Padres Prospect Report

by Peter Friberg

The staff over at MadFriars.com visit each of the Padres’ minor league teams a few times every season. Each time they make a visit, we’ll ask a few questions and get their perspective on various topics germane to that team. By the way, if you like Padres’ minor league coverage, you must check them out at MadFriars.com.

This latest installment is from John Conniff, who just got back from the Padres Low-A affiliate, Fort Wayne [Ed note: Due to extreme lameness on the part of yours truly, this is running very late; apologies to all.]:

PPR: Cedric Hunter’s walk/strikeout rates are good (23/37), not great (41/25) like last year. Is it a function of a more difficult league, is he just struggling, or is he not quite the prospect a bunch of allowed ourselves to believe, or all of the above?

MF: I think you hit it all on the head. One, he is in a much more difficult league — the Arizona League is really little more than glorified spring training scrimmages with the second-tier prospects from the draft. In the Midwest League he’s 19 and playing against guys three to four years older with much more experience, but he’s been doing pretty well, especially when you consider the Padres have been tinkering with his swing and he’s on pace to play more games than he ever has in his life. According to his hitting coach, Bob Skube, the power will come, but for right now its just a case of learning how to make consistent contact and recognize pitches. Skube has been working very hard to iron out some small mechanical flaws in his swing and once he gets a little more comfortable, more will fly out of the yard as you see in batting practice. The Padres have been very impressed with his mental work ethic — he’s constantly analyzing, and attempting to implement, how to improve.

Defensively his arm is improving since he injured it pitching in high school last year and he has very good range. Really sometimes if you don’t watch carefully it appears that he is loafing, but he gets such good jumps on the ball with his speed, he just glides into catches.

I do think we all went a little overboard in our projections of him; really it’s just too soon to tell. I think he will have a good year in the Cal League next year, but a big part of his value is on his ability to stay in center field and hit with a little more pop than his current slugging percentage (.350).

One interesting tidbit about Hunter is he does seem to like the pressure; in Fort Wayne I saw him go to the opposite field with a single to tie the game in the ninth inning with two outs and he’s hitting .440 in the ninth inning.

PPR: Kyler Burke is scuffling (71 strikeouts in 60 games) — though he’s actually been okay in June (.260/.373/.360). Are the Padres going to leave him in Fort Wayne or send him back to Eugene? What should they do?

[Ed note: Burke since has been traded to the Chicago Cubs as part of the deal that brought Michael Barrett to San Diego.]

MF: I thought the same about Burke as you before I went to Fort Wayne — really anyone who looks at the numbers would, which is a big reason why we try to see these guys play in person.

Burke played one of the better right fields that I have seen in a long time and he is very athletic, a three-sport star in high school including the winner of a local slam dunk contest.

After bottoming out in May, he’s having his best month so far in June — .260/.373/.360 — which aren’t great numbers, but a lot better than what he was doing. He’s got a nice, easy, compact swing that when he squares the ball it travels. His two big problems at the plate this year have been the Padres have really tweaked his high school aluminum bat swing and have put in place a better approach for the pro game. Also, like Kevin Kouzmanoff, he’s starting to understand what his strike zone is, and it’s not only about swinging at strikes, but his strikes. You could literally see the improvement day by day. He told me after Friday’s game this is the first time he’s starting to feel the correct instincts at the plate, what his weight shift should be, recognizing pitches and having an idea of what he can do up there, and just as importantly what he can’t.

When you talk to the coaches they will all say he was hitting very well in the instructs [instructional league] and spring training, it was just a question of him applying it to games. Even though he’s struggled, he’s kept his head up and keeps improving everyday. As they will frequently tell you, mantra like, this level is about development and they believe Burke’s struggles at this level are going to help him down the road more than if they left him in extended spring training. The Padres decided he was better off struggling for the first half in Fort Wayne than not being challenged in extended spring training. I think he’s going to have a good second half.

Remember, as with Hunter, both these players are high school guys and are going to struggle some. With each of them its more of a question of trying to harness their high talent ceilings than with some college guys that are trying to see if their current levels are enough to take them to the big leagues. All of us want to see the Padres draft more young guys with big ceilings who potentially have bigger upsides than many safe picks. Both Burke and Hunter are those types of players, but require a little more time and patience.

PPR: That pitching staff doesn’t excite me. And the players I like the most (Aaron Breit and Orlando Lara) are the ones doing the worst or they’re injured (Andrew Miller). Who else should we be paying attention to?

MF: The Padres sent Lara out to the Mexican League, and Drew Miller just came off of the DL and pitched on Sunday [June 17] (did pretty well in 3 innings of limited work, 0 hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks). Both Miller and Breit have very big upsides — both throw consistently in the low-90s — but they are also still learning how to pitch, developing secondary pitches, repeating their deliveries and learning that if you leave the ball up, no matter how hard you throw it, it’s usually coming back at you. The coaches believe that Breit has improved this past month, even though the stats don’t show it, but Miller may be a little ahead right now. Again, with players this young, high school or JC, usually the first half of the season is tough for them, but the whole reason for the minors is to develop young talent, not to win games. Both Miller and Breit have the talent, its just a question of if they can control it.

I like the closer R.J. Rodriguez quite a bit. He’s listed at 5’11″, but only if he’s wearing a really high pair of cleats that day — he’s really closer to 5’9 1/2″. He throws a fastball, change and a developing slider. His fastball comes in consistently at 92 or 93 mph from a three-quarters arm slot and really moves; his changeup, with pretty much the same motion, was in the low-80s. He’s fearless and cocky on the mound. (The Wizards staff told me this is what he threw, I saw it from the press box the first night I was there and still didn’t believe the times. It wasn’t until I went down and sat next to a few scouts and read the numbers off of the gun that I found out he threw this hard.)

He’s saved 14 out of 16 games; his ERA is high because of two bad outings, but otherwise he has been lights out — he could be the best closer in the system.

PPR: Which 2007 draftees should we expect to see in Fort Wayne before the end of the season?

MF: That is a tough question because from everybody we talked to, the Padres are going to send all of their draft picks to the short-season leagues. First-round pick Nick Schmidt has thrown quite a few innings, so I have a tough time seeing the Padres push him to Fort Wayne right now — maybe a game or two at the end of the season. If I had to guess, it could be outfielder Kellen Kulbacki — he’s an advanced college bat and could have the type of year in Eugene that David Freese and Chad Huffman had last year — or the catcher from Oregon State, Mitch Canham; the catching corps is a little weak for the Wizards.

PPR: One last question: where does Geoff go to eat in Fort Wayne when he’s stopping by from his World Tour?

MF: Go downtown. I would go to Coney Island Weiner — great steamed hot dogs, burgers and chili with unbelievably low prices — you can really order all three, a Coke and still get out of there for under $7. All the Cokes are in bottles, an added plus. For breakfast try Cindy’s Diner, a real old-fashioned diner experience with great breakfasts, get the “garbage,” kind of a deluxe scrambled eggs and save room for the Chocolate Pie.

[Ed note: Okay, now that is information I can use!]

. . .

You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.

AAA

Craig Stansberry: 4 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 1 RBI; 3 2B – played 3B & SS
Jack Cassel: 6.0 IP, 15 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR – yikes!

AA

No games scheduled

High-A

Brian Giles: 2 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB
Jose Lobaton: 4 AB, 0 R, 3 H, 0 RBI; SO

Low-A

Aaron Breit: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 SO, 1 HR – there ya go!
R.J. Rodriguez: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR

Short Season-A

Kellen Kulbacki: 3 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; SO
John Hussey: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR

Rookie

Yefri Carvajal: 3 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; 2B, 2 BB
Jeudy Valdez: 5 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2B, SO
Orlando Lara: 2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

“The Jays are now willing to listen on [Troy] Glaus, one rival general manager says, a notable development for the Padres, Dodgers and Angels,” writes Ken Rosenthal.

Glaus is exactly the type of player Alderson/Towers would go for. He’s a right-handed power hitter (who could shift Kouzmanoff to left field — Kouz did take fly balls in the outfield during his few days off) in his prime (30 years old), whose contract is reasonable (in dollars and length: $10.75 million this year, $12.75 million in ’08, with a $11.25 million option in ’09), according to the FoxSports article.

This rumor may have serious legs.

[Ed note: I still wish we'd signed Glaus when we drafted him back in '94 out of Carlsbad High.]

Brian Giles taking walks, what a shock…

[Ed note: Both walks came on full counts; the second involved at least a couple of foul balls. The single was a sharp grounder that bounced over the diving first baseman's head. The out was a first-pitch fly ball to the warning track in right-center -- see photo above; Giles made pretty solid contact despite being jammed on the pitch.]

Good to see Kellen making his Padre organizational debut.

Denis Savage at MadFriars.com has a serious man-crush on Yefri Carvajal. I see why.

Another extra-base hit for Jeudy Valdez… In three games, Jeudy has three doubles and two triples.