| time: | 7:05 p.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Jake Peavy (9-3, 2.19) vs Orlando Hernandez (5-4, 3.20) |
| pre: | Padres.com, SI.com |
I cannot begin to tell you how glad I am that the Diamondbacks traded Orlando Hernandez for Jorge Julio in May 2006. Sure, it made sense at the time, but Arizona could use Hernandez right about now.
Meanwhile, Jake Peavy has been less than his dominant self of late. Since June 1, he’s posted a 3.35 ERA over seven starts, and opponents are batting .256/.321/.337. Not bad, but we get spoiled by those long stretches where Jake shuts down everyone.
On another note, I’ve taken your feedback and made some tweaks to the player dashboard I introduced last month…
Jake Peavy Dashboard (click image for larger version)
Main changes from previous attempt:
- Got rid of 3d views for cleaner, more readable graphic.
- Added league averages for ISO and BB/PA trends to provide greater context.
- Removed ISO and BB/PA from Player vs Position graph to avoid duplicating trend graphs.
I tried to ditch the pie chart, but everything I came up with in its place was too cluttered. I’m also sticking with black-and-white since these are intended for use in next year’s book, and printing in color costs extra bucks.
As always, comments are welcome…
149 Comments
I’m trying to keep up with all the different statistics nowadays…but a couple slipped past me. Could somebody please explain to me what ISO is and what OPS+ is? thanks!
ISO = Isolated Power … a way to determine the part of SLG that is truely related to “power” (and not just because of a high batting average)
OPS+ is OPS normalized to the season is was generated in … so it’s adjusted for the league averages … an OPS+ of 100 is “average” … over that is “above average” and below that is “below average” … it’s one of my favorite stats now (along with the corresponding pitcher stat ERA+).
1 … here’s BP’s explanation of ISO …
http://baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=iso
1 … and here’s BR info about OPS+ …
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/bat_glossary.shtml
Lynch Mob- Let’s change your name to “Internet Stat Guy”
ISG for IGD? Eh, I like LM better
Besides, Richard B Wade is *the* ISG … and don’t you forget it!
#2: One thing about OPS+ is that it’s based on OPS, which is a garbage stat (i.e., it doesn’t really measure anything) that works well in back-of-the-envelope equations. Most of the time, that’s good enough for our purposes, but if you’re doing hardcore evaluations, there are better tools than OPS+. I have to put that disclaimer out there because it’s important to know a metric’s limitations before using it. I find OPS+ extremely useful in identifying similar groups of players to then examine more closely using more precise metrics.
My bad. Forgot already. Maybe you are LM for “Link Man”
Ok, thanks a lot for the explanation. I was thinking that OPS+ may have been something like how far over somebody’s OPS was than the league’s average at their position.
On another note, did anybody hear the Khalil Greene interview on 1090 a couple hours ago? He was pretty funny, saying that he was far too pale to go to the beach and that if he did ever go to the beach he would probably have to be put on the DL. He had me laughing out loud.
LOVE the new dashboards. Very clean. Very easy to understand. Kudos bud. Stats are tricky. You need them, but like the guy in the Gulf War breifing room, when you bring out the chart, people’s eyes roll into their heads. To do this as cleanly as you did is not insignificant.
OT … i still get a kick out of seeing “T Gwynn” in an MLB lineup …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270717108
… I’ll bet Jr will get a day off on the 29th, doncha think?
Down on the Farm … Yefri (the Great) was *great* again today …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2007_07_17_pdrrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&did=milb
… 3 doubles and a single in 5 ABs!
Lots going on at the San Antonion Missions game tonight …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_07_17_sanaax_friaax_1
… Antonelli with a hit … Chase with a hit and a walk … Hundley with HR #16 … Leblanc getting touch’d a bit …
You don’t see 1-hitters in A-ball very often …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_07_17_cliafx_ftwafx_1
… tell us about Faris, PF?
An interesting look at the signing status of Padres’ 3rd round pick Tommy Toledo …
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/07/17/Sports/Gators_looking_better.shtml
9: Allegedly, he was also asked if he’d ever get tossed from a game for arguing balls and strikes. Khalil promptly responded that it would never happen, since he would have to know where the strike zone was to argue the call.
Amazing catch for OG.!!!!!!!!!
What a catch by OG! That’s why he stays out in RF!
OT … an interesting look at the Astros trade talk …
http://www.statesman.com/sports/content/sports/stories/other/06/30/0630bohls.html
… between Jennings and Loretta and Burke, they have some interesting players “available” …
Jakes 1st inning …
Pitches-strikes – J Peavy 13-10.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Peavy 0-3.
Batters faced – J Peavy 4.
How exactly did Beltran double on a ground ball to NOG?
21: It kicked off the bag at first.
I just noticed the bold move Bud has made in the lineup … KK batting 7th … ahead of Bocachica (who’s sub’ing for Cameron in CF) … eh, it’s a start up the order for KK …
That’s the kind of thing we see from Adrian
#21: Damn thing hit the First base just so that it went right over Adrian’s head.
OT … Phils get a run in top of 1st @ LA …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270717119
16: yes, he said that as well. He said there have been times he’s felt like arguing, but when he went and looked at it later he saw the pitch really was a strike so he was glad that he hadn’t said anything.
Interesting that Black has Bocachica out in center field and Bradley in left, instead of seeing how Bradley plays center in Petco. Probably makes more sense for keeping Bradley healthy this year though.
Aparently Bud didnt get the memo about Marcus…
wow that was a goofy hit
Antonelli is now 2 for 4 with a HR
26 … make that 2-0
#31 and Hundley hit his second of the night
31/33 … see link to box score at 13 …
32 … make that 3-0!
Oh JAKE, that was pretty
Jake thru 2 …
Pitches-strikes – O Hernandez 14-8; J Peavy 28-22.
Ground balls-fly balls – O Hernandez 0-3; J Peavy 1-3.
Batters faced – O Hernandez 4; J Peavy 8.
35: Just giving an update
It’s good to hear Antonelli is still hitting for power after leaving the cozy confines of the Cal League.
Uh oh. Phils are sending JD Durbin and his 13.50 ERA to the mound against the Dodgers.
39: He is just plain hitting, its great to see it
Heckuva play by Adrian to avoid Jake and make the tag on El Duque.
Jake is gonna get hurt playing defense this year before he gets hurt pitching haha
40 … his ERA is now down to 12.27 … even he can get Pierre out most of the time!
Wow, Durbin shuts the Dodgers out for one inning lowering his ERA to 12.27 and comes back and leads off the next inning with a hit!
Jake thru 3 …
Pitches-strikes – O Hernandez 22-14; J Peavy 37-27.
Ground balls-fly balls – O Hernandez 2-3; J Peavy 2-5.
Batters faced – O Hernandez 7; J Peavy 11.
44: Knowing the Padres, when he pitches against Jake he will throw 6 shut out innings. Hopefully Jake will throw 7
I’m off to go see Transformers. Give ‘em hell boys!
45 … Hendrickson’s line for LA so far … 1 IP, 7 H, 3 ERs (and counting) … yow!
Steve From Boston pointed me to this nice little article about how Tony’s doing headed into the biggest day of his (baseball) life …
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/07/17/sports/professional/20_79_017_16_07.txt
Impressive job by the Phillies of loading the bases with their 3-4-5 hitters coming up and no outs and scoring 0 runs.
#50: Nick Canepa had a pretty good artical in today’s SD U-T as well.
51: They must share our hitting coach
Dude, Jake, stop falling behind and walking people.
Milledge seems overmatched by Jake’s slider.
Geez, how many pitches did Jake throw that inning?
52 … thanks for the pointer … here’s a link …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/canepa/20070717-9999-1s17canepa.html
LM
56: 30.
Jake thru 4 …
Pitches-strikes – O Hernandez 34-23; J Peavy 67-44.
Ground balls-fly balls – O Hernandez 4-3; J Peavy 2-6.
Batters faced – O Hernandez 10; J Peavy 17.
… that’d be 30 pitches in the 4th
Can Marcus just sit down and we just start the inning with 1 out?
Gonzo is back
60 … I think I’d rather have the pitcher actually throw the 1 pitch … every little bit helps!
we need a Greeney moment here
Bradley IW’d? What’s that all about?
62: Ha ha true, maybe the pitcher just throws 3 strikes and marcus can swing, that way if there are runners on we wont get a DP
Khalil against Orlando Hernandez seems like a really bad matchup.
64: El Duque kills righties, lefties no so much…
7: GY, garbage stat? I think that’s a little harsh. OPS is very indicative of the quality of a player’s plate performance, and the adjustments to OPS+ make it an even better measure. It’s hardly a garbage stat, imo. It’s important to understand what it measures and how you can make use of it, but that is true of any stat. OPS and OPS+ are far better measures of plate performance than the oft quoted Triple Crown stats.
9: Actually, Mike, that’s very close to what OPS+ is. It doesn’t take it to the level of position, but it IS a measure of how far above average a player’s OPS is, normed for park and league factors. 100 is league average.
Khalil is finally starting to take pitches here and there.
68 … I’m with you, Pat … “garbage stat” is too harsh … I’m a fan of OPS … an even bigger fan of OPS+ … I like the simplicity …
D-backs lose … 3-2 to Brewers!
Thanks LM. By the way, I’d like to know how many other baseball blogs have fans participating in the IGD from as far away as Kuwait. Ducknsnorts rules!
This is the first time this season I’ve been up early enough to get in on the IGD.
Well that sucked. Weak outs while ahead in the count are lame.
72 … what are you doing in Kuwait?
way to take advantage of the “leadoff” double guys
Wow, Mike Thompson sucks tonight …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_07_17_poraaa_lvgaaa_1
… Sledge with a hit …
Wow, se are just piss poor agaist stealing babes
77 … huh?
74: Working, My Man, working.
Hey, just got here
Why no Cameron (Mike) ?
Thanks, all
35 … make that 5-0!
haha sorry I typed that while watching the tv… Everyone steals on us, pretty easily, is what I meant
#68: I should preface this by noting that I like OPS and OPS+, and use both quite often.
That said, OPS is garbage in the sense that the formula ((H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+SF+HBP))+((1B+2*2B+3*3B+4*HR)/AB)) doesn’t really measure anything. Of course, it’s better than the triple crown stats because it gives us a rough idea of a player’s ability to reach base and drive the ball, but what the heck does that denominator even mean?
OPS is a garbage stat that happens to be useful.
#72: Pat, do you know HM2 Ben Johnston?
77, 78: I think you are saying that even a baby could steal against us?
79 … appreciate the work … and having you check in here!
80: Rest
#80: He’s just getting the night off.
85 … maybe “duque” means “baby” in cuba?
I want the April/May version of Jake back…
81 … make it 6-0 … Hendrickson’s line now reads 3 IPs, 11 Hs …
85: Pretty much… while Barrett is slightly better at throwing guys out than Bard, he is still not “good” at it and he has trouble keeping balls in the glove or in front of him more than Bard does.
#86: Ditto. Glad you could join us tonight, Pat.
Wow, Peavy looks really bad tonight. I really hope his biceps thing isn’t more serious. Black’s gotta get him out of here now. Giving up hits to the pitcher and Valentin are two really bad signs.
He didnt look that bad there. It just looks like he is laboring, he needs to throw more first pitch strikes.
91 … 8-0 … and counting!
83: I guess I’m just not reading you, Geoff. Hear’s how I see it: we know OBP correlates very highly with runs scored; we also know SLG correlates very highly, but not quite as well as OBP, with runs scored. By adding OBP and SLG together you get OPS, which correlates even better than OBP to runs scored. Hence, a player’s OPS is an excellent measure of offensive performance or how much a player’s offense correlates to runs scored. I don’t see how that’s garbage. Scoring runs is the name of the game.
Thru 5 …
Pitches-strikes – O Hernandez 55-33; J Peavy 93-61.
Ground balls-fly balls – O Hernandez 5-5; J Peavy 3-7.
Batters faced – O Hernandez 15; J Peavy 23.
… I’ve seen enough of Jake for the night …
84: No, I don’t know anyone by that name.
86: Thanks, LM; that’s very kind of you to say. I always check in, but it’s very rare I get to enjoy this sort of interaction. It sure is nice to be up when y’all are!
95:
I dunno, man, 94 pitches through 5 innings? And a hit by El Duque, who’s 40 and, you know, a pitcher? Obviously Jake’s always had a stretch where he struggles, but I worry that the biceps problem is affecting his motion, which may have a cascade effect on his elbow/shoulder, etc.
93: Thanks a lot, GY. You know the only place I’d rather be than a Ducksnorts IGD is a Ducksnorts get together at a ball game!
97 … we need more people like you, Pat, in places like Kuwait … you sound like a guy that makes the world a better place to live!
#99: Thanks bro. It’s my brother-in-law. His 3rd deployment. First two with the Marines in Iraq. This one in Kuwait. Just thought I’d ask.
The moment of truth … who’s in the on-deck circle?
Nice thing Cameron’s on the bench. He’s been slumping while Bocachica’s been playing so well lately. And we’re only playing, like, the first place team in the NL, so why not rest our regulars. Sorry to be so negative, but Boca’s been clueless both times up.
Always nice to see a pitcher field his position.
Jake thru 6 …
Pitches-strikes – O Hernandez 76-44; J Peavy 104-68.
Ground balls-fly balls – O Hernandez 5-7; J Peavy 5-8.
Batters faced – O Hernandez 19; J Peavy 26.
… OK, then!
100: I hear ya. I am just trying to be optimistic about it and hoping this is a bad stretch because he still has majority good innings recently, just some struggles.
Meanwhile K-Cam warms up in the pen…
OT … “you know who” with a 2-run shot …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270717111
(notice I’m not naming names
)
102:Are you trying to butter me up for a trade in the DS ESPN league?
Giving up 3 runs to one of the best teams in the league isnt a terrible outing. If this is Jake being “bad” then I am ok with that, its our offense that needs to pull out a win when a team only scores 3 runs against us.
David Freese with dinger #14 tonight for the STORM …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_07_17_lesafa_lncafa_1
#97: I’m not explaining it well. Read this (see esp. the discussion below “Creating Metrics”):
http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2007/03/29/general-theories-on-the-study-of-baseball/
OPS doesn’t “gnaw at me” the way it does that author, but he makes a good point. Despite its flaws, I use the metric anyway because a) it’s still useful and b) it’s very easy to calculate.
For the type of analysis I do, ease of use generally is more important than extreme precision. It’s like people who overclock their computers. Hey, I’m just trying to read my email…
At this moment in time, we have one regular starter with a .239 average, one with a .238 average, and one with a .237 average.
The next three up are one regular starter with a .264 average, one with a .263 average, and one with a .261 average.
The other two regulars are batting .288 and .306 (with very limited at bats)
Bench averages: .200, .204, .206, .245, and .256
Looks like a playoff team to me!
110 … sure, what you got in mind? I can use *all* the help I can get!
109: Rhymes with rust?
109,
Yeah, Cust has certainly made the most of it. But I’d still rather have Bradley. Cust is brutal defensively – and would be a nightmare in Petco – and I don’t think he will keep up hitting forever (although he’s done really well for far longer than I would have ever guessed). I think he’s having his career year and will probably bounce around for the next few. Just a guess. He has old player skills that tend to not age well. (See: Mark Bellhorn)
#114
Come on man. Give me any statistic except batting average. Evaluating a player’s usefulness with batting average is impossible. Give me any other stat – OBP, SLG, RBI, Runs scored, run differential (The Pads have the best RD in the NL, which is the very best indicator of team wins) – anything but batting average, which is a useless stat by itself.
117: I hope you are wrong just cause i always liked the guy, I just thought he was an AL player.
103: Hey, TD, he sounds like a Devil Doc (aka Corpsman). Is that right? If so, I’ll bet he works at the TMC, which is right around the corner from where I’m at. I’ll try to stop by there and ask about him, tell him you said hello. Take care, my brother.
Re OPS: Another thing to note about OPS is that it undervalues players with high obp’s. All OPS are therefore not created equal. A line of .250/.320/.440 is not the same, in terms of run production, as a .250/.370/.390. However, by OPS, you would figure those two players would be equal (as the OPS is .760 in both cases).
I think when compared to RBI, batting average, runs scored, etc OPS is not garbage. When compared to things like linear weights, it kind of is. That being said, it’s still pretty darn good, and OPS+ is even better.
118: Come on man you knock the good old fashioned batting average. BA is useful when everyone is that low haha. Is their RD still the best I thought they werent anymore since July was so bad…?
How is that Jose Valentin (with his .288 OBP) draws a walk in front of Carlos Beltran … that’s the best evidence I’ve ever seen for the concept of “protection” being meaningless … and it’s a pretty hefty red-flag for KCamy …
Gotta say, K-Cam is making a case for higher-leverage situations. His stuff really moves
123 … red flag lowered as KCamy whiff’s Beltran
He needs to pitch more. When Brocail comes in, I just wonder why its not K-Cam
#120: Yeah Pat, Devil Doc. Thanks shipmate. And if you see him, tell him his wife and kids miss him. They went to a Padre game with us on July 3rd.
6-pitch inning for Hernandez. I know he “owns” us but this is absurd. He’s a 40-year-old junkballer. I hate games like this!
My point is that when our strength is in our pitching, we should be trying to drive up the other starter’s pitch count to get into their bully. But we don’t. I don’t know if it is an aggressive approach that Magadan teaches or what. But our poor hitters (besides OG) don’t seem to take a lot of pitches. Last inning, it was 5 pitches total.
ummm, I guess maybe I jinxed him. Not looking good here….
half ass throw there by Brian
This just in: It is bad to walk the lead-off hitter of an inning when in a close game.
Kouz has flashed some good leather this series
I just keep telling myself that this is a marathon and not a sprint. And I keep the faith.
On the bright side, the dodgers are losing…
127: Will do, TD. A ballgame in the good old USA the day before Independence Day. Sniff… It doesn’t get any better than that!
Oh wait, Geoff is supposed to be the ‘glass half full dude.’
#137: Hey now, that’s “glass half dude” to you.
Auto-out
OT … last night up here on the Mariners radio station, they were gushing about this being the best bullpen in Mariner’s history … tonight …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270717112
… 3 runs in the 6th + 5 in the 7th … it happens to all pens!
140: Thats got to mostly be based on how freaking good Putz is
If any 5 batters in a Padre lineup could score, it’d be these 5 …
A. Gonzalez
M. Bradley
K. Greene
M. Barrett
K. Kouzmanoff
… and, indeed, that’s who’s going to bat in the bottom of the 9th!
How’s that for ya, glass half dude!
#138: LOL! And I’m the one that tagged you with that moniker! Sorry GY.
Wow, I never thought Marcus Giles would look this bad for such a long period of time —I really liked the signing and thought after a fast start that Marcus would play at a above average level. At the very least, how much longer does Buddy stick with him in the #2 hole ?
144 … how can we help Bud stop the madness that is NOG in the #2 spot in the lineup?
acquire Mark Loretta?
146 … how can we do that? That’s something only KT can do … I’m talking about “we” litterally … call XX … stage a protest at Petco … write letters to the Padres, to the UT … what can we do? We know what’s best/right, right?
109 … Andrew Brown also appeared in that A’s game … didn’t get any of the 3 batters he faced out …
I guess the wrong half dude was in the glass?