And now for something completely different. One chapter in the Ducksnorts book will be dedicated to the best at each position throughout the Padres’ history. I’m working on the starting pitchers now, and I need a little help. Randy Jones is a clear choice for #1, but after that, it gets muddy.
With that in mind, every day this week, we’ll take a look at two pitchers in the running for spots 2-10 and see if we can clarify the situation. Here is our smackdown schedule:
- Monday: Gaylord Perry vs Dave Roberts
- Tuesday: Dave Dravecky vs Clay Kirby
- Wednesday: Bruce Hurst vs Jake Peavy
- Thursday: Andy Ashby vs Eric Show
- Friday: Andy Benes vs Ed Whitson
I’ll present a few key statistics for both players, along with links to their Baseball-Reference pages so you can digest all the numbers you need, and note some of the arguments for and against each. I’m hoping we’ll get some good discussion going. Even if we can’t come to agreement, at least we can put ourselves in better position to make an informed judgment.
On to today’s match: Gaylord Perry vs Dave Roberts.
| Year(s) | GS | IP | ERA | ERA+ | WS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career with Padres | 1978-1979 | 69 | 493.1 | 2.88 | 119 | 34 |
| Best year with Padres | 1978 | 37 | 260.2 | 2.73 | 122 | 18 |
Arguments For:
- In 1978, Perry became the second Cy Young Award winner in Padres history.
- Only Randy Jones has made more starts in a season than Perry did in 1978.
- Only Jones has won more games in a season than Perry did in 1978.
Arguments Against:
- Perry pitched only two seasons for the Padres.
- Neither of Perry’s seasons ranks among the top 10 in ERA+ in club history.
- Perry benefitted from excellent run support (4.48 per game) in 1978; Atlanta’s Phil Niekro posted better numbers that year but finished 19-18 because his team could score just 3.64 runs per game for him.
| Year(s) | GS | IP | ERA | ERA+ | WS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career with Padres | 1969-1971 | 60 | 500 | 2.99 | 119 | 34 |
| Best year with Padres | 1971 | 34 | 269.2 | 2.10 | 157 | 24 |
Arguments For:
- Roberts’ 1971 was better than Perry’s 1978; an astounding 2.30 runs per game behind Roberts (the Padres scored two runs or fewer in 59% of his starts) led to a 14-17 record.
- Among Padres pitchers, only Jones (1976) and Kevin Brown (1998) have accumulated more win shares in a single season than Roberts did in 1971.
- Roberts’ 2.10 ERA in 1971 is the best for a single season in franchise history; his 157 ERA+ that year ranks third all time behind Brown’s ’98 and Jake Peavy’s 2004.
Arguments Against:
- Roberts pitched only 2+ seasons for the Padres.
- Run support notwithstanding, Roberts’ career won-loss record with San Diego was 22-34.
- Roberts’ second best season was nowhere near as good as Perry’s second best.
The facts have been presented. What say you, oh connoisseurs of Padres lore?
Gaylord! Vaseline and all.
THT links has a story “Comparing Projections for 3 Catchers” one which is our own Josh Bard. The actual story is from Marc Normandin on Beyond The Boxscore. Interesting but short.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/tht-links-take-a-deep-breath/
BTW Geoff, this is very (eerily) similar to what you did for the Pad squad last week.
Interesting look back at 2001 draft:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2007/1/29/82339/7729#commenttop
Oh, Perry over Roberts.
Sorry, gotta disagree… I give it to Roberts. That ’71 was an impressive season on a 100 loss team.
157 ERA+ … that gets my nod … ie. Roberts
How about Mark Davis? Cy Young 1989. Made the pennant chase very fun in 1989 even though we didn’t quite catch the Giants…
OK, only two+ seasons, but one was probably the most interesting pennant race we’d been in to date.
OK, stop the flames. Starting pitchers…
Note to self – re-read entry and post BEFORE clicking the submit button.
I’d take Roberts, I guess, at least in terms of Padres production. It’s not his fault he pitched for bad teams. Perry was a better pitcher, obviously, but was past his prime when with San Diego.
Speaking of off-season errata, I have a couple things I want to mention concerning the Padres and this off-season.
1) Is anybody else besides me bummed that the Helton-to-Boston deal didn’t go through? I know he’s got a bad back and declining production, but even so, that guy just kills us. Every time I watched a Padres game this season against Colorado, either live or on the computer, I dreaded that guy coming up. And it’s been that way for years. He seems to have the magic against us that few others do (Pujols is another). I was looking forward to the possibility of not dealing with him.
2) While scanning the “still available” free-agent lists, a couple names caught my eye. the first is a guy who was 4th in MVP voting 3 years ago, and is coming off injury: Shannon Stewart. For those not familiar with him, he’s a right-handed corner outfielder, not a lot of power but gets on base and hits for average, used to run well but his injury is to his heel. He’s only 32 and if healthy I think he’d be a better platoon outfielder/pinch-hitter than Cruz. Why not bring him in on a Piazza “prove yourself” contract; I’m sure he wants to re-establish himself to try for at least one more big pay day.
The other name, similar situation, was Victor Zambrano. He’s like a better version of Shawn Estes, who we’ve already re-signed. (Both are coming off TJ surgery). Zambrano would be an upgrade over Estes or Wells as the 5th starter if he can come back as good as he was before. He’s only 31.
Chan Ho Park is still looking for a team, and Tony Armas too. Both would be low-risk, possible high-reward type guys. Armas still has decent stuff, he should be relieving though. The batting average against him was quite a bit higher after 40 pitches last year. I’m not sure Brocail has much left, and we need a guy for that role – the guy who comes in and pitches when we’re down a run in the 6th and doesn’t add fuel to the fire.
Park should relieve – he only has to use two pitches then, his fastball, which still hits 92, and the knee-bending curve. Everybody knows he was lights out last season in the WBC as closer doing just that (using 2 pitches), and based on personal observation this last season, his biggest problems on the mound came when he was trying to throw his junk pitches for strikes. He got behind and walked batters and got in trouble. Now that he’s done with that ridiculous contract, the Pads won’t feel some need to put him in the rotation to get their money’s worth, and can use him in a matter better suited to his abilities.
There’s some other FA still available, most of them are old or past any usefulness. For a list go to: sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents?type=avail
Thoughts?
Would not touch Stewart…he really does not add much for us. If we add anyone for LF, it really needs to be a power bat (Did someone mention Pat the Bat?)
Like the idea of Armas…always been intrigued by his arm. I wonder if he wants to go into the bullpen. Might be that he has said something to the effect of “I won’t sign unless I am a starter”. Gotta think that has something to do with it. (Maybe ChanHo too)
RE # 11
I don’t advocate for Stewart as a starting OF – just a a RH PH/pl
RE # 11
I don’t advocate for Stewart as a starting OF – just a a RH PH/platoon guy. He’s better in that role than Cruz, who is really more of a three-true-outcomes guy, which is a poor choice for a PH, especially. Plus, with the Pads best hitters batting from the left side, another RH bat wouldn’t hurt.
Like you, I would love to get Burrell, but after the crazy contracts handed out this off season, it seems as though the Phils are going to hang onto him – in this market he’s a bargain. Also, re: Armas and Park – you may be right – a starter is going to get more money than a reliever, and it’s probably a blow to one’s pride to be told you can’t start anymore. But it’s getting close to Spring Training – five weeks – and I bet, as guys get desperate for a job, the prices and expectations go down a little bit. I’d take Parkover Armas, but wouldn’t be upset with either – or both – of them. Towers has been remarkable at constructing solid bullpens out of castoffs.
Helton vs. the Padres:
149 games 540 AB 108 R 186 H 50 2B 26 HR 86 RBI 94 BB 79 K .344/.438/.596. The only team he does as well against is Arizona.
I like Armas. Not sure he’s looking for a minor league deal, which is probably all we could offer him.
I wouldn’t be against seeing Park back, but I imagine Bor-ass is going to pick the best situation for his client (ie, starter somewhere).
I wouldn’t mind Ron Villone either, but he’s probably two expensive and wants a two year deal.
Shannon Stewart is coming off a foot injury. I guess he’s a better option than Cruz (each missed the majority of the 2nd half last year for different reasons), but only if healthy. I read the Padres had a scout in Florida for Stewart’s workout, so it seems they are at least curious. I was never a big Stewart fan even when healthy, but I have to admit he’s probably better than Cruz. The problem is if he goes down for any period of time we have nobody else of MLB quality who can step in as a backup LF/CF/RF. I doubt Cruz would go to Portland and wait for his chance.
If only Philthy Phil wasn’t so unliked – he could provide a righty bat off the bench at 1B and LF and be an emergency catcher. Funny.
Anyone remember Dave Hilton?