Guys You Forgot Were Padres
Wed, Oct 17, 2007
by Geoff Young
Stupid fun for a Wednesday…
| Player | Year(s) |
|---|---|
| Mike Aldrete | 1991 |
| Marty Barrett | 1991 |
| Emil Brown | 2001 |
| Al Bumbry | 1985 |
| Storm Davis | 1987 |
| Jim Deshaies | 1992 |
| Miguel Dilone | 1985 |
| Oscar Gamble | 1978 |
| Atlee Hammaker | 1990-91 |
| Mike Hargrove | 1979 |
| Randy Hundley | 1975 |
| Dane Iorg | 1986 |
| Danny Jackson | 1997 |
| Jay Johnstone | 1979 |
| Dave Kingman | 1977 |
| Mickey Lolich | 1978-79 |
| Fred Lynn | 1990 |
| Jerry Manuel | 1982 |
| Willie Montanez | 1980 |
| Joe Niekro | 1969 |
| Sam Perlozzo | 1979 |
| Roberto Petagine | 1995 |
| Gary Pettis | 1992 |
| Johnny Podres | 1969 |
| Mike Scioscia | 1993 |
| Don Slaught | 1997 |
| Dickie Thon | 1988 |
| Bobby Valentine | 1975-77 |
Winter Leagues
- Phoenix 3, Saguaros 2 (box). Left-hander Will Startup worked an eight-pitch scoreless ninth. All Padres position players rode pine.
- Obregon 10, Mexicali 4 (box). Jared Wells gave up two unearned runs on two hits in the ninth.
- Navojoa 11, Hermosillo 8 (box). Two more hits for Oscar Robles, who batted second and played shortstop. Luis Cruz singled and drove in a run in three at-bats. He started at second base and moved to center in the seventh. Cruz has played at least three positions since the league started.
Other Stuff
I missed this when it happened, but according to Baseball America, the Padres have granted Hiram Bocachica and Scott Cassidy free agency. Cassidy did some nice work for the big club in the first half of 2006 but has been a non-factor since. I liked what I saw of Bocachica in limited opportunities and hope he gets a chance somewhere else.
Another guy granted free agency was right-hander Jermaine Van Buren. He’s coming off a poor showing at Triple-A, but this is someone who has enjoyed success in the high minors in the recent past. I’d identified Van Buren in the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual as a potential bargain reliever and I still think he might be worth a look.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 17, 2007 at 8:01 am
Did Scioscia not make the club in 93?
October 17, 2007 at 8:07 am
Anyone else think that the Pads should go after Tony Clark? I think that signing him may lead to a little addition by subtraction. Adding him to the Pads subtracts his padres killing bat from the d-backs.
October 17, 2007 at 8:09 am
#1: If memory serves, he spent the season on the DL and then retired.
October 17, 2007 at 8:24 am
Changing subjects a bit, can we now squash any further discussion that says the Padres are not financially committed to winning a World Series? They out-spent 2 of the 4 Championship Series participants (and Cleveland only out-spends us by $3mm) and if Cleveland wins one more out of the next 3, the Padres payroll will exceed roughly match World Series participant…
According to USATODAY.com
ARZ: $52.0mm
BOS: $143.0mm
CLE: $61.7mm
COL: $54.4mm
For comparison…
SD: $58.7mm
October 17, 2007 at 8:31 am
Which would be the first time since I think 91, that they have outspent the world series winner. The only difference is that they did not outspend the Rockies or D-Backs in the Minor League systems.
October 17, 2007 at 8:35 am
Wasn’t there some kind of story behind Marty Barrett? I seem to remember he turned down a big offer from the Red Sox because he thought he could get more as a free agent, or something like that.
2: How much do we have to pay him to stay home?
4: The problem with that is AZ and COL have low payrolls because they have a bunch of good young talent. We don’t have that kind of talent so if we’re spending the same as them we’re going to lag behind. You have to either out spend, out develop or out think your rivals and we’re not doing either of the first two. Let’s see what KT comes up with over the winter.
October 17, 2007 at 8:45 am
A cartoon any Padres fan can appreciate
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....emergency/
October 17, 2007 at 9:00 am
6. That may have been true in years past, but the Padres organization will put out better prospects to match that of the division rivals. Antonelli, Headley and a few others should be able to make contributions in the next few years.
One factor that needs to be taken into account when analyzing how much impact the minor league organization will have on the major league team is the process by which they come up. The Dodgers for example have a lot of talent but not a whole lot of brains in incorporating them into the major league squad. For example re-signing Nomar and sending Loney back to AAA wasn’t the brightest thing.
The Padres made a pretty big commitment to becoming a MLB organization rather than an MLB team by getting rid of Bochy - who wasn’t the best at developing position players.
October 17, 2007 at 9:09 am
#6: Close. You’re thinking of Jody Reed.
October 17, 2007 at 9:10 am
One of my favorite and for that matter wacky Padre memories is when Padre Marty Barrett turned on a Dave Righetti pitch and against all odds tied the game with a 3 run blast in the bottom of the ninth.
http://www.baseballreference.c.....4110.shtml
October 17, 2007 at 9:16 am
#10: Nice! Barrett vs Righetti in the NL West? Go figure. And I see that Jim Presley got the start at third. Now there’s a guy that I forgot was a Padre.
October 17, 2007 at 9:20 am
You see Geoff, it’s baseball nuts like me that enjoy pieces like “Guys you forgot were Padres”. For one summer day, we thought we had a replacement for Alan Wiggins in Miguel Dilone. I attended a double header, Dilone’s first two games as a Padre, and he stole 3 bases in the twin bill and rapped 5 hits….
http://www.baseball-reference......8091.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference......8092.shtml
October 17, 2007 at 9:29 am
OT, the Padres have job openings for Stats Stringer, Pitch f/x Operator, and Sports Reporter if anyone’s interested:
http://jobsearch.mlb.careers.m.....;lid=28779
October 17, 2007 at 9:38 am
How about a meaningless poll on the worst Padre’s hitter stats in their history (less than 50 pa’s).
I nominate John Roskos (1 for 27) , Jim Beswick (1 for 20) , Don Slaught (0 for 20) , Rick Lancelloti (1 for 27).
October 17, 2007 at 10:10 am
12:
Dilone.. I remember watching him warm up in the outfield. He needed a running start, to throw the ball 20 feet.
October 17, 2007 at 10:24 am
Maybe I’m the only one who didn’t notice, but BA has a nice article (subscription required) up on Headley (posted Friday, but I just saw it)…
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....65021.html
October 17, 2007 at 10:25 am
How did you guys like Manny’s celebration upon hitting a HR to cut Boston’s deficit to four runs?
October 17, 2007 at 10:33 am
One last thing on Brady Clark’s high OPS in a very small sample as justification for him being in the lineup in that 1 game playoff at Coors - did you see how bad his arm and range was ? I couldn’t believe how bad this guy was out there. Clark wasn’t cut because he was scapegoated - he was cut because he has no value.
Let’s hope the NO DEPTH days for the Padres are over.
October 17, 2007 at 10:33 am
#17: Hilarious. My take:
http://www.knucklecurve.com/un.....-the-alcs/
October 17, 2007 at 10:39 am
Hey Geoff, next Wednesday do we get, “Guy you wish you could forget were Padres”? Please!
October 17, 2007 at 10:48 am
20 … I nominate Steve Garvey
October 17, 2007 at 10:50 am
Re: 21 ha yeah but no HR then!
October 17, 2007 at 10:53 am
Hey, it’s just Manny being Manny. I imagine Jim Rome has spent half his show making cracks about it. (And all those clever e-mails and faxes, to boot!)
October 17, 2007 at 10:57 am
In yesterday’s comments …
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....l#comments
… Surfin’ Bird (comment #10) said some harsh things about Trevor Hoffman … among them this …
To steal a phrase from Jim Rome, it is absolutely myopic to think that a play here and a play there would of made a difference in the Padres season when Trevor Hoffman is solely to blame for the Padres missing the playoffs. Not once, but twice.
… and I share SB’s concern.
My view of it is a bit different … what I think was bad/wrong/unforgiveable was having Hoffy go out and pitch when he was not healthy (as evidenced by him having elbow surgery *very* soon thereafter).
I’m not sure who to “blame” … depends on who knew what … it sure seems like Hoffy had to know he wasn’t healthy … and the question remains about who he told and what he told them … if he told no one, then he’s 100% to blame … if he told trainers and/or managers, then they share the blame …
It reminds me of when Peavy went out and tried to pitch with a hurt rib in the playoffs a couple of years ago …
I understand the value of some macho/can-do/man-up/tough-it-out/gutty attitudes … as long as your willing to take the blame if/when you make a bad judgement!
October 17, 2007 at 10:59 am
5, 6: Exactly. We had to spend more on major league talent because we didn’t develop enough players. We spent 10 million on a number 3 starter who provided a 35 VORP. 8 years after the rebuilding project supposedly began, we should be churning out #3 starters, along with corner OF who can give you 800+ OPS production.
8: Always nice to see Mr. Conniff around. But until the Padres draft more upside, the possible returns from the farm will be limited. They’re already going to run into the question of what to do with all those 3rd basemen, which is better than not having the problem. I expect some trades that will be painful, initially, for those of us who follow the minor leagues.
18: Echoing other comments from yesterday, it hardly seems fair to bang the Padres for no depth when their 2 centerfielders were injured in the same game late in the season. Clark’s been okay in CF before. He picked a bad game to have a bad game.
October 17, 2007 at 11:01 am
#18: Clark is a passable fifth outfielder. The Padres’ other options for that game were a) Giles in center and Sledge in right, or b) one of Giles or Lane in center and the other in right. Bottom line: When you lose two starting outfielders with a week left in the season, you’re screwed.
#20: Sure thing. Let’s get some names…
#23: “Manny being Manny” is probably my least favorite phrase in all of sports. It always reminds me of this:
http://www.davemcnally.com/lyr.....bleBoy.asp
October 17, 2007 at 11:03 am
21: I don’t want to forget Garvey was a Padre, I still get goosebumps when I watch that HR. I want to forget that his number is retired.
24: Did the injury have anything to do with his performance, though? The gunky elbow didn’t stop him from striking out the side in the Friday game against Milwaukee. He’s denied that it was affecting him, which doesn’t mean he’s telling the truth, but his velocity seemed fine, his location was shot. Although some have complained about the “bargaining” aspect of it, if Hoffy throws a chest-high fastball to Tony Jr instead of the 100th changeup in a row…..
October 17, 2007 at 11:23 am
OT, in working on the “best by position” chapter for the 2008 Annual, I’ve found that Heath Bell’s 13 win shares this season were the most by a Padres reliever since Trevor had that many in 2000.
Only six SD relievers have earned more than 13 win shares in a season:
Rollie Fingers ‘78, ‘80
Luis DeLeon ‘82
Rich Gossage ‘84, ‘85
Mark Davis ‘88, ‘89
Greg W. Harris ‘90
Trevor ‘96, ‘98, ‘99
October 17, 2007 at 11:24 am
26 - re: 23 … yuck …
October 17, 2007 at 11:57 am
BP’s STAT OF THE DAY
Bottom 5 2007 AL Second Basemen, by VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
Josh Barfield, CLE, .204, -13.6
Alexi Casilla, MIN, .192, -10.9
Mike Rouse, CLE, .060, -10.6
Erick Aybar, ANA, .194, -10.3
Jose Lopez, SEA, .219, -9.7
October 17, 2007 at 12:01 pm
Al Bumbry?!? Damn. Just damn.
I’ll see your Al Bumbry and (while we’ve been focusing on 2B — Dilone, Barrett, Reed) raise you Dave Cash.
PS - One bonus cocktail to JP for the Rick Lancelotti shout out.
October 17, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Re 26 Re 20:
Right off the top of my head:
Vinny Castilla
Doug Mirabelli
Ruben Rivera
Tim Redding
Dewon Brazelton
Ok, too many recent guys, bringing up BR…
Kevin Jarvis
Ben Davis
Jay Payton
Brad Ausmus
Derek “Operation Shutdown” Bell
Al “Polygamy” Martin
Randy Myers
I’d include Sean Burroughs, but now I just kinda feel bad for the guy.
October 17, 2007 at 12:08 pm
32: Didn’t you love the “girls chasing Ben on the beach” TV spot?
October 17, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Speaking of all time Padres failures,when Geoff highlighted the 1973 Padres the other day, I couldn’t help but notice the year that a guy (second baseman) named Rich Morales had (.164 average in 250+ at bats). Wow !
#26 It is tough when you lose to starting outfielders but what makes it tougher is when you have to call a guy to replace them that had been out of baseball in the middle of the same season and probably all of 2008. It’s all good though, the days when we don’t have anyone at the AAA level to step in may be over.
October 17, 2007 at 1:22 pm
re: Coco Crisp … these guys don’t seem to like him …
http://www.bostondirtdogs.com/
October 17, 2007 at 1:27 pm
34: Most teams would have faced the same problem if their organizations 1 and 2 CF had gone done. If Ellsbury and Crisp collide, who’s Boston’s option? The gimpy Drew? It was the least survivable situation - the top 2 CF on the depth chart go down and we play the deciding game in a park with a cavernous CF.
I want no part of Crisp. So far, to my recollection, we haven’t seen one gap hitter come to Petco and thrive the way many people expect.
October 17, 2007 at 1:38 pm
Phantom & I talked this morning… Crisp is far from perfect (as Geoff pointed out, that’s a commentary on the available CFers this off-season), but unless Eric Patterson can handle CF or Seattle is willing to part with Adam Jones, there aren’t very many exciting options out there (and don’t say Andruw Jones - he has as many warts as Crisp).
October 17, 2007 at 1:49 pm
37: Andruw Jones is expensive, but he’s a lot better player than Crisp.
I wish we had somebody the Mets wanted. I’d take a chance on Milledge.
October 17, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Jones has as many warts as Crisp? Seriously? What planet are we talking about here? He’s still a good CF defensively and despite the career low BA was still an asset offensively.
Is he going to be worth 15M every year over a 7 year contract, no of course not….but to say he’s in essence no better of an option then Crisp is silly.
October 17, 2007 at 1:58 pm
I would take/choose Crisp in a heart beat over the declining Cameron. You don’t lose any defense and Crisp brings something Cameron does not on offense, a legit. lead off guy. In addition, I really feel like Crisp might do better in a less pressure filled environment.
October 17, 2007 at 2:01 pm
TW is a lot thicker than when he came up, can he still play CF?
Re “Andruw’s warts:” A. Jones is better than Crisp (I won’t deny that) but he’ll cost 3x as much/year… Furthermore, and speaking of “thick,” Andruw’s declined defensivly for years (he made a turnaround this year, but can he maintain his defensive-skill comeback, or will resume his 30’s decline?)…
If Andruw wants to do a 1-year contract to re-establish his long-term value, I’m all over that, but I want no part of a long-term deal w/ Andruw (and Andruw’s my favorite player of all time)…
October 17, 2007 at 2:02 pm
Wonder what the Indians would ask for Trevor Crowe? The scouting reports on his defense in CF are mixed, but he might be a good buy-low possibility.
October 17, 2007 at 2:02 pm
Sorry TW…
That was supposed to read: “TW, Milledge is a lot thicker than…”
October 17, 2007 at 2:03 pm
TW, I have Crowe on my list (Brian Barton as well) it’s not like the Indians will move Sizemore off CF.
October 17, 2007 at 2:06 pm
40: If the definition of legitimate leadoff guy is a player with a 329 career OBP, then we’re working with a different dictionary. So we lose Cameron’s OBP and power to get…..9 more steals over the last 3 years?
October 17, 2007 at 2:08 pm
#40: I like Crisp (relative to other options), but I’d prefer to see OG remain in the leadoff spot. To me, Crisp belongs somewhere in the 6-8 slots.
#43: Milledge doesn’t strike me as a legit center fielder, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him here at all. He’d make a great eventual replacement for OG. When I saw him in the AFL in ‘05, he hit everything hard. I love that kid’s bat.
October 17, 2007 at 2:08 pm
45: LOL - true… what about Kenny Lofton? He’d be a defensive liability, but he’s likely to post a .360+ OBP
October 17, 2007 at 2:10 pm
43: I’m thicker than when I first came up, too.
I don’t know how much thicker Milledge could have become between last year and this. He doesn’t look particularly thick in this picture:
http://tinyurl.com/2w6kqr
October 17, 2007 at 2:11 pm
40: That’s highly speculative. Crisp has not shown he can play CF the way Cameron can, and even a declining Cameron is better offensively. Crisp just put up back-to-back years of 80 and 86 OPS+ compared to Cameron’s 119 and 101.
October 17, 2007 at 2:11 pm
#47: With 81 games at Petco, 18 at Coors, and 18 at PhoneCo, we cannot afford a defensive liability in center. No more Dave Roberts types…
October 17, 2007 at 2:13 pm
46: I Love That Kid’s Bat, Milledge’s next rap hit.
47: Worth considering, especially on a one-year deal. While OG now profiles as a leadoff hitter, there’s some chance he won’t be ready at the start of the year. And really, what’s the difference between leadoff and the #2 hitter? Working the count, drawing walks, works well both places.
October 17, 2007 at 2:16 pm
Not only was calling you, TW, instead of Milledge, wrong, but saying, “came up” was wrong too… I remember Milledge from when the Mets drafted him. He had a Kenny Lofton-type wirey body, now he looks stronger…
October 17, 2007 at 2:17 pm
CF is such an interesting discussion for the off-season…
October 17, 2007 at 2:20 pm
52: That $100 per diem meal money on the road thickens lots of people. I’d prefer the added strength, as long as he’s still got the athleticism.
October 17, 2007 at 2:36 pm
40: Crisp isn’t a lead off hitter. Your lead off hitter should be one of your three best hitters and we’d have to purge this team of talent for Crisp to be one of our top three hitters.
October 17, 2007 at 3:16 pm
25. Thanks Tom, sorry I didn’t reply earlier. I would love to see the Padres take some more high ceiling guys as well, namely high school players - but the last time they made a big effort at that in 2004 - Bush, Killiam and Jones - they pretty much fell flat on their faces. Maybe they need some better scouts.
Cumberland seems like he has some potential and I’m curious why they couldn’t get it done with Toledo - we never got a great answer on that one. I go back and forth on whether they should have taken a shot at Porcello.
October 17, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Need (must) have one of your 3 best hitters as your leadoff man or purge ? Maybe on the high school level but not at this level.
October 17, 2007 at 3:19 pm
The fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors have an excellent post about the perils of signing big name free agents this off-season (namely, for any clubs drafting in the lower half of the first round in 08, you could lose that slot).
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ee-ag.html
Given that we draft at #23, I’d much rather trade for someone then sign for a top FA and get burned.
Also, will we be getting any supplemental picks this year? If we offer Cameron arb and he walks, that’s 2, right?
October 17, 2007 at 3:22 pm
I’ll admit that Crisp hasn’t shown much defensive ability until this year, but I’m intrigued by this:
ESPN lists Zone Rating & Range Factor… Sorted by qualified CFs, Crisp is 1st in RF and tied for 2nd in ZR.
He might not be the ideal candidate (Ichiro isn’t available), espcially offensively, but he might be the best available…
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....angeFactor
October 17, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Phantom! GREAT thinking… I hadn’t even thought about that…. We would ABSOLUTELY offer arb. Best case scenario, he accepts, and we get 1 more year of Cameron and don’t have a long-term contract to deal, worst case, he turns us down and we’ll get 2 picks (someone else’s and a supp.)… That get’s me pumped up.
October 17, 2007 at 3:33 pm
JP, I think you missed his point. His point was that we have better hitters (namely, Brian Giles, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Kouzmanoff) who would keep Crisp out of our “top 3″ hitters… The only way Crisp is a “top 3″ guy is we “purge” the roster…
October 17, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Don’t we have to be careful on solely using OPS as the all encompassing barometer for all players ? In other words, will not Russell Branyan always have a higher OPS than someone like Crisp and does that automatically be of more value offensively than Crisp? No doubt, the Padres need a basestealer who makes decent contact - Cameron struck out a whopping 160 times last years- hence my interest in Crisp. Not to mention the fact that Cameron is 6 years older than Crisp.
October 17, 2007 at 3:47 pm
#61 Gotcha. But is it always a matter of “better” (whatever your measurement tool for “better” might be) versus a player being value based on their particular role. It seems fruitless to compare Kouzmanoff to a Coco Crisp.
In other words, was the NFL’s Hall of Fame lineman Anthony Munoz “better” than Hall of Fame punter Ray Guy ?
October 17, 2007 at 4:19 pm
57: He doesn’t have to be one of your 3 best, but he should be skilled at getting on base. Crisp could easily be the worst hitter on our team. Looking the part - thin, fast, preferably a minority - doesn’t help. A legit leadoff guy should not be 7th or 8th on the team in OBP. He’s not particularly patient, either. Can anybody explain how adding a worse player to our team makes us better?
Draft picks: I’m skeptical. Odds are we’ll have another “You have to restock the system before you take any chances” draft, loaded with college players (not necessarily bad) and not paying anybody over slot, even if a true top talent falls (very bad).
October 17, 2007 at 4:28 pm
62: For leadoff hitters, I’d concentrate on OBP, and that’s where Crisp falls short. His batting average will probably be higher than Cameron’s, but all that contact, those fewer strikeouts, still result in him making more outs. Crisp isn’t really suited to the leadoff role. Doesn’t work the count, doesn’t get on base. The “role” is kind of like somebody saying a catcher’s defense is so good (or a shortstop, or a center fielder) that “anything you get at the plate is a bonus.” It’s not. It never is.
Munoz was a lot more valuable than Guy. A team full of Mike Camerons would beat the tar out of a team full of Coco Crisps.
October 17, 2007 at 4:40 pm
JP, you made the KK/BG/AG vs. CC argument first when you said CC would be a top 3 hitter on the team - you just didn’t name the Padre hitters…
TW, I am with JP on CC being valuable, albeit, more likely batting 2nd, 7th, or 8th… His BA is higher than Cameron’s and his career OBP is lower, but it’s .330ish the last two years (Crisp’s ‘07 numbers: .268/.330/.382) which is what Cameron’s was this year (2007: .242/.328/.431).
I’m not enamored with CC, but I think he might be the best AVAILABLE option (Reggie Willits -.293/.391/.344- might be a better option)…
October 17, 2007 at 4:48 pm
Re: 66 Willits is available?
October 17, 2007 at 4:54 pm
I’ll take Crisp. He has a much better shot of reaching a new level of offensive production compared to Cameron, who is not going to get any better. It’s only a matter of time when his production start to slip. Crisp is only 28–his best years very well could be ahead of him. In addition, I’ll take Crisp’s 50/84 BB/K ratio over Cameron’s 67/160. The difference there is staggering. Put the ball in play in a big ballpark and you end up getting yourself some extra hits, and some doubles that turn into triples. . . You can’t rawly judge players against each other by OPS. It doesn’t work that way.
Personally, I really like OB%, slugging percentage, and then obviously the combination OPS. You can’t rawly judge players against each other by OPS. It doesn’t work that way.
When it was literally impossible to throw out Vince Coleman, did it matter that his slugging percentage was a pathetic .358 in 1987? Well if you consider that 109 of his singles ended up being “doubles” because he stole 109 bases, then his effective slugging percentage (number of bases earned per at bat) was .533, almost 200 points higher. Add that to his OB%, and his value was more like an OPS of .896.
Of course his “real” stats show his OPS that year was .721.
So OPS is a legit stat, but it doesn’t measure a player’s complete offensive value because it doesn’t account for guys like Vince Coleman that turn 71% of their singles into doubles by stealing second base. In 1987, Coleman had 153 singles and 109 stolen bases. I’m sure not ALL of his steals were stealing second, but just looking at those numbers. He literally turned 71% of his singles into doubles. Is that a fucking trip or what?
Anyway, anyone who puts their blinders on and judges players strictly on OPS is off base. I love the stat, but you can’t live by it.
Pat Burrell has a decent OPS at close to .900, so people think of him as a slugger. I think that guy would fall flat on is face in a bigger ballpark. He is a fly ball to left machine, and that ballpark doesn’t hold alot of those fly balls. He only hits 28-30 homers. Put that guy in Shea and I bet he hits 22. So alot of his OPS is on base percentage, and yes it’s nice to get on base, but when you are a slug like Burrell it’s not like it thrills me to see him standing at first.
If OPS is supposed to represent some way of quantifying how many runs an offensive player might produce, then I disagree. Coleman’s OPS was .721 in 1987, and Burrell’s was .902 in 2007. OPS says Burrell is a better offensive player. Sorry, but that team would score way, way more runs with Vince Coleman in left over Pat Burrell.
October 17, 2007 at 5:34 pm
Re: Way to state the obvious.
October 17, 2007 at 5:48 pm
68: The strikeouts give you almost no new information about a hitter beyond what average, OBP, and SLG% give you. If you want a guy that gets more hits, look at batting average. If you want a guy that gets on base more, look at OBP. If you want a guy that gets more extra base hits, look at SLG%. Looking at those stats tells you Mike Cameron will have fewer hits than Crisp, but will get on base more, and will hit for more total bases. You don’t need to theorize that Crisp will do more with his at bats because more balls will go in play, because we know from looking at his batting line that isn’t the case.
There is no possible argument to be made that Crisp is a better hitter than Cameron, even before you adjust for Petco as Death Valley for a hitter.
October 17, 2007 at 5:52 pm
68: When a player singles and steals seconds it shouldn’t get counted as a double … I know it obviously doesn’t, but I mean theoretically you probably shouldn’t even adjust it like that. A double advances base runners 2-3 bases, while a steal does nothing but advance yourself one extra base.
Also, you have to factor in all of the time a player was caught stealing. You certainly have to adjust for speed, but doing it like that isn’t the correct way, imo.
October 17, 2007 at 5:53 pm
Re: 69
I meant to address the previous comment, #68, but in a tongue in cheek fashion.
However, My typo negated every aspect of my admittedly questionable intentions.
Go Padres!
October 17, 2007 at 6:08 pm
Even though Coleman stole bases, he didnt hit extra base hits. A single and a steal isnt a double. I double will no doubt score a guy from 2nd and probably someone from 1st. Coleman slapping only singles (14 Doubles 3 HRs) and stealing a base his much different from Burrells XBHs (30 HRs, 26 Doubles) in the middle of the order.
October 17, 2007 at 6:12 pm
68: I’m not sure how to write a response to all that…..
1) Crisp reaching a new offensive level means he might become as good as Cameron is. Yes, we’ve probably seen the best of Cameron. From now to age 37 I’d peg his OPS+ at 100, give or take 5. Crisp has to get a lot better just to get there. Players typically peak at 27-28, and those were 2 of Crisp’s worst years.
2) Crisp isn’t Vince Coleman. He doesn’t get on as much, he doesn’t steal as much. He barely steals more than……aging Mike Cameron.
3) We’ve seen Petco Park for 4 years now. What slap hitters have suddenly seen this vast increase in their offensive production? Nobody. You might say Dave Roberts, but he played a lot of games in Dodger Stadium and San Francisco, two big parks, without doing well.
4) This year Pat Burrell scored 30 times with 30 swings of the bat. Coleman, for all his speed, grounded into 7 DPs in 87, only 3 less than lumbering Burrell. Coleman clearly scored more, but he was hitting leadoff in front of Jack Clark, Willie McGee, and Terry Pendleton, who were all better hitters than him. I’d take Burrell. He’s far less dependent on somebody else doing something to produce runs. The big difference would be defense, which isn’t what you’ve been talking about.
5) I don’t care how Cameron and Crisp make outs. I care how many outs they make. Crisp makes more, and we don’t have any evidence that his type of hitting will thrive in Petco.
Crisp could play well for us, I’m not denying that. But it’s not going to be because he strikes out less or puts the ball in play in a big park. The last time he was a decent offensive player was in Cleveland, which isn’t big. Some more hits will drop, which can happen anywhere, he might get a little more patient, he might manage to steal 50 bags. But he could easily be the 270/330/385 hitter he’s been in Fenway, with 20 stolen bases, and that’s not much help.
October 17, 2007 at 6:26 pm
JP, first, let’s keep it clean, we don’t need to drop F-bombs…
Regarding Crisp, I think he’s useful. He’s not likely to get that much better, but he is likely to retain his skills while as you correctly point, Cameron’s skills will likely to erode. Virtually every other CF option is either on the wrong side of 30, has eroding defensive skills, and will cost 2-3x as much as Crisp for twice the length…
Also, I agree, the decrease in strikeouts should help…
Re 67: Willits is not going to start full-time for the Halos at any position, he might not be “on the block” but they’d definitely listen.
Another name we threw around for awhile was Fukudome… If he can play even an adequate CF, he’d be my first choice, then we could shift him to RF when OG’s contract expires after ‘08…
October 17, 2007 at 6:36 pm
TW, are you dead-set against CC as the Padres CF in ‘08? What would be your best-case scenario? Option 2?
October 17, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Peter:
Do you know the specific date, when teams will be free to negotiate with Fukudome?
October 17, 2007 at 7:07 pm
No (couldn’t think of anything smart-alecky).
October 17, 2007 at 7:12 pm
TW, shoot me an e-mail
pffriberg at yahoo.com
October 17, 2007 at 8:10 pm
77: he’s a FA, so I imagine it would be the same as all other FA deadlines and timelines.
October 17, 2007 at 9:13 pm
Vince Coleman was terrible. He may have looked good, but all those steals did not make up for all those outs and lack of total bases: .320, .301 and .363 — his OBP during his 100+ steal seasons. His slugging percentage wasn’t much higher (sometimes lower), and he struck out a lot. The “What If Rickey Henderson had Pete Incaviglia’s Legs” chapter in “Baseball Between the Numbers” doesn’t outright dismiss the stolen base but it makes the case about why it’s often an overrated weapon, or at least was.
October 17, 2007 at 9:18 pm
BTW, that .363 OBP was Coleman’s career high, 39 points above his career average.
So if the Pads were to trade for Crisp, we’d have to hear from all the “old-schoolers,” say the Coach and Philly Billy, that the Padres are going to be more dangerous with all that speed, blah blah blah.
October 17, 2007 at 9:42 pm
I don’t think anyone is targeting Crisp and thinking he’s anything like an ideal solution. His main appeal is he wouldn’t cost much in talent or salary (I think he’s making about 4 million) and can play good defense. The hope is that the low salary allows KT to spend money in other areas (starting pitching) to improve the club enough to offset the lack of offense.
The other second tier options are just as lousy (Corey Patterson, Kenny Lofton) and may even be more expensive. Either way you look at it the Padres are in a tough spot. Fukudome may cost nearly as much as one of the top tier guys, and at that point wouldn’t it be safer to spend a little more and get a guy who has proven he can hit ML pitching?
October 17, 2007 at 9:51 pm
#83: Precisely. Acquiring Crisp would be a lot like signing Jay Payton before the 2004 season — not optimal, but passable given the available options.
October 18, 2007 at 1:22 am
The three most important spots in the batting order (and thus the three positions that should be occupied by your three best hitters) are 1st, 2nd and 4th. I’m not sure what’s confusing about that. Coco Crisp is not a good hitter and thus doesn’t belong in one of those spots for the Padres in ‘08.
October 18, 2007 at 5:07 am
In case anyone is interested, Keith Law had this to say about Will Venable’s performance this fall…
Will Venable (Padres) can’t keep his body under control as he swings. His hips turn way out front before he starts his swing, resulting in an uncoordinated hack and inability to square up balls.
October 18, 2007 at 5:32 am
Hunter is interested in the Nats:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....p;c_id=mlb
I wonder if this would make Ryan Church available? There’s a guy we could use.
October 18, 2007 at 6:59 am
Glad I sparked some conversation but of course a bit embarrassed that my enthusiasm resulted in the dropping of the F-Bomb (won’t happen again). Above all, thanks for the great chat about about baseball !
October 18, 2007 at 7:01 am
#86 I saw Venable play a lot this year at San Antonio and I must agree with Law. Venable swing seemed rather long and at times he indeed have a difficult time squaring up.
October 18, 2007 at 7:14 am
88: Well I went overboard calling Vince Coleman terrible. So … got get a motivated Jones on a one-year deal. That’s my solution.
October 18, 2007 at 7:47 am
#68: The Phillies absolutely would not score more runs with Coleman in left than with Burrell. Coleman’s ‘87 resulted in 5.4 RC/G, while Burrell’s ‘07 resulted in 7.6. If you’re talking about Burrell’s ‘03, then I can accept that, but on balance, those two players aren’t even close in terms of offensive production.
#86, 89: Thanks for the info on Venable.
#88: No worries, bud; it happens.
#90: Except that for much of his career, Coleman was terrible. Still, stealing 107 bases with a .232/.301/.280 line in ‘86 is mighty impressive. If Coleman had possessed any hitting ability whatsoever, he would have destroyed Rickey’s single-season mark of 130 that year.
October 18, 2007 at 9:18 am