projection system

When Projections Go Bad

Friday, May 30, 2008
by Geoff Young

What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren't the end-all and be-all, but they're good enough for government work... Projections vs Reality: Hitters OPS PlayerBJ CH MA MI ZI DSAct Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system. Josh Bard785741791728767767540 Adrian Gonzalez839840842810862879894 Tadahito Iguchi760737756723751732657 Kevin Kouzmanoff882796789740837858741 Khalil Greene762764752747742773599 Scott Hairston833740769721722794714 Jim Edmonds830766782739784756498 Brian Giles820777783732773789815 Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren't even close. Projections vs Reality: Pitchers ERA PlayerBJ CH MA...

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Brock2 Projections for Eight Rising Stars

Tuesday, October 22, 2002
by Geoff Young

Once again, I've been playing with Bill James' Brock2 player projection system. Thought I'd take a look at some young, up-and-coming hitters and see what the future might hold for them. As always, bear in mind that even James acknowledged that this system is more of a toy than a tool. But it's a heckuva lot of fun to play with. So without further ado, here are eight players who were 25 or under this year and who have 400 or more big-league at-bats under their belts. The two sets of numbers are pretty self-explanatory (peak refers to age 27 season). I've also thrown in the name of a player who would compare well statistically if the projections hold true. General assumptions are that offensive levels ...

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