Jake the Efficient
Thu, Sep 27, 2007
by Geoff Young
What to say about Wednesday night’s win (box score)… Huge? Yeah, a little. Fun? You bet.
Jake Peavy struck out just one batter over seven solid innings en route to his 19th win. First time since August 2003 he’s registered fewer than two strikeouts in a game.
Matt and Mud speculated that maybe Peavy had purposely changed his approach to save some bullets for Sunday in Milwaukee if needed. In the post-game interview, Peavy confirmed as much.
Bob Scanlan in the wrap-up show wondered why Peavy worked the seventh with a seven-run lead. He’d thrown 81 pitches through six, and getting him out of there might have made sense if Bud Black was thinking of using him again on short rest.
Then again, with four coming up in Milwaukee, Black probably needs as many fresh arms out of the bullpen as he can get. It is kind of nice to make it through a game burning only Justin Hampson and Wil Ledezma.
On offense, every starter had at least one hit. Kevin Kouzmanoff continues to be ridiculous. With two more knocks, his batting average now stands at .280 and his OPS at 802. Since the All-Star break he’s batting .333/.386/.548.
Meanwhile, Josh Bard is quietly putting together another solid season. Among NL catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, only Russell Martin has an OBP higher than Bard’s .367.
Bard is outperforming bigger name brands such as Ivan Rodriguez and ex-Padre Ramon Hernandez (who is due a minimum of $16.5 million over the next three years). Yeah, it’d be nice if Bard could nab the occasional base stealer, but if you’ve watched anyone other than Brett Tomko try to hold runners at first, you know that’s not going to happen.
Khalil Greene? He’s healthy and putting up the numbers we figured he would one of these years (I thought it would be ‘06). Yeah, the OBP stinks; still, I’ll take 71 extra-base hits from a shortstop any day.
There’s more to tell, but I have to stop somewhere. Always more to tell. That’s why we keep watching, eh?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 27, 2007 at 8:25 am
The impressive thing about Kouzmanoff is that it doesn’t seem like it’s just a hot streak. He’s hitting the ball to all fields, driving outside pitches the other way, pulling the inside pitches, laying off the breaking balls he can’t hit. I’m sure the league will make some adjustments to him next year but I think we may be looking at a legitimate .300 hitter with 20-30 HR power. I’m inclined to not mess with success and just leave him at 3B and figure out something else for Headley.
September 27, 2007 at 8:27 am
Nice win yesterday. I think somebody should add Josh Bard to the poll for who will win lead the Padres in BA after another multi-hit night..he’s now hitting .286. Does he have enough plate apperances?
September 27, 2007 at 8:30 am
Re: 1 I second that!
September 27, 2007 at 8:37 am
#2: No, he does not, nor will he.
September 27, 2007 at 8:38 am
These last two nites have been true team victories. Yes, OG launched the game-winner on Tuesday, but everybody was contributing.
Last nite was more of the same, which I like. Adrian is still a little too cold for my tastes, but with Khalil, Kouz, and Bard leading the charge, I like our chances of playing in October.
September 27, 2007 at 8:42 am
It strange playing such important games against a team we have not seen all year. I know nothing about Mil, can someone out there provide the low down on them?
September 27, 2007 at 8:56 am
They hit homers. Ben Sheets is usually hurt. Done.
September 27, 2007 at 8:58 am
Pitch-to-contact Jack Cassel against this Brewers lineup scares me a little, though I still this lineup can be pitched to, sans Fielder. I would be surprised if he sees anything good. We saw what happened the last time the Padres truly challenged a big thumper (Ryan Howard at Petco Park earlier this season).
September 27, 2007 at 8:58 am
Is there a more unheralded player on the team than Josh Bard?
September 27, 2007 at 9:02 am
The Brew Crew has huge offense and decent pitching. They are the opposite of the Padres. We are going to have to put runs up against this team to win in thier hitters park. The nice thing to know is we swept Milwalkee at Petco this year so they are a very beatable team.
September 27, 2007 at 9:02 am
6. We swept the Brewers when they came to PETCO.
If we eliminate them from the post season early in the series, we may very well do it again.
September 27, 2007 at 9:03 am
Ugh, this will make your head hurt:
“Among the fun possibilities if that happens: The Padres theoretically could play in Milwaukee on Sunday, in Arizona on Monday, in San Diego on Tuesday, in Philadelphia on Wednesday, back in San Diego on Thursday and then in New York on Friday.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3038686
Let’s just win out and not get into this mess, mmmmkay?
September 27, 2007 at 9:07 am
Braun scares me just looking at his numbers? Is this guy as scary as his numbers suggest? He’s so consistent.
September 27, 2007 at 9:10 am
I’ll take Bard’s performance per dollar over Pudge, he of the 10-to-1 Ks to walks ratio. Nine frieking walks? He prolly takes that as a badge of honor.
September 27, 2007 at 9:12 am
It was a pleasure to watch last night’s game without the usual Padre suspense factor. Nice if we could get a few more of the “laughers” rather than the “nail biters.”
Clayton, #12: I’m with you. Let’s win out so we don’t need to worry about the rest.
September 27, 2007 at 9:13 am
13 … from everything I’ve read ever since he was drafted, the guy is very legit scary … be afraid, be very afraid.
September 27, 2007 at 9:15 am
I find it mildly amusing that I seem to be one of the few that still has a problem with KG…sure, he has 71 XBH, fantastic for a SS, but the bottom line is that he makes way to many outs. When your OBP is .290, you really are not being very efficient. For the numbers guys, his OPS is 753 and his OPS+ is 97…that is worse than Jhonny Peralta. And I don’t know that I remember a streaker hitter except for maybe Steve Finley. Wasn’t KG in yet another 1-for-20 slump or something when he hit that HR the other night?
No, I don’t have a ready solution, but I stand by my ascertation that we are better off trading him in a package deal once we can find a replacement SS. Maybe he can bring us the LF with pop we so desperately need.
September 27, 2007 at 9:22 am
Re: 17 would you send KG, Headley and one other prospect to the Bucko’s for Bay and Wilson?
September 27, 2007 at 9:23 am
17: I really think Hairston deserves a shot in LF next year (start getting Headley out there in AAA too). With what he has done since he came here he has earned a chance. SS doesnt have to be incredibly productive, Greene has been fine. Our big hole is going to be CF next year.
September 27, 2007 at 9:26 am
Interesting…would it need to be Headley? What about KG, Cla, and Hundley for Bay, Wilson, and Morris? We take on salary, but get the OF we need.
I don’t think I am very good at coming up with real baseball trades…FLB, no problem, but when it comes to eating cash, value of minor leaguers, etc. it is probably good for all of us that I am not trying to be a real GM.
September 27, 2007 at 9:27 am
#13: I saw his big-league debut (and first hit) at Petco back in May, and based on a sample size of one, the guy looked legit to me.
#17: By and large, you don’t want to trade a good shortstop for a good left fielder. The latter are much easier to find.
September 27, 2007 at 9:30 am
12: Assuming a 5 way tie (Pad’s, snakes, rox, Mets, Phillies) The way I see it, since the rox and snakes both have better H2H records against the Pad’s, the Pad’s don’t figure in the NLW crown. The H2H record of the rox/snakes would decide the NLW champ.
Currently, the rox have a better H2H record against the snakes (8-7) with 3 still to play. The loser of the H2H would then go with the Pad’s into the WC sweepstakes (since WC spots are not decided by H2H, the rox better H2H against the Pad’s doesn’t count at this point) and have some sort of playoff series with the WC entrant from the East.
The East: The Phillies have a better H2H against the Mets, so they win the NLE and the mets go to the WC playoffs.
Final WC playoff picture: Padres, Mets and loser of rox/snakes H2H.
September 27, 2007 at 9:31 am
17 … if all you want is a LF’er with “pop”, then why not move Khalil out to LF?
September 27, 2007 at 9:32 am
Re21…I don’t disagree with you, I just think KG’s percieved value is higher than his real baseball value, giving the Pads an opportunity to play “Moneyball”. I think there is an inefficiency here and we should be willing to take advantage of that.
September 27, 2007 at 9:33 am
22 … according to article linked in #12 (THANKS for that, Clayton), that’s not how it works … H2H only gives a team choice of home-field options … the theory being that H2H can decide seeding in post-season, but not in-or-out … ie. all in-or-out decision are decided by a tie-breaker game … which seems like solid policy to me.
September 27, 2007 at 9:34 am
Re: 20 no way would the bucko’s go for that
September 27, 2007 at 9:37 am
25: I am pretty sure that for divisional ties, they use H2H first to determine the winner, if the H2H is the same, then they use some other tiebreaker, but not playoff games. That is why the Pads and LA didn’t have a one game playoff last year (as I stated in my earlier email).
For WC, they do NOT use H2H, only playoff games.
September 27, 2007 at 9:38 am
Hence my caveat that I am no Real Life GM…
September 27, 2007 at 9:42 am
12, 25: I like Jayson Stark, but that doesn’t mean he is correct on this.
The only thing that might make it different is if they have a different set of rules for multiple ties but I doubt it.
They have to sort out the NL divisions first using the current tiebreaking rules (H2H, etc.) and then apply the WC tiebreaking rules (playoff games) to the losers of the of the divisional ties.
Of course, I could be wrong, I’ll admit that.
September 27, 2007 at 9:47 am
AZ takes the lead in the first 1-0
September 27, 2007 at 9:49 am
Did y’all see that there are reports the Pads would make a 1-year offer to Andruw Jones? Interesting…
September 27, 2007 at 9:49 am
26: I’m not so sure Pittsburgh would balk. They want to unload Wilson and Morris, now that they have a sane GM. They’d probably rather use Bay to get exciting young talent under control for a long time, but I could see them doing it. Which leads me to…..
20: Why would we even consider that? We get worse at shortstop, get a barely league-average pitcher, and a good LF, and it costs us nearly 22M? Really, it’s 21.75 million in 2008 alone! 9.5 for Morris, 6.5 for Wilson, and 5.75 for Bay, the only player who adds any production. And it gets worse, we gotta pay Morris and Wilson in 2009, and they both have buyouts for 2010.
Kouzmanoff could be a similar hitter to Bay, without Bay’s defense, and it doesn’t cost us anything to put him in LF.
September 27, 2007 at 9:52 am
Re: 32: Do we really get worse at SS? Wilson’s OPS and OPS+ this year are higher than KG’s and he is a lot better with the glove.
September 27, 2007 at 9:53 am
31: NOT GONNA HAPPEN… Why would Jones come to Petco for one year? He wants to go somewhere to try and pad his numbers, he will go to a much more hitter friendly park
September 27, 2007 at 9:54 am
17: You still aren’t considering his D in this discussion. Going into Monday’s contest, he had the third best Fielding Percentage in the NL (obviously a flawed metric.) Khalil ranks 4th in ZR, behind Vizquel, Tulowitski, and Reyes. He’s tied for third in Fieling with Rollings and Wilson, behind only Tulo and Vizquel, who are tied for first.
Thus, given these metrics, the people more defensively sound than Khalil are Tulo and Vizquel. Tulo, who has a great OPS, also plays in a park that really caters to his play there. I know people were getting into this yesterday, but project Khalil’s numbers at Colorado out over a full season, and you get a pretty nice result. Tulo’s road numbers aren’t pretty.
So basically, Khalil is the third best defensive SS in the NL, and is only behind Tulo offensively (of the defensive-minded SS) because of his home park. I’d say that if anyone is mis-valuing a player here, it’s you.
September 27, 2007 at 9:55 am
32: Kouz stays at 3B, Hairston or Headley end up in LF thats my guess
September 27, 2007 at 9:55 am
Re: 31 Thats just spin form the Pads, they know there is no way that Jones will take a 1 year deal anywhere let alone in Petco, but they can say he we took a run at a big name guy.
September 27, 2007 at 9:57 am
35: His home park doesnt change his inability to take pitches. But i think you are right, KG is fine at SS. The only upgrade we could get over him is a guy wil a bit more speed like Reyes or Rollins.
September 27, 2007 at 9:59 am
33: By what metric is Wilson better than Khalil with the glove? Also, Wilson has had a freakish second half, posting an OPS of .981. His first half was .681. His career average OPS is .689 over several seasons.
Khalil has a career OPS of .755. So please, tell me what I’m missing here.
September 27, 2007 at 9:59 am
Phantom…you know as well as I do that Everett (Hou), Wilson (Pit), Tulowitski (Col), Vizquel (SF), and Reyes (NYM) are all better than KG and with a little more thought, I probably could come up with one or two more in the NL alone. That puts him right in the middle of the pack with the glove…at best.
September 27, 2007 at 10:01 am
33: Wilson’s OPS+ this year is 6 points higher, a margin that could close or open slightly over the next few games. Khalil’s career OPS+ is 22 points higher. Greene’s entering the traditional peak of his career, Wilson is at the end of the normal peak, age-wise.
Phantom has dissected the defense.
September 27, 2007 at 10:02 am
32: Great points. No need to take on salary and Morris. I hate Morris.
33: Wilson is not better than KG. If you hate KG streakiness, you’d hate Wilson’s. Take his September number out and we have a less productive hitter with better glove at SS. The Padres do not need that. Oh, he’s older and more expensive too.
34: Sure, but why won’t the Padres give him an offer. No harm in that.
September 27, 2007 at 10:03 am
29 - I could be wrong, but I believe that the H2H is only used as the tie-breaker when both teams are in the playoff (i.e. last year with SD-LA, one is NLWchamp, one is WC). When the tiebreaker means 1 teams sits at home, they use a game. Again, could be wrong, but an experienced baseball writer like Stark wouldn’t be ignorant of H2H’s impact.
September 27, 2007 at 10:04 am
2-0 D-Backs. Michah Owings with a RBI double…. Again we pose the question, can he play left field?
I read that they were thinking of playing him in the field and having him pitch next year… has anyone ever done that before?
September 27, 2007 at 10:06 am
35: Nice analysis. Tulowitski can’t hit outside of Coors. That makes him way less valuable to the Padres.
September 27, 2007 at 10:06 am
For further reference Re: KG’s defense, Baseball Think Factory put KG below Everett, Eckstein, Vizquel and Reyes in 2006 and had him just above Barmes, whose ranking was actually better, but just had fewer innings.
http://www.baseballthinkfactor.....00_innings
September 27, 2007 at 10:07 am
3-0 RBI Double Stephen Drew
September 27, 2007 at 10:07 am
36: They might move Headley to left field, but I’d be disappointed. Might as well minimize the defensive damage. It wouldn’t be surprising for Headley to be traded if they’re set on Kouz at 3b.
40: The comparison isn’t between Greene and all other shortstops. It’s between Greene and Wilson. Wilson may look like more of a shortstop, but he doesn’t play more like one.
September 27, 2007 at 10:08 am
40: Really, you think Reyes is a better short stop than Khalil defensviely? Don’t get me wrong, dude is fast. But he doesn’t make consistent plays on balls (funny, that was the knock on Khalil a few years ago).
Reyes is a VASTLY overrated talent, in my honest opinion. He’s fast, wow. Good for him. Hanley Ramirez is a better overall player, despite being a butcher in the field.
There’s no way you can sit there with a straight face and tell me that Khalil is not one of the better all-around SS in the NL. If you could replace him, it would be a short list of:
Tulo
Rollins
Ramirez (and the D isn’t there)
Maybe I just under-value Reyes because the only times I’ve ever seen him, he plays like crap. I don’t put much stock in stolen bases. Plus, of those here (Tulo, Rollins, Ramirez, Reyes), only Rollins and Ramirez have more power. Oddly enough, Rollins plays in a small park (He’s hit 6 more jacks at home and his SLG is 50 points higher at home).
September 27, 2007 at 10:10 am
Last night was really fun to watch! Offense was a nice change. Did anybody else notice the exceedingly tender cheek pat that Barry gave Jake after his primadonna final at-bat? I’d love to know what they were actually saying to each other.
September 27, 2007 at 10:10 am
48: i just think that they wont want to make Kouz switch when he finally settled in. The defense will come. I’d love to see Headley in LF, I would also like to see Hairston get a shot. He has proved to have power hitting HR’s and doubles in PETCO and SF, the 2 toughest parks to hit at.
September 27, 2007 at 10:11 am
For clarification and correction, the rankings listed in 46 were done before the season had been completed. The link below is a year end link that is more accurate according to BTF…
http://www.baseballthinkfactor....._i_see_it/
Still putting Everett, Vizquel, Reyes, and Eckstein above KG last season.
September 27, 2007 at 10:16 am
49: I think you are under valuing Reyes. He is just as good on the field as KG and much younger. Speed doesnt mean much when you steal 20-30 bases a year, but when you are stealing 80+ you are giving your team a legit chance to score nearly every time you get on base. Not to mention he can turn a KG single into a double and then steal 3rd to make it a triple. KG has got to be close to the slowest SS in the league. What you lose is some power, but SS should not be your power position and if our line-up wast stronger it wouldnt matter.
September 27, 2007 at 10:16 am
Phantom…from the NL alone, I would rather have Tulowitski, Rollins, Ramirez (although to be fair, he is TERRIBLE with the glove) and Reyes…
I don’t deny that KG is a solid SS with very frustrating numbers…the bombs and doubles are fun, but dude needs to get on base more. Like I said before, if his perceived value is higher than his real value, then we need to find a way to leverage that…I think we are in that situation now.
September 27, 2007 at 10:19 am
52: Of those, I can only see Reyes being more valuable to the Padres than KG at this point. Everett can never hit (he should have had two gold gloves), Vizquel neither at his age and getting older, Eckstein has regressed. Reyes is much more expensive.
September 27, 2007 at 10:20 am
If you’re interested, this is copied from an email exchange I had with my brother in law who’s a lifelong, diehard Brewer fan.
“If you’re going to be watching the games, which I assume, here’s a quick scouting report on the Brewers right now:
Pitching - Gallardo has been pitching fantastic and yes, I would also expect this to be the game the Brewers would win if they only win one. Sheets isn’t going to pitch Friday-you’ll get Capuano or maybe Vargas. Cappy has been better lately, but still has gone 3+ months without a win-very sad. Bush pitches better at home, but will still be scored on, and it’s usually one or two big innings that kill him. Suppan has been the third best pitcher(Gallardo, Villanueva) for the Brewers this last month throwing almost all quality starts. Where you’ll get us is when it gets turned over to the bullpen- they have been awful lately and I don’t expect anything different in the next four days. You’ll probably see one of those 2-out, game winning home runs the Padres have been good for this year.
Hitting - the offense has been mostly hot lately, but they are very inconsistant, so I don’t expect you see 7 runs a game for four days. My guess is they hit well in a couple and tank it in a couple. Braun and Fielder are very hot right now and Hart and Hardy have been cold. Weeks has been his old self for this last month. You just want to pitch to Jenkins, Hall and Miller right now because they stink and you need to take those outs. Estrada is out the rest of the year and Miller is a defensive catcher, so you won’t see much offense out of his spot.
Of course, when all else fails, you can always count on Ned to screw something up - you have a three run advantage to start the game with him on the bench.”
September 27, 2007 at 10:24 am
On Greene’s D …
Justin at Baseball and the Reds calculated runs above/below avearge based on THT’s zone rating data. Here it is …
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com.....-data.html
Greene’s 10 runs above average (8th overall). Wilson +15. Reyes +15.
Anyway, there’s no way Greene’s in the middle of the pack. His fielding is well above average. There’s of course going to be some error in this metric, but I believe it’s better than anything mentioned yet. He was also doing very good by UZR when it was updated around the all star break (like +9) and I think he did well by the numbers last year.
September 27, 2007 at 10:24 am
51: His defense has been suspect for some time. It’s not unprecedented for a player to get better, or to have a better year, but it’s not common.
53: Khalil doesn’t need to steal second, he’s either there or at home plate. But he would be much more valuable not making outs as often. And I don’t care what form the offense takes. We’re getting power and defense from SS at an affordable rate. It will be very hard to draft/develop, trade for, or sign an impact bat, so offense everywhere is important.
54: I don’t disagree with your last sentence. There are lots of situations in which trading Greene may make sense. For a package of steamy Pittsburgh crud isn’t one of them, though. A big package built around Greene, Headley, Kulbacki, and any two pitchers in the minors for Santana, for example.
September 27, 2007 at 10:24 am
Re: 55 — We will never get Reyes, but for the record their salary difference is negligable.
September 27, 2007 at 10:25 am
44: Man, I didn’t realize that Micah Owings is the owner of .929 OPS for the season. Wow. If he can play LF for about 2 days in between starts, that would be awesome for the Padres. Of course, who know how effective he’d be pitching while doing that.
Still, that’s darn impressive (small sample and all) with the bat.
September 27, 2007 at 10:26 am
I know it sounds like an excuse to always bring it up, but KG’s horrible OBP wouldn’t be so bad if he played a friendlier ballpark to hitters. He’s a 35+ HR guy in the NL Central or for Philly. (You know that as well as I do, to quote the devil, Philly Billy.) I find it almost laughable to compare Jack Wilson favorably to KG. Who cares what that singles hitter does in September in Pittsburgh? Next year he goes back to being Neifi Perez’s successor. And then there’s the salary.
Reyes’ star has dimmed some this year. I saw something recently that his .BA has dropped 40 points; he has a whole 12 home runs.
September 27, 2007 at 10:30 am
55: Reyes has a long-term deal with the Mets. The salary will be rising soon.
September 27, 2007 at 10:34 am
To put things in perspective:
Where would this team be this year without Khalil? Replace Khalil with a league-average shortstop, and see what happens.
Khalil is TIED (!) for the team lead in RBI and is second in HR. He consistently saves runs with his glove, and his pitchers love him. Why on earth would you trade away one of your offensive cornerstones?
Even Sandy and the FO have really come around and warmed up to Khalil. Obviously his OBP is not where we would like it to be. But the kid is still an extremely valuable piece of the puzzle, and you’d have to make sure you didn’t get hosed in any deal where he is traded.
September 27, 2007 at 10:35 am
Re: 58 what do you do at SS then?
September 27, 2007 at 10:38 am
58: Find one. Get Jason Bartlett back from the Twins in the deal. Sign Vizquel. Trade for a Kouz-like SS out of someone’s system. It’s a massive upgrade to the pitching staff, you can afford some loss of production at short.
September 27, 2007 at 10:40 am
61: I got a little hot there. Sorry ’bout that. Still don’t want Jack Wilson, tho. I’ll take Reyes, even if SBs add depressingly little, if you believe the studies. (BP’s “Between the Numbers” refers to an old study that said Rickey’s 130 steals in 1982 were worth 22 runs extra runs to the A’s. His 42 caught-stealings took 20 of those runs away for a net total of 2.6 extra runs.)
September 27, 2007 at 10:45 am
Shorter 56:
Pitching: ok to good with today’s guy the best
Bullpen: has seen better days, good with a gas can
Hitting: two real hot guys pulling the wagon, others inconsistant
Manager: three run handicap, nice
Padres:
Pitching: 1 real horse, 1 injured horse, 1 old horse (FHOF), 2 guys you never heard of
Bullpen: Good ‘n solid to great
Hitting: #!$*%@^&?$ - hits bad pitching, flumuxed by major league pitching
Manager: First year, steady, a thinker
Sounds like two similar teams cept for the bullpen and the record: If the pads played in the Central, they would be leading by 5 (lose column).
September 27, 2007 at 10:56 am
67: I think there are many more bad pitching than Major League pitching. The problem is the Padres hitters are confounded many times by bad pitching as well. So, yeah, they could be losing by 5 but they can also be leading by 5.
65: Man, getting Johan from the Twins would be a coup. Not happening, though. Nice to dream still.
September 27, 2007 at 11:24 am
Seriously, how can they bat Micah Owings in the 9 slot? This kid seems to be all world, but young, which leads to his inconsistency on the mound.
September 27, 2007 at 11:36 am
69: Remember when Dontrelle Willis was hitting in the 7th and 8th spot a few seasons back? Micah Owings should be in the 6th spot. Man, this kid is a beast with a bat. And he’s shutting out the opposition today.
September 27, 2007 at 11:38 am
67: Actually the Padres dont his bad pitching, they normally hit good pitching.
68: Someone getting Johan in the offseason is a very real possibility though. He isnt happy in minnesota and i think they would want to trade him while they can still get something good for him. The Twins would LOVE a 3B prospect, so Headley+ for Santana+ wouldnt be out of the question at all.
September 27, 2007 at 11:38 am
8-0 Arizona and Micha Owings has his third double (the most recent one a 3 RBI double)…crazy.
September 27, 2007 at 11:40 am
Re 71: Except the Pads would never do that b/c they would not have a chance to sign him to a deal.
September 27, 2007 at 11:40 am
Owings is 4 for 4 with 3 RBIs and a run today. Talk about helping yourself out… this kid should be batting in the middle of the order when he pitches
September 27, 2007 at 11:42 am
72: It was a 2 RBI double, but he can still flat out hit.
September 27, 2007 at 11:44 am
73: Which is the same reason the Twins wan to get rid of him. Its a slim chance, but the Pads may do it for 1 year of santana
September 27, 2007 at 11:46 am
75: He is also throwing a shutout while going 4 for 4
September 27, 2007 at 11:53 am
73: The Padres don’t want to sign him, or anyone, to a long-term deal. Acquiring Santana makes the Padres a WS favorite. If you give up a possibly blocked 3b prospect, a SS with flaws who is about to get expensive, and some other low-ceiling prospects, you’re shooting to win next year, and you haven’t lost irreplaceable pieces.
Not saying its likely, but the value for the Padres is on the field in 2008. Getting to the WS and having a great rotation is worth millions. Then they let Santana go. And if something terrible happens and we’re not competitive, you trade him mid-year and get some of the cost back.
But it’s not just Santana. It’s a player like that, where you’re capitalizing on Greene’s power numbers in trade talks. Not just moving parts around to get somewhat better in LF. The Marlins would be another target, since they’ve thought about moving Hanley off of SS to CF.
September 27, 2007 at 11:54 am
Headley wouldn’t be enough to get Santana. It would have to be more like Headley / Hundley / Hunter, and with no chance whatsoever of re-signing him the following year. I say no to that.
I don’t like the Andruw Jones idea either. That’s a lot of money for a guy who had a lower OPS this year than Giles, Bradley, Cameron, or Hairston (and just barely better than Mackowiak), and whose fielding is way in decline.
I want Kosuke Fukudome!
September 27, 2007 at 11:58 am
78: I have a hard time considering Khalil to not be irreplacable. It’s not like we have a whole lot of options on the farm when it comes to SS, and quality SS like Khalil are hard to come by.
As for him becoming expensive, I guess that will be interesting to see. I really don’t peg Khalil as the kind of guy to want oodles of money, and I think if the Pads offered him a 3 year/$10 million extension at the end of the year, that would be reasonable and a deal that would probably get done.
September 27, 2007 at 12:01 pm
Also, on the subject of trading Greene, who do we replace him with? David Eckstein? Juan Uribe? Omar Vizquel? The shortstop free agent market is rough this year.
Or do we trade for Renteria (or someone of his ilk) and further deplete the farm system?
September 27, 2007 at 12:02 pm
79: Dont worry about Jones, he wont come here. Petco wouldnt even be in the discussion for him. I dont know if it would take all 3 guys for JUST Santana. Like TW said it makes us legit front runners for the WS in 2008 and you lose pieces that are replaceable.
Just say no to Fukudome. Overpaying (posting fee) for a Japanese player that hasnt proven anything in MLB (Dice-K) isnt a smart way to spend your money IMO.
September 27, 2007 at 12:02 pm
[i]I really don’t peg Khalil as the kind of guy to want oodles of money[/i]
Barry Zito wasn’t a guy who wanted oodles of money, but his agent sure did.
September 27, 2007 at 12:06 pm
Overpaying (posting fee) for a Japanese player that hasnt proven anything in MLB (Dice-K) isnt a smart way to spend your money IMO.
Fukudome isn’t going to get a Dice-K posting fee. Think more along the lines of Iwamura, who has totally earned every penny when he’s been healthy. Plus, the added revenue from Japanese tourists / media / etc. usually pays for the posting fee by itself.
September 27, 2007 at 12:07 pm
[i]I dont know if it would take all 3 guys for JUST Santana.[/i]
Santana is the best pitcher in baseball. It is going to take a lot to get him.
September 27, 2007 at 12:08 pm
83: You’re really gonna compare the way Khalil and Zito do business? I can’t find Khalil’s agent anywhere on-line, but I have a pretty good feeling that Khalil is not somebody who wants money for the sake of having it.
September 27, 2007 at 12:09 pm
The Padres need to throw the kitchen sink at the Mariners for Adam Jones, though the Mariners will want Major League-ready pitching, not exactly a strongsuit of the farm system now.
September 27, 2007 at 12:14 pm
84: I just dont think its worth the money to go after a 31 year old Japanese player. I think there are better LF options.
Kouz has been much better than Iwamura (who hasnt been that good at all) in virtually the same amount of AB’s.
September 27, 2007 at 12:15 pm
80: Santana’s simply worth several more wins in a season than Greene. Coronado Mike, IMO, underrates him, but there’s no way he’s irreplaceable. Bartlett, former Padre farmhand now with the Twins, had a 14.8 VORP this year. Greene’s at 20.6. They do it differently; Bartlett has no power but gets on and has some speed. And he’s been an above-average defensive shortstop by BP’s measurements, which may not agree with others.
This was Greene’s first year of arbitration eligibility. Costs start increasing steeply.
79: Of course Headley wouldn’t be enough by himself. Nobody said he would. You really wouldn’t pay Headley (blocked), Hundley (likely future backup) and Hunter (years from the majors, maybe not a CF, not enough power for a corner OF) for a legitimate #1 starting pitcher? That gives us a rotation comparable to the DBax with the Unit and Schilling.
September 27, 2007 at 12:16 pm
85: He wasnt the best in baseball this year.