What to say about Wednesday night’s win (box score)… Huge? Yeah, a little. Fun? You bet.
Jake Peavy struck out just one batter over seven solid innings en route to his 19th win. First time since August 2003 he’s registered fewer than two strikeouts in a game.
Matt and Mud speculated that maybe Peavy had purposely changed his approach to save some bullets for Sunday in Milwaukee if needed. In the post-game interview, Peavy confirmed as much.
Bob Scanlan in the wrap-up show wondered why Peavy worked the seventh with a seven-run lead. He’d thrown 81 pitches through six, and getting him out of there might have made sense if Bud Black was thinking of using him again on short rest.
Then again, with four coming up in Milwaukee, Black probably needs as many fresh arms out of the bullpen as he can get. It is kind of nice to make it through a game burning only Justin Hampson and Wil Ledezma.
On offense, every starter had at least one hit. Kevin Kouzmanoff continues to be ridiculous. With two more knocks, his batting average now stands at .280 and his OPS at 802. Since the All-Star break he’s batting .333/.386/.548.
Meanwhile, Josh Bard is quietly putting together another solid season. Among NL catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, only Russell Martin has an OBP higher than Bard’s .367.
Bard is outperforming bigger name brands such as Ivan Rodriguez and ex-Padre Ramon Hernandez (who is due a minimum of $16.5 million over the next three years). Yeah, it’d be nice if Bard could nab the occasional base stealer, but if you’ve watched anyone other than Brett Tomko try to hold runners at first, you know that’s not going to happen.
Khalil Greene? He’s healthy and putting up the numbers we figured he would one of these years (I thought it would be ’06). Yeah, the OBP stinks; still, I’ll take 71 extra-base hits from a shortstop any day.
There’s more to tell, but I have to stop somewhere. Always more to tell. That’s why we keep watching, eh?
Hey all of y’all don’t forget that Tulowitzki is a 22 year old rookie. Saying he can’t hit outside of Coors is a bit premature at this point. And the offensive metrics I put up, VORP and OPS+, both adjust for park factors and they both put Tulowitzki ahead of Greene this year.
OBP is still the most important offensive factor; to paraphrase CM, not making outs is HUGE and KG makes WAY too many outs. His horrendous OBP drags down his high SLG to such an extent that, yes, he is below average, at least in terms of OPS+, where 100 is average and aside from his rookie year he has been a 97 OPS+ guy.
Now KG isn’t much below average and it’s possible Tulowitzki will regress the same way KG did, but right now I’d put my money on Tulowitzki being the better offensive performer even after adjusting for park factors.
101: I agree with those points. My main problem was the question of how replaceable Greene is. We shouldn’t trade him to slightly improve ourselves and spend every cent of our budget in the process.
100: i gues thats a difference in opinion. If your paying less for a better younger player that has something to do with it to me. His value has also been off the charts in May and down this important strech in September when we are in a pennant race.
103: We didn’t pay money directly for Kouzmanoff, but we did pay Barfield, in whom we’d invested a draft bonus and years of development. We didn’t get Kouz cheap. The only way Kouz has been better is if we completely remove his April and put almost no weight on fielding.
Can you really hold it against Iwamura that the Rays aren’t contending? Kouz has been amazing, but Iwamura is not an argument against Japanese players. You don’t have to give up talent to get them, and in many cases they produce.
RE: Santanta… Wouldnt it be fun if him and Jake were matched up for the series when the Twins come to Petco?
105: More fun if they’re throwing for the Padres in the first two games of the series.
Matt Latos was named BA’s top prospect in the Northwestern League.
104: And Barfield played a solid season for us and then was replaced by a better player, so we got Kouz for the $ of Barf which is probably still less than the price of Iwamura who is not as good. It many cases they do produce, but often times not their worth IMO. I am not against Japanese players, just the posting fee that comes with them.
102: Agreed, Greene is not necessarily easily replaceable even if he is frequently overrated by Pads fans.
105: Oh yeah! It’s always great to see a super matchup like that. I still remember going to see Jake vs. the Rocket when he was with Houston. It brings out the best in competitors like that when they’re up against one another.
107: Kulbacki was 6, Canham was 14, former Padre Kyler Burke was 16.
Wow … count me amongst the Micah Owings fans …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270927123
Now that’s a ball game!
My favorite Micah Owings fun fact is that he’s the last pitcher to beat Oregon State in a College World Series elimination game (whilst pitching for Tulane) … that was back in 2005 (the team that featured Jacoby Ellsbury, heard of him now?) … before Oregon State won it all in 2006 and 2007 …
106: Agreed, but seeing the arguably 2 best pitchers in their respective league go against each other would be fun to watch.
There wont be a posting fee for Fukudome as he’s a free agent. He can sign with anyone he likes, just like Matsui a few years ago.
Has any pitcher played somewhat regularly in the field and pitched in the same year? The D-backs would be smart to do so. Owings is a decent pitcher and i dont know if they have many other starting options in order to move him to a position, but the kid can rake.
108: Barfield was essentially the posting fee for Kouzmanoff/Brown. That’s not a small price, and in trades you have to find a match. With free agents / posted Japanese players, it takes money, but you don’t lose any talent, which is a big benefit.
One big advantage to the typical Japanese player is that he’s under club control for six years. You’re almost always getting the player cheaper than you would a comparable free agent, and the posting fee doesn’t have to count as payroll. It’s almost like drafting a major-league ready player, paying a signing bonus than in some cases is comparable to what you’d give an 18 year old, and having almost none of the uncertainty that he might not ever play in the majors. Some players get such ginormous posting fees that it’s not comparable, but not all.
113: I guess my point was we have better options in-house for LF than Fukudome and should really be concentrating on getting a CF that can play in Petco (Adam Jones?).
114: Not regularly and recently. Brooks Kieschnick was a full-time reliever and part-time PH with Milwaukee in 03/04. The Braves thought about it with LaRoche.
116: They won’t go after Fukudome for LF. They’d only approach him if they think he can play CF.
115: I guess you would have to throw Bradley in there too. Kouz Bradley and in hindsight we didnt really lose any talent in Barf since he has not performed this year.
How can you judge what a comparable free agent is to a japanese player? They may not be “major league ready”.
The signing bonus paid to a drafted player is and incentive to sign with us, the posting fee is not. The major league contract is an incentive for the japanese player to sign with the club.
117: I dont think any scouts see Fukudome as a CF especially in Petco. Most see him as a corner OF. At least that is what I have read.
Sorry, my last post was under the name Grrech. (had someone looking over my shoulder and don’t want to reveal my secret identity)
I doubt Fukudome would make a very good CF in Petco. I’m not sure he’d make a good LF in Petco either. Though he has been injured so maybe that will mean a discount?
I can only think of one current player in Japan who could be considered a can’t miss type guy, and that’s Yu Darvish, and he won’t be posted for awhile.
Re: 120 good job now who ever saw you post as Grrech will know that Zagz is you
118: We did lose Barfield’s buying power. It’s like spending a really good counterfeit $50. Just because the bill is later found to be counterfeit doesn’t mean you couldn’t have bought other stuff with it. Barfield’s later struggles show that the front office knew what they were doing, but it doesn’t minimize the cost.
1. Most Japanese players have succeeded in the US. Not all, but the majority. You have a lot more data on them than on drafted kid.
2. The name doesn’t matter. You’re still spending money. You’re still securing the rights to that player. The big difference is, the drafted prospect doesn’t need a major league contract because he’s not playing in the majors (and may never). The Japanese guys move right to the bigs, they’ve got to have a major league contract. The time is just telescoped down. If you draft a kid and he pans out, you’re going to pay him a major league contract eventually.
That OBP with KG makes him a much worse offensive player then he appears on the surface. If we bring this up when he is on one of his 6-60 streaks with no BB then people might feel a little differently.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them deal KG this off season as he is going to start getting expensive(5M?) and isn’t worth that kind of money.
If they can find a team that is going to over look the terrible OBP and point to slightly above average defense and good power for a SS then they should be able to get back either:
-an outfielder that can actually hit
-a SP that doesn’t make much and should be better then league average(this was suppose to be you, Hensley!)
119: I’ve read different reports. Some scouts think he can play there, but Petco’s CF is so big he might be a bad fit. They’re not going to spend a lot of money bringing him in to play LF.
Cameron’s injury might reduce his price. Maybe they’ll gamble on a trade for Baldelli.
122: A player like Fukudome will want a 10-15 per year contract. I dont see the Padres spending that and we dont exactly need a corner OF we need someone who can play CF in Petco. Reports say Fukudome would have a hardtime playing CF in Boston. I still dont think spitting out that huge amount of money for a Japanese player, unproven at MLB level. For example to me Dice-K has not really been worth his cost to the Red Sox.
Re: 123 what SS out there could you get for less than $5 mil a year that is better than greenie?
124: I like Baldelli when he’s healthy. Isn’t he under contract to Tampa Bay? Anybody knows how much and how long?
re 126: I don’t think you’re look at it correctly. It’s easier to find a SS better then KG then it would be to find a comparable pitcher to the one you can trade KG for.
124: With Cam’s injury does he think about signing a short (2 year 3rd option) contract with the Padres? Offensively he has his weaknesses (K’s and K’s and K’s) but not many people could patrol Petco’s CF like he has.
Greene is a better than average hitting shortstop and a better than average fielding shortstop. OBP is important, but I really think some people here are undervaluing his power. 43 doubles, 3 triples and 25 home runs for a shortstop playing half his games in PetCo Park even with a piss poor OBP is still above average for a shortstop. That’s not an opinion. It’s a fact.
Cammy will be ready to go by next season so why would he have to sign a short term deal?
122: And thus the Padres are very unlikely to bid on him. Dice-K’s value is across the length of his contract. If he’s the dominant pitcher he was expected to be 2 out of the next 4 years and helps them win another WS, he’s more than paid for his deal. They get marketing benefits, the Japanese club may have kicked back some cash, and there was no way for the Red Sox to get a comparable talent.
126: Not to step on Mark’s toes, but that’s not really the whole story. It’s what you get for Greene plus who you bring in to replace him. If that combination is better than Greene, the trade may make sense. I only want to move him in a deal that brings back huge talent.
127: He’s definitely under contract, from like now until the end of time. But he’s broken. That’s the main reason the Rays might move him.
Baldelli has a lot of years but low annual value, IIRC.
Funny name mentioned on the Devil’s wire, er, Werndl Wire: Jason Bay. Supposedly, Pittsburgh wants to move his dollars. I think Werndl said $13 mil. Should SD be interested? (Werndl just reads the ledes from stories teased at Pro Sports Daily.com, from what I can tell.)
The problem is that the Padres are counting on Khalil to produce runs. If the rest of the lineup is better at producing runs, a slight drop in run producing but higher OBP and speed would be useful with decent glove at SS.
Khalil for all his power prowess with the bat is making outs in 3 of 4 PA at home and 2 of 3 PA on the road. That’s too often. However, there’s no telling if Khalil’s approach to his ABs will/won’t change if he’s not counting on to drive in runs. His walk rate (BB/K) has been dropping off every year.
As for the $4-5 million/year, I think Khalil is worth that to the Padres next year. It’s not crazy Wilson’s money but it’s not Hanley Ramirez cheap either. Way better than Julio Lugo’s deal.
If you can make a deal for Bay built around KG….it is an absolute no brainer
131: That’s not a given. He’s going to need surgery on his hand. That may scare some teams.
133: Perfect description of Werndl. The Pirates have talked about moving their “veterans” for young impact players. We may not match up.
135: Agreed. There’s absolutely no way you make that deal.
132: But no one had seen his talent at the MLB level so there is no way of knowing what comparable talent would be. There were pitchers to be had that had comparable years to Dice-K this year. He started off hot, but MLB caught on.
Jason Bay has a .338 wOBA this year. League Average for a Left Fielder is .350. I’m not sure how good his fielding is, but I doubt it makes up for being a below average hitter.
Darren Smith says Ned Yost and the Milwaukee pitcher were suspended for the beanball thing last night against Stl.
Did anyone here think the Pads might start nailing a Giant or two over Cain’s histronics? Stupid, stupid.
135: Eh, I dunno about no brainer. How much different would Kouz’s line in LF look than Bay’s? And I’m a huge Bay fan, but LF is easy to fill. I’d still be looking to a pitcher or a stud CF.
Going along the reasoning that Khalil is the power bat playing SS, why couldn’t the Padres then try to find a high OBP with speed LF that can field and hit 10-15 HR a season a la Doc? If everybody else is clamoring for a power bat corner OF, the value of an OF a la Doc would be low, right? And as he proved during his stay with the Padres (thanks, Doc, for the great 2 years) Petco LF needs somebody good to patrol it, i.e. I don’t think Carlos Lee would have been a good fit for Petco despite his power bat.
Problem is where and how to find these type of player.
Padres LF in 2007: .807 OPS
Jason Bay in 2007: .748 OPS
And it’s more difficult to hit in PetCo than PNC.
141: Kouzmanoff put up better numbers this year than Bay.
138: That’s why you have scouts and analysts. It doesn’t only happen with Japanese players. The list of American major leaguers who signed giant contracts and busted is a lot longer. Again, it’s only one year. The league adjusted to him, he’ll adjust to the league. He may win two Cy Youngs and a WS or two before his time in Boston is over.
139: That’s one year, and Bay has been hurt. He was a stud the 3.5 years before that.
141: I second that. Bay is getting older by the minute and he’s not that good of a fielder out there. He’ll have as much trouble in Petco as Kouz will if he’s shifted there.
Yup Bay sucks because he had a bad year….how were his other years in Pittsburgh? Ooh that’s right, he’s a .900+ OPS guy with 100 BB a year before this season.
This is why you have scouts to tell you if he’s just disinterested playing for a last place team(my bet since they want to deal him) or if he suddenly lost a ton of production.
145: Bay was a stud in 2005. This season he has lost the ability to pull the ball with power. 2005 was most likely a fluke based on ridiculously high LD%.
141: 10-15 HR from Doc? Maybe with an aluminum bat. Really, that player is Brian Giles with a speed injection. He’s got the good OBP (better than Roberts), would be an outstanding LF, and has the power to hit that many HR.
143, 144: Yes, but it’s still just one year. Bay was a monster in 2005 and 2006. If he was still putting up a 320 EQA, then I’m with Mark, it’s a no-brainer. If his injury has slipped him back to the 285/295 range, then no.
148: Bay had a 325 EQA in 2005 and a 310 in 2006. 294 in his rookie year. Those are all studly numbers. He slugged over 500 all three seasons. That’s not a fluke. His injuries this year may mean he won’t hit like that again, but it’ll be because he got hurt, not because he was lucky before.