In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Giants (29 May 2005)
Sun, May 29, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (7-1, 3.49 ERA) vs Jason Schmidt (3-1, 4.79 ERA)
previews: ESPN | CBS | SI | Padres.com
Just got in from Vegas; thanks to Jay for posting the key pitcher-batter matchups in yesterday’s comments. Here they are:
Good: (AB/BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) Sweeney: 20/.350/.458/.750/1.208 Hernandez: 15/.400/.526/.867/1.393 Jackson: 13/.308/.438/.615/1.053 Blum: 13/.231/.286/.538/.824
Ugly: Nevin: 20/.200/.261/.250/.511 Klesko: 41/.171/.286/.317/.603 Giles: 27/.074/.324/.222/.547
Good: Bonds (who cares, but his OPS is 1.227) Alou 16/.375/.412/.813/1.224 Tucker 8/.500/.500/.625/1.125 Durham 16/.250/.400/.688/1.088 Alfonzo 20/.300/.391/.600/.991 Snow 21/.286/.348/.524/.872
Ugly: Vizquel OPS with 6 AB .250; Marquis Grissom (out) has an OPS .274 in 28 AB's
Jay also had this commentary to offer, and I think it’s spot on: “I know it is asking for way, way too much, but today looks like a day to see Nady, Sweeney in there (I say give Nady a go if your big guns are so bad against Schmidt).”
The good news is, Sweeney and Jackson in are in today’s lineup. The bad news? Giles and Klesko play, Nady sits.
X Factor
Xavier Nady started in left field Saturday. Batting seventh, he singled in four at-bats. He also drove in the tying run in the seventh on what should have been an infield hit; unfortunately first base umpire C.B. Bucknor missed the call at first, so it was just an RBI ground out. Nady had one other nice at-bat; in the fourth, after falling behind 0-2, he worked the count full before flying to the warning track in left.
Pads have already clinched their second straight series win on the road against a division rival and a winning record on the road trip. Today they go for the sweep against one of the tougher right-handers in baseball.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 29, 2005 at 1:06 pm
Sweeney’s in. Nady’s not.
May 29, 2005 at 1:15 pm
Klesko should be on first. Can’t be swinging at pitches in the dirt.
May 29, 2005 at 1:16 pm
What was the count?
May 29, 2005 at 1:16 pm
Full count. Geez, now Vizquel saves a run. Giles gets the infield single but Blum holds at third.
May 29, 2005 at 1:18 pm
Yeah, I don’t get the number of hit-and-runs that Bochy calls.
May 29, 2005 at 1:18 pm
Schmidt is struggling with location. This would be a good time to do some damage.
May 29, 2005 at 1:18 pm
But if Klesko was on first, I guess Vizquel would have gotten him on the force at second.
May 29, 2005 at 1:19 pm
Four-pitch walk to Sweeney. Ramon has to take a pitch. He does, and it’s a high strike.
May 29, 2005 at 1:20 pm
I’m not sure he would’ve gotten Klesko at second. That ball was practically into center field. Would’ve been real close.
Schmidt gets a gift call on a low 1-1 pitch.
May 29, 2005 at 1:20 pm
Routine grounder to second should get them out of the inning but Durham kicks it. 1-0 Pads.
May 29, 2005 at 1:21 pm
We’ll take it.
May 29, 2005 at 1:21 pm
Durham does not move well to his right at all.
May 29, 2005 at 1:21 pm
Danica Patrick finishes fourth.
May 29, 2005 at 1:22 pm
Dammit, can someone tell Khalil not to swing at the first pitch with the bases loaded when the opposing pitcher can’t locate?
And can they tell Roberts not to try to steal third base with Giles up while they’re at it?
May 29, 2005 at 1:23 pm
Geoff or anyone else,
Have you read the Peavy piece in ESPN Magazine?
May 29, 2005 at 1:27 pm
Eaton serves up a leadoff homer to Jason Ellison but it’s just foul. Then he serves up another that stays fair.
Kevin, I haven’t read the Peavy piece. Do you happen to have the URL handy?
May 29, 2005 at 1:28 pm
it’s on the front of the site
May 29, 2005 at 1:29 pm
Cool, I’ll check it out. Ball is carrying well today.
May 29, 2005 at 1:31 pm
The most fascinating thing in there, at least the thing that I did not know, was that he fired Scott Boras when Boras told him to hold out last winter.
May 29, 2005 at 1:41 pm
Eaton had a six-pitch at-bat after Greene and Jackson swung at first pitches. Who are the professional hitters here?
May 29, 2005 at 1:48 pm
Nice shot by Blum, off the wall in right. Ryno tries to lay down a bunt?
May 29, 2005 at 1:51 pm
That was a really good AB by Giles.
May 29, 2005 at 1:51 pm
Can’t find the ESPN article on Peavy but here’s a pretty cool little read:
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/d.....916346.htm
Giles singles home Blum. Nice at-bat.
May 29, 2005 at 1:52 pm
Great at-bat by Giles. He worked him until he got his pitch. He’s on pace for about 130 walks.
May 29, 2005 at 1:53 pm
Yep, he worked the count and then got a good pass on a pretty tough pitch.
I’ve got Schmidt at 56 pitches through 2.1 IP?
May 29, 2005 at 1:53 pm
You have to have ESPN Insider to get the Peavy article.
May 29, 2005 at 1:53 pm
57, according to ESPN
May 29, 2005 at 1:54 pm
Damn, I thought Sweeney had that one. Just missed it.
May 29, 2005 at 1:54 pm
Sweeney put a heck of a swing on that ball.
May 29, 2005 at 1:56 pm
Has anyone seen Giles’ stats this month? .364/.462/.682. He has 17 BB to 6 K going into today.
May 29, 2005 at 1:56 pm
These Giants announcers are people who need to be phased out, as George Carlin would say.
May 29, 2005 at 1:59 pm
Giles has been great. Great strike zone judgement. With Bonds out of the game, not sure how many others would be better.
May 29, 2005 at 1:59 pm
Dogs score 3 in top of 1st @ Arizona …
May 29, 2005 at 1:59 pm
Giles’ numbers including today (for May): .378/.477/.689
May 29, 2005 at 2:00 pm
Schmidt is at 64 pitches through three. Gotta keep the pressure on him, get into their bullpen.
May 29, 2005 at 2:00 pm
I’d like to see Arizona beat up on the Dodgers. I really think LA is the bigger threat (and by a lot).
May 29, 2005 at 2:00 pm
Schmidt: 64 pitches through 3 innings.
May 29, 2005 at 2:00 pm
Pitching stats after top of 3rd …
Pitches-strikes - A Eaton 29-23; J Schmidt 64-36.
Ground balls-fly balls - A Eaton 2-4; J Schmidt 4-5.
Batters faced - A Eaton 7; J Schmidt 15.
May 29, 2005 at 2:02 pm
Richard - I agree that Dodgers are bigger threat than D-backs … with Werth and Gagne back for Dodgers, they are getting deeper at a time when that really matters …
May 29, 2005 at 2:03 pm
Eaton: 32 strikes, 9 balls. Keep dealing.
May 29, 2005 at 2:04 pm
The Dodgers concern me. I don’t think Arizona’s pitching can hold up over the long haul.
May 29, 2005 at 2:04 pm
Padres have the second best odds of making the playoffs. St. Louis is #1.
May 29, 2005 at 2:06 pm
NL West Champions (BP Postseason Odds):
Padres 65.38405
Dodgers 16.49115
Diamondbacks 10.33341
Giants 7.61943
Rockies .17195
I believe the Rockies’ chances are somewhat less than that.
May 29, 2005 at 2:07 pm
More on what you pointed out, Richard. Giles is second in the majors in BB/K ratio with 1.70. David Eckstein is first. Loretta is sixth. In walks per plate appearance, Giles is fifth. Klesko is 10th.
May 29, 2005 at 2:07 pm
And that is why you don’t stop running! Durham for MVP!
May 29, 2005 at 2:07 pm
Durham clanked another one. They’re booing him. Greene hits a popup into short right and Durham just plain drops it. Khalil on second.
May 29, 2005 at 2:09 pm
I don’t know what Ray Durham is thinking about, but it sure ain’t baseball. We’ll take it, though.
May 29, 2005 at 2:09 pm
Good call on Khalil’s running, Richard. Grant is giving him props right now.
May 29, 2005 at 2:09 pm
Bat AB by DJ. First pitch swinging again. Falls behind 0-2, then hits a routine grounder to short, Khalil stays at second.
May 29, 2005 at 2:10 pm
Farm Report: McAnulty with his 6th HR … Tagg with 3 hits while playing 1B … last night for AA Mobile … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_mobaax_1
May 29, 2005 at 2:13 pm
Man, Roberts creamed that one. Schmidt is fooling no-one.
May 29, 2005 at 2:13 pm
Dave Roberts has been excellent this year.
May 29, 2005 at 2:13 pm
Roberts, double. Who would have thought that a slugging pct. between 460 and 470 would be his strength so far.
May 29, 2005 at 2:14 pm
Schmidt is over 80 pitches.
May 29, 2005 at 2:17 pm
Great AB from Blum. Works the 2-out walk. Schmidt is up to 86 pitches.
May 29, 2005 at 2:17 pm
And Klesko hacks at the first pitch in the dirt.
May 29, 2005 at 2:18 pm
Klesko can’t do anything against Schmidt.
May 29, 2005 at 2:19 pm
Hey, Richard, do you want to trade links on our sites?
May 29, 2005 at 2:20 pm
Pitching stats after top of 4th (3-1 Padres) …
Pitches-strikes - A Eaton 42-33; J Schmidt 88-52.
Ground balls-fly balls - A Eaton 3-4; J Schmidt 5-6.
Batters faced - A Eaton 10; J Schmidt 21.
May 29, 2005 at 2:21 pm
Roberts this year: .288/.361/.470
75th Percentile PECOTA: .291/.362/.376
The BA and OBP weren’t so unlikely, but even his 90th Percentile PECOTA for Slugging is only .404.
He’s only stealing at a 62% rate, though. It’d be 69% if it weren’t for getting called out when he was safe the other day.
May 29, 2005 at 2:22 pm
Kev, I don’t have your site in my links? I thought I did. I’d gladly do the swap.
May 29, 2005 at 2:23 pm
A loud single and a sure double lands three feet foul.
May 29, 2005 at 2:24 pm
I keep reading here about Roberts hitting the ball well, and his SLG reflects it … but I’ve only seen a few of his ABs on TV and he’s looked weak to me … wildish swings … no authority on the ball when he does make contact … I know “small sample size” … but I wonder which “small sample size” is right?
May 29, 2005 at 2:24 pm
Roberts has an ugly swing, but it seems to be effective.
May 29, 2005 at 2:26 pm
That was Weisbarth the other day? haha
May 29, 2005 at 2:27 pm
Dave Roberts has a VORP of 9.1. That’s good for 11th in the Majors (among Centerfielders). And he missed a chunk of time in April.
May 29, 2005 at 2:28 pm
Vasgersian didn’t seem to understand there wasn’t a force at second.
May 29, 2005 at 2:29 pm
OK, Rich, you’re up.
May 29, 2005 at 2:30 pm
Ryno is 6th among Major League Leftfielders in VORP with a 14.6. I’m browsing the BP stats page, obviously.
May 29, 2005 at 2:31 pm
What the hell was Adam doing on that throw to home?
May 29, 2005 at 2:32 pm
It’s really only the fourth inning?
May 29, 2005 at 2:32 pm
I believe he was screening Ramon.
May 29, 2005 at 2:33 pm
Last year, Payton only managed a 9.5 VORP over the course of the season.
May 29, 2005 at 2:34 pm
He hits Matheny with the bases loaded? Mike freakin’ Matheny? WTF!
May 29, 2005 at 2:34 pm
How do you walk in the tying run after giving an intentional pass to the guy before him?
May 29, 2005 at 2:35 pm
game-tying HBP, jeez.
May 29, 2005 at 2:35 pm
Not walk, but HBP rather.
May 29, 2005 at 2:35 pm
Interesting comparison of last year’s VORP for Payton with this year’s for Roberts.
Eaton survives the inning, despite himself.
May 29, 2005 at 2:36 pm
D-backs get a pair in bottom of 2nd … now trail 4-2 …
May 29, 2005 at 2:37 pm
Thru 4 full (3-3 tie) …
Pitches-strikes - A Eaton 42-33; J Schmidt 88-52.
Ground balls-fly balls - A Eaton 3-4; J Schmidt 5-6.
Batters faced - A Eaton 10; J Schmidt 21.
May 29, 2005 at 2:38 pm
Payton was really bad and Roberts is surprisingly good. Not the biggest realization, but I was surprised how much worse Payton was than I recalled and how much better Roberts is than I thought.
May 29, 2005 at 2:39 pm
Farm Report: Fernando Jr. now hitting .348 … hiths 4th HR yesterday … Kottaras now hitting .295 … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_bakafx_1
May 29, 2005 at 2:41 pm
Thanks for the updates, LM. This morning’s U-T says Bozied is set to rejoin Portland today.
Base hit Giles. Another solid AB.
May 29, 2005 at 2:42 pm
Bochy must be thinking, hey, I ignored the percentages on Giles, and I’m right. But I hope he was awake for Klesko’s at-bats.
May 29, 2005 at 2:42 pm
.425 OBP on the season for Giles.
May 29, 2005 at 2:43 pm
Giles steals another base? Wow.
May 29, 2005 at 2:43 pm
Now Giles thinks he is Tim Raines.
May 29, 2005 at 2:43 pm
Sweeney is making great contact today.
May 29, 2005 at 2:44 pm
Sweeney puts another one to the warning track. Schmidt is now at 100 pitches.
May 29, 2005 at 2:45 pm
Look at Giles go. I take back everything I said about that trade.
May 29, 2005 at 2:45 pm
.425 is good for 8th in the Majors. Ramon comes through!
May 29, 2005 at 2:45 pm
And Ramon hacks at the first pitch. It was a good cut, but was he watching what Giles and Sweeney did?
Base hit, nevermind.
May 29, 2005 at 2:46 pm
Brower is throwing in the bullpen with one out in the fifth for the Giants. This is what we want.
May 29, 2005 at 2:47 pm
WARP1 for Brian this season: 3.1
WARP1 for Bay/Perez this season: 2.3
May 29, 2005 at 2:48 pm
Hermey puts a charge in one! 6 to 3, San Diego!
May 29, 2005 at 2:48 pm
Sweet! Two-run jack Greenie. Time to get Schmidt out of there, I’d say.
May 29, 2005 at 2:48 pm
Hernandez is having a nice season. Bochy is right, the more you see him, the more you like him.
May 29, 2005 at 2:50 pm
What’s Greene slugging, Richard?
May 29, 2005 at 2:51 pm
Great game so far. Re: Hernandez, I think we are going to end up overpaying him through 4 years precisely because everyone, fans and players alike, like him more and more.
May 29, 2005 at 2:51 pm
Same comp by WARP3: 5.0 to 3.8 (advantage Padres)
May 29, 2005 at 2:53 pm
Back of the envelope calculation: .469
May 29, 2005 at 2:53 pm
He may be the kind of guy you have to overpay, because of his effect on a pitching staff and Bochy is partial to catchers with intangibles.
May 29, 2005 at 2:53 pm
DJ steals second, then slides off the bag and is tagged out to end the inning. Irritating, but we’ll take the 6-3 lead without complaint.
May 29, 2005 at 2:55 pm
Hermey: .265/.333/.469
May 29, 2005 at 2:55 pm
I really don’t like the idea of giving a catcher entering his 30s a 4-year deal. I love what Ramon has done for us, but I just think that has the chance to cripp