Wednesday Open Thread (1 Aug 07)

Wed, Aug 1, 2007Ballhype: hype it up!
by Geoff Young

Top 10 Second Basemen in Padres History

This is a work-in-progress:

  1. Mark Loretta
  2. Roberto Alomar
  3. Quilvio Veras
  4. Bip Roberts
  5. Tim Flannery
  6. Alan Wiggins
  7. Jody Reed
  8. Juan Bonilla
  9. Tito Fuentes
  10. Josh Barfield

I’m very confident about those first three, but 4-9 are a jumbled mess. Others you could make a case for include Dave Campbell, Derrel Thomas, Tim Teufel, Bret Boone, Damian Jackson, and Ramon Vazquez…

Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.

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58 Responses to “Wednesday Open Thread (1 Aug 07)”

  1. Steve C Says:

    Good article on how waiver trades work:

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb.....ateChanged

    So Cheo is the first to get cut, there will be two more before 7:05 today.

    Current score: 0
  2. Peter Friberg Says:

    Padres Prospect Report

    You will not see me complaining about the Padres recent moves. The Padres got three pitching prospects (including a top 100 guy; Inman) when they gave up Linebrink. Conversely, with all their moves they didn’t give up a single guy likely to be in the Padres top 15…

    Tuesday, July 31, 2007

    AAA

    Yordany Ramirez: 5 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 1 RBI; 2B, SO

    AA

    Matt Antonelli: 4 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; HR, SO – G1
    Matt Antonelli: 3 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2B, BB, - G2
    Chase Headley: 4 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 0 RBI; 2B
    Nick Hundley: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; HR,

    High-A

    No significant performances…

    Low-A

    No significant performances…

    Short Season-A

    Jeremy McBryde: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR

    Rookie

    Brad Chalk: 3 AB, 3 R, 1 H, 2 RBI; 2B, BB, SB
    Felix Carrasco: 3 AB, 2 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB, SO
    Drew Cumberland: 2 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; SO

    Commentary:

    Nothing to say, up too late…

    Current score: 0
  3. Friar Phil Says:

    Stauffer will be sent down. And probably either Hampson or Hatcher.
    Though he hasn’t been hitting a lick, I would rather they had kept Cheo jr and sent down Hairston if possible. Does team consistency and chemistry count for nothing?

    Second baseman: Wiggins ‘84 season was a wonderful thing to watch. Fernando Gonzalez might measure up to some of those candidates.

    Current score: 0
  4. Phantom Says:

    Anyone else see mervs comments in the ut this morning about khalil and nog? He basically says that nobody on the team takes their offensive woes harder than khalil (and that he puts a lot of pressure on himself) and that marcus was trying to hard to make the team pick up his option for next year. Its a good read. Im in the middle of pennsylvania on my cell right now so no link, but it is at the signonsandiego site

    Current score: 0
  5. Tom Waits Says:

    Pretty shocking that they’d cut Cruz over Hairston. I guess Hairston can play 2b if nobody’s going to hit the ball at him.

    They’ve made several low-risk, high-reward trades the last six weeks. And baseball being baseball, it may not get them to the playoffs. But they’re still good decisions.

    Current score: 0
  6. St. Oops Says:

    4: It’s good to hear that Khalil cares. Hopefully both him and NOG will pick up a little with a change of coaching scenery, as most of the team did for a while when Mags was replaced with Merv.

    SDSU: Replying to your inquiry yesterday, I know there have been people in the past to get MLB or WCSN (which is operated by MLB) tv to work on Macs. Maybe you can get some help somewhere, because I love the MLB.tv service myself.

    I’m moving today as well, so I wish you luck with that. It’s a pain in the neck no? I’m moving out of my place here in Germany and then traveling around Europe for a couple weeks so I’ll only get sporadic updates on the team until Aug 18th when I’ll be in San Diego (shortly!) for a game. I expect this team to be sitting on top of the division by then. Please?

    Current score: 0
  7. Joe Carter, MVP Says:

    Any guesses about which pitchers will be headed for Portland (or just plain old cut) today? Stauffer is a logical candidate, but with CY missing at least one more start, the Pads will need someone for that slot, unless days off will allow them to skip a spot in the rotation.

    Germano also may be on the bubble. I know he has that second-time-around-the-league problem, but he’s also been hurt as much as any of the starters by lack of run support. In his last 10 starts, SD hitters have produced 12 runs while he’s in the game. He’s been a serviceable 5th starter, but with Hensley seemingly back in a groove, Germano may be the odd man out.

    Current score: 0
  8. Steve C Says:

    Hey peter, do you think the Padres are going to wait until the beginning of next season to move all the top guys up to AAA or do you think (if they don’t make the big club) that they will stay on AA because there is better pitching overall in the Tx league than the PCL?

    Current score: 0
  9. Steve C Says:

    Re: 7 Stauffer will probably be sent down in favor of Ledezma, and Germano when CY returns unless wells has a blow out.

    I would also imagine that Hampson will be sent down, before last night I would say its a toss up between him and Hensley but I think Hensley earned a spot last night.

    Wohoo no more 13 pitchers, now if we can only convince KT and Bud to only carry 11 the pads may have a decent bench!

    Current score: 0
  10. Christopher Keach Says:

    Mark Loretta over Robbie Alomar, Geoff?! I assume you’re talking only about the time they spent with the Padres, then.

    Current score: 0
  11. Steve C Says:

    Re: 10 yeah im sure he is only looking at time with the Pads, otherwise Boone would be in the top 3 as well.

    Current score: 0
  12. PM Says:

    Nice that the Merv gives a little insight into what is happening in the heads of Khalil and NOG. But if they want to me better hitters, look at MB. He chokes up a bit, has an active bat and a quick swing. He fouls off close pitches, runs counts, has a good eye as well. Bottom line, he hits the way he is pitched to. When I see little guys holding the very end of the bat as Khalil and NOG do, you have to wonder. Are they in love with the HR or are they trying to have a quality AB. Agon is another guy holding the very end of the bat making big long swings. These guys are mistake hitters. They wait for a mistake in a certain zone and hit it. MB hits where he is pitched. Hopefully, Wally can change this.

    Current score: 0
  13. Peter Friberg a.k.a. Less Nessman Says:

    Steve, yes, I think the Padres will wait until the season. Every report I’ve heard is that the AAA clubhouse is very down and they do not want to expose Headley to that negativity…

    Current score: 0
  14. Steve C Says:

    RE: 13 I know they will not send them up this year but will they even do it next year? I would think there is better talent in the Tx league than the PCL at this point.

    Current score: 0
  15. Didi Says:

    10: I think so. The list are only based on their careers with the Padres.

    9: Ledezma to start? Why not send him down instead to get some correction work. Let Hampson and Hensley up here. Hampson has proven he’s good in long reliefs and so far Hensley as well. The Padres are going to need them with Wells, Germano and Maddux pitching, not to mention Stauffer.

    Current score: 0
  16. Steve C Says:

    RE: 12 I could see how Greenie would want to not choke up and take big swings because he has a ton of raw power, he just need to be able to pick up the outside slider a little better.

    Nog on the other hand should choke up as much as possible and slap balls all over the feild, the sooner he realizes that he is not a power hitter and never will have more than 10 HR’s in a season again the better off he will be.

    Current score: 0
  17. PM Says:

    The other thing about our current hitting funk is its hard to know if Webb was poitching lights out last night, in which case you chulk up the lose to pitching, or did the Padres continue to be a lousy hitting team. Probably a little of both, although MB had a coupla nice ropes.

    Current score: 0
  18. Ben B. Says:

    17: I was actually kind of encouraged about the hitting in the game last night, I guess mainly because I’m chalking it up to Webb being on his game. They worked the count well, making Webb throw 111 pitches in 7 innings despite only giving up 3 hits and 2 walks. They “only” struck out 7 times (I say only because usually with an elevated pitch count like that you’ll have more strikeouts, and in previous games against Webb he struck more than one per inning.) And they didn’t just hit grounders, with half of Webb’s outs in play coming on fly balls.

    Current score: 0
  19. Mark Ase Says:

    I think this deadline makes me wish the organization would try a different approach to building a team. With an improved minor league system providing cheap talent, I think it is well past time to try and get a couple of stars on the roster. Having guys like Kouz, Antonelli, Headley, Hundley etc,etc making the min the organization has the payroll flexibility to do so.

    They aren’t going to be able to have a 50M payroll for long without some major complaints.

    I have a ton of respect for what the Braves did at the deadline.

    Current score: 0
  20. Tom Waits Says:

    19: I largely agree. It’s hard enough to compete in the majors without being paralyzed by fear that you’ll repeat the Randy Myers or Brian Giles trades, and the OG trade really wasn’t bad anyway.

    There seemed to be no good SP on the market, and maybe Glaus wasn’t available at all, since the Blue Jays have to feel like they might be able to sneak into the WC next year. But you’re not going to really improve a pretty good team by adding a couple of okay players, no matter how cheap you get them. The Padres could go 37-20 the next two months, 93 wins, and that might get it done. But with a pitching staff of Peavy and 4 league-average arms (being generous to Germano and whoever fills CY’s spot), that’s going to be hard to do.

    Did we even pursue Dotel? Dayton Moore may have been fixated on Davies, but we have some arms that are at least comparable.

    Current score: 0
  21. Steve C Says:

    by doing a quick run of the 08 numbers the Pads will spend between 54 mil (worst cast) and 70.5 (best case) the sad thing is that both teams look to have the same talent level the only major diff is if they spend money to get a veteran CF (I still only assumed $10mil/year) or if they just pull up Yordany Ramirez.

    Current score: 0
  22. Ben B. Says:

    19: There was no Mark Teixeira available for the Padres to fix their biggest holes (second base, starting pitching). Plus, the Braves roster is built to win now, with Chipper Jones and John Smoltz aging fast and Andruw Jones gone after this season. The stars on this Padre team are young (Peavy and Young, basically), and the old aging guys are fairly easily replaceable. They have time to work in the young prospects before the window closes on those guys.

    Current score: 0
  23. Steve C Says:

    Re: 22 Hoffy = not easy to replace

    Current score: 0
  24. Ben B. Says:

    According to gaslampball, Blum is platooning at second the rest of the year. Yikes. Were there any guys available at second base that could hit lefty? Luis Castillo is a switch-hitter. That would have been nice.

    Current score: 0
  25. Ben B. Says:

    Upon further inspection, for his career Luis Castillo has zero power batting left-handed. So he’s definitely not the answer in a platoon, but as a full-time starter he probably would have been better than a NOG-Blum platoon. The choices at second are all very uninspiring. Let’s just go beat up the Phillies and take Utley.

    Current score: 0
  26. Michael Says:

    How far away do you guys think Matt Antonelli is? Is he someone who could be a late August callup, or would the Padres not risk starting his service time?

    Also, as far as the AAA situation is concerned, how do the Beavers/Padres fix it? I know the Padres like to keep the group of guys together, so maybe in 2008 we could see Antonelli, Headley, Hundley, etc. in Portland? I don’t like the idea that the Padres’ top hitting prospects don’t get a chance to test their skills against AAA pitching.

    Current score: 0
  27. Steve C Says:

    Re: 26 I dont think Antonelli will be up in sept, there is really no reason at this point amd im sure Moores will not want to pay him major leauge pay for a month, he may get a shot to hang out with the big club in ST though.

    I think we will see Robles, Sledge, Laforest, P-mac, Hillenbrand, Thompson, Hampson, Startup, Stansberry, and possibly ketchner called up sept 1st.

    If they do move Antonelli and Headly up to PDX next year they will probably gut the whole team and move up all of thier top guys minus Freese and Blanks.

    The lineup could look like this
    Antonelli 2B
    Vinable RF
    Headly 3B
    Bonvechio 1B
    Hundley C
    Huffman LF
    Ramerez CF
    Chang SS

    Carillo
    Leblanc
    Geer
    Ramos
    Ayala

    Current score: 0
  28. The Fathers Says:

    re 19: The Padres don’t have a 50 million payroll. If you include everything that is traditionally considered part of payroll, and that definitely includes more than just the base salaries of the season-starting 25 man roster, it is probably already at 65 million this year, and could approach or exceed 70 million when all is said and done. It would be nice, however, if the team was getting a return on some of the money that they were spending.

    Current score: 0
  29. Steve C Says:

    Re: 28 that has always been the debate on this board as well as throughout all of baseball as to what is considered payroll, what is what is considered draft budget, what is considered… basically a team can fudge the numbers to show what ever they want and until someone on the board starts to work for the padres payroll department we will have no idea.

    Current score: 0
  30. Peter Friberg Says:

    “…if the team was getting a return on some of the money that they were spending.”

    The Padres are 24-6th in spending, but their 56-49 record is 11th best in baseball (5th in the NL).

    I wasn’t a math major, but I think that’s a good return on investment…

    Current score: 0
  31. Tom Waits Says:

    28, 29: We were at 58 million to start the season. That’s using the same numbers for every team, so whatever isn’t counted there for us isn’t being counted for anyone else.

    We’re only paying a 1.6 for Bradley and Barrett combined. We’re only paying for 2 months of Ensberg and Mackowiak, which will be around 2.3 million combined. That takes us to 62.

    Wells has started to hit his escalators, probably to the tune of 1.5-2 million. So TF’s estimate of 65 isn’t far off. If Wells keeps pitching we’ll end up between 66-68.

    Current score: 0
  32. KRS1 Says:

    31.

    I can’t remember where but I read this morning that Houston is paying all of Ensberg’s contract this year and that he has 1 year of arbitration left before he’s a FA.

    Current score: 0
  33. KRS1 Says:

    32.

    Here is the link that says Houston is picking up the full tab for Ensberg. Not that it’s a huge chunk of money but it probably would have been 1.7 or 1.8 mil we would have added in payroll.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com.....64593.html

    Current score: 0
  34. Tom Waits Says:

    31, 33: I heard that, too, but Cots isn’t reporting it. Not yet, anyway.

    http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....adres.html

    Current score: 0
  35. Steve C Says:

    Sledge was held out of the PDX lineup last night again, could he be on his way up to the big club?

    Current score: 0
  36. Tom Waits Says:

    35: Or because they might cut him, which you can’t do to a guy on the DL.

    Current score: 0
  37. Steve C Says:

    why cut him why not just keep him in AAA incase someone gets hurt?

    Current score: 0
  38. Tom Waits Says:

    37: 40 man roster spots. I don’t know if we need one, but that’d be a possible explanation.

    Or he’s banged up.

    Current score: 0
  39. DCPADRE Says:

    So, apparently Blum told XX that he got word he’d be platooning for the rest of year at 2B. I’m not a fan of this. Blum is OK but not a starter on (what I used to think was a) World Series caliber team.

    I say we let Marcus get his ABs and figure it out. We don’t make a deep playoff run (or maybe even the playoffs) with Geoff Blum starting 4 times a week. Let him start once or twice at a few different IF positions, and let him hit clutch extra-inning game winning homers.

    We also are going nowhere if Khalil/Kouz can’t find it in themselves to go on a tear and start hitting clutch bombs.

    Someone on this team needs to step up and start hitting some 3 run shots - anyone besides MB????

    Current score: 0
  40. Malcolm Says:

    34.Also Linebrink’s 1/2 $1.75MM is gone. I guess Branyon and Cruz $ were guaranteed?

    Current score: 0
  41. KRS1 Says:

    41.

    Brocail is guaranteed also. I think it’s only like $800,000 which isn’t horrible but it still SUCKS!!!

    Current score: 0
  42. KRS1 Says:

    opps i meant 40

    Current score: 0
  43. Michael Says:

    I’m fine with Blum platooning if he keeps performing. If he stops performing, he needs to not take it personally if they give his at-bats to someone else.

    Current score: 0
  44. Tom Waits Says:

    40: Branyon, Cruz, Walker (paying him 900K not to be helping us win the West), and Strickland all had some guaranteed money. That was all figured into the opening day payroll, though.

    Current score: 0
  45. The Fathers Says:

    Re 29 and 31: Any money that you owe to a major league player past or present is traditionally counted as major league payroll, and there is no other place to logically put it and make sense of it. This includes buyouts of options; it includes the deferred $100,000 per year that the Padres are still paying Tony Gwynn - but that ends either this year or next year. It includes the guaranteed salaries of released players, unless another team picks up their salary. This year, it includes incentives like Wells has, but he is not the only one on the team who has them. It also includes rare things like this year - the Padres could and should lose a grievance arbitration case to Todd Walker over his arbitration award and subsequent release. That would cost them two plus million; can’t count it yet since they haven’t lost it.

    One other thing to keep in mind is that most teams do not structure contracts where the bulk of a player’s salary, such as Wells, is in the form in incentives, as frequently as the Padres do. Those other teams’ season end payroll numbers are usually only affected by DL time and players added or subtracted by trade or otherwise.

    Under the circumstances of the Padres, the $58 million figure is bogus, and serves no purpose other than to bash them out of context since some previous years’ initial payrolls were higher. The real numbers do not make them big spenders by any means, but it should provide a better perspective.

    Current score: 0
  46. Tom Waits Says:

    45: The Padres did not buy out anyone’s option for 2007. If they did, it’s nowhere I can find it. It doesn’t make sense to count any options they might have to buy out for the 2008 season against the 2007 payroll.

    Wells is the only player with significant incentives. NOG can make a million more, but if they’re performance-based, he’s not going to get there. Maddux can earn a little more, but he’s not winning the Cy Young or the MVP, which are 2 of his biggest payouts (and they’re only 100K). If he received every incentive he could still get, he’d make an extra 250K.

    The 58 million reported by Cots accurately reflects what the Padres were absolutely obligated to pay as of opening day, not what they might have to pay. It did include salaries for players who have since been released. If Wells had broken his leg on opening day, he wouldn’t make a dime of his incentives, but he would get his base salary.

    A lot of teams have deferred payroll. Some teams have a lot more than a measly 100K of it. A lot of teams also have players with incentive clauses (not nearly as rare as you make them out to be) and have added payroll through trades. We’re not the Lone Rangers. So if you want to say the Padres opening day payroll was “really” 60M or thereabouts, you also have to bump the payroll of many other teams up a few notches, and you have to add a similar amount to the Padre opening day payroll of 2005-2006.

    I don’t think money held up any trades yesterday. The farm still isn’t deep and there weren’t great fits for us.

    Current score: 0
  47. Joe Carter, MVP Says:

    Anyone else see that Milwaukee papers are reporting that Scott Linebrink was placed on the “bereavement list” today after his wife had their baby by C-section on Tuesday?

    Haven’t heard any further details, but I’m sure all Padres fans wish the Linebrinks well.

    Current score: 0
  48. Didi Says:

    47: I hope Linebrink and his family are OK.

    Current score: 0
  49. Tom Waits Says:

    47, 48: The bereavement list is an easy way to move a player off the 25 man roster without losing him for 15 days. It’s been used for non-scary/sad situations before. Haven’t heard anything about problems with the Linebrinks.

    Hoffman sounds like he needs to go on the bereavement list.

    Current score: 0
  50. The Fathers Says:

    I am just interested in accuracy here TW, so if your claims regarding other teams are correct, it might help if you calculated the initial versus total player payroll of comparable teams like the Rockies and the Diamondbacks, and show them to us. Before seeing them, my best guess is that the delta between initial and final payroll will be much bigger for the Padres than those teams. I don’t recall the Dodgers adding anything significant this year, except DL callups, and the Giants, if anything, dumped salary when they traded Morris, right?

    On to the rest, the initial salary figures reported to AP by MLB for the Padres was 58,110,567 or 58,235,567. These numbers you can find at USA Today’s salary database or links to the AP article. If you go to the Padres 2007 figures on the USA Today site, you will not see Todd Walker listed. He was released before the 25 man roster was set. Also, the AP report says it is payroll figures are from the Opening Day roster, and Todd Walker obviously wasn’t on it. I will stand by my view that Walker’s release money was not counted in the initial published figures.

    As far as option buyouts go, there were several - Mike Piazza, Ryan Klesko, and Rudy Seanez. Two players were paid after being released before the season, the aforementioned Walker and the much less remembered Scott Strickland. Tony Gwynn actually got his lump sum of 600k this year.

    Hope this clears some things up.

    Current score: 0
  51. dabeef Says:

    Who will be September call ups?

    Current score: 0
  52. Tom Waits Says:

    50: I’m not claiming anything in regard to initial vs final payrolls. I’m only talking opening day versus opening day. There was not a massive, hidden bulge of payroll stuck underneath the Padres shirts. Whatever bulge there was is pretty comparable to other teams. The 750K buyout for Piazza (and 500K for Klesko) are garden-variety; Cruz had a 300K buyout paid by the Dodgers. B Molina was paid 500K to go away by the Blue Jays. And so on and so forth.

    Same thing with deferred payroll. The Dbacks, for example, have gigantic deferred player payouts. Huge. Tony Gwynn’s 600K, which we’ve probably been carrying in a tax-friendly form since he retired, is peanuts compared to what Arizona owes people.

    Adding up the salaries of the players who were on the opening day roster, I get around 53.5 million. Cots includes pro-rated signing bonuses. That includes players who aren’t on the team now but were on opening day. It seems quite possible that Walker’s 900K buyout is in there, but even if it’s not, it’s not a big sum. And again, you can’t count it as a guarantee. If it was, why fight the case?

    Just to be clear, I’m not the one claiming we had a 50M payroll. It was close to 58 million on opening day, and if it was more because of buyouts, it’s not unlike the rise of many other teams. It’s gone up since then, which nobody disputes. But the Padres did not have this extraordinary lump of payroll-like obligations that nobody else did.

    Current score: 0
  53. balla Says:

    I’m also fine with Blum platooning, seeing as Marcus is off the roids and therefore unable to produce

    Current score: 0
  54. The Fathers Says:

    52: I respect your opinion, TW, now I would like to see if it can be substantiated with a decent sample. Do a similar analysis for comparable payroll teams, not just the Diamondbacks.

    The Padres’ bulge is substantial. It can go anywhere from $10-15 million. Do other comparable teams have similar bulges? I would imagine you are right for a team like the Diamondbacks now that I think about it - Schilling/Johnson etc deferred money, but it still would be interesting to see the numbers.

    Current score: 0
  55. Steve C Says:

    XX reporting padres send down Thatcher and Stauffer

    Current score: 0
  56. Tom Waits Says:

    54: What bulge are you talking about? I’ve stated multiple times that I’m not comparing their opening day (reported) vs their current payroll. They’ve added to their opening day payroll more than anyone in the division. Are you claiming that their actual opening day payroll was 10-15 million more than anyone else says it was? Because that’s the claim that would need substantiation. You can count all the buyouts, incentives, and deferred payments you want, it’s not 10M dollar. Unless you’re using Padre Draft Budget Math.

    Their payroll at the end of the season is likely to be around 68 million. Stipulated. Done. Not what I was talking about it. On opening day they were not carrying this massive load beyond the 58M reported in multiple places. The extra money they were legally obligated to pay beyond that 58M was in line with what a lot of clubs pay nearly every year.

    Current score: 0
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    Current score: 0
  58. xztheericzx Says:

    i’m eric. joining a couple boards and looking
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    too distracted!

    eric

    Current score: 0

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