The Padres Prospect Report

by Peter Friberg

You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.

AAA

Paul McAnulty: 1 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 4 BB – for Lynch…
Luis Cruz: 5 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2 2B, HR, SO

AA

No games scheduled

High-A

No games scheduled

Low-A

Stephen Faris: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR

Commentary:

Faris now has 9 strikeouts in 24 IP. Alrighty then…

* * *

[Ed note: This week, Peter is profiling the top pitchers available in the 2007 draft. He'll cover nine per day. Enjoy!]

Draft Preview: College Pitchers

The following are a collection of collegiate pitchers who are draft-eligible. I compiled the list based on Baseball America‘s top 50 collegians. BA‘s top 50 list is copyrighted, so I removed the ranking order; players are listed alphabetically. Stats are through games of May 20, 2007.

LHP James Adkins (Tennessee)

3.01 ERA, 6-7 in 113.2 IP, 103 H, 52 R, 38 ER, 42 BB, 128 SO, 11 HR, .241 BAA

One of the Baseball America writers once said (paraphrasing), “Stuff is more important than production, but stuff without production is worrisome.” Adkins’ strikeout rate is quite nice and his walk rate is solid as well. He’s even decent with his hits-allowed total. However, he’s allowing quite a few unearned runs and his home-run rate is high. Is shoddy defense getting the best of Adkins, or is he allowing runs to score after a random miscue in the field? If the scouting department is comfortable with the unearned runs and thinks Adkins will be helped by leaving aluminum bats behind, Adkins is someone I wouldn’t mind to see on the Padres draft list.

RHP Jake Arrieta (Texas Christian)

3.36 ERA, 8-3 in 85.2 IP, 84 H, 40 R, 32 ER, 46 BB, 83 SO, 4 HR, .253 BAA

Arrieta’s walk rate is too high, his hit rate is only acceptable, and while he has only given up four homers, he has given up 19 doubles. It might be a function of aluminum bats, but teams are making solid contact against the right-hander. There are other options.

RHP Andrew Brackman (North Carolina State)

3.81 ERA, 6-4 in 78.0 IP, 78 H, 41 R, 33 ER, 37 BB, 74 SO, 7 HR, .264 BAA

Brackman was considered a top pick coming out of high school but with his firm commitment to N.C. State he slid to the 36th round. He’s considered a top 10 pick, but his statistics worry me. Against college competition he should be allowing fewer hits, fewer home runs, and fewer walks. If he was more dominant or if we could surmise that he the aluminum bats hurt him or possibly he is just little wild… However, when we combine the three, I get scared.

Brackman will be long gone when the Padres pick at 23, but I have a feeling he could be the biggest bust in the draft.

[Ed note: The 6'10" Brackman played forward for the basketball team in his first two years at N.C. State. See also Brackman's scouting report at MiLB.com.]

LHP Brett Cecil (Maryland)

3.32 ERA, 5-6 in 62.1 IP, 62 H, 28 R, 23 ER, 19 BB, 62 SO, 3 HR, .270 BAA

The 2007 draft is deep in two things:

1. high school talent, and
2. collegiate left-handed pitching.

Cecil is one of the top lefties in the draft (well, one of the top lefties not named David Price). His statistical profile doesn’t “wow” me, nor does it scare me. In a world where you need both stat guys and scouts, we’ll leave Cecil to the scouts.

RHP Sam Demel (Texas Christian)

2.17 ERA, 6-1 in 45.2 IP, 31 H, 16 R, 11 ER, 15 BB, 67 SO, 0 HR, .187 BAA

Sam Demel has faced 185 batters this season; only 49 have reached base. And of the 31 that have reached base via hit, only three of them have hit extra-base hits (all doubles). Demel’s strikeout total is sick, his walk rate is reasonable, his hit rate is fantastic… If the Padres are interested in a fast-moving collegiate closer, Demel would make my target list…

LHP Ross Detwiler (Missouri State)

2.09 ERA, 4-4 in 86.0 IP, 60 H, 28 R, 20 ER, 34 BB, 108 SO, 6 HR, .192 BAA

Unlike Brackman, Detwiler has a low hit rate, a low walk rate, but his HR total is tad high. Thus, again, unlike Brackman, Detwiler’s HR total is less offensive and because of the low walk & hit rates, it is likely the aluminum bats causing the high-ish HR total. Detwiler is also a likely top 10 pick and in my mind a safer bet than Brackman.

[Ed note: See also Detwiler's scouting report at MiLB.com and a QA&A with Detwiler at Scout.com.]

1B/LHP Sean Doolittle (Virginia)

2.63 ERA, 7-3 in 68.1 IP, 62 H, 26 R, 20 ER, 18 BB, 54 SO, 2 HR, .245 BAA

There are certainly guys have averaged less than a strikeout per inning in college who have had success in professional baseball, but with so many other options on this list, Doolittle’s (relative) lack of strikeouts would likely cause me to pass on him.

RHP Barry Enright (Pepperdine)

1.73 ERA, 12-4 in 125.0 IP, 110 H, 32 R, 24 ER, 13 BB, 85 SO, .238 BAA

I could write the same thing about Enright that I wrote about Doolittle… Not that he won’t be a decent player, but there are better options.

RHP Joshua Fields (Georgia)

4.46 ERA, 1-6 in 38.1 IP, 34 H, 25 R, 19 ER, 24 BB, 45 SO, 3 HR, .243 BAA

Fields is a Top 50 collegian (so he should be drafted in the top three rounds), but his production doesn’t fall in line with what we should expect to see out of player with his tools.