Things just keep getting worse around here:
| Year | W | L | Pct | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. | ||||
| 1999 | 55 | 68 | .447 | 16.0 |
| 2000 | 60 | 65 | .480 | 12.0 |
| 2001 | 62 | 62 | .500 | 10.0 |
| 2002 | 53 | 73 | .421 | 27.0 |
| 2003 | 49 | 79 | .383 | 28.0 |
| 2004 | 65 | 57 | .533 | 7.0 |
| 2005 | 61 | 62 | .496 | - |
| 2006 | 63 | 62 | .504 | 3.0 |
| 2007 | 66 | 57 | .537 | 3.5 |
I dunno; that’s what I hear, anyway…
AAA
Brady Clark: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2B (#1), BB, SO – USD represent!
Craig Stansberry: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; HR (#13), 2 SO
AA
Matt Antonelli: 3 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B (#9), 2 BB, SO
Tim Brown: 3 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; BB, SO
Cesar Ramos: 7 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO (11-9, 3.60)
High-A
No game scheduled.
Low-A
No game scheduled.
Short Season-A
Mitch Canham: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI
Kellen Kulbacki: 2 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB, SO
Jeremy Hefner: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO
Rookie
Shane Buschini: 3 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 2 RBI; BB, SO – another USD guy
Edgar Garzon: 3 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 2 RBI; SO
Jose Mayi: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 0 RBI
Edinson Rincon: 3 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; BB – born 8/11/90
Commentary:
Antonelli is profiled in a piece by Chris Constancio over at Hardball Times.
The Padres begin a three-game series against the NL East leading Mets at Shea Stadium Monday evening. We’ll have the IGD up and running by 3 p.m. PT or thereabouts. Go Padres!
#49
Why is it lucky to know what you have in your farm system?
49: If we move Kouzmanoff to LF, the demands on our CF go up. Which is manageable, but important.
My fanboy half loves the idea of a Headley-Greene-Antonelli-Agon infield. My wary realist half knows we’re unlikely to survive Kouzmanoff-like Aprils from two rookie position players.
re 51: It isn’t lucky that they know Headley/Antonelli are their 2 best prospects and MLB ready ones at that, BUT it is lucky that they both happen to be MLB ready at the 2 positions they need, the exact time when they are needed.
Do you think KT/Alderson/Fuson saw that far ahead when they were drafted?
re 52: Not sure it is fair to assume both Headley and Antonelli will get off to a start like Kouz’s…..I think it is fair to assume that both are better prospects then he was in April of this year.
54: I’m not predicting it, but it’s a possibility. Neither will have any AAA time, whereas Kouzmanoff had already been in the majors. If Alex Gordon can struggle, Antonelli and Headley can.
54.
I don’t think 52 was an assumption more than it was just a statement of possibilities. Rookies come up and struggle a lot and it’s just something I think we should be prepared to accept if we go young next year. If things turn out to be different then consider it a bonus. We can hope they come up and hit like Ryan Braun or Hunter Pence have this year but in all honesty that’s probably not going to happen. To be fair though Kouz’s skid was really really bad.
56: Kouz’s skid was awful. He hit incredibly badly in April. Since May 1, he’s been a league average hitting third baseman (.345 wOBA), but he’s actually below the overall league average of .334 on the year (.308) because of April. Please don’t point out his excellent May as the only reason for his rate stats since then. His wOBA from July 1 – Present is .344. Also note that these numbers aren’t park adjusted.
A lot of the problem with Kouz is that his defense has been bad, very bad.
They are going to have some serious decisions to make this off season.
57.
I only referenced Kouz’s struggles. I think he has had a pretty decent year outside of his recent defense and his early struggles. He hasn’t been great but he has been a complete bright spot at 3rd compared to last year. It helps that Barfield is not lighting it up for Cleveland as well.
57: League average isn’t what the team should be shooting for, though. Kouz has been acceptable at third base. He should get better with more playing time, but he’s not going to stand in Headley’s way. Now, if we trade Headley in a big deal (Santana, Cabrera), he’ll be just fine at 3b.
323-286 (.530) . This is the Padres record starting with the 2004 season. Which mlb clubs have a better record in this same time span ?
Last year at this time, the Pads were basically right at the .500 mark and went on to have a 88 win season. If we play at the same clip as last year down the stretch we will win 92 games. If we hit a more realistic mark of 24-15 in the last 39 then we win 90 games. So, 88, 90, and 87 win seasons in three of the last four years. In 1978-1995, I would have given almost anything to be a fan of a Padre team that accomplished this. Be critical but temper the criticism – please don’t portray this or characterize this ownership as not concerned about winning group. Go back to the Tom Warner led fire sale and see the years directly following to see what a failing ownership can do to a team.
re 60: Kouz has been acceptable at 3B…..ummm not so much if you want to continue to win.
According to BP Kouz has been 17 runs below average with the glove(ouch!!!) while only being 1.2 runs above replacement with the bat. As nice as his recent months have been they haven’t come even close to making up for April.
That D isn’t going to get any better and a .280/.340/.470 hitter isn’t going to make up for it.
58: Yikes, Kouz has been TERRIBLE at third? I think that’s a bit of an over-statement. He’s done fairly well at third IMO.
OT, but I’m listening to the audio from Sandy’s interview yesterday. He handles the utter stupidity and venom of some of these callers amazingly well.
Also, could anyone point to the fabled ’98 promise of winning a WS in Petco? People keep saying, “Yeah but they said we’d be better.” Please reference the above chart. Move along.
#58 . Kooz’s defense has , in my opinion, not been bad at all. Average at best, great at charging balls and throwing on the run, decent range but tends to not set himself when throwing after a dive.
It’s too bad things went the way they did for the Padres in Petco, if they would have just signed Vlad instead of trading for Giles the community would have an entirely different perspective of the team.
re 64: I don’t think I can find a single stat which shows Kouz to be even average
#65 My only gripe this past off season was there non attempt in trying to sign Carlos Lee. They could have got him last year (rented him last year down the stretch) and they should have stepped up and signed him last offseason as their big marquee FA pickup. Lee is a total stud –could fall out of bed and hit — and until a recent injury has proved to be quite durable.
I will acknowledge that the Padres need to take a few more risks with a couple of FA picks in the next 2 to 3 years which I believe they will.
More review material for folks here, but once again, MetsBlog has done a Q&A with me:
http://www.metsblog.com/blog/_archives/2007/8/21/3171654.html
#66 sometimes stats (especially fielding stats) don’t tell the whole story. KK is simply not a bad fielder. Average, yes. but not bad.
62: Yea, if you trusted those defensive numbers, Kouz is something like 16 runs below replacement level, which is awful of course. I don’t really trust those fielding numbers, though. UZR had him at 6 runs below average, although that was last updated like a month ago.
If we say he’s 10 runs below average, that still makes him like a win below replacement level, overall. Any way you slice it, he hasn’t been very good. And he sure has logged a lot of playing time.
67: Except for Lee clearly said in multiple places that he wouldn’t play on the West Coast. So no, we could not have gotten him.
#62 Totally agree with you about KK’s bat though – let’s face it, he has been a mild disappointment this year. KK is hardly a lock to develop into a big time player though he certainly has a shot. I also know that this season is NOT over the club still has 23% of its game to go and lately KK has had some really nice at bats. He gets hot and hits 20 blasts for the season with 65 rbi’s, then I feel a tad bit better about KK. As it is now, I would like KK to get 300-500 more at bats as a Pad before I judge him with any finality.
#71 O.k, didn’t know that Lee did not want to play on West Coast. Think the Pads would have stepped it up anyway ? Maybe not, which leads me to my tempered,balanced critique of the Pads of the brass not taking more risks –I want a Garvey or Hurst type signing in the next one to two years.
#53
I think they would have some idea of ETA for their top prospects, including those they have just drafted. I’m sure they have different timetables for Cumberland and Canham.
Kouz always looks solid on defense when I watch him, but the numbers aren’t pretty. His fielding percentage is a pathetic .932; only Ryan Braun has been worse among MLB regulars. He’s tied for fourth in errors among 3B, and the guys above him all have much higher assist/error ratios apart from Braun.
In Kouz’s defense, he has improved, and can continue to do so. He has a strong arm and his technique looks solid. But if not for Ryan Braun he would be quite easily the worst starting 3B in baseball in terms of fielding in 2007. If he doesn’t improve, it would be a mistake to not give him a look in the outfield.
62: I should have been more specific, I was speaking only of his bat.
73: Steve Garvey made $975,000 in 1985, and Bruce Hurst made $1,733,333 in his first season with the Padres. It was a lot easier to sign a star player in the collusion era than these days.
I’d love it if the Padres would spend more money, and I’m sure we all would. But I personally don’t think the Padres are a Carlos Lee or a Gil Meche away from perennial World Series contention. I think you have to build something that’s working and will continue to work, and then you supplement it with a difference maker.
60: I was only trying to show just how bad those struggles you referred to were. Nothing else.
60: League average (and again that’s league average for a third baseman, not league average period) before park adjustment pretty good for a rookie in PetCo Park.
79: Although, I do agree that Headley eventually takes the position and hopefully Kouz can play left field.
Nice, Geoff getting some love in the big apple. Well, blog love anyway. OK. I’m hoping we go 500 on this roady, then return to SD for 4, 3, 3 againts AZ, LA, AZ. That will be a big week no doubt. If we can come home just a couple back, that first 4 with AZ will be playoff intensity. Lets not get down now. Its time to stay loose and let it flow. I hoping Brian and Marcus can keep the clubhouse nice and relaxed. Prehaps some nude hyjinx are in order. This from a guy who has jumped off the bandwagon many times, but I’m changing my attitude. Going all Tommy Lasorda all the time. Believe, believe, and you can achieve.
77: Those salaries were still in the upper echelon for the time. Hal McRae was a better hitter than Garvey and made 800K in 1985. Don Baylor made less and he was signed by the Yankees.
79: It’s not a slight on Kouzmanoff. But a team can’t keep getting league-average production from multiple positions if it wants to win consistently. Viewed strictly in terms of a young player’s development, Kouz has been all right. Viewed in terms of the team, relying on league-average production at so many positions is one reason we’re looking up at Arizona.
82: League average numbers from a hitter in PetCo Park is above league average production.
77: The fact that they were in the upper echelon of that era means that salaries shouldn’t have been a concern for anyone in that era, when the owners were doubtlessly making money hand-over-fist.
In 1988 the Yankees had the highest payroll in baseball at $18,909,152. The Padres were near the bottom of the league then, just as they are now, but with a total payroll of $9,878,168. It’s easy to ask a team to spend a little more when that little a difference separates the top and bottom of the league.
Whoops, I meant 82!
I’d be happy with Moores went back to having a payroll 1/2 of what the Yankees spend….think about having 50M to spend this off season
84: Owners are making money hand-over-fist now. Revenue has exploded. The Yankees have also aggressively sought to maximize revenues, while the Padres have largely stayed in their box. Alderson’s statement that we get no revenue from Mexico, 10+ years after Lucchino wanted to target that market, should be the beginning of a new campaign, not an admission of defeat.
83: What are his numbers including June? From July 1 to now is about 7 weeks. So he’s been terrible for 4 weeks, great for 4 weeks, pretty bad for another 4 weeks, then slightly above league average for 7 weeks. I’m glad he hasn’t buried himself, even if his OBP remains terrible. But we need more from 3b. To be fair, we need more from almost every position.
Have you seen the wait at the border coming north lately? I wouldn’t count on many, if any fans being able to make it to Petco for a game.
Additionally, most of the middle class and wealthier citizens in Mexico aren’t exactly living directly next to the border. Combine that with the issues that arise from trying to get much of anything on tv in the developing world and I’m not sure I can see any way to get much revenue from Mexico at this point in time.
88: Much of the recent revenue expansion across baseball has nothing to do with attending games in person. The Mariners realize a lot of revenue from Japan that has nothing to do with Japanese tourists buying a ticket to Safeco.
Developing world? Mexico’s not Bhutan. TV revenue outside the US and Canada goes through MLB, but there are other avenues. For a team that shakes the couch cushions for spare change, even a couple million dollars would be worth chasing.
Remember how it was so hot in St. Louis and Cincinnati for the Padres’ games last week. This is a nice read:
http://tinyurl.com/32wz4r.
Who’d have thunk, Cabbage Boy = HoF.
89: In regards to Japan. All international TV revenue is split evenly among teams if I’m not mistaken, so Seattle doesn’t get anything extra for their games being on TV. When I was in Japan earlier this year, every Seattle and Yankees game was televised, along with any game Matazuka was pitching, but I have to question what kind of rights are being paid for these games anyway, since they are on in the morning while ,ost people are at, or on their way to work.
re 89: How do you propose the Padres make money in Mexico then if it can’t be additional attendance or tv revenue?
A couple of million bucks is a ton of jerseys to sell!
Mark
91: And thus I wrote “TV revenue outside the US and Canada goes through MLB.” MLB’s deal with Japan is worth 275 million. Seattle also gets money directly from Japanese companies who advertise at Safeco.
92: I didn’t say it couldn’t be additional attendance. Seattle gets a sizable number of Japanese tourists who fly across the North Pacific. That’s a more drastic commitment than crossing the border. It doesn’t have to be “Let’s catch a game tonight.” It could be “Let’s visit our cousins in San Diego this vacation and catch a Padre series while we’re there.” That, some greater radio penetration, more merchandising, deeper relationships with Mexican League teams, pretty soon you’ve pocketed an extra couple million per.