IGD: Padres vs Mets (17 Jul 07)
Tue, Jul 17, 2007
by Geoff Young
| time: | 7:05 p.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Jake Peavy (9-3, 2.19) vs Orlando Hernandez (5-4, 3.20) |
| pre: | Padres.com, SI.com |
I cannot begin to tell you how glad I am that the Diamondbacks traded Orlando Hernandez for Jorge Julio in May 2006. Sure, it made sense at the time, but Arizona could use Hernandez right about now.
Meanwhile, Jake Peavy has been less than his dominant self of late. Since June 1, he’s posted a 3.35 ERA over seven starts, and opponents are batting .256/.321/.337. Not bad, but we get spoiled by those long stretches where Jake shuts down everyone.
On another note, I’ve taken your feedback and made some tweaks to the player dashboard I introduced last month…
Jake Peavy Dashboard (click image for larger version)
Main changes from previous attempt:
- Got rid of 3d views for cleaner, more readable graphic.
- Added league averages for ISO and BB/PA trends to provide greater context.
- Removed ISO and BB/PA from Player vs Position graph to avoid duplicating trend graphs.
I tried to ditch the pie chart, but everything I came up with in its place was too cluttered. I’m also sticking with black-and-white since these are intended for use in next year’s book, and printing in color costs extra bucks.
As always, comments are welcome…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 17, 2007 at 6:02 pm
I’m trying to keep up with all the different statistics nowadays…but a couple slipped past me. Could somebody please explain to me what ISO is and what OPS+ is? thanks!
July 17, 2007 at 6:08 pm
ISO = Isolated Power … a way to determine the part of SLG that is truely related to “power” (and not just because of a high batting average)
OPS+ is OPS normalized to the season is was generated in … so it’s adjusted for the league averages … an OPS+ of 100 is “average” … over that is “above average” and below that is “below average” … it’s one of my favorite stats now (along with the corresponding pitcher stat ERA+).
July 17, 2007 at 6:09 pm
1 … here’s BP’s explanation of ISO …
http://baseballprospectus.com/.....search=iso
July 17, 2007 at 6:10 pm
1 … and here’s BR info about OPS+ …
http://www.baseball-reference......sary.shtml
July 17, 2007 at 6:13 pm
Lynch Mob- Let’s change your name to “Internet Stat Guy”
July 17, 2007 at 6:17 pm
ISG for IGD? Eh, I like LM better
Besides, Richard B Wade is *the* ISG … and don’t you forget it!
July 17, 2007 at 6:18 pm
#2: One thing about OPS+ is that it’s based on OPS, which is a garbage stat (i.e., it doesn’t really measure anything) that works well in back-of-the-envelope equations. Most of the time, that’s good enough for our purposes, but if you’re doing hardcore evaluations, there are better tools than OPS+. I have to put that disclaimer out there because it’s important to know a metric’s limitations before using it. I find OPS+ extremely useful in identifying similar groups of players to then examine more closely using more precise metrics.
July 17, 2007 at 6:18 pm
My bad. Forgot already. Maybe you are LM for “Link Man”
July 17, 2007 at 6:38 pm
Ok, thanks a lot for the explanation. I was thinking that OPS+ may have been something like how far over somebody’s OPS was than the league’s average at their position.
On another note, did anybody hear the Khalil Greene interview on 1090 a couple hours ago? He was pretty funny, saying that he was far too pale to go to the beach and that if he did ever go to the beach he would probably have to be put on the DL. He had me laughing out loud.
July 17, 2007 at 6:42 pm
LOVE the new dashboards. Very clean. Very easy to understand. Kudos bud. Stats are tricky. You need them, but like the guy in the Gulf War breifing room, when you bring out the chart, people’s eyes roll into their heads. To do this as cleanly as you did is not insignificant.
July 17, 2007 at 6:55 pm
OT … i still get a kick out of seeing “T Gwynn” in an MLB lineup …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270717108
… I’ll bet Jr will get a day off on the 29th, doncha think?
July 17, 2007 at 6:57 pm
Down on the Farm … Yefri (the Great) was *great* again today …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb
… 3 doubles and a single in 5 ABs!
July 17, 2007 at 6:59 pm
Lots going on at the San Antonion Missions game tonight …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_friaax_1
… Antonelli with a hit … Chase with a hit and a walk … Hundley with HR #16 … Leblanc getting touch’d a bit …
July 17, 2007 at 7:00 pm
You don’t see 1-hitters in A-ball very often …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_ftwafx_1
… tell us about Faris, PF?
July 17, 2007 at 7:04 pm
An interesting look at the signing status of Padres’ 3rd round pick Tommy Toledo …
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/07.....tter.shtml
July 17, 2007 at 7:11 pm
9: Allegedly, he was also asked if he’d ever get tossed from a game for arguing balls and strikes. Khalil promptly responded that it would never happen, since he would have to know where the strike zone was to argue the call.
July 17, 2007 at 7:12 pm
Amazing catch for OG.!!!!!!!!!
July 17, 2007 at 7:12 pm
What a catch by OG! That’s why he stays out in RF!
July 17, 2007 at 7:12 pm
OT … an interesting look at the Astros trade talk …
http://www.statesman.com/sport.....bohls.html
… between Jennings and Loretta and Burke, they have some interesting players “available” …
July 17, 2007 at 7:14 pm
Jakes 1st inning …
Pitches-strikes - J Peavy 13-10.
Ground balls-fly balls - J Peavy 0-3.
Batters faced - J Peavy 4.
July 17, 2007 at 7:14 pm
How exactly did Beltran double on a ground ball to NOG?
July 17, 2007 at 7:15 pm
21: It kicked off the bag at first.
July 17, 2007 at 7:17 pm
I just noticed the bold move Bud has made in the lineup … KK batting 7th … ahead of Bocachica (who’s sub’ing for Cameron in CF) … eh, it’s a start up the order for KK …
July 17, 2007 at 7:18 pm
That’s the kind of thing we see from Adrian
July 17, 2007 at 7:18 pm
#21: Damn thing hit the First base just so that it went right over Adrian’s head.
July 17, 2007 at 7:19 pm
OT … Phils get a run in top of 1st @ LA …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270717119
July 17, 2007 at 7:20 pm
16: yes, he said that as well. He said there have been times he’s felt like arguing, but when he went and looked at it later he saw the pitch really was a strike so he was glad that he hadn’t said anything.
July 17, 2007 at 7:21 pm
Interesting that Black has Bocachica out in center field and Bradley in left, instead of seeing how Bradley plays center in Petco. Probably makes more sense for keeping Bradley healthy this year though.
July 17, 2007 at 7:22 pm
Aparently Bud didnt get the memo about Marcus…
July 17, 2007 at 7:24 pm
wow that was a goofy hit
July 17, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Antonelli is now 2 for 4 with a HR
July 17, 2007 at 7:25 pm
26 … make that 2-0
July 17, 2007 at 7:25 pm
#31 and Hundley hit his second of the night
July 17, 2007 at 7:25 pm
31/33 … see link to box score at 13 …
July 17, 2007 at 7:26 pm
32 … make that 3-0!
July 17, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Oh JAKE, that was pretty
July 17, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Jake thru 2 …
Pitches-strikes - O Hernandez 14-8; J Peavy 28-22.
Ground balls-fly balls - O Hernandez 0-3; J Peavy 1-3.
Batters faced - O Hernandez 4; J Peavy 8.
July 17, 2007 at 7:27 pm
35: Just giving an update
July 17, 2007 at 7:29 pm
It’s good to hear Antonelli is still hitting for power after leaving the cozy confines of the Cal League.
July 17, 2007 at 7:30 pm
Uh oh. Phils are sending JD Durbin and his 13.50 ERA to the mound against the Dodgers.
July 17, 2007 at 7:30 pm
39: He is just plain hitting, its great to see it
July 17, 2007 at 7:35 pm
Heckuva play by Adrian to avoid Jake and make the tag on El Duque.
July 17, 2007 at 7:35 pm
Jake is gonna get hurt playing defense this year before he gets hurt pitching haha
July 17, 2007 at 7:37 pm
40 … his ERA is now down to 12.27 … even he can get Pierre out most of the time!
July 17, 2007 at 7:40 pm
Wow, Durbin shuts the Dodgers out for one inning lowering his ERA to 12.27 and comes back and leads off the next inning with a hit!
July 17, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Jake thru 3 …
Pitches-strikes - O Hernandez 22-14; J Peavy 37-27.
Ground balls-fly balls - O Hernandez 2-3; J Peavy 2-5.
Batters faced - O Hernandez 7; J Peavy 11.
July 17, 2007 at 7:42 pm
44: Knowing the Padres, when he pitches against Jake he will throw 6 shut out innings. Hopefully Jake will throw 7
July 17, 2007 at 7:43 pm
I’m off to go see Transformers. Give ‘em hell boys!
July 17, 2007 at 7:43 pm
45 … Hendrickson’s line for LA so far … 1 IP, 7 H, 3 ERs (and counting) … yow!
July 17, 2007 at 7:46 pm
Steve From Boston pointed me to this nice little article about how Tony’s doing headed into the biggest day of his (baseball) life …
http://www.nctimes.com/article....._16_07.txt
July 17, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Impressive job by the Phillies of loading the bases with their 3-4-5 hitters coming up and no outs and scoring 0 runs.
July 17, 2007 at 7:50 pm
#50: Nick Canepa had a pretty good artical in today’s SD U-T as well.
July 17, 2007 at 7:51 pm
51: They must share our hitting coach
July 17, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Dude, Jake, stop falling behind and walking people.
July 17, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Milledge seems overmatched by Jake’s slider.
July 17, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Geez, how many pitches did Jake throw that inning?
July 17, 2007 at 8:03 pm
52 … thanks for the pointer … here’s a link …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....anepa.html
LM
July 17, 2007 at 8:04 pm
56: 30.
July 17, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Jake thru 4 …
Pitches-strikes - O Hernandez 34-23; J Peavy 67-44.
Ground balls-fly balls - O Hernandez 4-3; J Peavy 2-6.
Batters faced - O Hernandez 10; J Peavy 17.
… that’d be 30 pitches in the 4th
July 17, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Can Marcus just sit down and we just start the inning with 1 out?
July 17, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Gonzo is back
July 17, 2007 at 8:07 pm
60 … I think I’d rather have the pitcher actually throw the 1 pitch … every little bit helps!
July 17, 2007 at 8:07 pm
we need a Greeney moment here
July 17, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Bradley IW’d? What’s that all about?
July 17, 2007 at 8:09 pm
62: Ha ha true, maybe the pitcher just throws 3 strikes and marcus can swing, that way if there are runners on we wont get a DP
July 17, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Khalil against Orlando Hernandez seems like a really bad matchup.
July 17, 2007 at 8:10 pm
64: El Duque kills righties, lefties no so much…
July 17, 2007 at 8:10 pm
7: GY, garbage stat? I think that’s a little harsh. OPS is very indicative of the quality of a player’s plate performance, and the adjustments to OPS+ make it an even better measure. It’s hardly a garbage stat, imo. It’s important to understand what it measures and how you can make use of it, but that is true of any stat. OPS and OPS+ are far better measures of plate performance than the oft quoted Triple Crown stats.
9: Actually, Mike, that’s very close to what OPS+ is. It doesn’t take it to the level of position, but it IS a measure of how far above average a player’s OPS is, normed for park and league factors. 100 is league average.
July 17, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Khalil is finally starting to take pitches here and there.
July 17, 2007 at 8:13 pm
68 … I’m with you, Pat … “garbage stat” is too harsh … I’m a fan of OPS … an even bigger fan of OPS+ … I like the simplicity …
July 17, 2007 at 8:14 pm
D-backs lose … 3-2 to Brewers!
July 17, 2007 at 8:16 pm
Thanks LM. By the way, I’d like to know how many other baseball blogs have fans participating in the IGD from as far away as Kuwait. Ducknsnorts rules!
This is the first time this season I’ve been up early enough to get in on the IGD.
July 17, 2007 at 8:16 pm
Well that sucked. Weak outs while ahead in the count are lame.
July 17, 2007 at 8:17 pm
72 … what are you doing in Kuwait?
July 17, 2007 at 8:19 pm
way to take advantage of the “leadoff” double guys
July 17, 2007 at 8:19 pm
Wow, Mike Thompson sucks tonight …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_lvgaaa_1
… Sledge with a hit …
July 17, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Wow, se are just piss poor agaist stealing babes
July 17, 2007 at 8:21 pm
77 … huh?
July 17, 2007 at 8:22 pm
74: Working, My Man, working.
July 17, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Hey, just got here
Why no Cameron (Mike) ?
Thanks, all
July 17, 2007 at 8:22 pm
35 … make that 5-0!
July 17, 2007 at 8:23 pm
haha sorry I typed that while watching the tv… Everyone steals on us, pretty easily, is what I meant
July 17, 2007 at 8:23 pm
#68: I should preface this by noting that I like OPS and OPS+, and use both quite often.
That said, OPS is garbage in the sense that the formula ((H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+SF+HBP))+((1B+2*2B+3*3B+4*HR)/AB)) doesn’t really measure anything. Of course, it’s better than the triple crown stats because it gives us a rough idea of a player’s ability to reach base and drive the ball, but what the heck does that denominator even mean?
OPS is a garbage stat that happens to be useful.
July 17, 2007 at 8:23 pm
#72: Pat, do you know HM2 Ben Johnston?
July 17, 2007 at 8:23 pm
77, 78: I think you are saying that even a baby could steal against us?
July 17, 2007 at 8:23 pm
79 … appreciate the work … and having you check in here!
July 17, 2007 at 8:23 pm
80: Rest
July 17, 2007 at 8:24 pm
#80: He’s just getting the night off.
July 17, 2007 at 8:25 pm
85 … maybe “duque” means “baby” in cuba?
July 17, 2007 at 8:26 pm
I want the April/May version of Jake back…
July 17, 2007 at 8:26 pm
81 … make it 6-0 … Hendrickson’s line now reads 3 IPs, 11 Hs …
July 17, 2007 at 8:27 pm
85: Pretty much… while Barrett is slightly better at throwing guys out than Bard, he is still not “good” at it and he has trouble keeping balls in the glove or in front of him more than Bard does.
July 17, 2007 at 8:27 pm
#86: Ditto. Glad you could join us tonight, Pat.
July 17, 2007 at 8:27 pm
Wow, Peavy looks really bad tonight. I really hope his biceps thing isn’t more serious. Black’s gotta get him out of here now. Giving up hits to the pitcher and Valentin are two really bad signs.
July 17, 2007 at 8:30 pm
He didnt look that bad there. It just looks like he is laboring, he needs to throw more first pitch strikes.
July 17, 2007 at 8:30 pm
91 … 8-0 … and counting!
July 17, 2007 at 8:30 pm
83: I guess I’m just not reading you, Geoff. Hear’s how I see it: we know OBP correlates very highly with runs scored; we also know SLG correlates very highly, but not quite as well as OBP, with runs scored. By adding OBP and SLG together you get OPS, which correlates even better than OBP to runs scored. Hence, a player’s OPS is an excellent measure of offensive performance or how much a player’s offense correlates to runs scored. I don’t see how that’s garbage. Scoring runs is the name of the game.
July 17, 2007 at 8:31 pm
Thru 5 …
Pitches-strikes - O Hernandez 55-33; J Peavy 93-61.
Ground balls-fly balls - O Hernandez 5-5; J Peavy 3-7.
Batters faced - O Hernandez 15; J Peavy 23.
… I’ve seen enough of Jake for the night …
July 17, 2007 at 8:31 pm
84: No, I don’t know anyone by that name.
86: Thanks, LM; that’s very kind of you to say. I always check in, but it’s very rare I get to enjoy this sort of interaction. It sure is nice to be up when y’all are!
July 17, 2007 at 8:32 pm
95:
I dunno, man, 94 pitches through 5 innings? And a hit by El Duque, who’s 40 and, you know, a pitcher? Obviously Jake’s always had a stretch where he struggles, but I worry that the biceps problem is affecting his motion, which may have a cascade effect on his elbow/shoulder, etc.
July 17, 2007 at 8:33 pm
93: Thanks a lot, GY. You know the only place I’d rather be than a Ducksnorts IGD is a Ducksnorts get together at a ball game!
July 17, 2007 at 8:33 pm
97 … we need more people like you, Pat, in places like Kuwait … you sound like a guy that makes the world a better place to live!
July 17, 2007 at 8:34 pm
#99: Thanks bro. It’s my brother-in-law. His 3rd deployment. First two with the Marines in Iraq. This one in Kuwait. Just thought I’d ask.
July 17, 2007 at 8:35 pm
The moment of truth … who’s in the on-deck circle?
July 17, 2007 at 8:37 pm
Nice thing Cameron’s on the bench. He’s been slumping while Bocachica’s been playing so well lately. And we’re only playing, like, the first place team in the NL, so why not rest our regulars. Sorry to be so negative, but Boca’s been clueless both times up.
July 17, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Always nice to see a pitcher field his position.
July 17, 2007 at 8:48 pm
Jake thru 6 …
Pitches-strikes - O Hernandez 76-44; J Peavy 104-68.
Ground balls-fly balls - O Hernandez 5-7; J Peavy 5-8.
Batters faced - O Hernandez 19; J Peavy 26.
… OK, then!