Somebody’s Got a Case of the Thursdays
Thu, Sep 13, 2007
by Geoff Young
If you thought Wednesday night’s loss (box score) was dreadful, here’s something even verse:
Once was a boy, age fifteen years,
Hiram Helsel was his name,
And he was sick two years or so;
He has left this world of pain;
His friends they miss this lovely boy,
That was patient, kind and brave.
He left them all for him to mourn –
He is sleeping in his grave.
— From “Hiram Helsel” by the inimitable Julia A. Moore.
On the bright side, Kevin Kouzmanoff finally got his OPS+ over 100 for the season — no small feat after he dug himself into a giant (.113/.171/.183) hole back in April. Although Kouz could stand to improve his strike-zone judgment and hang in a little better against right-handers, it’s hard not to like his .307/.353/.523 line since the All-Star break.
By way of comparison, David Wright hit .292/.373/.506 over the first half of the season. No, Kouzmanoff isn’t Wright — not even close (don’t be daft) — but there’s reason to be encouraged.
by Peter Friberg
You will not see a Texas League sweep…
AA
Springfield 6, San Antonio 2 (series tied, 1-1)
Nick Hundley: 3 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; BB, 2 SO
Cesar Ramos: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
High-A
No game…
Commentary:
Nick Hundley has not had a good post-season… He’s hitting .125.
Laurel and Hardy, er, I mean, Greg Maddux and David Wells, Thursday night at Dodger Stadium. We’ll do that IGD thing that we do…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 13, 2007 at 8:26 am
Terrible game last nite. Sledge shouldn’t see his name in the line-up again for the rest of the year.
I know that Cameron is streaky, but man, he picked an AWFUL time to start sucking.
September 13, 2007 at 8:49 am
Re: 1 Man I hope Black leaves sledge off of the Playoff roster (if they make it) but I have a feeling he may fall into the Bellhorn/Bochy trap.
September 13, 2007 at 9:04 am
#2 Agreed on Sledge. He brings nothing to the roster if he’s not hitting. He’s bad in the field and not a fast runner. I’d prefer to have Mackowiak over Sledge on the playoff roster as a left handed PH assuming he’s healthy by that time and assuming that we make the playoffs.
September 13, 2007 at 9:09 am
Did Barrett start or get into the game last night? That would explain things.
September 13, 2007 at 9:13 am
4: He started hahaha
September 13, 2007 at 9:14 am
RE Sledge: I completely agree, Sledge is 30 and they keep giving him chances like he is a prospect on the cusp. We have better options.
September 13, 2007 at 9:25 am
Sledge has some pop but isn’t a hacker. He has a solid approach but the results, obviously, leave something to be desired. Last night, though, I thought he should be more aggressive with two on and Germano on deck. Reminded me of Greene in 2004 or OG.
September 13, 2007 at 9:31 am
Kouz and Khalil set the Pads up to score a lot of runs but Barrett and Sledge just killed them. Cameron didn’t help either; how does a major league hitter strike out 5 times in a game?
September 13, 2007 at 9:34 am
Cameron is a nice fit as a complimentary player, but miscast as a middle of the lineup guy.
Have a good enough offense that he hits 6th and I’m happy, even with the 5K games.
September 13, 2007 at 9:34 am
The fundamental problem with Sledge is that although his game is best suited to an everyday role, his skills aren’t good enough to justify one.
September 13, 2007 at 9:52 am
re 10: ouch.
September 13, 2007 at 9:52 am
Does anyone ever say to you, ‘Sounds like someone has a case of the Thursdays’?
No. No, man. ****, no, man. I believe you’d get your *** kicked sayin’ something like that, man.
September 13, 2007 at 9:52 am
Im sure Sledge will be on the team next year, I belive the Pads still have another opetion year with him and he’s cheap.
September 13, 2007 at 10:08 am
#11: Yeah, I was hoping for better from Sledge, but it seems that the injuries have taken their toll. This is not the same player who looked somewhat promising in Montreal a few years ago.
September 13, 2007 at 10:11 am
I’d much rather see Brady Clark in the game tonite over Sledge. With a lefty on the mound, we had damn well better NOT see Sledge.
September 13, 2007 at 10:16 am
#15: It’s not the lefty/lefty matchup that bothers me so much as Sledge’s apparent discomfort playing the outfield. Clark is a good defender. If you make the assumption that no-one other than Jenga (or Scott Hairston) will provide consistent production in left field, you might as well go with a guy who can play the position well.
September 13, 2007 at 10:31 am
Can we really say that Harston will provide consistent production? isnt he kind of in the same spot that sledge was in last year?
September 13, 2007 at 10:34 am
he Keith Law taking a shot at Boch
Mark (Petaluma, CA): Last night, Bruce Bochy let the Giants most useless reliever (Atchinson) bat for himself in the 5th inning of a 1 run game with an expanded roster. Next inning, torched of course. Please comment on the absolutely incredible level of stupidity one most possess to allow this to happen.
Keith Law: (1:32 PM ET ) It’s Bruce Bochy. After last year’s NL Division Series, how could this surprise you?
September 13, 2007 at 10:38 am
17: In the very small sample with the Padres (in Petco) he has looked much more promising than sledge and he is much younger.
September 13, 2007 at 10:39 am
I believe Sledge had some chemical enhancement while putting up that nice line in Montreal circa 2004.
September 13, 2007 at 10:40 am
#19: Bingo. Thanks.
September 13, 2007 at 10:42 am
Re: 19 I dont think he has looked that much better at the plate than sledge did.
Re: 20 I would agree but he has not lost his power though.
September 13, 2007 at 10:43 am
re 22: No his power is still there….but if he lost some bat speed then that would certainly explain the loss of eye and average
September 13, 2007 at 10:48 am
#18: Here’s hoping that the Giants and their fans continue to blame Bochy rather than the real culprit, Brian Sabean, for the team’s struggles.
#22: Except the results have been better. When given the opportunity, Hairston has produced; Sledge hasn’t. It’s a limited sample, sure, but Hairston deserves credit for what he did before he got hurt.
September 13, 2007 at 10:50 am
24: Plus Hairston has looked better in the field.
September 13, 2007 at 10:57 am
I agree Harston is a better prospect, I just dont see him as a starter, thats why I was compairing him to sledge.
September 13, 2007 at 11:03 am
#26: Neither of them is a prospect, but Hairston is a better short-term option. I don’t see either as a starter, although Hairston at least has a chance.
September 13, 2007 at 11:08 am
Re: 27 I was using the term very loosley, I meant a big leauge player.
I just really hope that Sledge is not on the team next year and they do not try and stick Harsont in LF ala sledge at the start of the year. Thats was really where I was going with all of this.
September 13, 2007 at 11:08 am
I’ll defend Sledge. Last year at Portland he put up a .311/.402/.583 when he got regular playing time. That’s not a guy that has lost his power, his batting eye, or his ability to hit for average. Brady Clark has put up OPS+ the past two years of 77 and 62, playing mostly full time last year. He cannot hit anymore. Hairston has an overall line of .237/.311/.419 this year, with a great hitter’s park for home for most of that. He deserves credit for his 23 at bats with the Padres, but to think those have much use in forecasting his production for the rest of the year is overly optimistic. None of our options are very good. Sledge is almost certainly a better hitter than Brady Clark, and with a ground ball pitcher like Germano on the mound outfield defense should be less important. Hairston is in a similar position to Sledge: he’s dominated AAA but sucked in the majors. He has age on Sledge; Sledge has favorable platoon matchups on Hairston.
Just as much blame should be placed on OG, Cameron, and Gonzalez for not reaching base to be driven in by Greene and Kouz as on Barrett and Sledge, who at least drew a key walk each.
September 13, 2007 at 11:14 am
Law also pointed to Petco as a reason for picking Webb over Peavy for Cy Young.
September 13, 2007 at 11:15 am
Law failed to look at the fact that Peavy’s Road ERA is much lower than his home
September 13, 2007 at 11:21 am
Sludge’s 2nd inning AB was just what I mentioned a while ago. 2 decent pitches to hit and he takes a 2 OB, batting 8th BB. His OBP has been elevated by pitcher friendly walks all year. Heck, last night his OBP was .333
September 13, 2007 at 11:22 am
31: Yes, but Petco is still helping him. His home ERA would just be even worse than it is now (relatively speaking, of course). It’s just coincidence that he has happened to have better starts. But even after you adjust for park and account for the greater number of innings Webb has thrown (as VORP does - I think), Peavy’s still having a better year than Webb.
September 13, 2007 at 11:24 am
32: If Sledge puts the ball in play, he has a 70% chance of making an out. By drawing the walk, Sledge turns over the lineup for the next inning so OG leads off instead of Germano, and it allows a run to score if Germano can draw a walk or get a fluke hit.
September 13, 2007 at 11:30 am
33: Well said.
34: I get that reasoning, but with a guy on second and Billingsley pitching, I vote for more aggressiveness, even if it was only the second inning, as mentioned in 32 (I myself forgot).
KLaw also repeated his assertion that Antonelli ain’t much to fancy - a utility player
September 13, 2007 at 11:31 am
29: Sledge is catching more than his share of grief, but he’s looked terrible recently. He was adequate in August, but everything’s magnified in September, and he’s been swinging a bamboo cane pole and wearing a blindfold in the outfield.
30: By any park-adjusted stat, Peavy has still been better than Webb. He’s got a substantial edge in VORP and WARP. The next-best pitcher behind Peavy is actually Penny. It’s that Petco tic again. Let’s stipulate that Petco improves a pitcher’s confidence so he becomes more aggressive on the road. He still has to make those pitches in 50% of his starts. It’s almost like penalizing a pitcher who comes up with a fantastic conditioning regime because other pitchers don’t follow it. What does it matter WHY Peavy might be pitching better than Webb or anyone else, adjusted for parks? It only matters that he IS.
September 13, 2007 at 11:34 am
Law has some serious hate for all things Padres….damn you KT….Peavy leads Webb in VORP 68.2-59.1.
I’d love for someone to try and force Law to explain why the best pitcher in baseball this season doesn’t deserve the Cy Young.
September 13, 2007 at 11:34 am
#29: Of course we cannot project Hairston to continue on his current pace, but based on what he’s done this year (as opposed to last season at Triple-A), he’s more deserving of a shot right now than is Sledge.
Clark vs Sledge is trickier. I can’t be objective because it pains me to watch Sledge try to play the field. That is just something I don’t need to see ever again. Bring back Kerry Robinson already.
#35: Re Antonelli, Law is missing the boat. His loss…
September 13, 2007 at 11:35 am
29: Success in AAA at age 30 is not that inspiring
September 13, 2007 at 11:43 am
37: He showed up here once before. Did someone tip him off?
September 13, 2007 at 12:05 pm
38 (LF): Kerry-O baby. Man he was bad. Remember the jump against the wall when the ball landed 10 feet away? Not 10 feet in front or behind, 10 feet laterally distant from him? It’s a position that any decent athlete should be able to play, but we’ve had some stinkers. Next year there’s at least some chance we’ll see Adam Dunn out there.
38 (Antonelli): I haven’t read Law’s work today, but when he was here he admitted that his assessment of Antonelli was based on seeing him last year. You’d think he might mention that now, that perhaps something has changed to send his SLG through the roof. Except for the all-telling August, of course. He’s either improved his physical power (strength, load, approach) or he’s using an aluminum bat and nobody’s noticing the sound.
39: There have been a fair number of players who hit well through the minors, never got a chance until they were older, and then were good major leaguers. Sledge may not be one of them, but it’s possible. Not the kind of thing I want to experiment with two weeks before the end of the season, though. I would also take the slightly younger Hairston. He was beating up minor league pitching at a younger age.
September 13, 2007 at 12:08 pm
Kieth Law was on Ducksnorts?
September 13, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Re: 41 I think the chances of seeing Dunn in LF next year are slim and none, and slim just left the building.
September 13, 2007 at 12:11 pm
33: Oops, I left out a clause in that third sentence. It should read “It’s just coincidence that he has happened to have better starts on the road.”
September 13, 2007 at 12:12 pm
42: Did you miss that? It was relatively awesome.
43: We’ve expressed interest in him before. I didn’t realize that he gets a no-trade through June 15th if the Reds pick up his option, which turns into a limited no-trade after that. That makes slim slimmer. I can’t imagine him signing with us if they don’t pick up the option. He’s from Texas, he could sign with the Rangers and hit 60HR at 1b or DH.
September 13, 2007 at 12:18 pm
38: Against righties, Hairston has a .703 OPS this year. Sledge has a .698 OPS. Adjust for ballpark, and Sledge has hit better this year against righties than Hairston. (In a whopping 45 PA, Clark has a .552 OPS against righties this year.)
September 13, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Re: 45 exactly why I dont see Dunn with the Pads, he lives and dies with the long ball. If the REds pick up his option (which they will) and trade him (which id bet they will) then im sure Dunn will only approve trades to teams with ballparks that fit his style since he will be in a contract year. Also I dont think the Pads will be willing to part with the prospects necessary to get Dunn from the reds.
If for some reason the Reds do not pick up his opption then the pads would have to over-pay him and sign him to a long term deal for him to be willing to play in Petco.
September 13, 2007 at 12:27 pm
46: Neither of them has 700 at-bats as a major leaguer. It’s hard for me to make judgments on that. Sledge has hit RHP well in the past, but for his career he’s nothing special in that role. I’m inclined to give the nod to Hairston next year because I still have old copies of BA that just rave about his bat.
September 13, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Re: 42 yeah I guessed I missed it how long ago was it and did he say why he decited to come on?
September 13, 2007 at 12:33 pm
49: Just last week. I don’t recall him saying how he got to DS. Maybe a TrackBack.
September 13, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Ultimately, yeah, I probably want Hairston in there over Sledge. Better defense, a little more upside long term. But my main argument is, let’s not crucify Sledge (especially not over one game where he wasn’t even the biggest problem) and glorify Hairston when Hairston has sucked this year too and the difference between them isn’t all that large.
September 13, 2007 at 12:51 pm
51: Agree. Sledge is kind of in the Branyan boat. Together they hit 14 HR in a little over 300 at-bats, which is really pretty good for two bench players in our home park, and they’ve been treated worse than Blum.
September 13, 2007 at 12:58 pm
Regarding the whole Sledge/Hairston (Clark doesn’t really figure in unless as a defensive replacement as he can’t hit) the main hope is that we are only looking at a few more games. Personally, I’d rather play Hairston out there and hope that he gets hot. Sledge just isn’t a realistic option anymore. He has just stopped hitting (he has 1 hit since August 26, 1-19 and is 7-46 .146 since the ASB). Hairston may not be any better, but he certainly can’t be any worse.
Both Hairston and Sledge have good minor league numbers but Hairston’s are better (not taking into park effects): 322/396/571 for Hairston and 309/393/490 for Sledge.
September 13, 2007 at 1:04 pm
#41: Like Ruben Rivera’s baserunning, Kerry’s defense is not the sort of thing one forgets. The best part is that he was laughing after the play.
#42: See comments 41 and 49 in below thread:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....ug-07.html
September 13, 2007 at 1:08 pm
To be honest, I’d rather see Ruben Rivera in LF over Sledge.
Take that for what it is.
September 13, 2007 at 1:10 pm
Awesome thanks G.Y!
wow T.W. you did a great job with him, that really does not help my opinion of Law, although for some reason I continue to read his chats every week. He came off sounding so defensive against a couple of every day Padres fans. I’m really surprised he cares what a couple of guys (gals?) from SD care about him.
September 13, 2007 at 1:18 pm
Supposedly in the UT today they were saying they were reassessing the Germano situation to see IF they’d give him another start.
I mean, with only 3 starters what else can we do? I wouldn’t mind seeing Geer or Leblanc once their playoff season ends for a start or two but I doubt there’s a chance of that.
September 13, 2007 at 1:23 pm
Re: 57 why start thier MLB clock? I really dont think at this point in the year they are a better option than Germanno Cassel or Tomko.
September 13, 2007 at 1:23 pm
#56: Not a problem! This is why ESPN lives only at the very edge of my consciousness, BTW. San Diego baseball fans are not their target — not even close — and we should stop wishing otherwise. IMHO, it cheapens us in the same way that chanting “Beat LA” does.
September 13, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Re: 59 well its hard not to wsh for it, better ESPN coverage would probably lead to more revenue for the club (ie caoturing more fans who are not in an MLB market) which we have all discussed to no end.
September 13, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Sorry that is suppose to say
(ie capturing more fans who are not in an MLB market)
I really need to re read these posts before I hit send.
September 13, 2007 at 1:29 pm
Re: 59 doing the wave and having those stupid boat races every game cheapens SD a lot more than chanting Beat LA
September 13, 2007 at 1:34 pm
#62: The wave is lame. Still, that and those boat races (or some variation) go on everywhere. OTOH, we seem to be one of the few cities that actively cheer against another city (well, except for Boston and New York, which have a rivalry that both sides acknowledge). It makes us seem very provincial, IMO.
September 13, 2007 at 1:39 pm
Re: 63 Meh maybe its my pure hatred of the dodgers that obscures my views on the beat LA chant but if nothing else it brings SD fans together.
September 13, 2007 at 1:56 pm
64: Agreed, I think the Beat LA chant really fires up a crowd. It’s nice to see Padres fans have some swagger from time to time. Plus, as a transplanted San Diegan that (unfortunately) lives closer to LA than SD, any way I can manifest my distaste for all things Southland makes me happy.
September 13, 2007 at 2:18 pm
64: I love my dad’s story of telling the local little league that he wouldn’t accept coaching a team with a Dodgers uni. And he’s a “it’s just a game” kinda guy.
September 13, 2007 at 2:22 pm
There is no way I would let my kid (I dont have one so this is hypothetical) play on a little league team named the dodgers or a pop warner team named the Raiders.
September 13, 2007 at 2:26 pm
58 - I guess when something sucks I’m willing to take a chance on the unkown rather than what we already know sucks.
September 13, 2007 at 3:31 pm
How’s this……….my two year old is chanting “Beat LA” all the time now ever since I took him to the game two weeks ago when Boomer pitched for the doggers at Petco.
I love it. He is so enthusiastic about it. It makes me proud and bring a tear to my eyes.
September 13, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Re 69: makes me feel warm inside that there is another generation already being trained to dislike the dodgers!
September 13, 2007 at 4:02 pm
69/70 … i’m gettin’ teary eyed just readin’ about it … well done PF4L!!!
September 13, 2007 at 4:05 pm
Has anyone seen a statistical analysis of the additional RP9 generated by having the pitcher make the last out vs. starting off the next inning? It’s hard to imagine that the incremental gain would negate the motivation to walk a #8 with runners on base and 2 out.
September 13, 2007 at 4:07 pm
63 … the next best thing to a two-way-rivalry is a one-way-rivalry … in fact, it just proves how little I care about Dog fans …
September 13, 2007 at 4:41 pm
#65 If you’re doing that tonight, you’re “braver” than me, but Storm shirt’s dirty so Padres it will be.