Nothing Night
Tue, Jun 26, 2007
by Geoff Young
I was up at Elsinore on Monday night watching Brian Giles begin his rehab assignment, so I missed most of the Padres game (boxscore | recap). Actually, “missed” might not be the right word, but whatever.
The Storm, meanwhile, held their “Nothing Night” promotion, which is one of the more unusual events I’ve attended. Basically, you show up to the ballpark and it’s first come, first served. Parking is free, admission is free. All the concession stands are closed (you bring in your own food and non-alcoholic beverages), the store is closed, there is no PA announcer, there are no mascots. It’s just you and a baseball game.
Pretty cool, but very strange. Anyway, in honor of Nothing Night, my portion of today’s post will consist pretty much of nothing. Now over to Peter…
by Peter Friberg
The staff over at MadFriars.com visit each of the Padres’ minor league teams a few times every season. Each time they make a visit, we’ll ask a few questions and get their perspective on various topics germane to that team. By the way, if you like Padres’ minor league coverage, you must check them out at MadFriars.com.
This latest installment is from John Conniff, who just got back from the Padres Low-A affiliate, Fort Wayne [Ed note: Due to extreme lameness on the part of yours truly, this is running very late; apologies to all.]:
PPR: Cedric Hunter’s walk/strikeout rates are good (23/37), not great (41/25) like last year. Is it a function of a more difficult league, is he just struggling, or is he not quite the prospect a bunch of allowed ourselves to believe, or all of the above?
MF: I think you hit it all on the head. One, he is in a much more difficult league — the Arizona League is really little more than glorified spring training scrimmages with the second-tier prospects from the draft. In the Midwest League he’s 19 and playing against guys three to four years older with much more experience, but he’s been doing pretty well, especially when you consider the Padres have been tinkering with his swing and he’s on pace to play more games than he ever has in his life. According to his hitting coach, Bob Skube, the power will come, but for right now its just a case of learning how to make consistent contact and recognize pitches. Skube has been working very hard to iron out some small mechanical flaws in his swing and once he gets a little more comfortable, more will fly out of the yard as you see in batting practice. The Padres have been very impressed with his mental work ethic — he’s constantly analyzing, and attempting to implement, how to improve.
Defensively his arm is improving since he injured it pitching in high school last year and he has very good range. Really sometimes if you don’t watch carefully it appears that he is loafing, but he gets such good jumps on the ball with his speed, he just glides into catches.
I do think we all went a little overboard in our projections of him; really it’s just too soon to tell. I think he will have a good year in the Cal League next year, but a big part of his value is on his ability to stay in center field and hit with a little more pop than his current slugging percentage (.350).
One interesting tidbit about Hunter is he does seem to like the pressure; in Fort Wayne I saw him go to the opposite field with a single to tie the game in the ninth inning with two outs and he’s hitting .440 in the ninth inning.
PPR: Kyler Burke is scuffling (71 strikeouts in 60 games) — though he’s actually been okay in June (.260/.373/.360). Are the Padres going to leave him in Fort Wayne or send him back to Eugene? What should they do?
[Ed note: Burke since has been traded to the Chicago Cubs as part of the deal that brought Michael Barrett to San Diego.]
MF: I thought the same about Burke as you before I went to Fort Wayne — really anyone who looks at the numbers would, which is a big reason why we try to see these guys play in person.
Burke played one of the better right fields that I have seen in a long time and he is very athletic, a three-sport star in high school including the winner of a local slam dunk contest.
After bottoming out in May, he’s having his best month so far in June — .260/.373/.360 — which aren’t great numbers, but a lot better than what he was doing. He’s got a nice, easy, compact swing that when he squares the ball it travels. His two big problems at the plate this year have been the Padres have really tweaked his high school aluminum bat swing and have put in place a better approach for the pro game. Also, like Kevin Kouzmanoff, he’s starting to understand what his strike zone is, and it’s not only about swinging at strikes, but his strikes. You could literally see the improvement day by day. He told me after Friday’s game this is the first time he’s starting to feel the correct instincts at the plate, what his weight shift should be, recognizing pitches and having an idea of what he can do up there, and just as importantly what he can’t.
When you talk to the coaches they will all say he was hitting very well in the instructs [instructional league] and spring training, it was just a question of him applying it to games. Even though he’s struggled, he’s kept his head up and keeps improving everyday. As they will frequently tell you, mantra like, this level is about development and they believe Burke’s struggles at this level are going to help him down the road more than if they left him in extended spring training. The Padres decided he was better off struggling for the first half in Fort Wayne than not being challenged in extended spring training. I think he’s going to have a good second half.
Remember, as with Hunter, both these players are high school guys and are going to struggle some. With each of them its more of a question of trying to harness their high talent ceilings than with some college guys that are trying to see if their current levels are enough to take them to the big leagues. All of us want to see the Padres draft more young guys with big ceilings who potentially have bigger upsides than many safe picks. Both Burke and Hunter are those types of players, but require a little more time and patience.
PPR: That pitching staff doesn’t excite me. And the players I like the most (Aaron Breit and Orlando Lara) are the ones doing the worst or they’re injured (Andrew Miller). Who else should we be paying attention to?
MF: The Padres sent Lara out to the Mexican League, and Drew Miller just came off of the DL and pitched on Sunday [June 17] (did pretty well in 3 innings of limited work, 0 hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks). Both Miller and Breit have very big upsides — both throw consistently in the low-90s — but they are also still learning how to pitch, developing secondary pitches, repeating their deliveries and learning that if you leave the ball up, no matter how hard you throw it, it’s usually coming back at you. The coaches believe that Breit has improved this past month, even though the stats don’t show it, but Miller may be a little ahead right now. Again, with players this young, high school or JC, usually the first half of the season is tough for them, but the whole reason for the minors is to develop young talent, not to win games. Both Miller and Breit have the talent, its just a question of if they can control it.
I like the closer R.J. Rodriguez quite a bit. He’s listed at 5′11″, but only if he’s wearing a really high pair of cleats that day — he’s really closer to 5′9 1/2″. He throws a fastball, change and a developing slider. His fastball comes in consistently at 92 or 93 mph from a three-quarters arm slot and really moves; his changeup, with pretty much the same motion, was in the low-80s. He’s fearless and cocky on the mound. (The Wizards staff told me this is what he threw, I saw it from the press box the first night I was there and still didn’t believe the times. It wasn’t until I went down and sat next to a few scouts and read the numbers off of the gun that I found out he threw this hard.)
He’s saved 14 out of 16 games; his ERA is high because of two bad outings, but otherwise he has been lights out — he could be the best closer in the system.
PPR: Which 2007 draftees should we expect to see in Fort Wayne before the end of the season?
MF: That is a tough question because from everybody we talked to, the Padres are going to send all of their draft picks to the short-season leagues. First-round pick Nick Schmidt has thrown quite a few innings, so I have a tough time seeing the Padres push him to Fort Wayne right now — maybe a game or two at the end of the season. If I had to guess, it could be outfielder Kellen Kulbacki — he’s an advanced college bat and could have the type of year in Eugene that David Freese and Chad Huffman had last year — or the catcher from Oregon State, Mitch Canham; the catching corps is a little weak for the Wizards.
PPR: One last question: where does Geoff go to eat in Fort Wayne when he’s stopping by from his World Tour?
MF: Go downtown. I would go to Coney Island Weiner — great steamed hot dogs, burgers and chili with unbelievably low prices — you can really order all three, a Coke and still get out of there for under $7. All the Cokes are in bottles, an added plus. For breakfast try Cindy’s Diner, a real old-fashioned diner experience with great breakfasts, get the “garbage,” kind of a deluxe scrambled eggs and save room for the Chocolate Pie.
[Ed note: Okay, now that is information I can use!]
. . .
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
AAA
Craig Stansberry: 4 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 1 RBI; 3 2B - played 3B & SS
Jack Cassel: 6.0 IP, 15 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR - yikes!
AA
No games scheduled
High-A
Brian Giles: 2 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB
Jose Lobaton: 4 AB, 0 R, 3 H, 0 RBI; SO
Low-A
Aaron Breit: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 SO, 1 HR - there ya go!
R.J. Rodriguez: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR
Short Season-A
Kellen Kulbacki: 3 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; SO
John Hussey: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR
Rookie
Yefri Carvajal: 3 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; 2B, 2 BB
Jeudy Valdez: 5 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2B, SO
Orlando Lara: 2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
“The Jays are now willing to listen on [Troy] Glaus, one rival general manager says, a notable development for the Padres, Dodgers and Angels,” writes Ken Rosenthal.
Glaus is exactly the type of player Alderson/Towers would go for. He’s a right-handed power hitter (who could shift Kouzmanoff to left field — Kouz did take fly balls in the outfield during his few days off) in his prime (30 years old), whose contract is reasonable (in dollars and length: $10.75 million this year, $12.75 million in ‘08, with a $11.25 million option in ‘09), according to the FoxSports article.
This rumor may have serious legs.
[Ed note: I still wish we'd signed Glaus when we drafted him back in '94 out of Carlsbad High.]
Brian Giles taking walks, what a shock…
[Ed note: Both walks came on full counts; the second involved at least a couple of foul balls. The single was a sharp grounder that bounced over the diving first baseman's head. The out was a first-pitch fly ball to the warning track in right-center -- see photo above; Giles made pretty solid contact despite being jammed on the pitch.]
Good to see Kellen making his Padre organizational debut.
Denis Savage at MadFriars.com has a serious man-crush on Yefri Carvajal. I see why.
Another extra-base hit for Jeudy Valdez… In three games, Jeudy has three doubles and two triples.
Thanks, Peter. Padres and Giants again tonight at 7:15 p.m. PT. Assume the rest to be obvious…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
June 26, 2007 at 8:04 am
Nothing Night sounds like an interesting promotion and a soberingly accurate depiction of the Padres’ offense last nite.
I think the biggest problem for us right now is Adrian is struggling big time at the plate, which is really hurting the offense. Although Khalil and Cameron are having better months, Adrian is really the crux of our offense. When he falters, we tend to slowly collapse like a flan in a cupboard (much like the Austro-Hungarian empire).
I’m not sure what it will take to get us going, but losing 4 of the last 6 series and being one loss away from another series (while still having to face Zito and Cain) doesn’t exactly give me a warm fuzzy.
June 26, 2007 at 8:46 am
What would it take to get Glaus? That is exactly the kind of deadline deals that we have been promised over the years and it would be awesome if it would come through this year.
Nothing night sounds really interesting could you imagine it at petco?
I think Adrian is starting to burn out he needs a night off where he does not even have to come to the ballpark just sit at home and watch bad TV and relax.
June 26, 2007 at 8:48 am
Isn’t Brian Giles a little old to be considered a prospect? I mean I love his on base skills, but at this point in his career I don’t think he’ll develop the sort of power needed to be a corner OF in the bigs.
June 26, 2007 at 8:50 am
http://www.coolstandings.com/b.....gs.asp?i=1
Kinda cool at coolstandings today … the odds of the NL West leaders go up as you go down the standings …
Ariz 32%
LA 46%
SD 84%
… ie. KEEP THE FAITH!
June 26, 2007 at 8:53 am
Re: 3 yeah but he got skrewed out of the futures game this year, he could have displayed his big league talent against the worlds top prospects.
June 26, 2007 at 8:56 am
Re. Glaus: I have no idea what the Jays would want (and with the WC, they’re not out of the playoff hunt yet by any means), but if he were acquired, I think it would make more sense to keep Kouz as a guy to give him a day off, a much needed RH pinch hitter and only an occasional starter in the OF. He’s having a tough enough time learning to hit ML pitching without having to learn a new position, too. He could make the transition over the winter without so much pressure.
Boy, it would be great to have Glaus in the lineup and Kouz available off the bench this year down the stretch, and then to have both of them in the lineup next year full time.
June 26, 2007 at 8:58 am
Steve, word!
June 26, 2007 at 8:59 am
One of the nice things about Glaus is that he can play SS in a pinch.
June 26, 2007 at 9:00 am
#2: I’m not holding my breath for Glaus. Meanwhile, what we really need is to get some production out of 2B/LF. Since May 1, NOG and Cruz have been brutal:
http://tinyurl.com/298xup
Cameron, Adrian, and Kouz have been carrying this club offensively the past two months.
June 26, 2007 at 9:04 am
I would hate to have Kouz waste away on the bench! Glaus is the exact hitter we need but just at the wrong position. It’s a tough call I guess but I just would hate to see Kouz get burried on the bench he needs to work through a full season IMO. Has Glaus ever played LF? I know he has spent some time at 1st.
June 26, 2007 at 9:04 am
Hey Geoff don’t know if you caught Sports Center. But our favorite pal John Kruk gave the Padres the kiss of death. According to him “The Padres are the team to beat in the NL West”.
June 26, 2007 at 9:14 am
#11: Thanks for the update. I think with Willie McCovey in our rotation, we’re pretty unstoppable.
June 26, 2007 at 9:15 am
#12: No problem, that’s what I’m here for.
June 26, 2007 at 9:16 am
Re: 10 Glaus has not in the OF at the ML level, only 3B and SS.
http://www.baseball-reference......tr01.shtml
June 26, 2007 at 9:22 am
10: I agree. Its his rookie season and it much to early to give up on the guy. I have a hard time seeing this trade become a reality. Front Office isnt going to replace Kouz midseason, it would make the Barfield trade look worthless. It just doesnt see like a move they would make. If Glaus can play the OF then we might have something or maybe Kouz can play 2nd?
June 26, 2007 at 9:26 am
RE: 15 and put NOG in the OF? It looks like Kouz is going to move to LF within the next few seasons if Headly/Freese stay on track, it may not be all that bad of a move, he cant be worse than Klesko out there.
June 26, 2007 at 9:30 am
16: No move Marcus to the bench… Not sure really. What makes you think they wouldnt move Headley/Freese to left instead of Kouz. They would have an easier time learning to play in the OF being in the minors. I would have a hard time moving Kouz to LF for a prospect… but thats just me.
June 26, 2007 at 9:35 am
well from every thing I have read Freese is a superior defender but then again we all heard that Kouz was a sub-par defender which we have all found is not true.
But I would imagine it would be easier for Kouz to make the move after he gets a better hold of ML pitching (which it looks like he is well on his way to doing)
June 26, 2007 at 9:36 am
also if they moved Kouz to 2B he would just be keeping the seat warm for Antonelli
June 26, 2007 at 9:37 am
Another story in the Union-Tribune today about how revenue is up, expenses are down, and we won’t spend the draft budget. On top of a bad week, at least results-wise, of baseball, that’s no fun. It’s great that the Padres are making money. It would be greater if they’d try to parley that increased money into diversifying the farm system. Or, if you’re going to crow about how much your revenues have increased, maybe explain what you’re going to do with it. Pay down that dratted debt? Probably not, it’s too nice a crutch.
Black is treating Jose Cruz like Deivi Cruz. Well, that’s not fair, he didn’t have a lot of other options with Giles hurt, but JC is a starter based on a hot beginning. I have no clue why NOG has stopped hitting, but that’s an ugly 2 month line.
Letting Kouz develop shouldn’t stand in the way of getting a player like Glaus. Trade for Troy, Kouzmanoff plays LF, 1b to give Adrian a blow, and is the “Not Silent L” right-handed pinch-hitter we’ve been looking for. But like GY said, you can’t hold your breath, Toronto doesn’t need to move him.
June 26, 2007 at 9:41 am
Re: 20 Toranto will wait untill the deadline to move him if for nothing else to drive up the price from desperate teams on the cusp (see the dodgers)
June 26, 2007 at 9:43 am
Glaus does not seem to fit. The Pads are likely looking for a rental and I do not see them picking up a guy that blocks their best young hitters. Kouz may not be setting the world on fire since he came back but if they got Glaus, Kouz goes to AAA.
June 26, 2007 at 9:51 am
22: Your right this move doesnt fit, and i really dont think it will happen. We need a corner OF, lets find that and get it. 3rd is covered
June 26, 2007 at 10:02 am
Adrian needs some rest. I don’t think he’s quite healed yet from that foul ball off his foot last week.
A quote:
“Hey, I don’t have the stomach to watch our team not score runs all year. I just don’t. I can’t watch us have bad at-bats night after night. We’ve gotta get better every way we can.”
That’s Dayton Moore talking about his Royals. I could have sworn that statement applies to the Padres.
What to do about cutting into Silent L’s ABs? I still rather see Robles up here. Jose Cruz needs the rest. I don’t know why NOG is not hitting either. Maybe, he misses OG.
June 26, 2007 at 10:11 am
23: It’s hard to shop in an empty store. Dye and Dunn are the two corner OF on the market. Dye’s hurt now and isn’t all that good, Dunn is a TTO hitter in a park that may not (or may, who really knows) treat him well.
If Glaus is the best available player at a price you can pay, you get him. Kouz turns into a LF. Richie Sexson played out there for years and it didn’t cripple him.
June 26, 2007 at 10:12 am
24: Marcus didnt really hit last year either. His numbers this year are actually falling right in line with last years numbers.
June 26, 2007 at 10:14 am
26: So far he has had 1/2 the at bats he had last year. Its no coincidence how all the numbers line up nearly perfectly for him to repeat what he did last year.
http://www.baseball-reference......ma01.shtml
June 26, 2007 at 10:20 am
25: If Dye isnt hurt, his number really arent any different than Glaus and he’s a good defensive OF. We saw vs the BoSox how bad defense (putting Branyan in left is just one example) can change a game
June 26, 2007 at 10:23 am
Re: 28 I really dont think Dye is the answer, before he got hurt this year Dye has similar numbers to Greenie and Cameron this year, the last thing the pads need is a .230-.250 with spurratic power (well maybe not the last thing)
June 26, 2007 at 10:31 am
For those who want the team to pick up someone big at the trade deadline, I would encourage you to get the tape from the Padres’ pregame show yesterday, featuring an interview of Kevin Towers. He said something to the effect that other teams interested in selling are currently looking for major league ready prospects in return and that the Padres are currently thin in that area. I don’t know whether the former is true, but if the majority view posted here about the Padres’ farm system is correct, then the latter certainly is true.
The Padres apparently do not have enough quality major league prospects to deal, or at least not to compete with the Dodgers or Diamondbacks or other teams, in any proposed trade for Glaus or Dye or Dunn or whomever is the big bat of the moment. Sad, though, because this does appear to be a year where the Padres have a substantial amount of in-season financial flexibility to make a bigger contract-type deal. Perhaps the sellers can be convinced to take something else. Only time will tell.
June 26, 2007 at 10:42 am
Re: 30 KT is talking out of his ass, most teams that are selling are looking for pitching that they can control, the padres have Hensley, Brown, Cassidy, and Hampson that they can move.
June 26, 2007 at 10:43 am
31: dont forget Linebrink, he’s not under control but you know
June 26, 2007 at 10:45 am
TW would you prefer that we were the Cubs? They went out and spent big this past offseason? The fact that revenues are up and expenses are down, allows to us to be players in the trade market. Does that mean we’ll necessarily make a big trade? No, the other teams have to like what we’re offering, and other teams need to not over-bid. That said, Headley is about as sexy of a prospect as there is right now. Combine Headley w/ Ayala & a reliever and we probably have a deal…
Things are good. We’ve won 2 consecutive Division titles, we’re on pace for 90ish wins, and in the hunt for a 3rd straight. The sky is NOT falling.
June 26, 2007 at 10:55 am
25: Dye’s numbers are not that close to Glaus. The last 3 years Glaus has averaged an 864 OPS. Dye is forty points behind him even with his career year of 2006. Glaus walks more and has more power.
We could use some advanced stats that look at park factors, too.
Troy’s lifetime EQA = 295.
Dye’s lifetime EQA = 279.
Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Cameron are about 16 points of EQA apart. It’s not small.
Did anybody need the Red Sox series to see how bad defense can affect a team?
I’d rather have a pure corner OF, but if you can’t get one, or if the one you want to get has a bad leg or costs too much, then you can either do nothing or find another improvement. Glaus is another improvement.
June 26, 2007 at 10:56 am
28: Glaus is historically a much better hitter than Dye, but even if he wasn’t, Dye is hurt. I don’t think that he’s a great option for the club because of his injury status. If he wasn’t hurt, he’d be a great fit. But he is…
June 26, 2007 at 10:57 am
34: I agree that Gluas could be the fit and we could deal with Kouz in LF or, go get another OF as well and let Kouz try again next year as an OF.
June 26, 2007 at 10:59 am
33: Who said the sky is falling? You and The Fathers are like President Bush when it comes to criticism, any word of dissent is apparently intolerable.
Ah, the “Cubs” defense. No, we didn’t need to commit 5 billion dollars in payroll for the next century. Why don’t people ever bring up the Angels? Or the Cardinals, for several seasons before this one? It is possible to spend money on free agents and not have it blow up in your face.
June 26, 2007 at 11:02 am
30: That seems like an accurate assessment. Our farm system is paper-thin compared to LA and Arizona, and other teams don’t want to sell off players for kids in A ball.
June 26, 2007 at 11:05 am
GY- hope it’s not two “nothing nights” in a row. One in Lake Elsinore, the other at AT&T.
Go PADRES, Beat anybody.
June 26, 2007 at 11:05 am
37: Expanding on this point, it’s probably a bad idea for the Padres to brag about their “financial victories” in a story that runs the day we fall into 3rd place. The 2 teams in front of us also have major debt issues but have been willing to spend money. LA spends it everywhere, free agents and the farm, with mixed results at the big league level. Juan Pierre’s a bad deal, but Luis Gonzalez, Randy Wolf, and Derek Lowe have been good investments. Arizona spent big on free agents when they were dominating the NL West, now they spend big on the farm.
June 26, 2007 at 11:05 am
37: You are right. No one ever talks about the good free agents. Its not like Soriano isnt producing in Chicago.
Glaus is not the answer. We need a rental, not someone on contract for the next 3 years blocking our prospects.
June 26, 2007 at 11:08 am
41: If we’re going to give up top prospects, it wouldn’t be bad to get someone who will be here for a couple of years. Glaus is signed through this year and next year, but we would have an option for the year after at about 11M. If at that point we thought Freese was ready or we wanted to give Kouz another shot, that would work too. I’m betting that we’d have to include Headley in any deal for Glaus (or virtually any other major bat that we are interested in).
June 26, 2007 at 11:10 am
41.
Good point Soriano and Ramirez are pretty much the best offensive players at their positions in the NL and argueably MLB (A-Rod aside). Marquis and Lilly deals were silly but so far Soriano and A. Ramirez deals are looking pretty decent.
June 26, 2007 at 11:11 am
41: Glaus is only signed for 1 year after this. That’s a strange way to spend trade prospects, by deliberately buying fewer years than you could.
Every 3rd base prospect in the organization is effectively blocked now behind Kouzmanoff.
A 900 OPS hitter, no matter where he plays, could easily be the difference between making the playoffs and not. Kouzmanoff could be that bat. So could Dye, if he was healthy and had a better half-season than he usually does. Andruw Jones might work if Atlanta falls out of the race.
None of the reasons for not getting Glaus, if he’s the best player you can get, are more important than making the playoffs and having another big bat in the lineup.
June 26, 2007 at 11:18 am
31:
Cassidy doesn’t count. A journeyman coming off one decent year and hurt now.
Hensley has walked his trade value right into the tank.
Hampson’s not much of a prospect.
Brown should be interesting to some teams, but if they’re looking for relievers they’re going to ask for Meredith, Bell, Brown, and Ring. I don’t have a problem trading them, but we’re not getting good players for scraps.
June 26, 2007 at 11:24 am
43: They may have been silly but the Cubs needed SP, and they arent afraid to sign what they need. Both Lilly and Marquis have been better than Well’s has been for us this season
44: Not that strange, teams do it all the time. Before Kouz got here we didnt have 3rd base prospects. This years the 3b prospects are tearing it up but they are all years away from proving themselves in the minors. Kouz had nothing left to prove in the minors.
June 26, 2007 at 11:25 am
re 31: I would assume that Towers is speaking about position player prospects mostly. Generally speaking, you don’t get quality everyday offensive producers for a package centered around relief arms. I would also assume that most GMs are not as bad as Wayne Krivsky, a recent exception to general rule.
June 26, 2007 at 11:25 am
45: You dont think they will ask for Linebrink?
June 26, 2007 at 11:29 am
45: A team who is selling off good players is not likely to want a relief pitcher who will be a free agent in three months. You’re generally not trading your good players if you’re still in the race and need a reliever like that.
46: What’s strange is that you’d rather pay in prospects for someone who will leave the Padres after this season than for someone who could play for us another year. It’s like not buying the Super Big Gulp when it’s the same price as the regular Big Gulp.
June 26, 2007 at 11:34 am
The Yankees and Tigers would be in the mix for Linebrink but there is really no one that either team would be willing to give up that would solve the Padres offensive woes
June 26, 2007 at 11:37 am
#32, 48: I’m not clear on your position. Does Linebrink suck or is he someone that other teams might want?
June 26, 2007 at 11:42 am
re 20, 33 and 37. Regrettably, TW hasn’t recovered from being hoisted with his own petard - last week’s misanalysis of the Padres’ financial situation and failure to understand that the Forbes numbers upon which he relied in fact disproved his arguments. So, he is back again, this time to misread the UT.
Here is the link, so you can read for yourself and see how reflexive cynicism can badly color one’s perception:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
no quotes by Padres officials, no bragging by anyone, just an impression from Krasovic, and Krasovic alone, that the Padres will be making out financially from several things that have happened this season. Also, no implication by Krasovic that the Padres will sit on the money he thinks they are making, not even an implication as to how they should spend it. Feel free to draw your own conclusions as to what they should do, assuming they haven’t already spent the money elsewhere.
And while you are recovering from yet another misstep TW, could you please spare all of us with your hyperbole, ad hominems and not even remotely useful political analogies? Not a good idea to try to mix politics and sports, but I won’t respond in kind.
Even when I disagree, I enjoy your posts much more when you are calmly discussing things you appear to know, like the team’s farm system, drafting philosophy, roster construction, evaluation of prospective trades and rumors, and general statistical analysis.
June 26, 2007 at 11:53 am
52: It’s a strange prediliction of many Interneters to declare victory when they have achieved no such thing. Your laughable defense of the Padres finances rests on your declaration of ignorance as to what their finances are. “We don’t know, so therefore we must give Moores the benefit of the doubt.” Nothing about the massive tax write-offs corporations receive for debt. Nothing about hiding revenue, which artificially lowers their ability to pay for players because of that darned debt service rule. The Forbes numbers show an operating profit.
Where do you think Krasovic got his information about the Padre finances? Did he just make them up? You can see that he talked to team officials for that story from the line “a pace the club considers sustainable.” They’re called sources, Father. Learn the term.
It’s always funny when somebody gets wound up and then claims that the comment which did the winding was ineffective. You’ve complained so many times about my posting style being a detriment to the DS community. Lookee here, another mid-week discussion that matches some IGDs in length, even though my terrible old self is involved. I’d ask you point out what in my comments qualifies as ad hominem, but I’d suggest that you look up what that term means first. That’s another classic Internetism, the false accusations of personal attacks. It’s like somebody paid for you to go to a class on defending corporations through the Web, but you only stayed for the first hour.
June 26, 2007 at 12:02 pm
53: I actually think he soundly trounced your economic perception of the team last year with his discussion of EBITDA here.
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....ment-55467
My mom, who is an accountant and was tracking this argument, pretty much confirmed that the Fathers’ analysis is dead on.
I think it’s nigh time we all play nice. You are not a fan Moores’ ownership style,some of us think he’s doing fine. Fair enough. But let’s not drag it up at every passing opportunity.
June 26, 2007 at 12:03 pm
#53: I enjoy your posts, TW. I think you’re full of crap sometimes but I think the same of myself, too; kinda goes with the territory.
On a more general note, as long as folks stay focused on topics of mutual interest, it’s all good in my book. I would rather have people be frustrated by the Padres than not care about them at all.
My two cents…
June 26, 2007 at 12:08 pm
49: But what happens when the Super Big Gulp goes warm and flat before you finish it? You either suck it up and drink it (Giles) or throw it away.
51: I think Linebrink sucks, but that doesnt mean other teams wouldnt want him. Its hard for me to sit back and watch him pitch when we have other relievers who can easily do his job. Especially if other teams are willing to give up a position player that can contribute every day for him+.
He is a reliever with a glimpse of “closer stuff” that pitches 1 inning here and there in a role that certainly should not be exclusive to him. The set-up man is not a closer, the same guy shouldnt be used the 8th inning everytime we have a lead. A solid bat would be much more valuable to me.
June 26, 2007 at 12:11 pm
54: And other accountants say that MLB operates almost exactly as I claim. I’m amazed that there’s so much forgiveness on Padre financial matters three weeks after they showed just how willing to invest in the draft they really are.
The UT ran the story I referenced. Is that not a legitimate topic for conversation? The day we fall into 3rd place behind teams that don’t whine about money or hide behind the DSR, we’re treated to a list of financial victories in the hometown (one might almost call it a pet) newspaper?
55: I’m well aware of my crapability. I’m craptastic. I’m craptacular. But so are specious arguments that equate free agent spending with the excesses of Nero. Would I rather be like the Cubs? What kind of piffle is that? So are claims that we have to believe whatever the Padres say, even when they’re clearly not telling us the whole truth, or even BECAUSE they’re not telling us the whole truth.
June 26, 2007 at 12:14 pm
56: Glaus is a good player, a better hitter than Dye. Why would he go flat but Dye wouldn’t?
Whatever you think of Linebrink’s ability, his trade value will be highest for teams that are trying to get into the playoffs. Why else would you trade for somebody who can sign with anyone else a few months later? Those kind of teams don’t usually give up a strong starting corner outfielder to get a reliever.
June 26, 2007 at 12:18 pm
#56: Okay, thanks. That makes sense. Just wanted to make sure I understood.
#57: Sorry, bud, I’m the craptastic one around here; you can be craptacular. As for the financial stuff, it drives me crazy because no-one on either side of the argument has access to facts and we all end up sounding like idiots.
On another note, Peter just tipped me off that Grady Fuson is going to be on XX at 12:35 p.m. PT.
June 26, 2007 at 12:23 pm
I’m confused as to the discussion of Glaus and the Padres ‘financial victory’ article.
From what I’ve read, we all agree that:
- Glaus maybe the best RH hitter available, and
- The Padres’ farm system is too thin with prospects to use as trading chips.
I don’t see how that’s related to the money in the coffer to spend or not.
I’d hate to see Kouzmanoff having to learn the OF in the middle of the season if Glaus was to come here. Look at what happened in the Boston series when Branyan almost destroy Khalil Greene.
Having OG back in the lineup will help but the Crudge experiment seems to have run out of steam and a full time Jose Cruz in LF is not going to be the answer. How much better would a Glaus be in the lineup? I don’t know.
Probably, the Padres should see what happen when OG is back before committing to any large deal. Trying to get Glaus is not going to be a small cost a la Barrett and I’m doubt the improvement is going to be any more dramatic.
June 26, 2007 at 12:23 pm
57: Sound like idiots! Hey! Oh, right.
June 26, 2007 at 12:28 pm
61: Meant 59.
60: They’re not related. There’s a discussion on the “financial victories” article and a discussion on who we should trade for. They’re both mixed in the goulash but they’re separate ingredients.
And there’s also talk about crap.
June 26, 2007 at 12:35 pm
57: I wouldn’t say that were all front office apologists, but that we generally trust what they have to say. Of course they practice in spin, but every organization spins every public release of information in someway. I’m not an expert on the draft, but I tend to trust Peter’s assessment of what the draft bonuses will be. I trust his predictions, and as such, I think the front office did as best as they felt they could.
I would have to say, overall, one of the biggest reasons that I tend to trust the front office is that I’m simply not in the business of baseball. Although I would love to work for either an MLB or MiLB team (I’m actually going to try really hard to get a job with the Storm in a few years), I do not work in professional baseball and I have no concrete concept of how the organization works from a financial perspective. There always seems to hidden costs in baseball dealings that end up inflating or affecting numbers beyond what is reported.
I’ve been furious with the front office before, and I’m sure I will be again. I totally thought we should have pulled the trigger on Betemit (turns out we were all wrong on that one) and I was a little irked at first by letting Barfield go. Just because I don’t treat every single piece of information from the front office with contempt and skepticism doesn’t mean that I’m devoted to Sandy and that KT is my BFF.
June 26, 2007 at 12:40 pm
62: Thanks, TW. That’s what I get for late getting in the discussion.
And I agree with you that Linebrink will only be enough for teams that are going into the playoffs and as such will not bring a lot in return unless it’s prospects the Padres want.
I wonder if the Padres can get either Chris Shelton or Ryan Raburn from the Tigers.
And, I think, the medical term is stool.
June 26, 2007 at 12:48 pm
63: No, and just because I’m skeptical of some of their assumptions is no reason for me to be treated as Chicken Little or criminally contemptuous. I generally trust their evaluation of major league talent. Not so on finances.
I will bet you money that my estimates of the draft bonuses are closer than Peter’s, but it doesn’t matter, we’ll know soon enough. When Tom Krasvoic, one of the all-time Padre boosters, is saying they’re not going to spend 10 million, then it’s a safe assumption. The only way they did the best they could is if their scouting reports on multiple prospects were different than those of every other organization. Find me a scout who thinks Luebke is a better prospect than Matt Harvey and I’ll never say another bad word about the front office.
June 26, 2007 at 12:51 pm
64: I’m not sure that Shelton or Raburn is an upgrade for us. I wouldn’t mind Shelton, but I’d keep him as more of a bench player/emergency catcher/RHPH. The Padres need a middle of the order threat, not another AAAA player like Sledge. If Sledge had played in AAA all this year, we’d be clamoring for him because he’d have minor league numbers like Raburn does this year.
June 26, 2007 at 12:53 pm
#64: Shelton is a great idea if he’s available.
June 26, 2007 at 12:54 pm
If we’re going to compare the Padres to Dodgers, we have to look at this:
(Who was the GM who proceeded DePodesta?)
- Anyway, prior to Depo, the Dodgers overspent and under-delivered.
- DePo brought a Division title to L.A. in his first year and rebuilt the team…
- When Ned Colleti came in, he spent big money, and I think everyone thinks Pierre & Schmidt are wasted contracts…
It is not insignificant that DePo is now one of our advisors.
The Dodgers have revenue streams that we just don’t have. So they can be less efficient and still be successful…
Are there things I would do that the Padres are not doing? Yeah, but I have to admit that Cedric Hunter was on my “pass” list when I looked at potential draftees and BA said he was our #1. Do I wish we’d spent more money? Yeah, I would have loved to see the Padres pop Porcello in the draft. But it’s not my money.
So while I may seem to only be positive, I’m actually just slow to criticize b/c I know I don’t know everything… And if I look at the sum of things, things are good! Real good.
June 26, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Re: 68 you fooled me Peter based on all of your PPR’s and posts I thought you did know everything
June 26, 2007 at 1:07 pm
I’ll go out and say that the Padres are more likely to spend closer to what TW said at each slot than what I said (my numbers were off the top of my head - “or out of my… …lack of information”). So the Padres will spend $7m-ish on the first few rounds of the draft. It will still take another several hundred thousand dollars to sign the rest of the picks and nearly another $0.5-to-1m to sign the guys we selected who slipped (Colon, etc.). So even if we don’t spend $10m, we’re still spending $8-9m… That’s a lot.
And if we look at the top 10+ Padre prospects (alphabetically):
Antonelli
Blanks
Carrillo
Carvajal
Freese
Headley
Huffman
Hunter
Latos
Leblanc
Kulbacki
Schmidt
…There’s some serious talent in that mix. And nearly all of it was acquired by the current Alderson/Towers/Fuson team.
June 26, 2007 at 1:12 pm
Tom,I basically agree with your financial comments. Forbes’ analysts had access to much public information regarding park attendance and media contract revenue as well as players’ salaries, team expense ratios, and other operating cost such as property taxes which unquestionably are NOT the taxes ignored in their net number. I wouldnt be surprised if a staffer had worked for a team or two.The accounting gamesmanship agrument is also irrelevant since the compilations were not prepared by team’s accountants, but Forbes’ business evaluators who analysed all MLB teams. Why would they overstate any particular team’s net?
June 26, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Ah, draft analysis.
So far, not so good on the Padres’ pick and skipping on the next guy.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....cks-21-30/
June 26, 2007 at 1:33 pm
Re: 70 what no first round draft picks who is currently a power pitching realvers in rookie ball?
j/k
June 26, 2007 at 1:40 pm
Not to jump ahead of the PPR but Bush had another good outing today 1.1 IP 4SO 1H 1BB 0R
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....k_pdrrok_1
June 26, 2007 at 1:41 pm
BP’s STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 2007 NL Bullpens, by WXRL
Team, Inh Runs Prevented, WXRL
San Diego Padres, 10.6, 8.0
Arizona Diamondbacks, -2.7, 6.8
Los Angeles Dodgers, -5.3, 6.3
Atlanta Braves, -0.9, 6.0
Milwaukee Brewers, -8.2, 5.8
… nice! That’s a pretty big gap at the top!
June 26, 2007 at 1:44 pm