I’m fried. We still have a few openings in the second Ducksnorts fantasy league. Let me know if you’re interested and I’ll send an invite. [Update: All spots have been filled. Thanks to everyone who expressed an interest and sorry we couldn't squeeze more of you in here.] Otherwise, feel free to talk about whatever and be excellent to one another. Oh yeah, buy the book.
Not to rub it in to any USD fans but how about those Aztecs! 3-1 against a top team like USD!
#1: Ugh. Okay, except that! Friggin’ Aztecs…
Seriously, though, they looked good out there.
Did anyone happen to catch Jody Gerut on XX radio yesterday afternoon? I was really impressed with his intelligence and positive attitude. He seems convinced that he’s 100% and his injury problems are behind him. I also thought it was interesting that he said everyone he’s dealt with in the Padres organization has been incredibly nice, and before signing he asked Josh Bard about the Padres and Bard gave them 10s across the board, which helped influence Gerut to sign. It seems there’s more to the San Diego discount than just the beaches and the weather.
He mentioned he’s been using something called an ARP machine to rehab his knee so I looked it up. It’s either the greatest advancement in sports medicine or a total scam:
http://www.arpwave.com/indexmain.htm
Gerut swears by it though, so maybe there’s something to it.
So far we’ve got CY and his Pilates, P Mac lost 20 pounds by working out and drinking blue green algae and Jody Gerut rising from the ashes with the help of a machine that sounds like something Tesla would have invented. I love spring training!
Geoff, I’d like to get in the second league if there’s still room. Thanks.
Hi Geoff,
I’d be down for the second league. I have to defend my second place finish from last year! Thanks!
#3: Greg Vaughn’s kid has some kind of power. Not surprising, but wow.
#5, 6: I’ve sent you both invites, and I have a few others outstanding. Only two spots left so anyone I’ve invited should get on it quick or risk having to wait till next year.
The Baseball Analysts have posted a discussion of the NL West in the upcoming season: http://www.baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/02/two_on_two_nl_w_2.php
With GY’s approval, I send this solicitation for more fantasy fun… another league I am in is looking for a 12th team… here’s the details:
It’s a free, ESPN, 5×5, weekly head-to-head league. Five keepers, was an 8-team league last year, have three new teams this year and looking for one more. So, because of the keepers, you (and the other 3 new teams) would start with a bit of a disdavantage.
But this league has existed for years, and they’re good guys, mostly Friars fans. If you haven’t played head-to-head, with end of the year playoffs, it definitely keeps you hooked in ’cause you have a new chance at bragging rights every Sunday night, and a fresh start every Monday. If you’d like to be team #12, email me today:
dpratola@yahoo.com
BA’s Top 100 prospect list came out today.
Headley at 32, Antonelli at 50.
As always there are surprises; I find it hard to see how Hank Conger ranks behind Neil Walker. But in terms of Padres, I can’t argue. The high-upside young pitchers at the bottom of their list, like Walden, Aumont, and Alderson, have strong cases to be ranked ahead of our high-upside young Latos.
7: Thanks Geoff.
#7: Second league has been filled. If you didn’t get in, please see dprat’s message at #9. Thanks, everyone!
I brought this up yesterday (that had to be a near record low day for posts) about signing Kyle Lohse and/or Corey Patterson. The Padres have obvious holes, their outfield defense is bad, their outfield is either old, injury prone, declining or young and unproven, and they have serious question marks after their top three starters (either because of injuries in Wolf and Prior or general uneffectiveness in Germano and Prior).
I’m not saying that Lohse or Patterson would guarantee a pennant but they are obvious upgrades over what they have now. Their final moves will show whether Padre management is serious about actually winning, or whether winning is secondary to financial concerns. I think most people that read this blog know what I think the Padres number one concern is.
Adding to Tom Waits’ post on Baseball America’s Top 100.
As he said Headley comes in at 32 and Antonelli at 50. Both Matt Latos and Wade Leblanc come in the “just missed” category with Latos probably being just off the top 100 (named by 4 voters with a high of 88 while Leblanc was named by 1 at 145).
However, I don’t know how seriously you can take these lists. My biggest problem is that they have Lars Anderson at 40th, third 1B (ahead of Joey Votto and Daric Barton) even though his numbers in the same league at the same age were slightly worse then Kyle Blanks’. I know it’s based on potential but shouldn’t someone at 1B put up big numbers since they’re only skill is hitting?
Excited for the DS Annual, Geoff – plus I mailed one off to my 88-year old grandmother, Louise, who started exploring around the web five years ago and who I introduced to Ducksnorts last season. She asked me recently if there was any chance we’d be re-acquiring her favorite ex-Padre, the dashing Ben Davis. Survey says…
13: I’d really like Lohse, particularly if he takes a one-year deal to build value. Despite his peripherals he could put up a mid 3.5 ERA as a Padre, give Prior plenty of time to recover, and do a reasonable RH impersonation of Randy Wolf.
Patterson, meh. If you’re only getting him to cover 25 games with plus defense, we can probably get that cheaper. Macias might be able to do it now. Patterson kills us if he’s forced to play regularly. I’d rather use Crabbe as the all-purpose backup and have legitimate bats on the bench.
14: Anderson over Barton makes sense, because Barton’s top-end power has always been questionable. Anderson and Blanks had almost identical numbers in Low A, with the Sally League a slightly tougher hitter’s venue. Anderson also went from HS to full-season ball, with no short-season like Blanks got. Lars has shown a little better plate discipline, is probably a better athlete and defender at 1st, is younger and left-handed…I wouldn’t have been surprised if Blanks had snuck in between 90 and 100, but I would be surprised if most scouts don’t put Anderson well ahead of him.
OT … wait, there is no T … BP’s STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 2008 NL Third Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
David Wright, NYN, .319, 69.3
Ryan Braun, MIL, .307, 60.6
Chipper Jones, ATL, .321, 57.1
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS, .286, 41.0
Aramis Ramirez, CHN, .293, 40.7
… and it’s my understanding that BP’s PECOTA is forecasting somewhere between 27-33 for KK … with a 25% chance of 44 or better … yo … I like KK … it’s not clear to me how to best handle the KK vs Chase situation … what a beautiful problem … but a problem nonetheless … that’s part of what spring training is all about …
Tom, I guess I’m just confused on why Anderson gets so much love. His numbers at the same age weren’t as good as Blanks, regardless of league. John Manuel in his BA chat today said that he might be the #1 hitting prospect in the 2009 list. I just don’t get it. I have no doubt that his numbers this year are going to be outstanding as he’s playing in Lancaster although he’ll be hard pressed to top Blanks. It’s one thing to rank a young SS really high that hasn’t hit yet, but why would you do the same for a 1B who’s only job is to hit. AGon’s numbers at the same age (again in the Midwest league, not in the SAL) were far superior but I don’t remember anyone claiming he was the #1 prospect ever (his high was 31 in both 2002 and 2003).
18: At low A, for a HS kid, the numbers mean less than the tools. Anderson had good numbers and has tremendous tools. And it’s huge that his first pro experience with wood bats was in a full-season league. Very few HS kids go straight to full season ball. Blanks was a junior collegian and he still went to Rookie League.
17: I was checking out K. Laws prospect list yesterday and when talking about Headley(43) he says the rumors of him moving to left field to “accommodate the stone handed Kouzmanoff” are just plain silly. Maybe he thinks Kouz will be the one to eventually be dealt(which is also my personal belief)? That or he’s just plan wrong seeing as Headley has been taking balls in the outfield since January and Antonelli(93) is listed as a 2B/CF who’s “struggled to find a position since moving off of shortstop in 2006″. He’s either really down on Antonelli, as much as you can be down on someone in your own top prospect list, or he really really like himself some Kyle Blanks(68).
Haha looks like I need to proof read like someone else needs to fact check.
For what it is worth the best list I’ve seen so far for Top 100 Prospects is Kevin Goldstein’s at Baseball Prospectus – he had three Padres – Headley, Antonelli and Latos in the top 100.
22: Their rankings of Headley and Antonelli are different, but not hugely so. I mean, there’s a 54 rank spread between them on Matt, but most of the players in the back 50 could be arranged randomly. It’s really a matter of which high-upside, low-probability player you like more, Latos or Blanks.
Latos would seem to be the more valuable player to the Padres, because we have so few high-octane arms. But we only have one or two potential offensive superstars, too, and Blanks is one of them. I don’t see another potential 40HR bat in the system. I’m not sure I see another 30HR bat. Carvajal and Headley seem to have the best shot.
24. I have to see Carvajal play more and do a little more research on him before I really have a definitive opinion. The type of player that I’ve heard he could become has a really wide range everything from Bill Matlock to Kirby Puckett.
I still like Chad Huffman more than Blanks – if Huffman hadn’t been dinged up in San Antonio I think he would have been more highly thought of.
I agree with you assesment on Latos’ value to the Padres – but I also believe he would be pretty highly ranked wherever he goes. The Midwest League this year with Porcello, Main and Latos will go a long way in helping us find out just how much talent these guys have.
24: Yeah, Carvajal is so young his numbers are basically meaningless. But all the scouting reports say he’s got serious thump.
Huffman probably has a better chance than Blanks of playing in the majors, and BP’s PECOTA was very high on him last year. But Huffman also seems to have a much smaller chance of being a true offensive superstar. Chance to be a good player, yes, but probably in the generic corner OF ranks (Trammell, Rondell White, etc.) No shame in that. Blanks may only have a 10% chance of being a superstar, maybe even less, but it’s there.
26. Fort Wayne should be a more interesting team – thank god – than it was last year. The outfield – Durrango, Carvajal – and one of the three Chalk, Payne or Perry, decent pitching – Latos, Breit and Heffner along with Cumberland could be interesting, young, but interesting.
I missed the sign up for the official ducksnorts league(again) so I started my own free league through Yahoo. I’m hoping to get primarily Padre fans. It’s set for live draft, but you can pre-rank your players and it will auto draft for you.
http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/league/friar_fans
26: I think it was Goldtsein who said that most organizations have one farm team per year that you can just write off. Last year we had two, or one-and-a-half depending on when you caught Ft. Wayne. Portland was brutal, almost all journeymen and spare parts, and Ft. Wayne was Hunter, Contreras, and before the late-season promotions, almost no arms worth mentioning.
I forgot to include the info you need to join the league:
ID# is 139172 and the Password is Gwynn19
28. I have never been a big Contreras fan, I though Ft. Wayne was about 2 and half – Hunter, Miller and Breit as a long term guy, but he was pretty ugly for most of the year.
I did like RJ Rodriguez and Nathan Culp too, but they are both longshots.
Hey good meeting you last night! =D
#31: Likewise! Thanks for stopping by and saying hey.