How to Start Your Very Own Crazy Rumor
Wed, Mar 12, 2008
by Geoff Young
We’ve been hearing some crazy rumors this spring. As a public service to those who haven’t been able to concoct one of their own, here’s a little template that might help:
Hey, I noticed that [small- or mid-market team] just lost [position player, pitcher, etc.]. Looks like he’ll be out [multiply actual expected time by two or three, depending on taste], and they could really use [crappy guy on large-market team who plays same position]. What about [small- or mid-market team's best prospect] for [crappy guy]? That would totally make sense. That would be wicked pissah!
You’re welcome.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
March 12, 2008 at 8:18 am
Hey, I noticed that the Padres just lost Jim Edmonds. Looks like he’ll be out for 6 to 8 weekds, and they could really use Johnny Damon. What about Headley and Antonelli for Damon? That would totally make sense. That would be Bleeping Awesome!
Wow that was fun!
March 12, 2008 at 8:22 am
You guys are hillarious.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
Is it just me, or does this seem like overhype/overspin here? I’ve never been that excited about Venable as a prospect, and I think Callis nails it in that article. Any thoughts?
March 12, 2008 at 8:25 am
For those of us wondering yesterday, Hairston did indeed make it to China: http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
March 12, 2008 at 8:42 am
2: Yes, it is overhype. Venable may be one of those guys with an oddball development path, but when you start throwing out comps like Edmonds, a borderline HoF, that’s nutty.
March 12, 2008 at 8:54 am
#1: Well played, sir.
#2, 4: I tend to agree. Venable is a terrific athlete, but given his age, I have concerns about how well his tools will translate into usable baseball skills. I’d love to see him prove us all wrong.
OT: I’ve posted a “behind-the-scenes” look at writing the DS Annual over at BallHype if anyone is interested.
March 12, 2008 at 9:11 am
5: That’s a really interesting read, Geoff. Thanks for the insight into the process.
I hope that you’re still doing OK. I intend to purchase a copy of both this year and last year’s annuals for my mom for Mother’s Day. Any luck on getting more promotion from the Padres this year?
March 12, 2008 at 9:25 am
#6: Thanks, glad you liked it. As for promotion, I’ve got several irons in the proverbial fire. Not saying anything just yet because I’m a little superstitious that way, but I see some possibilities.
On a totally random note, here are a few interesting names from the 1998 High School All America Team:
(first team)
Sean Burroughs
Felipe Lopez
Mark Teixeira
Austin Kearns
Corey Patterson
Drew Henson
Josh Beckett
(second team)
Matt Holliday
Chip Ambres (!)
C.C. Sabathia
March 12, 2008 at 9:38 am
7: That’s great to hear.
I don’t know if you’d be interested in such a thing, but have you ever signed up for the MLB Job Board? I’ll have to see if I can find a recent e-mail, but I know at one point the Padres were looking for someone to manage their paper communications. I can’t help but think you’d be over-qualified for such a job. Presumably you could integrate the Annaul into part of the Padres canon.
March 12, 2008 at 9:38 am
Henson should have stuck with baseball.
March 12, 2008 at 9:40 am
Re: 9 Bleh n/m just looked at his minor leauge stats
http://minors.baseball-referen.....i?pid=6502
March 12, 2008 at 9:46 am
Crazy stuff on Baldelli, hard to imagine a guy trying to play professional baseball with a severe fatigue issue.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/rays.....delli.html
March 12, 2008 at 9:47 am
Hat tip to GLB, but Yahoo has an article about the Padres going to China. Pay special attention to the signs the team had posted in Peoria with regard to, ahem, diseases in China: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
March 12, 2008 at 10:10 am
OT … I got a thumbs-up from GY to post a pointer to an offer now up on the MadFriars web site …
http://padres.scout.com/2/736717.html
… a chance to subscribe for a couple of months to see how much you like it … I know I do … and it reminds me how valuable Ducksnorts.com is also (hmmm, that reminds me that I’m overdue to click on that Paypal “Donate” button there on right
)
March 12, 2008 at 10:28 am
MLB.com says the Padres have the second-best bullpen: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....p;c_id=mlb
and the best rotation: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....p;c_id=mlb
March 12, 2008 at 10:55 am
Hey, I noticed that the Padres just lost Jim Edmonds. Looks like he’ll be out for half the season, and they could really use Coco Crisp. What about three Matt’s (Antonelli, Latos and Bush) for Crisp? That would totally make sense. That would be wicked pissah!
March 12, 2008 at 10:58 am
15 … see, you can do “east coast bias”, can’t you!
BP STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 2008 NL Starters, by PECOTA Projected WARP
Player, Team, EqERA, WARP
Johan Santana, NYN, 3.28, 7.5
Jake Peavy, SDN, 3.44, 6.7
Brandon Webb, ARI, 3.44, 6.6
Cole Hamels, PHI, 3.45, 6.2
Aaron Harang, CIN, 3.72, 6.1
March 12, 2008 at 11:33 am
A Stauffer update …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
… I can’t help but be intrigued by what he did at the end of last season @ AAA … but I know most here feel very burned by what he’s done in his chances up with the Padres … I gave up on him after seeing him pitch (poorly) last week @ Peoria … but now that I see that that was due to being unhealthy, I’m going back to rooting for him … not to win the #5 spot (it’s too late for that), but to get healthy and have get off to a good start @ Portland and be ready for the call if/when an injury strikes our rotation …
March 12, 2008 at 11:35 am
According to Corey Brock, the Padres are in China and will be going to the The Great Wall “tomorrow” …
http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/.....reall.html
March 12, 2008 at 11:57 am
2,4,5: I think he could definitely contribute. We need a guard to bring the ball up the court and pass it in to Chris Young or Tony Clark in the paint. Adding Venable to those two would make the Padres far and away the best basketball team in baseball.
March 12, 2008 at 12:09 pm
17: I sure don’t want Stauffer to fail, but all I see in his August 2007 is an abnormally low batting average against. No uptick in K’s or downturn in walks that would lead me to believe he turned a corner.
He could still end up a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter, but without the peripherals to back it up the end of 2007 looks like luck instead of skill / talent. Could have been just a matter of having better defenders in that hot streak, wasn’t that when Macias and Ramirez were in Portland?
March 12, 2008 at 12:25 pm
TK @ UT has today’s lineup posted …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....iants.html
20 … agree … thanks for checking the periperals … here’s one of the box scores …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_poraaa_1
… shows Ramirez in CF …
March 12, 2008 at 12:28 pm
A break from the Padres.
http://tinyurl.com/yvpws2
Afterwards, you can go back to talking Padres.
19: Callix Crabbe, does he play basketball? He can be the point guard, if so.
March 12, 2008 at 12:28 pm
If you’re going over to Peoria this weekend, look for Brian Giles … according to TK @ UT …
He is to appear as a designated hitter in his first minor-league game Friday.
… and you can see the minor-league games back on the practice fields … here’s schedule …
http://www.springtrainingonlin.....dres_4.htm
March 12, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Chase hit a bases-clearing double in the 1st today to put the Padres up 4-0 (Barrett had an RBI single earlier).
Khalil apparently looks awful at the plate according to Leitner.
March 12, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Hey, I noticed that the Padres just lost Jim Edmonds. Looks like he’ll be out for all of eternity, and they could really use a similarly zombie-like octogenarian. What about Matt Antonelli for a bag of baseballs and an autographed photo of Rickey Henderson? That would totally make sense. That would be neato.
March 12, 2008 at 1:54 pm
I’ll say Khalil is looking awful today. He’s twice come up with the bases loaded and less then two outs and struck out both times. He’s also 2-15 this spring with 9 strikeouts. But it’s only spring so no bid deal — and he’s doing a lot better then Ichiro! (0-21 so far)
March 12, 2008 at 2:15 pm
I’m going to be down working in Rancho Bernardo on Wednesday, April 9th … I think I’ll be “done” in time to make it up to the Storm game (6:08pm start time) …
http://stormbaseball.com/schedule_print.html
… anyone else?
24/26 … Today’s box score …
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxsco.....b_sfnmlb_1
… shows that both KG and Ambres have come to the plate with the bases loaded in both the 1st and 2nd innings and are a combined 0-for-4 between them … just sayin’ …
I will also restate that I saw KG strike-out 3 times in a game last week … and each AB looked distincly awful … I’m totally on-board with “spring stats don’t mean anything” … that is unless they mean something! What I mean by that is … if he’s healthy and working on things, then the results in spring do not matter one bit … but, then again, this could be a symptom of a health issue (but I’ve not seen/heard any such comments in the media) …
March 12, 2008 at 2:17 pm
27 … CY just gave up a 2-run HR to Dave Roberts … now 4-3 Padres after 3 full …
March 12, 2008 at 2:30 pm
A very interesting blog entry by TK @ UT …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/....._kids.html
March 12, 2008 at 3:01 pm
27: Man, LM, a Storm game would be fun, but I don’t relish the thought of driving up the 15 on a Wed. afternoon/evening. I’ll have to take a pass on that one, but I hope you find some people willing to go with you. Have you factored in the traffic to being “done” on time?
March 12, 2008 at 3:03 pm
#27: I should be able to make it.
March 12, 2008 at 3:14 pm
27, 31: Aw man. I’m in town from the 10th to the 13th for an Old Man Beer Drinking and Bad Golf Long Weekend. The wife would not be crazy about “I’m leaving you with the two maniacal kids for an extra day because I want to catch a minor league game with some guys I’ve never met. And after that I’m eating dinner at Ruth’s Cris, playing a round at Coronado, taking the SD Beer Tour, having dinner at the Stone Bistro….” I’d come home to an empty house and a Marshall with a summons.
March 12, 2008 at 3:28 pm
32 … does Lake Elsinore have a Ruth’s Cris? I’d be up for that after the game … we might even be able to get Lance to pay for it
How / why does someone schedule such an event during a weekend that the Padres are out of town?
30 … ya, I’m familiar with the traffic at Lake Hodge thru Escondido … I’ll try to get out of RB by 330ish … think that’s early enough? GY, can you get to RB by 330ish?
March 12, 2008 at 3:31 pm
27 … Gerut with an HR … Edgar Gonzalez with a PH & RBI … Bass got ding’d …
March 12, 2008 at 3:32 pm
If the Padres look bad now, wait until the season starts. This season could fall somwhere between the 1969 - 1973 teams as far as a W/L ratio goes.
This team needs a lot of road work. Filling in holes and patching up the cracks.
March 12, 2008 at 3:37 pm
34 … Durango with an appearance in today’s game … as a pinch-hitter … he grounded out … I’m surprised he got an AB ahead of Kulbacki and Yefri … hard to read those tea-leaves …
Here’s a video I took of Durango at Eugene last summer … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFbC9ESiFVw
March 12, 2008 at 3:40 pm
35 … what makes you think they “look bad now”? they sure didn’t look bad to me last week … they are scoring runs … Jake and CY seem to be doing things which will make them even better in 2008 … I’m not predicting 90 wins … but 85+ seems like a reasonable expectation … I think 1969-1973-ish is “UnRealistic” …
March 12, 2008 at 3:40 pm
#32: I don’t see the problem.
#33: Should be able to make it by then.
#35: Thanks for the laugh.
March 12, 2008 at 3:44 pm
McAnulty with a 3-run shot off Hennessy
Padres now up 11-5 …
March 12, 2008 at 4:03 pm
I don’t think this Padre team has many holes. We know that the infield is going to be one of the best in the league, especially offensively (Kouz drags down the overall defense a bit but it’s still above average). The outfield is slightly more a question mark but you know that Giles will get on base and that Hairston/Headley will be good offensively in left. CF could be a problem, especially if Edmonds doesn’t bounce back and is injured and ineffective for the season (but they carried a dead spot last season and they still won 89 games). The bullpen will probably be one of the best in the league again (as they have been since Petco opened up) while the starters are pretty set, especially if Wolf and Prior can stay healthy and effective.
I think we are arguing over minor moves because the Padres have a great chance of winning the division and the rest of the contenders are so good. One or two wins might make the difference, that’s why we think it’s important to fill what holes they have (an good defensive CF to backup or take over when Edmonds is out, a 5th starter like Lohse to guard against injuries and eat up innings). If I thought the Padres were going to win only 80 games I’d say throw Hairston out there in CF for the season, and throw Leblanc and Germano in the rotation to see what they can do.
March 12, 2008 at 4:27 pm
PECOTA has the Padres winning 77 games, but the over/under on Padre wins according to one source is 84.5, so I’m not sure where I’d project them to finish wins-wise.
March 12, 2008 at 4:30 pm
40: I totally agree. I also think another key is a healthy Brian Giles getting on base at the top of the order. I don’t mind him losing some power if he can get his OBP back above 400. With Iguchi in the lineup and an improved Kevin Kouzmanoff, I think we’ll score more runs than we did last year. And with our pitching staff, we don’t need a whole heap of runs to win games anyways.
also 35: “Filling in holes and patching up the cracks” sounds like a description of Giles’s offseason surgery…
March 12, 2008 at 4:48 pm
33: 3:30 for a Wed. doesn’t sound bad. But does the traffic really clear out after Escondido? I remember an awful lot of people commuting from Temecula/South Riverside County years ago and I can’t imagine it’s gotten much better. But then again I always got off in Escondido so I don’t know for sure.
Have fun at the game, but unfortunately Lake Elsinore does not have a Ruth’s Cris.
March 12, 2008 at 4:52 pm
42: The reason his OBP is down is because his AVG is down. When he was OBP .400+ he was also batting around .300. When he was hitting .300 he was also hitting with power. He is going to have to learn to hit with what he’s got now to hit around .300 and get on base around .400. If he could get back to around his 2005 form with a little less power, I think you are right, we will definitely score more runs with him leading off and he would actually be valuable.
March 12, 2008 at 5:10 pm
43: Once you get past the bridge, you shouldn’t have any real problems. The Temecula people shut down the right lanes when they line up to exit, but the rest keeps moving.
March 12, 2008 at 5:21 pm
42 (in reference to “also 35″): Or Kaz Matsui’s surgery. Ouch.
March 12, 2008 at 6:23 pm
46 … YOW … thanks a lot for making me look *that* up
http://thebiglead.com/?p=4969
March 12, 2008 at 8:38 pm
If you thought that was bad, check out what happened to Felix Pie. Warning: not for the faint of heart if you’re a male.
http://blogs.chicagosports.chi.....5-day.html
March 12, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Hey, I noticed that this post just lost it’s primary focus. Looks like it’ll be gone until somebody finds a procedure to beat Felix Pie’s, and we could really use an unbearably painful, invasive and embarrassing surgery. What about some kind of internal trauma in the you-know-wheres? That would totally gross me out. That would be wicked pissah!
March 12, 2008 at 9:26 pm
49 … sweet …
Back to baseball … bully #2 in mlb is …
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....p;c_id=mlb
… and rotation #1 is …
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....p;c_id=mlb
March 12, 2008 at 9:26 pm
#35: You aren’t alone in your thinking. My prediction is 83-79, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the wheels came off and resulted in 72-90.
I said as much to both Geoff, and LynchMob in Peoria last weekend, but I suspect that they thought I wasa out of my mind.
March 12, 2008 at 9:58 pm
51 … I suspect no such thing … I’m quite confident of it, in fact!
otoh, even at 72-90, the Padres would still finish 10 games up on the Gi’nts … so they’ve got that goin’ for ‘em …
OT … a look at “Injury Return Rates” …
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....cts/?p=807
March 12, 2008 at 10:53 pm
51: I don’t really see the wheels coming off except in the case of injuries. Last year we had a season-high losing streak of 4 and I have to give credit to Jake Peavy and Chris Young. Peavy gave up 2 earned runs or less in 23 of 34 starts last season and we know that CY has the same kind of potential. Whenever you have 2 starters who are consistent shutout threats, it’s hard to get into too much of a rut. If CY had stayed healthy last year I think we would have made the playoffs and had a good shot at the World Series. Basically if our core players stay healthy I think we can plug-and-play a little bit in LF and CF and still be playing ball in October.
March 13, 2008 at 8:05 am
53: Good points about the two big guns helping to prevent extended losing streaks. But I think it was Joe Sheehan who pointed out in a chat the other day he’d hate to be a flyball pitcher with the OF we’re likely to be running out there this year. There are two definite things about Petco so far, imo: 1. It suppresses offense; and 2. It places a premium on OF defense. I don’t like either side of that equation as it relates to our likely OF for 2008.