Cogs in a Machine

Tuesday, October 23, 2007
by Geoff Young
San Diego Fires Yeah, our city is going up in flames. I'm okay, but a lot of folks I know aren't doing so great; I hope you're not one of them. If you want to follow what's going on or learn how to help, I've got a thread open for that; otherwise, and intending no disrespect to anyone affected by the fires, we'll keep doing what we do around here. Whatever helps us keep our sanity, right? Peace... As you know, I've been re-reading the old Bill James Baseball Abstracts this off-season. There's an interesting discussion about ballpark tendencies in the Houston Astros section of the 1983 edition. I wonder if some of this might apply also to the Padres and their current environment at Petco Park: Fenway ...
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Posted in Baseball, Minors | 65 Comments »

Guys You Forgot Were Padres

Wednesday, October 17, 2007
by Geoff Young
Stupid fun for a Wednesday... PlayerYear(s) Mike Aldrete1991 Marty Barrett1991 Emil Brown2001 Al Bumbry1985 Storm Davis1987 Jim Deshaies1992 Miguel Dilone1985 Oscar Gamble1978 Atlee Hammaker1990-91 Mike Hargrove1979 Randy Hundley1975 Dane Iorg1986 Danny Jackson1997 Jay Johnstone1979 Dave Kingman1977 Mickey Lolich1978-79...
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Posted in Baseball, Minors | 94 Comments »

Padres tickets  Chargers tickets  Sports tickets

First Projections for 2008

Tuesday, October 16, 2007
by Geoff Young
Dan has posted 2008 ZiPS projections for the Padres (hat tip to Ben B. in the comments). Some key names: Hitters PlayerBAOBPSLG Josh Bard.281.366.401 Adrian Gonzalez.284.351.511 Matt Antonelli.254.337.376 Kevin Kouzmanoff.289.345.492 Khalil Greene.249.300.442 Scott Hairston.243.317.405 Brian Giles.268.375.398 The projection for Hairston is low -- possibly by a lot, but the rest of these look reasonable to me. Center fielder remains a problem that I'm still studying. Pitchers PlayerERA Jake Peavy2.99 Chris Young3.32 Greg Maddux3.91 Trevor Hoffman2.53 Heath Bell2.89 Cla Meredith3.26 If Young is healthy, he'll beat this. Hoffman? Well, his ERA stood at 2.53 after 162 games this year. Winter Leagues Saguaros 3, Phoenix 2 (box score). ...
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Posted in Projections | 32 Comments »

Preseason Projections for 2007 Revisited

Thursday, October 11, 2007
by Geoff Young
Thank you for your excellent suggestions on the book, and keep 'em coming. Meanwhile, as part of this project, I'm taking inventory of an entire season's worth of entries, which means that I'm still in "looking back" mode for now. In that vein, I thought it might be fun to re-examine preseason projections for key players. We've already looked at my expectations for Padres hitters and pitchers, but what did others think? Hitters, Part 1 Brian Giles  BAOBPSLG Projected.277.386.438 Actual.271.361.416 Secondary skills in decline. Some of this is due to injury, some to aging. Adrian Gonzalez  BAOBPSLG Projected.287.348.469 Actual.282.347.502 Every system underestimated Gonzalez' power. Josh Bard  BAOBPSLG Projected.282.352.436 Actual.285.364.404 Bard underperformed by about three runs per 500 at-bats. That's a pretty darned good set of ...
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Posted in Minors, Projections | 42 Comments »

Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual Preliminary Outline

Wednesday, October 10, 2007
by Geoff Young
So this has been in the works for a while. Let me know if you have any suggestions. Also, if you're interested in reviewing chapters, drop me a line and I'll get you added to our super secret list. 2007 in Review -- Brief examination of past season at big-league level: Roster construction (distribution of talent in terms of pitching vs hitting, trade vs draft/FA, etc.; how this compares to seasons past) Bud Black's first season as manager (what were his tendencies, etc.) Monthly recaps (statistical breakdowns, key games) Revisit Petco Park effects Revisit Bullpen on a Shoestring Player Commentary Dashboard (visual representation of relevant statistical output) Profile (brief scouting report) Forecast (what to expect in 2008 and beyond) Minor Leagues Recap by level (team results, individual highlights) Draft summary and analysis (philosophy, early returns, etc.) Depth chart...
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Posted in 2008 Annual, Minors | 30 Comments »