night.”
Should we expect another quick inning?
May 18, 2005 at 2:14 pm
Reports are saying Kolb is done as the closer.
May 18, 2005 at 2:15 pm
I told everyone this offseason that I wished the Padres could trade Nevin and some parts for Andruw Jones.
May 18, 2005 at 2:16 pm
Wow, a fan in front of me last night voiced that same opinion. I thought he was being a bit quick. Any idea of who they plan to use? Smoltz? (jk)
May 18, 2005 at 2:16 pm
seems like when Eaton misses location, it’s always over the middle of the plate.
May 18, 2005 at 2:16 pm
He’d fit well here
May 18, 2005 at 2:17 pm
SAN DIEGO — Danny Kolb was moved out of the closer’s role by Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox on Wednesday, a day after the right-hander was charged with his third blown save and his fourth loss.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....id=2063235
May 18, 2005 at 2:18 pm
Apparently we’re not the only west coast team beating up on an east coast one A’s 10 - Red Sox 1
May 18, 2005 at 2:19 pm
The announcers just said they will go by matchups and such, although they said the most logical choice would be Reitsma.
May 18, 2005 at 2:21 pm
Franco is going to pinch hit here. If the Padres were going with matchups, they would bring back Orosco.
May 18, 2005 at 2:22 pm
ESPN.com says Brian Lawrence is coming in. Does that make any sense? Throwing between starts?
May 18, 2005 at 2:23 pm
ESPN.com was all wrong. Idiots!