In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Diamondbacks (24 May 2005)
Tue, May 24, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 6:40 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Adam Eaton (6-1, 3.35 ERA) vs Russ Ortiz (4-2, 5.11 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
Padres finally lost a series in May, dropping two of three to the Mariners in Seattle. The offense sputtered badly in the last two games and looks to get back on track in the desert.
AB BA OBP SLG
Eaton vs current Diamondbacks 159 .283 .363 .465
Ortiz vs current Padres 206 .248 .342 .359
Big damage from Luis Gonzalez (.370/.469/.815 in 27 AB), Royce Clayton (.455/.600/.636 in 11 AB), and Alex Cintron (.353/.421/.647 in 17 AB). Eaton has pretty well neutralized Shawn Green (.205/.250/.341 in 44 AB) over the years. Overall, opponents are hitting .259/.316/.448 (think Matt LeCroy) against Eaton on the season, but just .228/.286/.281 with RISP (weaker version of Rey Ordonez).
On the other side, Ortiz is struggling with Arizona in the early going but getting some wins despite poor numbers. He’s averaging fewer than six innings per start, striking out just 3.83 batters per 9 innings, and allowing the opposition to hit .305/.386/.465 against him. Lefties have put up alarming numbers (.374/.442/.551). Padres having the most success against Ortiz are Brian Giles (.429/.636/.500 in 14 AB) and Sean Burroughs (.455/.500/.545 in 11 AB). Dave Roberts (.143/.217/.143 in 21 AB) hasn’t done much, so maybe they’ll unleash their secret weapon, Xavier Nady. Then again, maybe not.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 23, 2005 at 11:14 pm
I expect them to play X almost as much as I expect them to take my suggestion to play Sweeney at first. heh
May 24, 2005 at 11:19 am
Nevin needs time to work his way out of his slump. Whether or not you play him through his slump over a hotter bench player depends on if you believe the “time” he needs is at-bats or days. If AB’s are what he needs, then sitting him for a hotter player will only prolong his slump, whereas if days are what he needs, then you play Sweeney/Nady until the days of his slump have apparently expired.
May 24, 2005 at 11:42 am
Anyone else thinking about going to BP’s “Pizza Feed”? As it stands now, I’m planning to be there! Here’s info from the daily email I get froM BP (as a “BASIC SUBSCRIBER”, which is free) …
EVENTS
For the second consecutive summer, Baseball Prospectus and the San Diego Padres will be hosting a Pizza Feed at PETCO Park. Padres General Manager Kevin Towers will speak at what promises to be an exhilarating event. The Pizza Feed will take place in the Padres’ new indoor facility, the Auditorium.
The event is scheduled for Friday, June 24. The Padres play the Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 p.m. PST that night. The Pizza Feed will take place prior to the start of the game. The price, which includes tickets to the game in Section 302 (Upper Infield Reserved), will be about $20, with further details to be provided soon.
For more information or to reserve your tickets:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/events/
May 24, 2005 at 12:13 pm
Thanks for the heads-up, LM! I’m going to try to make it down there myself. Maybe we can get a bunch of Ducksnorters (?) to represent.
On an unrelated note, Sean Thompson’s column is back at Scout.com:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....type=story
Entertaining stuff.
May 24, 2005 at 12:45 pm
Thanks for the link, LM. I never read my daily e-mails from BP closely and I wouldn’t have seen it.
May 24, 2005 at 5:57 pm
Here’s a fun web page … http://www.baseballprospectus......s_odds.php … says Padres have 43% chance of winning NL West + 5% chance on winning the wild card … sounds good to me!
May 24, 2005 at 6:07 pm
Question: should the Padres attempt to trade for Danny Graves? I guess I don’t think so … they need a bat & starter more than another reliever, obviously … but I think Graves is an average pitcher, and so if he replaces a below-average pitcher, then the team gets better. So, who’s our worst pitcher? Reyes? No one else seems “below average” (unless you count May) … eh, just thinking it thru … somebody’s gonna trade for Graves, and get better as a result.
May 24, 2005 at 6:30 pm
Falkenborg got called up to replace Loretta. I’d rather have Graves than Falkenborg.
May 24, 2005 at 6:44 pm
Have you seen Graves pitch this year? He’s horrible…I’d rather see some of the scrubs we had in the bullpen last year here than Graves.
1-0 Pads
May 24, 2005 at 6:46 pm
I see that Blum gets the start at second tonight and is batting second. Surely there is a better candidate to bat second, isn’t there? Burroughs would be a great option hypothetically, but we are long way from the hypothetical when dealing with Burroughs these days. But nonetheless leadoff triple from Roberts leads to a run driven in by Blum’s groundout up the middle. 1-0 Pads.
May 24, 2005 at 6:47 pm
Pads are eighth in MLB this year in P/PA:
http://tinyurl.com/csl8j
May 24, 2005 at 6:47 pm
Mark - no, haven’t seen Graves pitch this year … good catch! But, it’s never obvious how fast a guy can go from 40+ saves to “horrible”. Let us know how you think Falkenborg looks
FARM NOTE: Here’s a note from today’s BA Daily Dish … Keep an eye on: Padres righthander Clayton Hamilton, who improved to 7-1, 2.11 with seven shutout innings, allowing two hits and striking out nine in low Class A Fort Wayne’s 1-0 win over Clinton. Hamilton, a 2004 17th-round pick out of Penn State whose fastball has topped out at 94 mph, has limited Midwest League hitters to a .204 average.
May 24, 2005 at 6:49 pm
I only know how bad Graves has been when I had him on a fantasy team and kept seeing his era for the night well up into double figures including a really nice 135.0 era the other night for 1 inning.
May 24, 2005 at 6:52 pm
I’d like to make Ortiz throw lots of pitches tonight, see if we can induce one of his patented fits of wildness.
May 24, 2005 at 6:54 pm
That was sweet seeing Cruz run straight backwards trying to catch Ramon’s hit, plus the audio on the FSN broadcast had this low groan from the crowd when Ramon crushed it to center. Nice shot 3-0 Pads with the big two out double by Ramon.
May 24, 2005 at 6:57 pm
Ortiz threw 28 pitches that inning. Hopefully Eaton won’t want to match him
May 24, 2005 at 6:58 pm
Very solid. A quick first from Eaton would be nice.
May 24, 2005 at 6:58 pm
Nice start tonight…let’s go Adam…nice quick inning..
May 24, 2005 at 7:01 pm
I can’t stand Counsell. Not that my irrational dislike for him caused Eaton to hit him, but he always seems to be a thorn in the Pads’ side.
May 24, 2005 at 7:02 pm
well..if we’re going to hit someone…the leadoff guy with a 3 run lead isn’t a bad choice.
May 24, 2005 at 7:03 pm
So much for the quick start for Eaton. Two runners in scoring position for Glaus.
May 24, 2005 at 7:04 pm
Is there wind blowing out?
May 24, 2005 at 7:07 pm
Nice escape by Eaton, Green looked unhappy with that called third stike at the knees.
May 24, 2005 at 7:07 pm
Wells up’d his ERA to 6.81 tonight … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=250524114
May 24, 2005 at 7:08 pm
Funny I don’t miss Wells at all.
May 24, 2005 at 7:13 pm
I don’t miss watching him pitch…but I think he was a good guy to have on the team here..
May 24, 2005 at 7:15 pm
I don’t disagree with you to that he was good to have on the team, but I wouldn’t have paid him what Boston did. As much as anything his performance this year bears out the risks involved.
May 24, 2005 at 7:16 pm
Exactly…there was no way the Padres should’ve paid him what Boston offered.
May 24, 2005 at 7:16 pm
Another leadoff hitter on allowed by Eaton, this time with a double. He has to get the next three out between Clayton, Snyder and the pitcher.
May 24, 2005 at 7:19 pm
Time to put some more runs on the board. For some reason I think of the BOB like Coors. You can never have too many runs.
May 24, 2005 at 7:25 pm
6 straight balls by Ortiz with two outs.
May 24, 2005 at 7:25 pm
Ortiz is such an enigma.
May 24, 2005 at 7:25 pm
consistently horrible ratios, consistently decent results.
May 24, 2005 at 7:26 pm
two quick outs followed by two 4-pitch walks.
May 24, 2005 at 7:26 pm
2 straight walks, maybe they were pitching around Nevin and Ramon to pitch to Judy Burroughs.
May 24, 2005 at 7:27 pm
Ball 10
May 24, 2005 at 7:28 pm
Ball 11
May 24, 2005 at 7:28 pm
ooowwwhhh…diss.
May 24, 2005 at 7:29 pm
Let’s go Greenie….time to make him pay..
May 24, 2005 at 7:29 pm
Another one, 12 of last 13 pitches were balls. Let’s see if Khalil can benefit.
May 24, 2005 at 7:30 pm
:-/
May 24, 2005 at 7:30 pm
I would have kept taking
May 24, 2005 at 7:30 pm
Any benefit from that is a 60 pitch total through 3 for Ortiz.
May 24, 2005 at 7:31 pm
Jason Schmidt struck out the side in the 1st in his return from the DL
May 24, 2005 at 7:34 pm
Nice play there by Blum…
May 24, 2005 at 7:34 pm
I know it’s water under the bridge, but why the heck is Khalil hacking at a 1-0 pitch from a guy who has just walked the bases loaded?
May 24, 2005 at 7:35 pm
Pretty good thought Geoff…he’s got to make him throw a strike before the bat leaves his shoulder.
May 24, 2005 at 7:38 pm
after the Gil Meche game, I’ve learned not to get too excited about working up opponents’ pitch counts without scoring.
May 24, 2005 at 7:42 pm
Even Eaton knows better than to swing without making him throw a strike.
May 24, 2005 at 7:42 pm
See, Adam knows to make him throw a strike.
May 24, 2005 at 7:43 pm
Eaton walks!
May 24, 2005 at 7:43 pm
Ugh.
May 24, 2005 at 7:43 pm
Bunt him over Dave.
May 24, 2005 at 7:44 pm
Roberts sure can look bad sometimes.
May 24, 2005 at 7:44 pm
What was Roberts doing swinging at that pitch? In the dirt.
May 24, 2005 at 7:44 pm
Think he sees a fastball this at-bat?
May 24, 2005 at 7:46 pm
That was ugly on all sides.
May 24, 2005 at 7:46 pm
That was interesting. For those not watching, Roberts hit a grounder to first and tagged the bag then threw to second. Ball went into left field but Eaton had his back to the play and retreated to first.
May 24, 2005 at 7:46 pm
He did get the fastball, but couldn’t do anything with it.
May 24, 2005 at 7:47 pm
And Blum is up there hacking too! Take some pitches.
May 24, 2005 at 7:48 pm
As Grace just noted on the telecast, the DBacks are paying a lot of attention to Eaton at first.
May 24, 2005 at 7:49 pm
How does he get that 3-1 call to Blum? No matter, it’s a walk anyway.
May 24, 2005 at 7:50 pm
That called second strike on Blum was ridiculous for someone with Ortiz’s control tonight.
May 24, 2005 at 7:51 pm
Nice cut by Ryno.
May 24, 2005 at 7:51 pm
The 2-0 pitch, not the 2-1 pitch.
May 24, 2005 at 7:52 pm
That was a nice cut.
May 24, 2005 at 7:52 pm
Nobody seems real interested in letting Ortiz dig his own grave out there. What’s up with that?
May 24, 2005 at 7:52 pm
They shouldn’t be this aggressive.
May 24, 2005 at 7:53 pm
Yeah, that’s what I meant. I must have a delay with the mlb.com tv.
May 24, 2005 at 7:53 pm
Not very smart approaches at the plate these last two innings. Ortiz shouldn’t even be in the game.
May 24, 2005 at 7:54 pm
Even if you get a pitch to hit, there’s the risk of making an out. If you take it, there are more pitches he’ll have to struggle to throw strikes with. I’m disappointed in their approach this inning (and last)
May 24, 2005 at 7:54 pm
Giles swung at the first pitch. What’s that about?
May 24, 2005 at 7:54 pm
Yeah they have really let Ortiz off the hook, but we shouldn’t be surprised. This is what they did to Meche the other night.
May 24, 2005 at 7:56 pm
And wasn’t Roberts supposed to provide superior defense in center? That’s a catchable ball.
Nice play by Burroughs.
May 24, 2005 at 7:56 pm
Deja vu all over again. Cruz leads off with a double.
May 24, 2005 at 7:59 pm
I think it is obvious to say that Burroughs’ defense is the only thing keeping him in the lineup right now.
May 24, 2005 at 8:00 pm
This game has taken a turn for the stupid.
May 24, 2005 at 8:00 pm
isn’t “deja vu all over again” redundant? everyone says it, though.
May 24, 2005 at 8:01 pm
Grace just made the ridiculous assertion that Eaton saved a run by knocking that one down from Ortiz. That ball wasn’t leaving the infield.
May 24, 2005 at 8:01 pm
That was a brutal swing by Counsell.
May 24, 2005 at 8:01 pm
Probably Eric, but I prove your point.
May 24, 2005 at 8:02 pm
Wow that was a nervous play to end the inning.
May 24, 2005 at 8:02 pm
Grace is mistaken. Eaton made himself face one more batter that inning by not either making the play or letting it get through to Blum.
Nice play covering on the grounder to second to end the inning, though.
May 24, 2005 at 8:03 pm
Mark Grace was never the brightest bulb on the tree. That could’ve been a disaster since it would’ve been the 3rd out.
May 24, 2005 at 8:06 pm
Re “deja vu all over again”, we can thank Yogi for that one:
http://www.tommcmahon.net/2004....._of_d.html
May 24, 2005 at 8:06 pm
Nice job, Phil. It’s about damn time!
May 24, 2005 at 8:06 pm
Nice. HR for Nevin, to right even. Maybe that is a sign that he can turn his slump around.
May 24, 2005 at 8:07 pm
I’ll second that Geoff.
May 24, 2005 at 8:11 pm
Good stroke from Eaton. Let’s see if Roberts can make something happen.
May 24, 2005 at 8:12 pm
Did the Arizona manager fall asleep on the bench? How do you leave Ortiz in this long?
May 24, 2005 at 8:12 pm
Abelated DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG!DONG! for Nevin.
The D-Backs are having their heads handed to them
“Excuse me, D-Backs. We have your heads. Would you like them?”
May 24, 2005 at 8:13 pm
With 2 outs does Ortiz really think that Eaton is a threat to steal?
May 24, 2005 at 8:14 pm
Just a terrible at bat by Roberts.
May 24, 2005 at 8:14 pm
“Deja vu all over again” is a supposed Yogi-ism. I thought everybody knew that.
May 24, 2005 at 8:15 pm
Sweet, we got the home run call from Lance!
Would someone teach Roberts how to at least foul off that inside breaking ball?
May 24, 2005 at 8:20 pm
Eaton got away with one. Roberts did a much better job tracking that ball.
May 24, 2005 at 8:20 pm
Nice play by Dave “Fifth Outfielder/Pinch Runner” Roberts. At least it sounded nice on the radio.
May 24, 2005 at 8:21 pm
Perhaps I am nitpicking with Eaton, but is anyone impressed with his new so-called tighter curve or slider, whatever the pitch is? I miss the old slow curve even if it was sometimes wild or hung.
May 24, 2005 at 8:24 pm
What does Eaton throw these days: 4-seamer, sinker, curve, cutter and change?
May 24, 2005 at 8:25 pm
Good call, Bruce. I haven’t really thought too much about Eaton’s new breaking ball. What I do like is that he’s been more consistent so far this year.
May 24, 2005 at 8:26 pm
Yeah that is why I was hesitant to nitpick. You can’t argue with the results this year, but there are times when the tighter curve looks really good, and times where it goes up there flat. I still don’t think he has good control of his cutter though.
May 24, 2005 at 8:27 pm
Bruce, while the old curve certainly LOOKED impressive, it couldn’t be thrown when behind in the count for fear of not getting the call. Hitters pretty much took it, got ahead in the count, and waited for the fastball. Eaton’s fatball is good, but it ain’t THAT good.
May 24, 2005 at 8:28 pm
Man, I am so glad Klesko is healthy this year.
May 24, 2005 at 8:28 pm
When Ryno is swinging well, it is a rare time when violence can look so beautiful.
May 24, 2005 at 8:29 pm
And Giles promptly bails out Ortiz. It’s up to Nevin.
May 24, 2005 at 8:30 pm
I hear ya Lance, like Geoff said, you can’t really complain about the his performance so far, he has been consistantly solid.
May 24, 2005 at 8:31 pm