Ducksnorts

I’ve got a few things on my mind this morning. First off, I’m reorganizing the categories of this here blog, trying to put some of those information architecture skills I learned at my last job to use. Among other things, I’m discovering that it’s a lot harder to organize your own stuff than someone else’s.

Anyway, in the process of doing this, I’ve rediscovered a few ancient posts. One of them (pardon the ugly tables) discusses the limitations in using statistics to evaluate prospects.

I’m thinking of Matt Antonelli and the fact that he’s fallen off a few radar screens because of his poor showing at Portland this year. Not that Antonelli is the same type of player, but I wonder how many folks had given up on Mike Cameron at age 22, before he ever reached Triple-A, based on his career line of .243/.330/.361 to that point?

Again, we’re not comparing Antonelli and Cameron as players. We’re only using them to demonstrate that one season doesn’t always tell us enough about a player.

It makes no more sense now to call Antonelli a bust based on his 2008 performance than it did last year to anoint him a future star based on his 2007 performance. The truth remains somewhere in the middle, although we don’t know exactly where.

What’s Your Position?

I’ve also been thinking about the Padres’ offensive strengths and weaknesses. One of the most surprising aspects of this year’s team is that center field has turned out to be a position of strength. In fact, relative to league, it’s been the position of greatest strength, which is just bizarre given the whole Jim Edmonds debacle.

This got me to wondering how the offense has performed by position over the past few years. Thanks to Baseball-Reference and its handy sOPS+ stat, which measures OPS for a split relative to the major league OPS for that split, we can have ourselves a little look:

A few things jump out at me:

• Since the departure of Gary Bennett, the Padres have gotten remarkable production from their catchers — mostly Ramon Hernandez, Mike Piazza, and Josh Bard,with a little Miguel Olivo thrown in for good measure. This year, of course, they’ve gotten nothing. Nick Hundley and either Luke Carlin or some free-agent veteran (and there are some decent backup catcher options) figure to improve on that. At worst, they should get the club back to Bennett levels; yes, this is damning with faint praise, but the Padres did have a 69 sOPS+ at catcher in 2003, which sounds pretty good right about now.
• Second base has been a black hole since Mark Loretta’s MVP caliber season. Josh Barfield provided a little spark in ‘06, but the last two years have been brutal. That the Padres managed to do worse this season than Marcus Giles boggles the imagination.
• Third base still isn’t great, but it’s a lot better than it used to be. With Kevin Kouzmanoff manning the hot corner and Chase Headley at the ready should the Padres decide to move Kouz to, say, the Twins for some starting pitching, the days of Sean Burroughs, Joe Randa, Vinny Castilla, and Mark Bellhorn appear to be well behind us.
• The two best center field performances came when Cameron wasn’t here. How is that even possible? Well, Dave Roberts had a career year in ‘05, while Jody Gerut, Scott Hairston (.305/.341/.609 in 186 PA as CF), and Will Venable all have played above expectations in ‘08.

Center field is a strength. Who knew? That’s why I look stuff up — to keep from sounding stupider than I already am.

Tags: baseball reference, information architecture, jim edmonds, matt antonelli, mike cameron, ops, prospects, statistics

According to Tom Krasovic at the U-T, Wally Joyner has resigned as hitting coach [h/t Sacrifice Bunt] of the San Diego Padres. In lieu of an explanation, Joyner offers this curious quote:

I came to the job hoping to put my experience and ideas to good use in teaching and coaching the Padres’ hitters, but it has become obvious to me in the past few months that the organization’s approach is different from mine.

First off, I suspect the approach is less of a problem right now than the results. Second, although the results haven’t been great, they haven’t been as bad as some folks seem to think. The pitching, of course, has been much worse.

That said, here is a disturbing trend:

2004: 110 OPS+
2005: 103
2006: 104
2007: 101
2008: 97

No, OPS+ isn’t the end-all and be-all of offensive metrics, but it’s good enough for government work. Hint: Higher is better.

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to who the hitting coach was back when the Padres were, um, hitting? Right, it was Dave Magadan, the guy we wanted out of town for some strange reason. (Magadan, you may have heard, has enjoyed a certain degree of success since leaving San Diego.)

Meanwhile the Padres go back to the business of finding a new hitting coach to replace the old one. Krasovic’s article mentions Jim Lefebvre as a possibility. I can’t help but think that Max Venable, who served as hitting coach for the Padres Triple-A affiliate in Portland this year and whose son, Will, has been playing center field for the big club this month, might also be in the mix.

Whoever gets the call, here’s hoping he survives the opening credits. My piece of advice: Avoid away missions.

Tags: dave magadan, gaslampball, government work, hitting coach, sacrifice bunt, san diego padres, wally joyner

We drove to Vegas on Thursday afternoon. Neko Case, Silverchair, Interpol, and Thievery Corporation accompanied us on our journey. Not literally, of course; our car isn’t that big.

On Friday we rode the monorail all over the Strip, gawking at the utter freakishness that is Sin City. This place always makes me feel lonely, although it’s more bearable now than when I was younger and had difficulty coping with loneliness.

That evening we saw Tony Bennett perform at the Hilton, where we were staying. The man is 82 years old, but as a performer he’s still at the top of his game. His band swung like nobody’s business (drummer Harold Jones played with Count Basie in the late ’60s), and Bennett’s voice remains remarkably crisp and forceful, with a rich vibrato that men half his age would be lucky to possess.

Saturday

On opening day of Blog World & New Media Expo, I attended the two sports sessions, hosted by Yardbarker. The first, “Promoting Your Content — Establishing a Following in the Sports World,” discussed strategies for getting noticed in the ever-expanding blogosphere. The big themes were to be different and unique, don’t be afraid to promote yourself to mainstream media (but pick your spots; make sure you’re offering quality), and keep your own needs in mind as well as those of your audience.

I found the second session, “Capitalizing on Traffic — Monetizing Sports Blogs,” less useful. It seems there isn’t a real consensus on how best to make money from these things, although everyone agreed that Google probably isn’t the way.

The speakers at both sessions presented their material well and were open to dialogue with the participants, small though we may have been in numbers. This brings me to my one gripe: Where were the sports bloggers? It was more than a little disheartening to see so few of us there. For all the talk about gaining acceptance, credibility, yadda yadda, you’d think that more than a handful of folks might make the effort to attend an industry event. Other sectors (business, military, etc.) didn’t seem to have this problem, as I was reminded every time a session let out and hundreds of attendees roamed the halls. I don’t know if it’s the economy or a general disinterest, but the lack of sports bloggers made it difficult to achieve much synergy.

I’d planned to attend non-sports-related sessions later in the day, but my motivation was shot so I ended up going out and enjoying Vegas instead. That evening I made a cameo at the opening night party and connected with a few bloggers, though again, nobody in my sector. I enjoyed talking with people who are passionate about what they do and comparing notes about blogging in our various sectors, but I really wouldn’t have minded chatting with a few sports bloggers. On the bright side, if I’m ever in the market for a summer home in Colorado, I’ve got a guy for that.

Sunday

I attended two more sessions on the second day. Only one sports session was held, and it was by far the best of the lot. “Emerging Trends and Transitions in Sports Blogging” featured a diverse group of speakers, including NFL agent Jack Bechta and former Los Angeles Times columnist Jay Christensen.

The panelists noted that there is a movement toward more citizen journalism and that younger athletes (e.g., Washington Redskins tight end Chris Cooley) tend to see value in blogging, where older athletes don’t always get it. The speakers also discussed the importance of analyzing the news rather than simply breaking it, which heartened me, because I’ve always thought that analysis is where we — as participants in and observers of our world — are best positioned to add value.

Some of the talking points seemed to me fairly self-evident, although it was good to hear these things confirmed by people who are approaching the medium from a different angle and who have actual professional experience in the field. Be accurate and dependable. Be authentic. Cover an angle that nobody else is. Think more like a columnist than a beat writer. Focus on the big picture. I’m paraphrasing what I heard, and filtering it through my own biases, but I think you get the idea. The only downside to this one was the fact that two of the scheduled panelists (who had been there the day before) didn’t attend.

Next, I attended a session called “Book Deals, Digital Assets and Corporate Sponsorships,” which had nothing to do with sports. As someone who has written two books and is working on a third, I figured this would be right up my alley and it was. The panelists focused on the importance of marketability, with the two big lessons here being that price is all about perceived value and that you always want to keep your end game in mind, ensuring that everything you’re doing is pulling you in that direction.

In some ways, this was the most enlightening session for me because it forced me out of my comfort zone and exposed me to ideas in a field where I have no expertise whatsoever. It also reminded me that, despite the poor turnouts for the sports sessions, the conference was well attended.

Closing Thoughts

On balance, I enjoyed the experience. Yardbarker did a nice job with the sport sessions; I’m only sorry that precious few heard their message. Networking opportunities abounded, and I expect that bloggers in other sectors made plenty of connections.

In the future it would be nice to see more folks from the sports blogosphere out there. Among the sports blogging networks, only Yardbarker had a presence and that’s because they sponsored the entire track. Thank goodness for them; otherwise there might not have been anything for the few bloggers in our sector who made it to the convention.

Tags: blog, blog world expo, count basie, harold jones, hilton, interpol, las vegas, monorail, silverchair, thievery corporation, tony bennett, vibrato

Last week I mentioned an all-time Padres team that I’ve been assembling. This wasn’t just an intellectual exercise. Our friends at Seamheads are running a simulation league this off-season with the best players from each big-league franchise, and they invited me to submit a 40-man roster for the Padres.

Most of the choices were fairly obvious (I’d already ranked the best players by position in the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual), but some presented a challenge. Usually it came down to questions of longevity versus effectiveness. For example, Luis Salazar spent a lot more time playing third base in San Diego than Gary Sheffield did, but only one of those guys will help you win baseball games.

I tried to stick with players who best represent the city and the franchise. That’s why Eric Show and Clay Kirby make it ahead of Gaylord Perry and Kevin Brown. At the same time, as in the case Salazar, I wasn’t going to hand someone a spot on the roster just because he played here for a long time.

Anyway, enough of my yammering. To the team:

Catcher

1. Terry Kennedy
2. Benito Santiago
3. Gene Tenace

This one was easy. Tenace also provides coverage at first base, not that the Padres need it.

First Base

1. Ryan Klesko
2. Nate Colbert
3. Adrian Gonzalez

I had Gonzalez ranked #9 entering 2008 and said that he would move up to #3 assuming he repeated last year’s success, which he has. Gonzalez gives Wally Joyner the boot. It also pains me to keep Fred McGriff off this squad, but the position is too deep to justify his inclusion.

Second Base

1. Mark Loretta
2. Roberto Alomar
3. Bip Roberts

I had Quilvio Veras ranked as the #3 second baseman in club history, with Roberts at #4. Roberts also checks in as the #5 left fielder. Between that (as you’ll see, it makes a difference) and your arguments, I slipped Bip onto the roster.

Third Base

1. Ken Caminiti
2. Phil Nevin
3. Gary Sheffield

As noted, the tricky one here was Sheffield. Other possibilities were Graig Nettles and Salazar.

Shortstop

1. Khalil Greene
2. Garry Templeton
3. Tony Fernandez

This is another case where I overlooked a brief tenure. I’d considered Ozzie Smith, Gomez, and Damian Jackson for that #3 spot. You could make a decent case for Smith, but the .278 SLG is a deal-breaker for me. I’d have to stick Tim Lollar on the team to pinch hit for him, and I can’t bring myself to waste a spot on Lollar.

Left Field

1. Gene Richards
2. Carmelo Martinez

I asked whether you preferred Greg Vaughn or Rickey Henderson at #3, and the answer was a resounding, “We don’t know and we don’t care.” Well, not really, but you get the point. Roberts, who ranks just behind those two, can fill in here if needed.

Center Field

1. Steve Finley
2. Johnny Grubb
3. Kevin McReynolds

When I decided to omit a third left fielder, my initial thought was to include Mike Cameron. Then I realized that all of the right fielders on this club have played a fair amount of center. I hated leaving Mark Kotsay off here, too, but he just didn’t do enough.

Right Field

1. Tony Gwynn
2. Dave Winfield
3. Brian Giles

Duh, duh, duh.

Starting Pitcher

1. Jake Peavy
2. Randy Jones
3. Andy Benes
4. Ed Whitson
5. Andy Ashby
6. Bruce Hurst
7. Eric Show
8. Clay Kirby
9. Dave Dravecky

I’ve already noted the omissions of Perry and Brown. Another worthy candidate who didn’t quite make the cut was Dave Roberts. For as epic as his 1971 season was, it’s not quite enough to bump anyone else off the list.

Dravecky is the guy I added to the roster in place of a third left fielder. I’ve got him as the #11 starter in club history, but that’s only because he pitched so much in relief. The guy was mighty effective for quite a long time. He gives us a little flexibility.

Relief Pitcher

1. Trevor Hoffman
2. Mark Davis
3. Rollie Fingers
4. Craig Lefferts
5. Rich Gossage
6. Scott Linebrink
7. Lance McCullers
8. Greg W. Harris

I haven’t run this year’s numbers yet, but I’m guessing you could make a good case for Heath Bell at this point. Still, I like Harris because he can start if needed; he’s sort of a right-handed version of Dravecky.

Tags: benito santiago, bip roberts, eric show, fred mcgriff, gary sheffield, gaylord perry, gene tenace, ken caminiti, luis salazar, nate colbert, roberto alomar, ryan klesko, wally joyner

My latest article at Hardball Times focuses on a technique Bill James employed in his 1988 Baseball Abstract to evaluate the degree to which a pitcher might be aided (or not) by his offense. James used it to compare Danny Jackson and Walt Terrell from 1985 to 1987; I use it to compare Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz in 2003.

. . .

Elsewhere, Tom Tango is doing his annual fan scouting report. Go lend your expertise to the project and scout the Padres (h/t It Might Be Dangerous… You Go First).

. . .

Nine games to go…

Tags: Baseball, hardball times, jarrod washburn, padres, ramon ortiz, scouting report

What a grind it’s been. In 30+ years of following baseball, I can’t ever remember looking forward to season’s end, but that’s pretty much where I’m at right now. Actually, I’ve been there for a few months.

It’s a strange feeling, and kind of sad. I just want the friggin’ games to end so I can breathe a little and get back to focusing on research. Is that so much to ask? Just finish these 10 meaningless games so I can start working with final stats.

Sigh.

. . .

We’re driving to Vegas on Thursday for Blog World Expo. I made it out to last year’s inaugural event and had a blast. The sessions were mostly informative, and networking opportunities abounded. I got to rub elbows with the likes of Rob Neyer and Will Leitch, among many others.

I’m not really a Vegas kind of guy, and last year I didn’t do much beyond attend sessions. This time, however, we got tickets to see Tony Bennett. I’m hoping he’ll sing “The Best Is Yet to Come” because Lord knows I need the reminder.

Anyway, if you end up at Blog World Expo, let me know. I’ve got new business cards and everything…

Tags: Baseball, blog world expo, business cards, las vegas, networking opportunities, rob neyer, tony bennett, will leitch

That was a fun one Thursday night, eh? I’d make a crack about how it’s only the Giants, but seeing as how we have virtually no chance of overtaking them for fourth place, that hardly seems appropriate.

Seriously, though, it’s cool to see a bunch of these kids that I watched at Elsinore come up here and have some success. Matt Antonelli knocked three hits and drew a walk (and only a fine play by Omar Vizquel kept him from reaching base a fifth time), Drew Macias collected his first big-league hit (a homer off Matt Cain, no less), and Josh Geer tossed a gem.

Meanwhile, we’ve got links…

• Jason at It Is About the Money, Stupid interviews Paul DePodesta. There’s some good stuff in here, but this is probably my favorite bit from DePo:
  

  We get a pass/fail grade 162 times a year, and no matter how good the team is we will fail a lot. The losing can really take its toll when you dedicate so much time and effort to the cause. On the other hand, the triumph of high achievement that accompanies winning is special.

  It always cracks me up when fans assume that folks in the front office don’t give a damn. I learn more about the pride those fans take in their own work than anything else.

• Portland manager Randy Ready is up with the big club (h/t Baseball in Fort Wayne). That’s great, but buried in here is a nice quote from left-hander Wade LeBlanc on his difficulties this season:
  

  If you look at it as a failure, you won’t make it through the season. I looked at it as if that struggle will help me in the long run.

  Will it help him in the long run? Who knows, but at least he’s thinking about it the right way. He’s admitting that it’s a possibility, which is better than the alternative.

• Could right-hander Mike Ekstrom be a dark horse candidate for the 2009 bullpen? Some within the organization seem to think so. Quoth GM Kevin Towers:
  

  It looks a little bit like the path that Scott Linebrink followed to the major leagues. Scott was a starter, but his stuff and how he pitched was better suited to being a reliever.

  Hey, why not. Just keep throwing guys out there and see if any of ‘em turn out to be good.

• Speaking of pitchers, DePodesta talks about the two newest members of the Padres, right-handers Charlie Haeger and Scott Patterson. I find his take on Haeger interesting:
  

  As is the case with most knuckleballers, Charlie can walk some hitters, and he can give up some fly balls. That’s not a great combo in the American League, particularly in US Cellular in Chicago, but it’s more palatable in our environment. Kevin Towers has said in the past that he’s been intrigued with the idea of a knuckleballer in our park given the coastal weather conditions and the spacious outfield. In a more general sense, knuckleballers can also create some flexibility within a pitching staff due to their ability to pitch often and in a variety of roles.

  The bit about walks being “more palatable” at Petco surprises me a little because the organization typically places a premium on guys who throw strikes. A natural gut reaction is to wonder why they are going against the grain with Haeger. A more telling observation is that the Padres don’t appear to be overly attached to their own tendencies and are willing to be flexible where the situation dictates. This, I like. The ability to adapt has served our species well over the years.

Recent Articles

And here’s what we’ve been talking about this week at Ducksnorts. Some of these discussions are still active, so feel free to add your $0.02:

• It’s Funny Because It’s Truthy — In the end, does it really matter whether someone is trying to be humorous? If I laugh, it works. (See Wood, Ed.)
• Help Wanted: All-Time Padres Team — We’re looking for a third-string second baseman and a third-string left fielder. As of this writing, Bip Roberts leads Quilvio Veras, 12-2, for the former, while Rickey Henderson leads Greg Vaughn, 8-5, for the latter. Unless I’m presented with compelling reasons to do otherwise, I’m inclined to put Roberts on the team. I remain uncertain about Henderson and Vaughn; feel free to convince me one way or the other.
• Bounce or Crash? — Reader Tom Waits wonders about the Padres’ chances to rebound in 2009. Unlike most of us, though, he’s actually studied the issue a bit.
• Partly Focused, with a Ten Percent Chance of Useful — So, yeah, that whole thing about Adrian Gonzalez fading in the second half? He has three homers in the last two games. Emily Litella sends her regards.

Rock on…

Tags: giants, josh geer, matt antonelli, matt cain, mlb, omar vizquel, paul depodesta, scott linebrink