The San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that the Padres have signed second baseman Marcus Giles to a 1-year deal worth $3.25 million with incentives that could kick that up to $4.25 million. There’s also a club option for 2008 at $4 million. Giles still has to take a physical, but if the U-T is saying it’s a go, then who am I to argue?
The Padres have been interested in the younger Giles for a very long time, since rumors of a swap involving ex-Padre Brett Tomko surfaced in November 2002, well before the elder Giles came to San Diego. More recently, the Braves had sought reliever Scott Linebrink, who Kevin Towers has been reluctant to move.
Last week, faced with arbitration and possibly having to pay up to $6 million for his services in 2007, the Braves non-tendered Giles, leaving him free to sign with any team. The Padres, who have been pursuing him for at least 4 years, finally got their man and it didn’t cost them anything — no Linebrink, no draft picks — beyond a base salary that is lower than what Mark DeRosa and Jose Valentin will be making next season.
Giles, who turns 29 in May, suffered through his worst big-league season in 2006, hitting just .262/.341/.387 in 141 games for Atlanta. That marked the first time over a full season that he’d failed to reach at least the 112 OPS+ mark. Giles’ best performance came in 2003, when he batted .316/.390/.526. For his career, Giles owns a .285/.361/.448 line over parts of six seasons. Gotta love that .163 ISO from a middle infielder who has yet to reach 30.
With the caveat that second basemen sometimes age poorly (Quilvio Veras, anyone?), Giles brings a blend of patience and power to the plate — similar to his older brother. He also represents a serious upgrade defensively over incumbent Todd Walker, who now becomes a tremendous utility player and left-handed bat off the bench.
Giles’ list of similar players through age 28 is impressive, if varied. Several current players make the cut, including Brian Roberts (#1), Adam Kennedy (#2), Michael Young (#3), Walker (#5), Orlando Hudson (#6), Alfonso Soriano (#8), and Jeff Kent (#9). After Giles’ monster age 25 season, his top comp was Soriano. Obviously their paths have diverged, but the point is, there is significant upside here.
The Bill James Handbook 2007 projects Giles at .281/.361/.436 for the coming season. By comparison, Walker is projected for .280.349/.423, while Ray Durham, the class of this winter’s class, checks in at .282/.357/.461. As always when consulting the crystal ball, take results with a silo full of salt.
This reminds me, here’s a guess at how the 2007 lineup looks as of now, along with their BJH 2007 projected batting lines:
- Marcus Giles, 2b, .281/.361/.436
- Brian Giles, rf, .283/.401/.464
- Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, .287/.345/.473
- Josh Bard, c, .283/.348/.434
- Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3b, .317/.378/.546
- Mike Cameron, cf, .250/.343/.446
- Khalil Greene, ss, .261/.326/.437
- Terrmel Sledge, lf, .274/.350/.462
The Kouzmanoff line is outrageous and I don’t believe it. Possible? Sure, but best not to count on anything near those numbers. That’s basically what Aramis Ramirez has done over the past three seasons.
Right.
At any rate, if we’re to believe the BJH 2007 projections (again, a very big “if”), the Padres will see improvement at second base, right field, and third base (duh); stay about the same at first base, center field, shortstop, and left field; and experience a bit of a drop behind the plate. Of course, Kouzmanoff and Sledge (and to a lesser degree, Bard) are unknowns, so we’ll see. On paper, though, this is a better lineup than what the Padres sent out to battle last season, when they won the National League West.
The other thing the Giles signing does is provide the Padres with a potentially lethal bench. Walker and Russell Branyan give the club two legitimate left-handed bats off the bench, which is something that had gone missing with the departure of Mark Sweeney and Robert Fick following the 2005 season. The upside is that we’re likely to see fewer at-bats in key situations from Geoff Blum. The downside is that it’s becoming harder to envision a spot on the big-league roster for Paul McAnulty, who really deserves a shot.
What next? Well, the Padres still have a shade under $20 about $11 [thanks to Steve in the comments for pointing out the error] million of wiggle room in their budget, so an upgrade in left field would seem to be a possibility. Also, as it stands right now, Mike Thompson would be the fifth starter. No offense to Thompson, who I’ve been following since his days at Lake Elsinore and who did a fantastic job as a fill-in last season, but I’d like to see the Padres get stronger in that area. Barry Zito’s name keeps surfacing, but the David Wells talk seems to carry more weight (pun intended) and I expect something to get done on that front. Having Wells and Greg Maddux at the back end would be sweet.
Okay, to wrap up: The Padres now have a matching set of Gileses (to go with the matching set of Hoffmans). Marcus’ signing is still pending a physical. He’s expected to bat toward the top of the order, most likely leading off. He’s a better defender than Walker (and possibly Josh Barfield), and he’s cheaper than DeRosa and Valentin.
Anything else? Oh yeah, he’s not orange. 
20 mil left, come on Santa Towers, I want a Zito under the tree. Peavy, Maddax, Zito, Young, CHP. Not bad. There are no left fielders to behad, so why not put Zito under the tree and watch season ticket sales increase.
Re: 1 theres prob about 11-12 mil left
If Santa’s bringing me something, it’s a LF. I keep looking at the D-Ray’s roster and thinking, “They’ve got one OF too many.” I’d love for Towers to make a deal revolving around Hensley and/or Linebrink for Baldelli or Alex Rios. I’d even be interested in seeing us deal Linebrink for Upton and dropping him into LF.
The most salient point made in this posting is how this move really makes for a formidable bench.
Also, I am very happy OG isn’t leading off.
Guess we need another 88 mil to make the deal happen. Well, I have a five-spot in my wallet, how bout the rest of you guys.
4 – Right, it helps us in a few ways – upgrades our “D” at 2B, gives us a stronger bench, and gives us a more appropriate lineup (NOG @ leadoff).
Too bad Zito took on Boras and priced himself right out of his SoCal market.
We’re a SP and a LF away from being really good, IMO. Wells would help, but I can’t imagine he’d be in line to make 30+ starts next year at his age. Hopefully even if we get Wells we’ll still pursue Mulder. He’d be a hell of an upgrade when he comes back, if he’s healthy.
Rich @ Baseball Analysts is reviewing BJH 2007. He notes, among other things, that the book identifies Giles as the 16th best baserunner last season. (Amazingly, there was someone even worse than Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Piazza, who check in at #2 and #3 from the bottom.)
And on the plus side Geoff, we just added a top 25 baserunner (NOG).
And thinking of AGon and Piazza running the bases reminds me of one of the best posts of all time…something about the two of them running in opposite directions and tearing the time-space continuum asunder.
How Marcus Giles is ever cheaper than Mark dErosa is beyond me. Congrats from a Braves fan on getting Giles the younger. He’s always been one of my favorite Braves and we’ll definitely miss seeing him come 07.
Wow, Kouzmanoff with better numbers than Gonzales?
I’d be happy if he can put up similar numbers to Gonzales’ last season.
Looks like NOG’s predicted numbers are similar to his career’s. What happens if NOG starts turning into OG II? BTW, I think the Padres stores are selling a supplemental patch of a capital B with a period for those fans that own the OG jersey already. Not sure, if they provide any alteration service for some who’d like to convert OG jersey into a NOG jersey. Maybe during ST.
Oh, congrats to the Padres FO for getting NOG into the team. WOW, what huevos for not making any trade to try and get him.
I’m guessing it’s not just luck that gets NOG to sign with the Padres.
Yep, it looks like KT read the situation pretty well.
On an unrelated note, I’m researching the ’98 WS team for the book and I’d forgotten just how bad Archi Cianfrocco was that year: .125/.192/.208 in 72 AB. Needless to say, that’s the last time he ever played in the big leagues. Fun name, though…
Re 7 – What I inferred from reading the article and some of the comments (and Rich Lederer’s explanation) is that a baserunner who is fast and knows it (ala Suzuki) is actually more dangerous and a bigger baserunning liability than someone who is slow and knows it, ala Adrian Gonzales. Perhaps the fast try to continually push their luck and get burned more often than not, whereas the slow don’t even bother trying.
14 – Maybe I should have the fast and not-so-smart and the slow and smart.
Does anyone know the other players in the Mulder market?
Looking at the projections for next year, perhaps it would be best to bat Giles leadoff. Of course, I refer to the older Giles.
16-I believe that Texas, Arizona, and St. Louis are the teams that get mentioned with us as Mulder contenders.
I’m a big fan of the NOG move. Still, a bit sad to know that Loretta was willing to sign for $2mil for the year. Kinda strange how things are working out for loretta…
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster#20061219
Loretta might get the last laugh, he may be playing 1B for the Yanks. Not a bad deal there.
Are those BJH numbers translated for Petco? Was the Giles projection?
Anyone who plays Mark Loretta (.350 SLG the last two years) at first base will get what they deserve.
I haven’t seen anyone comment on this yet, have I?
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/12/19/SPGPHN2FNQ4.DTL
Klesko to Giants … shock!
OT – Looking through the sample of Bill James Handbook available at ACTA’s website, I noticed that there are 5 former Padres that were position players that actually pitched in the majors in their Career, Burroughs, Finley, Gonzales (Wiki), Jimenez (D’Angelo) & Loretta. This out of the 9 players listed that have pitched. I don’t know if the sample shows all position players that picthed, but it was interesting that of the 9, 5 were Pads at some point in their career.
23.
NO WAY!!! HAHA The Giants are going freaking insane with this sign the old Padres look they’re going for. Does that mean another draft pick? Brian Sabean is out of his mind or he’s drinking way too much Bochy flavored kool-aid.
I bet Klesko starts at 1B, also he thought it was hard hittinh dingers out of petco, im not shure him much better (insert Phone Company here) park is.
Do brothers play better together?Baseball-almanac.com identifies 350 brothers who played in the bigs.Of those I see 9 who had modern day careers before they were united. 5 did better-Alomars,Bretts(George hit 390),Giambis(Jeremy’s power up),Guerroros&Perrys.2 were average-Bennes&Martinez(Pedro great Ramon terrible in Boston). 2 did worse-Niekros and Gwynns(Tony only slightly).I see 14 cases where established players were joined on the same team by rookie bros.The older brother suffered in the first year with lower stats 8 times and equal #’s 5 times.Hopefully the Giles will be poison as in Waners.
23
I was just about to post that link — you beat me to the punch.
The Giants are turning into San Diego north!
Incredible. Maybe they’ll sign Burroughs too, I hear he’s available.
23-Klesko just got San Diego another supplemental draft pick! Yay! As excited as I am for the beginning of the season, I am also going to be following the pre-MLB draft stuff a little more than usual this year. Sounds like we’ve got a chance to really rejuvenate our farm system.
#29
How is there a draft pick…didn’t the Padre’s buy-out his option without offering arbitration?
And what’s with Jayso Werth signing with the Phillies? Burrell must have some “issues”.
Re: 30 the pads bought out his option then offered arbitration
30 – Hopefully those “issues” are that he is getting ready to be traded to the Padres
#31
I must not have been paying that much attention to Klesko, ‘cuz I missed the offer of arbitration.
#32
I hope those issues aren’t that they would rather have Werth than Burrell ‘cuz they think Werth will be more productive next year.
Re: 30 & 32 Werthless is a fourth OF i dont think this has any implication on Burell coming to SD, I say put P-mac in LF see if he is an every day player.
I’m just glad it makes Werth-less to San Diego impossible…and if it makes Pat the Bat more accessible ( like Steve, I’m not sure it does) that is a bonus.
BTW, anyone that’s interested…9 Chargers named to the Pro Bowl, including Phillip Rivers.
http://chargers.mostvaluablenetwork.com/
Free P-Mac! Free P-Mac!
RE #6 (and everyone else who is convinced we “need” another SP)
I look at it differently. The rotation, right now, is Peavy, Hensley, Young, Maddux and, let’s say, Thompson. I would peg Peavy as a big bet to bounce back next season – his peripherals were way better than his w-l and era last season. I am guessing his luck evens out next season. That’s an extra 3-4 wins right there.
Hensley pitched lights-out during the 2nd half of last season. If that is a sign of real improvement, which I think it is, and he carries it over into this season, that’s another 3 wins.
Young will probably not get much better, but his win total might end up more in line with his numbers which were phenomenal last season. Maybe 2-3 extra wins?
Maddux is a better pitcher than Williams, and Williams went 12-5 with a good era last season. I think Maddux could do the same.
Thompson’s best hope would be for a .500 season, but that would be better than SD #5 starters last year. And I probably don’t need to remind anyone here that the Padres won the West last season with their ace starter underperforming significantly. I think any extra lucre should be spent on a left fielder.
And, as an aside, I think McAnulty should make the roster over Cruz. If yhe doesn’t it’s criminal. Cruz is totally useless.
#38
I think you’re a little too enthusiatic about the potential improvement in won/lost of our starters, but you get bonus points for the use of the word “lucre”.
Congrats Pads fans on signing Marcus Giles. If the numbers being reported are correct, I think you have gotten one of the biggest bargains of the off-season. Low risk, high reward. The club option for next year is fantastic. Looks like you may have gotten a hometown (and playing with his brother) discount. Either way, you’re getting a good, young player at a very reasonable price. It also makes the trade of Barfield for Kouzmanoff look that much better. Management should be saluted for surveying the market for 2B and recognizing that an oversupply of talent in this area made trading Barfield for a potential middle of the order bat a worthwhile gamble.
Now, as far as Bard batting clean-up. . .
Cruz is far from useless. He crushes lefty pitching (OPS of .883 the past three years against lefties), and so is the type of hitter we need on the bench to complement Walker and Branyan. He would be a useful half of a platoon with Sledge in left. He also has a reputation as a good defender (although not sure if he still actually is).
I was perusing some of the Phillie websites for their ideas and/or attitudes regarding Burrell. This one, http://www.thegoodphight.com, currently has a poll up essentially asking “now what”? The leading choice (with 48%) is “trade Leiber for spare parts” with “trade Burrell for middle relief” towards the bottom with 8%. Anyway, what are the thoughts on Leiber? Does he have anything left in the tank? Would he benefit from the Padres new gaggle of pitching coaches as well as Petco?
Just for the sake of argument, assuming we do end up signing Wells, what are the thoughts on a Burrell & Leiber for Linebrink, Hensley, & P-Mac?
Flame on…
1: Why would you list CHP instead of Hensley? Makes no sense.
I’m good with the upside potential between Branyan, Sledge, Cruz, and Paul M. If we play enough hands, then one of them is bound to hit…. (faulty logic, but fun nonetheless). I say that we sign Wells for $4m (price ceiling at $6m) or so and then save the remaining change for a potential trade-deadline deal. It would be nice to get Burrel, but I think we’re in pretty good shape without him..
That .287 average from Adrian seems a little low. He hit .304 last year in just his first season in the league. And in the second half he picked it up and hit .336.
I’m also not convinced the 2007 lineup is better. Honestly, is Terrmel Sledge, Josh Bard, and Marcus Giles a better trio than Dave Roberts, Mike Piazza, and Josh Barfield? I think the numbers are lying here.
#41
Cruz’ defense is worse than advertised – 2 years ago he made 10 errors in right field, and he has more errors than assists over the last 3 years. He also doesn’t seem to have much value to any of the teams he’s played for previously, because they keep letting him go – he’s played for 5 teams in the last five years, and that includes a year (93) in which he hit reasonably well. I think there is inherent value in having a RH bat off the bench, but I’m just not sure that Cruz is the bat I want- I mean, he batted all of 233 last year, with a 381 slugging percentage. And I don’t think he’s getting any better.
#46
Not sure about Bard over Piazza, but Sledge should at least get a chance to prove he’s better than Roberts – Roberts had his best season last year, at age 34 and in his FA year, and I’m not sure he’s going to get any better. I’m also not sure the Pads aren’t still in the market for a left-fielder. Giles is a better hitter than Barfield, no doubt about it. Barfield drew something like 25 unintentional walks last year. That’s not good, especially for a guy who is fast and should be a basestealer.
Dec 19 – The Padres are interested in signing Wells to fill out their rotation, the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Towers was scheduled to have dinner with Wells on Monday night, but the left-hander was ill and had to cancel. “We’ll be getting together soon,” Towers told the newspaper.
Hey, what about Ben Broussard? is he an option now that the M’s have Vidro? or what about Aubrey Huff?