Who Are the Padres’ Marquee Players?
Tue, Jul 10, 2007
by Geoff Young
One factor in determining a player’s worth is his “marquee value.” On page 95 of his book Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball
Gennaro identifies four components in determining a player’s marquee value:
- Personal qualities
- Positive image
- Recognizability
- Accessibility
- Articulateness
- Performance Factor
- Continuity Factor
- Team Brand Value
Each of these is quantifiable, although it appears to be somewhat subjective in places. Which current Padres have the greatest marquee value? Without getting into the heavy math, here’s my stab:
A case could be advanced for Brian Giles, too, but I suspect his skills have slipped to the point that they no longer offset his relative lack of visibility. Like I said, there appears to be a degree of subjectivity involved here; calculate at your own risk. I’ll note that the above meshes pretty well with my intuition, for whatever that may be worth.
Practical application? Well, marquee value could come into play when deciding whether to re-sign or pursue a free agent. Incidentally, if you find this sort of discussion interesting, you might also check out the Baseball Economics Roundtable from May 2007 over at Biz of Baseball…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 10, 2007 at 8:56 am
I think your list is pretty good, and at times I think you could flip flop 3 and 4. Also, there are times when Jake and CY lead this team, and there are others when it’s Trevor. One of the thins I love about the Padres is that we do not have a definitive “superstar”. Rather, we have a bunch of talented guys that work well together and that seem to love to play the game.
July 10, 2007 at 8:57 am
Did anyone with ESPN Insider read the Kevin Cameron Q & A? I don’t have the Insider, but I was intrigued to see that Cameron is off to the best start EVER by a pitcher after 29 innings with his 0.31 ERA. So, Geoff’s right, we’ve got to get him onto the field a little more.
July 10, 2007 at 9:01 am
Antonelli with 14 HR’s and a grand slam yesterday. Man that Elsinore team is stacked! Kyle Blanks from what it looks like might be special. I am anxious to see what kind of a year he has in 2008 in San Antonio. Our minor league system is definitely headed up lets hope some of these guys translate to the bigs!
July 10, 2007 at 9:04 am
Classy thank you by Chris Young on the back of the UT sports page today. It looks like he took out a half page add to just say thanks. With all the a-holes floating around pro-sports these days it’s nice to know that such a good and class guy is right here playing for us and appreciates our support. Chris Young seems like an awesome dude!
July 10, 2007 at 9:26 am
Re: 2 I have it and read it, nothing that ground breaking just kind of a fluff job, “do you like pitching with trevor? do you talk to Maddux? whats the difference between the minors and the pros?” stuff like that.
July 10, 2007 at 9:50 am
I think the club will want to see Adrián González take that #3 spot and Young-Greene down there because González’s value is great because he is, in that top 5 or 6, that are from the San Diego area and I do think that even with his slump he’ll rebound well this season and I think you could be looking at a .300-20+-90 hitter which when you play half your games in PETCO is pretty good. (end of run-on sentence)
July 10, 2007 at 10:13 am
Brian Giles still has the best OBP of any Padres regular by 30 points. I think it’s safe to say that he’s still a good player, even if he’s just a doubles and singles hitter these days.
July 10, 2007 at 10:38 am
So with the new rumors of Ichiro maybe close to signing an extention who is playing Center Field for us next year? I have a sneaking suspision that it’s going to be Eric Byrnes. I like the reports that KT was asking about Felix Pie because it shows he is looking for a possible younger long term potential stud but something tells me it will be someone like Byrnes.
July 10, 2007 at 10:40 am
7: I wish OG would hit more doubles than singles, though. However, as long as he gets on base, the Padres should score more runs with NOG being moved down from his current #2 spot.
July 10, 2007 at 10:42 am
8: Agreed. I too think that Byrnes will be the Pads’ prime target for next year. He’s got a decent arm and he’s having a solid year this year.
July 10, 2007 at 11:26 am
8: Byrnes is still young, he is a solid player and a good clubhouse guy. Depending on how Cam finishes the season, they still may pick up his option. He has one right?
July 10, 2007 at 11:34 am
Re: 11 no CAmmy is a FA at the end of the year, his option was for 07.
July 10, 2007 at 11:49 am
9 … I don’t think you said what you meant, Didi … does *anyone* hit more doubles than singles? If so, let’s get *that* guy
July 10, 2007 at 12:01 pm
I think that is a pretty good list, but I’ll say this after my wife having worked in south bay the past 2 years….. Adrian should be at least #3 on that list, if not ahead of Peavy at #2.
The draw of a local kid(especially of latino heritage, don’t kill me for saying it, but it does matter to some people) who was playing at an all star level(damn you June/July!) is very, very high.
Oh and about CF next year…if I had to bet I’d put $20 on Andruw Jones. A couple years ago at the BP pizza feed KT included Jones in his perfect Petco outfield, with the expense being lower because of a down year(and over-ratedness reported by ESPN) I can actually see it happening.
July 10, 2007 at 12:09 pm
13. Greene has more 2B+3B+HR than singles. (by 2)
July 10, 2007 at 12:14 pm
I’d like to get Felix Pie on the Padres just because I already have a nickname for him: Happy Foot.
Regarding the Padres’ marquee names, based on my impression of fan reactions at Petco:
1. Trevor
2. nobody
3. really
4. comes
5. close
6. Khalil
7. Brian Giles
8. Adrian/Cameron/Jenga (Jenga seems to be working his way up the list based on his first weekend)
July 10, 2007 at 12:47 pm
re: 16 No Peavy?
July 10, 2007 at 1:10 pm
16: We really need to start holding numbers 2-5 accountable for their production on the field if they’re going to be representing our franchise like that. I blame nobody for the slump the offense has been in.
July 10, 2007 at 1:26 pm
As I mentioned yesterday, it appears that Baseball Prospectus is having a “free week” … here’s an article you’ll enjoy if you follow the farm systems …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6433
… it’s an update (risers and fallers) on all the NL teams.
July 10, 2007 at 1:43 pm
17: All 4 games I’ve been to this year have been started by Wells, so I can’t say how general fans react to Peavy. Knowledgeable folks respect and appreciate Peavy, but I’m not sure how visible a once-every-5-games pitcher is to the general public. Is it to a point where people specifically choose to attend games Peavy pitches?
July 10, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Re: 20 it has been that way for 3 or 4 seasons now
July 10, 2007 at 2:02 pm
Here’s another interesing article at BP …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6439
Free Talent All-Stars … mentions guys like Germano and Bell … and Cust
July 10, 2007 at 2:05 pm
14: Mark, I don’t know if A. Jones is on his way here, although with his #’s in PetCo, I wouldn’t be averse to it. I think that despite the down year he’s going to be a 100 million dollar signing for someone next year. Also, I don’t know how long that Jones is going to stay in CF. Most metrics now have him as below average and some have him as the worst CF in the majors. I think he’d make an outstanding RF…
July 10, 2007 at 2:15 pm
23.
Where might I find these metrics you speak of? I agree that he is no longer the “best” center fielder in the game but I think you are severely stretching it. The reads and the jumps he got on the ball this past weekend put Mike Cameron to shame in his home park. Jones is still a great CF’r IMO. You are right thought I do think he will wind up being a $100 mil. player.
July 10, 2007 at 2:22 pm
1090 news update reports Matt Bush has a bad shoulder and has been “put on the shelf” “hopefully to return later this year”.
July 10, 2007 at 2:27 pm
14: I sincerely hope you’re wrong. Our offense has enough guys that K on a regular basis, and just because Jones has played well in twenty-something ABs at Petco, doesn’t mean he’d be able to stretch that out over an entire season.
Also, I think A. Jones is a huge dick. I was sitting in left-center Sunday nite and he seriously whined at Harris for not covering Cameron’s RBI double (even though the ball was much closer to Andruw). We don’t need that kind of stupidity on the Padres.
July 10, 2007 at 2:28 pm
25 … someone posted this UT link about Batt Mush here 2 days ago …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/....._down.html
Madfriars talked to him recently and added this …
He was shut down due to shoulder soreness after his most recent outing, a precaution for a player who is not used to the grind of throwing two to three times a week.
Bush, health pending, is expected to land in the Midwest League with the Fort Wayne Wizards in the next few weeks – a place that he failed miserably as a hitter.
July 10, 2007 at 2:29 pm
Re: 26 Jones has 60 PA’s at petco
July 10, 2007 at 2:37 pm
28: Which is still a really small sample.
July 10, 2007 at 3:15 pm
24: Glad to see someone mention the jumps Cameron isn’t getting on the ball this year. I’m no expert, but there are a lot of hits dropping in front of him that I expected to be caught off the bat. He isn’t playing like a free-agent-to-be. Conversely, to my eye Brian Giles gets a great jump on almost anything hit his way.
July 10, 2007 at 3:40 pm
30.
Cameron in my eyes has digressed seriously! He isn’t seeing the ball like he has in the past and I have noticed a few times where he had a player rounding 3rd heading home with a clear chance to throw him out and has either misplayed the hop or had trouble getting the ball out of his glove. I don’t want to bag on Cammy because I still would rather have him out there than a lot of other guys currently roaming mlb center fields but after his play last year and in the past it’s hard to not point out that he isn’t the same this year.
July 10, 2007 at 4:04 pm
20: As much as I agree with the list that GY put up, I personally think Peavy will be the ace of this franchise to the level of a Pedro Martinez or Nolan Ryan in their primes.
I’m also hoping that Adrian and Kouzmanoff turn into the second coming of the Bash Brothers by next season.
July 10, 2007 at 4:17 pm
20 … I did (choose to go to a game because Peavy is pitching), just last week … which means I certainly agree with #32a … and I agree with #32b also …
re: Cameron’s play in OF … I don’t get to watch many games, but did last week … and I noticed that Cameron wasn’t the only OF’er having trouble seeing flyballs @ Petco … Cruz is the only specific one I remember now … but it surprised me that others looked like what I’ve been reading attributed to Cameron … any chance it’s park-related?
July 10, 2007 at 4:23 pm
Has this been posted here before and I just missed it?
Shawn Estes in pitching for the AZL Padres!
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb
… and, as usual, Yefri (the Great) had another great day! (along wiht a coupla college kids who prolly shouldn’t be playing at that level???)
July 10, 2007 at 4:58 pm
Peter-
Can you help me out on the metrics. I think that I found them on Hardball Times, but I’m having trouble locating them again.
Here’s one from baseballthinkfactory: http://www.baseballthinkfactor.....0_innings/
but it’s not the one that I was referring to. Jones is ranked 2nd to last in the NL according to those metrics
July 10, 2007 at 5:12 pm
Padres are mentioned as being “interested” in playing some “regular season” games in Japan next year …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
… hmmm … there are pro’s and con’s … for now, I’m not up for this. Benefits are marketing of a Padres souvy’s and perhaps some interest which might lead to the Padres being in a good position to sign a player from Japan (and they do have a CF’er coming over next year) …
July 10, 2007 at 5:14 pm
13: Yeah, let’s get that guy.
I meant to say I wish OG would have more XBH and since he’s not going to hit more HRs or fast enough for 3Bs, more 2Bs would be great. But you already know that, right?
I’m thinking depending on how Jenga is doing the rest of the year, I can see the Padres signing him for a couple of years to man CF next season.
July 10, 2007 at 5:16 pm
36: It may be interesting except for the travelling across the Pacific thing. Then, again, the Padres did have games in Mexico and Hawaii, right? So, if the timing is right (around ASB or so) it could work great.
July 10, 2007 at 5:32 pm
38 … the talk is doing the games in Japan in “spring” (ie. first games of the regular season, is how I’m interp’ing it) …
Anyone watching the ASG? How close to starting are they?
July 10, 2007 at 5:40 pm
AL lineup is stronger/deeper … but the best hitter in the game today is on the NL’s bench (so I’m hoping he gets in the game early and gets a couple of key ABs late in the game) … my prediction: NL 8-7 winners.
July 10, 2007 at 5:46 pm
38: Just say no to crazy intercontinental road trips! The Padres are not a traveling circus, they’re a competitive baseball team whose season should not be disrupted in favor of marketing. (Unless they can get the “next Ichiro” as a result. In that case, get on a plane right now and start selling stadium advertising to Nintendo!)
40: AL line-up is stacked, except of course for the #9 spot. Who else is in favor of using a DH in the All-Star Game every year?
July 10, 2007 at 5:50 pm
35: I’m not sure exactly what you’re looking for, but the hardball times now has revised zone rating for 2007. Now, they treat balls in zone and balls out of zone separately. In 07, Jones has converted 192 of 201 balls in his zone into outs. That’s the best in the game amongst center fielders. He also has 51 out of zone outs, which looks to be well above average as well. You could combine that stuff together and get a quick runs above average metric, but I haven’t done that. Clearly, though, Jones is well above average by ZR this year.
You can find that stuff here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats
Then select fielding and sort and filter the stuff how you’d like. I would have done that, but the link was really, really long.
By MGL’s UZR (which is of course much more complicated than basic ZR), Jones has been average from 03-07. I don’t think you can really find updatded UZR’s or Dewan’s stuff, though. You can find UZR here…
http://www.insidethebook.com/e.....lete_list/
Anyway, I have no clue if that’s what you’re looking for…
July 10, 2007 at 5:50 pm
41 … I am a *huge* hater of the DH … and the thing I hate most about it is that the one time that it would be a *great* thing to do is in the ASG and they don’t do it!!!!!?????? In other words, CK, I’m with you!
July 10, 2007 at 5:52 pm
42 … re: “really, really long” URLs … check out tinyurl.com …
July 10, 2007 at 5:55 pm
Ichiro! Gwynn’s Peavy to start the game …
July 10, 2007 at 5:56 pm
Ouch, I just noticed that the NL has 5 1B-men on the bench (Pujols, Lee, Berkman, Howard, Young) … ouch, that doesn’t bode well for Pujols getting very many ABs …
July 10, 2007 at 5:58 pm
Jeter appears to be the AL’s weak link … cool that they have him batting #2 …
July 10, 2007 at 6:01 pm
Commenter at cbssportsline.com says …
NL manager Tony LaRussa said that Peavy will only go one inning, as fans in San Diego and even those who play fantasy baseball cannot be too unhappy with that fact.
… yup, I’m happy with that! Get Penny in there as soon as possible …
Somebody tell me about Fielder’s error?
July 10, 2007 at 6:13 pm
48: Broken bat ground ball to Utley. Fielder lolly-gagged to the bag (since Ortiz wasn’t running). Utley threw it a shade low and Fielder just flat out missed it. Martin backing up the play got the ball.
July 10, 2007 at 6:20 pm
44: Thanks. I didn’t know it was that easy!
Here’s the centerfield defensive ratings from HBT for anyone that’s still interested:
http://tinyurl.com/yu9r4j
July 10, 2007 at 6:23 pm
Here’s what a guy at CBS says about upcoming pitchers …
Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels warms in the bullpen for the NL All-Stars. Josh Beckett is loosening in the AL pen, as he’ll spell Haren and work two innings when he comes on.
July 10, 2007 at 6:31 pm
Rats … using Cabrera as a PH’er means only 1 AB … eh, he’s not at his best right now (or at least he sure didn’t look very good in his ABs vs Padres last week), so perhaps limiting him to 1 AB is OK … in general, however, this guy is the 2nd best hitter in the NL and so his ABs in this ASG should be maximized …
July 10, 2007 at 6:34 pm
52 … ya, Miguel has a bum shoulder …
http://www.miamiherald.com/588/story/165617.html
… which means he prolly shouldn’t have even had that 1 AB … but at least it’s out of the way now …
July 10, 2007 at 6:35 pm
Hmmm, just noticed that Loretta and Dye are both on the AL team …
July 10, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Ichiro! Gwynn’s again!
July 10, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Somehow David Wells is being quoted as saying he wants to play next year (if he’s healthy) …
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7004562
… whatever …
July 10, 2007 at 6:57 pm
Cool … NL survives the inning with its weak link, Cole Hamels (I say that mainly because of his youth/inexperience, he’s a long-term-stud) … thanks to Griffey’s arm (I presume, can someone provide a description of the play?) …
July 10, 2007 at 6:59 pm
44: Why use tiny URL? Cant you just click the link?
July 10, 2007 at 6:59 pm
57 … here’s the CBS description of the play …
I-Rod sends a base hit to right field, as A-Rod tests the arm of Griffey Jr. That’s a bad idea, as Rodriguez is out by a mile. Russell Martin caught the strike from right field and waited for Rodriguez before lightly tagging him for the final out. Somewhere, Pete Rose is cringing, as he would have laid out Martin a la Cleveland’s Ray Fosse back in 1970.
July 10, 2007 at 7:01 pm
A sharp hit to RF, Griffey got him and it wasn’t close - 5 steps…
July 10, 2007 at 7:01 pm
58 … he could have just as easily done a cut&paste of the full/long URL … it seems more “ugly” than it really is … and so a tinyurl seems “prettier” than it really is …
If / when you are dealing with systems that don’t handle long URLs as well as this blog/comment engine does (such as some email programs), that’s when having a tinyurl is most handy …
July 10, 2007 at 7:01 pm
59: Thats exactly what happened haha
July 10, 2007 at 7:05 pm
61: Doesnt pretty much every system convert a URL into a link these days? Just wondering because I never understood the point of taking the extra step to go to tiny url.
July 10, 2007 at 7:07 pm
Here comes Chris Young!
July 10, 2007 at 7:08 pm
Good to see CY out there.
July 10, 2007 at 7:12 pm
Young vs Ichiro! … seems like a *key* AB …
July 10, 2007 at 7:13 pm
I wish it hadn’t been CY to give up that run.
July 10, 2007 at 7:14 pm
This is why i didnt want CY in the All Star Game. Ichiro of all people almost hit an ouf of the park home run but ended up going around the bases anyway. I still dont understand how that 89 MPH fastball does not get hammered.
July 10, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Leading MVP candidate shifts from Jr to Ichiro!
67 … ya, I was worried about CY in this game …
July 10, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Here’s a description of the Ichiro! AB for anyone else that’s not watching …
Ichiro spanks one off of the right field wall and it turns around right fielder Ken Griffey Jr. It hits off of a banner on the wall and the carum goes the opposite way of where Griffey thought. Roberts easily scores and Ichiro motors all the way around for an inside-the-park home run in this 2007 All Star Game.
July 10, 2007 at 7:23 pm
The CBS-guy noted the irony of CY and Derek Lee playing on the field together
July 10, 2007 at 7:30 pm
Tinyurl: Any URL is a link, that’s what it means. Tinyurl just shortens them, because they can get huge. It makes it more manageable when you’re pasting a long link. Get a few layers deep on some servers and you’ve got a URL with 100 or more characters, which doesn’t always paste well.
Rose might have tried to flatten Martin, but Martin had plenty of time to get himself set. He almost had time to go put his mask back on.
July 10, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Did Crawford’s HR splash?
July 10, 2007 at 7:32 pm
I’d love me some Carl Crawford on the Padres.
July 10, 2007 at 7:32 pm
No, just got over but it was deep, he hit the crap out of it
July 10, 2007 at 7:35 pm
#71: LM, I’m watching the game on Fox, what are you doing with CBS?
July 10, 2007 at 7:36 pm
I doubt Crawford’s available, but we might think about buying low on Baldelli. Have to have a backup plan for CF because he breaks things walking through humid air, but a good risk if you get him cheap.
July 10, 2007 at 7:39 pm
76 … when I say “CBS”, I’m talking about the cbssportline.com web page … following along on its GameDay equivalent … and it’s got a guy “GLOG”ing … where “GLOG” stands for “Game Log”, I s’pose, which is like a one-man IGD …
July 10, 2007 at 7:44 pm
78: Bradley and Baldelli in the OF? Better hope they never get in a collision hahaha
July 10, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Looks like the NL is going down 10 years in a row.
July 10, 2007 at 8:44 pm
At least Jake had a decent start. Good for him.
July 10, 2007 at 8:51 pm
80: DOn’t speak so soon!
July 10, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Wow. Tony LaRussa is a bum.
July 10, 2007 at 9:09 pm
That was actually a fun game to watch.
July 10, 2007 at 9:19 pm
OK, I’m back … had to step out there … I caught a few minutes on ESPN radio … enough to remember how *great* Dave Campbell is on the radio … man, he’s just my style … makes my distaste for Leitner even greater …
Then I caught the last inning on TV … ORLANDO HUDSON? … AARON ROWAND? I was just assuming that all the great NL hitters who started the game on the bench had already been used … but that didn’t seem possible … and now I look at the box score … ALBERT PUJOLS *DID NOT PLAY*!!!! I’m just *livid* … I assume that’s what comment #83 is all about. I’ve been a LaRussa apologist for many years, being a partial-A’s-fan left me with a good impression of LaRussa … and I’ve heard him speak and I like him … but no more being a fan … he sent Orlando Hudson to the plate and Aaron Rowand to the plate with Pujols & Berkman available on the bench … just a travesty … ‘nuf said … g’night folks.
July 13, 2007 at 9:05 am
#6, 14, 32: Thanks for the input, guys. The only knock on Adrian right now is that he hasn’t been in a Padres uniform long enough. Assuming he and Peavy are still here when Trevor finally retires, I’m pretty confident that those two will be the faces of the organization.