Friday Links (20 Jul 07)
Fri, Jul 20, 2007
by Geoff Young
How ’bout that Chris Young. Friday night we get to watch one of the guys he was traded for, Adam Eaton. For the record, his ERA is a tad higher than Young’s…
- Young helps stifle Phils with vanishing fastball (San Diego Union-Tribune). Geoff Blum scored the game’s only run Thursday night. Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels, speaking about the change-up that Blum hit for a single: “I got a little overconfident there.” With Blum at the plate? C’mon, how is that even possible…
- Boomer adds a knuckleball (Friar Watch). Anthony offers his thoughts on the knuckler David Wells busted out Monday night against the Mets:
Given Boomer’s difficulties in getting past the 6th inning I’d like to see him throw a lot more knuckleballs, maybe save them for the third time through the order. Once Wells gets tired he starts relying on that big slow curve and hitters sit on it. The knuckler would give him another option and would definitely keep hitters on their toes.
I believe I could get behind that. Good thinking…
- Someone asked about OPS the other day, and I thought about writing a full post about it, but the good folks at Wikipedia have done a fine job of explaining what I failed to convey:
It should be noted that unlike many other statistics, a player’s OPS does not have a simple intrinsic meaning, despite its usefulness as a comparative statistic.
Well said. OPS is meaningless but useful. Batting average is meaningful (i.e., it actually measures something) but useless (i.e., what it measures doesn’t tell us much about how runs are scored, games are won, etc.). This may seem like semantics, but it’s important to be aware of a metric’s strengths and weaknesses before jumping in and using it.
- Gators looking better than Padres (St. Petersburg Times, via LynchMob in the comments). The Padres drafted a kid named Tommy Toledo in the third round. That is a great name; he should quit baseball and focus on developing his superhero skills. Back in the real world, Toledo, a high school right-hander out of Florida, and the Padres appear to be far apart in negotiations. Quoth Toledo’s adviser, former big-league pitcher Jim Bullinger:
I think the Padres understand they may have a Jake Peavy under their control at this point and they don’t want to let him go
Congrats, Jake; you’ve arrived. Folks are starting to throw your name around the way they do when comparing every finesse lefty to Tom Glavine (mentioning Jason Jacome somehow doesn’t inspire the same confidence).
- Checking in with Cooper Brannan (The Extrapolater). The former Marine currently is pitching in Rookie ball.
- Anxious Gwynn readies for Hall (North County Times, via LynchMob in the comments). This is mostly an excuse to remind you that we’re still working on a master plan for our meetup in Cooperstown next weekend.
- Gwynn Chats Online with Fans (National Baseball Hall of Fame, via LynchMob in the comments). On Petco Park:
I would have loved to hit here. The home run wasn’t really part of my game. I was a line drive hitter and that type of hitter is perfect for this park. But I’m just happy that we have a new ballpark. I get to work here and the TV booth is awesome, much better than Qualcomm, so I have reaped some benefits. With a street named after me and a statue going up, it keeps getting better and better.
- This is what Petco Park was supposed to look like (Gaslamp Ball). Speaking of Petco, jbox busts out a sweet artist’s rendering of the downtown ballpark from 2000.
Calling my own number…
- Blogger Beat: Ducksnorts. Me at MetsBlog, talking about the Padres’ offense, bullpen, Mike Cameron, Petco Park, and more.
- Suicide Fan Podcast #28: The MLB Trade Deadline with Geoff Young. Aaron and I chat about the All-Star game, deadline trade rumors, and the divisional races.
- Fact or fiction. Me at Hardball Times, revisiting our preseason look at the young talent in the NL West. Thanks, Didi, for reminding me to get back on this. Incidentally, if anyone ever has ideas about stuff you’d like to see me cover at THT, please let me know.
- Phillies/Padres Preview. Me at Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, talking about Petco Park, the proposed Aaron Rowand for Scott Linebrink deal that never materialized, Justin Germano, and more.
Hooray, links. Now over to Peter…
by Peter Friberg
You will not see the Padre hitters sweat. Three hits? Pssh, we got Chris Young on the mound. Seriously, Jake Peavy is getting a lot of love as a Cy Young candidate; when will we start looking at Chris in the same light?
AAA
Pete LaForest: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; HR, 3 SO
AA
Will Venable: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 2B, BB - .295/.356/.382
Brett Bonvechio: 4 AB, 3 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; 2B, HR, BB, SO - .328/.453/.741
Chad Huffman: 5 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 2 RBI; HR, 2 SO - first AA HR
High-A
David Freese: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; BB, 2 SO
Kyle Blanks: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 2 RBI; HR, SO - .310/.387/.568
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 4 AB, 0 R 2 H, 1 RBI - .276/.334/.349
Ernesto Frieri: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
Short Season-A
Luis Durango: 5 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; SO
Eric Sogard: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; SO, S
Keith Conlon: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; 3B, SO
Danny Payne: 4 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 0 RBI; 2 SB
Cory Luebke: 4.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
Rookie
Brad Chalk: 2 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; BB - pro debut
Tyler Mead: 5.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
Is Bonvechio playing his way into the discussion in left? I don’t know, but he has definitely played his way onto my watch list…
[Ed note: Glad to hear you're warming up to Bonvechio. Dude can flat rake.]
I hated the Corey Luebke pick — hated it. Tonight he went 12 up, 12 down. Corey has “only” 15 strikeouts in 17 innings, but he has yet to walk a batter. Yes, he has a 0/15 BB/SO ratio to go with his 1.06 ERA.
Thanks, Peter. Happy Friday, folks; if you’re not heading out to the game tonight, be here for the IGD around 6 p.m. PT.
Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 20, 2007 at 8:26 am
a post on mlbtraderumors says the Padres have interest in one Mark Loretta.. with Giles in his slump is it a wait and see what happens with him? Also this is the same Loretta who refused to change positions and left but now has played every infield position on the year. Would it be bad to deal for him?
July 20, 2007 at 8:32 am
Hey Geoff I didn’t get in on the IGD last night but I wanted to tell you I liked the win share chart you made up for the 2002 draft. While I’m not sure that it proves he is a better player than any of the guys that we could have had it does show that he has been a very good pick. Could any of those other guys been as much help to us over the past 3 or 4 years as KG has? Definitely not! It would be awesome to think of Hamels or Swisher or Cain or Teahan or any number of those guys on our roster today but that just means that the first MLB game ever played at Petco probably would have featured Ramon Vasquez or Rey Ordonez at shortstop. I have a love/hate relationship with KG but that chart makes me a little more happy to have had him these past few years especially when you look at some of the other options at SS we could have right now!
July 20, 2007 at 8:36 am
I would love to see Loretta at 2B and Giles off the bench.
Giles
Loretta
A-gon
Cammy
Jenga
Barrett
Kouz
Greenie
that may be a playoff type lineup
July 20, 2007 at 8:41 am
1.
Loretta isn’t a bad character guy. He was pissed that the Padres wanted to bring up Barfield and he didn’t want to switch positions when he was playing the best baseball of his career. I understand that. He never really even made those comments on his own, he was asked if switching positions to make room for a rookie was something he would want to do and he responded with something along the lines of “that’s not really something I would be willing to do”. He didn’t sound like a dick when he said it he just sounded like a proud major leaguer coming off a couple of good seasons. I think he would be amazing for this team at the plate in the field and in the clubhouse!
July 20, 2007 at 8:46 am
#2: Thanks, bud, glad you liked it. Khalil is a flawed player and I suspect a lot of us have that love/hate thing going with him. Every now and then I have to remind folks (including myself) that he’s better than we might think.
It’s also important to realize that KG is the only player from that entire draft class to make it as a starting shortstop in the big leagues. If you needed a shortstop in that draft and didn’t get Khalil, you were SOL:
http://www.baseball-reference......ype=junreg
July 20, 2007 at 8:56 am
5 … you’ve probably posted that link before, but today is the first time I’ve click’d on it … AWESOME!!! That B-R.com site is AMAZING! Thanks!
(ps. You head out on “tour” in less than 3 days!!! :-O )
July 20, 2007 at 8:59 am
5 … and that link makes it easy to see that the Padres could have had JJ Hardy instead of Jake Gautreau in 2001
July 20, 2007 at 9:08 am
#6: Yes, B-R rocks. And I’m getting very psyched about the tour. Have rooms booked in every town, making a Costco run tonight. I love a road trip…
#7: Oh, you so don’t want to go there.
July 20, 2007 at 9:10 am
2: About a week ago on GLB, I posted a Win Shares per AB analysis of that same table since people were pitching the “he’s been playing longer than everyone else” argument. Even by that statistic, Khalil is more valuable as it takes him fewer ABs (and presumably fewer games) to equal a WS than his contemporaries. I should note that this system breaks down with the pitchers as they have a more significant impact on games than position players do.
July 20, 2007 at 9:23 am
It sure seems like any draft pick that results in an MLB win share is a good draft pick …
It seems like 3 dimensions exist to evaluate the relative value of those win shares … a cost dimension, which comes in 2 forms: actual dollar cost (ie. how much did it cost to sign the player, and this is usually determined by how high the player was picked) and opportunity cost (ie. drafting player A means you’ve passed on the opportunity to pick all the players taken after him and before your next pick, which is pretty fuzzy, I realize) … and an ROI dimension, which has a “time-value” element to it (ie. win shares earned sooner are more valuable than win share earned later, right?).
KG’s win shares in 2004 were are very quick ROI … it will be interesing to see how long it takes for Fielder and Hamels to catch up … and then the debate will be about the value of KG’s win shares in ‘04 and ‘05 versus what I might be higher win share numbers from PF and CH at the end of their careers …
July 20, 2007 at 9:50 am
3: Not sure if I like your line up, but i would love to see the moe for Loretta made. Its obvious we got the declining 2006 Marcus Giles who’s option we shouldnt pick up in ‘08 and should let Antonelli make a run for the job in the spring. We keep Loretta and let him have a chance at the job is Antonelli isnt ready. If Antonelli is ready, then Loretta is a great bat off the bench. At this point Loretta for 2 looks better than Marcus for 4, to me.
July 20, 2007 at 9:52 am
10.
My realization I guess is yeah even if those guys prove to be better than KG (and it looks like a couple of them might be pretty quickly) how much would either of them have helped us going into Petco Park in 2004? None. He’s been pretty important to our recent sucess and most of those guys have not come on until recently.
July 20, 2007 at 10:08 am
11 moe for loretta?
July 20, 2007 at 10:20 am
13: *move, sorry i wish there was a way to edit your comments
July 20, 2007 at 10:29 am
I’m not ready to throw NOG under the bus yet, but I am in favor of the Loretta move, sending Sledge down since the club still has an option on him. We’ll need to give guys some breaks, and Loretta is a solid fill in anywhere.
I’d use Loretta to replace Blum, but that’s never going to happen, especially with Blum’s success the last two days.
July 20, 2007 at 10:33 am
15 … I’m ready to throw NOG under the bus … but I know it’s more complicated than that …
July 20, 2007 at 10:35 am
If we get Loretta, it had better be Blum that gets axed and not Sledge. Trading Sledge’s bat out for Loretta’s is not an upgrade.
July 20, 2007 at 11:10 am
Sledge’s bat ? What’s he hitting now .219 or so ? Also Sledge strikes out a ton (lincluding his last crucial pinch hitting at bat when he struck out on a pitch over his head.
July 20, 2007 at 11:36 am
OT - UTK at BP is free today …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6477
… nothing Padre-specific, but, as always, lots of interesting notes.
July 20, 2007 at 11:40 am
Against righties, Sledge is hitting .258/.348/.452, which is a higher OPS than Loretta’s while hitting in a much worse environment (that’s Loretta’s total OPS; he doesn’t really have platoon splits). Plus, there is no way Loretta keeps hitting like he has the rest of the year.
I do agree we should pursue Loretta, since he is a big upgrade over Blum and is a viable secondbase option if NOG continues sucking.
July 20, 2007 at 11:57 am
Blum can play all four infield positions and is essentially the backup short stop if the injury prone Greene gets hurt. If someone like Loretta were added it would be Sledge that probably gets the ax.
July 20, 2007 at 11:58 am
I’m no huge fan of Blum but he’s better than a lot of you give him credit for. He’s at least an average defensive player (better if you look at BP’s defensive stats for), doesn’t cost any money and is well like in the clubhouse. He’s miscast as a starter or pinch-hitter but that’s not his role on this team (now that they’ve upgraded the bench he doesn’t PH much anymore). He’s certainly better than Ramon Martinez (the Dodgers middle infield backup) or the just traded Cesar Izturis (or at least cheaper and not bad enough for it to matter).
I think it’s funny that people are defending Loretta for not wanting to lose his job to a rookie (Barfield) but now want to bring him in for the rest of this season and then lose his job next year to another rookie (Antonelli).
July 20, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Antonelli will not be ready by april 08, he will only have half a season of AA ball, I think it will be Aug 08 before we see antonelli starting at 2B for the Pads
July 20, 2007 at 12:05 pm
I also don’t see the point in bringing in Loretta to replace Blum. Blum is a much better defender and is the last bat off the bench right now (and will be even lower when they get to the playoff after they get rid of their extra pitchers). Now Loretta might be better than Giles at the plate right now but who is to say that’s going to last? Giles is a much better defender who probably makes up with his glove whatever advantage Loretta gets at the plate.
July 20, 2007 at 12:06 pm
What the Pads really need is a right handed bat (with some pop) off the bench.
July 20, 2007 at 12:36 pm
OT…But interesting match up tonight in terms of the journeys different ball players take. When Eaton was here he was one of the guys keeping Germano in the minors his first go around. Had he not signed in Philly this off seaon, there is a decent chance Germano makes the Phillies out of spring training.
July 20, 2007 at 1:31 pm
22, 24
Lorreta I think is on a 1 year contract so it’s not really the same situation as it was when he got replaced by Barfield. Besides that I don’t know if Antonelli will be ready by opening day 2008. I have an extremely hard time buying the fact that Blum is much better than Loretta defensively. Blum is also not the last bat on the bench right now either. Branyon seems to me to be the last bat on the bench and only used against “hard throwing” pitchers or when Kouz gets a night off. Loretta would also give us a right handed option because I don’t know about you but I also have a hard time saying Blum is a right handed option. I think the point for Loretta on this team is that right now he is a good hitting 2nd baseman and we DO NOT have one of those at the moment. Giles MIGHT come around but if you are looking at the numbers he has been on the decline for a few years now. If this team can start scoring runs we can easily content for the world series and at this moment he is an upgrade plain and simple.
July 20, 2007 at 1:33 pm
Blum is barely a replacement level hitter. The only position he fields well is third base and we have two guys that play third. He’s about one win below average over the course of a season at second and about four wins below average over the course of a season at short. I don’t think anyone here is even capable of underestimating that.
July 20, 2007 at 1:34 pm
26.
Didn’t Eaton originally come from Philly before we got him?
Eaton - Philly, San Diego, Texas, Philly
Germano - San Diego, Cincy, Philly, San Diego
July 20, 2007 at 1:35 pm
27: This season, Loretta is basically the same quality fielder as Blum at second base and is a little worse at short.
July 20, 2007 at 1:38 pm
In Blum’s defense, at least he’s a better fielding second baseman than Josh Barfield.
July 20, 2007 at 1:39 pm
29: Yes. And the Padres had considered drafting Eaton, but Philly grabbed him at 11. A few picks later we took…….Matt Halloran.
That whole 96 first round was kinda bleh.
July 20, 2007 at 1:40 pm
You’ve gotta love Cooper Brannan’s nickname….niner. And he lets them call him that.copy of post from GY in the headliner. http://extrapolater.wordpress......r-brannan/
July 20, 2007 at 1:49 pm
30.
Well if the defense is about scratch then I guess we’ll should compare and contrast the offensive numbers.
Giles - .237 .309 .329
Blum - .230 .302 .336
Loretta - .307 .383 .402
Blum also has 26 K’s in 113 AB’s. Loretta on the other hand has 23K’s in 264 AB’s. IMO that’s an upgrade.
July 20, 2007 at 2:01 pm
33.
HAHAHA
“um… did I catch a 9′er in there?”
July 20, 2007 at 2:15 pm
34: right now Loretta is an upgrade over both Blum and Marcus. He he came here and didnt hit well, then you give marcus a chance again. i dont see what there is to lose, and we have a good #2 hitter/2nd baseman or bench bat to gain.
July 20, 2007 at 2:17 pm
36.
Yeah I agree
July 20, 2007 at 2:52 pm
33 … thanks for the link … but I don’t get the significance of the nickname “Niner”?
July 20, 2007 at 2:54 pm
38.
Dude has only got 9 fingers!
July 20, 2007 at 3:05 pm
39 … ah, of course … thanks
July 20, 2007 at 3:08 pm
(WARNING: this is tounge-in-cheek)
Wow, Paul McAnulty sure sucks lately … he went 0-for-4 today playing for the *Rookie* league AZL Padres …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb
… and he drag’d Yefri (the Great) and the all the rest down with him to a 6-1 defeat, what’s up with that???
July 20, 2007 at 3:09 pm
41 … sorry for the sp on “tongue”
… at least I got “cheek” right …
July 20, 2007 at 3:11 pm
D’backs lose …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270720116
… again, the day starts off well. And this with the Cubs’ Derrek Lee sitting out (both due to injury and suspension, fyi).
July 20, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Not to belabor the BA vs OPS vs. SLG vs OBP vs ISO stat discussion, we might have made it past the first round of the playoffs in ‘06 if we actually got some HITS with runners in scoring position?
OBP was the same for both teams (.310). The Cardinals had the higher SLG (.376 vs. .310), but that is primarily due to the two home runs they hit that we didn’t. They hit .272, while we hit .225.
July 20, 2007 at 4:15 pm
45: You mean like hitting against the curveball throwing Jeff Weaver? Man, that still burns me when I think about it.
I like Loretta but where are we going to put him? I’m not seeing NOG sitting down for much longer. My guess is that he’s tired with his hack or nothing approach. I’m willing to see how NOG is going to hit the rest of the month.
Loretta is not going to be better than Silent L playing the infield but he’ll be better at the plate some, plus, he won’t be getting any younger next year either. I’d rather see Chris Burke.
I still don’t understand why the Padres chose to DFA’d Bocachica instead of just sending Sledge down to AAA? Sledge’s bat is not much better and he’s an adventure in LF. Bocachica can run, play better OF and RHB.
July 20, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Oops, I meant #44 up there instead of #45. LM, where were you to point this out before I made the mistake?
July 20, 2007 at 4:37 pm
Here are some other names that I like better than Loretta:
- Luis Castillo, Twins,
- Mark DeRosa, Cubs,
- Ronnie Belliard, Was,
- Alfredo Amezaga, Fla.
I think either of those players can be had for not too high of a price.
July 20, 2007 at 4:40 pm
45: The OBP freaks prop Sledge’s .319. But he has 6 walks batting 8th, 11 2 out walks and 7 walks -2 or -3. There are dups and none of these were “technically” intentional of course ,but it could be argued that, on a low scoring team, these walks are less than high quality— hardly the equivalent of a hit. Anyway if you ignore 8 of them, his OBP becomes .272.
July 20, 2007 at 4:42 pm
#45: I think I read that they front office believed that Sledge gave them a better option, i.e., more power off the bench.
July 20, 2007 at 4:49 pm
Defensively, Sledge has quietly been 5 runs above average in left — by UZR.
July 20, 2007 at 5:05 pm
50: That’s a surprise.
LM, did you get a copy of the book?
http://tinyurl.com/26a53x
July 20, 2007 at 5:11 pm
47: I really dont think any of those guys are for sale right now but they would all definitely start over Marcus.
July 20, 2007 at 5:12 pm
#49 That makes sense– higher SLG.
July 20, 2007 at 5:13 pm
50: I find that hard to believe with how lost he is out there, this seems to be a stat where the numbers lie. He is just god-awful in LF.
July 20, 2007 at 5:23 pm
54: UZR is probably the best defensive statistic out there. Of course, with a relatively small sample, there’s going to be room for error. I wouldn’t doubt if Sledge is really closer to average, but he’s still been better than what we see with the naked eye, imo. By the way, he’s been +14 by UZR from 04-07.
July 20, 2007 at 5:44 pm
55: I’m not saying the stat is bad, I am saying it is bad in this specific case. He is hard to watch out there.
I dont really understand the move though. Sledge has an option.
July 20, 2007 at 5:55 pm
47:
The Cubs signed DeRosa last winter and they’re charging, he’s not available.
Minnesota’s not out of it yet. Castillo might be a waiver move, but what does he offer vs Loretta? Not a great defender, no power, worse OBP, doesn’t steal anymore.
Belliard. Pretty equivalent to MLo, no quibble there. He was the St. Louis good-luck charm against us last year, if that’s worth anything. I don’t think he has Loretta’s bat control.
Amazega. Blum but 5 years younger and still athletic enough to play CF. Not a bad player to pursue when building the 2008 Padres, but not much purpose to this year’s team with Blum entrenched.
I like that Loretta has already played 2 seasons in Petco. He knows what happens to fly balls there, he’s not going to burn about it.
July 20, 2007 at 5:59 pm
55, 56: I’m torn. I’d like to believe in what UZR tells us, but Sledge sometimes looks like he’s playing defense blindfolded.
It shouldn’t matter much the rest of the year. If Bradley-Cameron-Giles stay healthy they should get 85% of the starts with Cruz as the main backup. Sledge’s defense is immaterial when he’s coming off the bench to hit RHP.