I’ve got to run some errands and take care of book stuff, so no baseball content today. I just wanted to give a quick thanks to everyone who has been donating, buying goodies at the Ducksnorts Online Store (I’m working on some new designs that, barring another computer crash, should be available early next week), and keeping the level of discussion here at an alarmingly high level — I can’t tell you how many times I read through the comments and want to add something, only to find that one of you has already said it better than I could have.
On another note, someone asked the other day about pre-ordering the Ducksnorts book for the holidays. Since I haven’t yet worked out all the publishing details (gotta finish writing first), drop me a line if you want a “Ducksnorts Book Coming Soon” gift card stocking stuffer type thing — be sure to include your name, mailing address, and how many you need — and I’ll hook you up right away.
That’s all for now. Feel free to talk about whatever else is on your mind; I’ll jump in when I can…
Count me in…I am going to pick a couple up as stocking stuffers and gifts for friends…maybe you can get rich off of me Geoff.
Picking up a discussion from yesterday…While I will be the first in line to say we need a bopper in the middle of the line-up (Linebrink for Burrell please), just a quick observation…from 1985 (when the KC Royals had Steve Balboni hit 35 bombs) through 2001 ask your self how many World Series winners had a 35+ HR guy on the roster.
Do Da Do Da Do Da Do (Theme from Jeopardy)
The answer is none…Steve Balboni in 1985 and Luis Gonzalez in 2001 (57 hr’s)…in between, no WS winner had a guy hit 35+ bombs.
The Pads can win the WS without a BIG BOPPER, but we do need more guys that can hit 25-30. At present, we have two (Cameron and AGon). That ain’t gonna get it done.
Did not see this reported here yesterday…
Gonzo to play for the Dodgers…1yr/$7mm
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2688711
Rule 5 update:
So, it looks like we lost Joakim Soria to the Royals in the Rule 5 draft, he was the #2 overall selection. I’m sure they’ll be more inclined to keep him around than most teams would, considering how pathetic their pitching staff is.
Padres selected Kevin Cameron from the Twins. Cameron put up solid numbers (6-4, 2.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) at AAA Rochester last year. Looks like he’s been strictly a reliever.
In the Minor League portion, the Padres picked up 2B/3B Brandon Powell from the Nats. Powell was an 8th round pick of the Royals in 2003. Powell was 280/341/463 at High A Potomac last year.
Interesting that the Cubs are taking a shot with the Rays former #1 pick Josh Hamilton. Supposedly he may be part of a trade to the Reds though.
I’ve never been to clear on the rule 5 rules, do the players selected have to make the new teams 25 man roster of 40 man roster?
They have to stay on the active, 25 man roster.
Hamilton is a really interesting Rule 5 pick. When he was drafted (ahead of Beckett) people talked about him as one of the best prep players ever.
So i take it that the Padres plan on having Powell fill the last bench spot.
Steve, Powell went in the minor league portion and does not have to be on the 25 man roster…
Only players taken in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft have to stay on the 25 man roster. That means that Kevin Cameron will pitch for the Pads and can’t go to the minor leagues…if he sticks.
No, Powell was from the Minor League portion of the draft – the rules are different for that part.
I think he has to stay on the AAA or AA roster all year, or some such.
Supposedly the Minor League portion is used mostly to fill organizational holes. Those drafted in the Minor League part are rarely prospects.
Kevin Cameron would have to stay a Padre all year or be offered back though.
Ah got it, thanks guys.
North County Times’ Shaun O’neill suggested a Linebrink for Coco Crisp swap in today’s paper? Good deal? Crisp may not hit any more HRs than Sledge would. I
Re: 10 I would rather do linebrink Willy Mo if it was possible.
Let’s talk OF defense in LF…how critical? DR gave us good D out there, but LF is not as cavernous as CF/RF. Obviously, power is the #1 concern of the FO for that position as it stands right now…who are the worst defenders available that qualify for power, and do we think the FO is willing to forego LF D for O to that extent?
Statistically, Crisp is a little better than Pena and likely a better defender.
But, I think I like Pena better too. He’s just intriguing for some reason.
If we were willing to forego “D” in LF, wouldn’t we be looking at Klesko again?
Who says they’re not looking at Klesko? I think they are and are just not announcing it yet.
Crisp is an intriguing option. He’s young, he’s one year removed from a near-breakthrough season, and he’s a good enough defender to play center field. I’m not sure I’d move Linebrink for him, but this isn’t a bad time to make a play for Crisp.
On an unrelated note, I’m just starting to delve into the question of why the Padres can’t seem to score at Petco Park. One of the most startling findings so far is that Petco doesn’t suppress run scoring any more than the Q did during its final 3 years.
Re: #14 Klesko cant hit it out of petco
Re: maybe they would throw Kotarris in the deal as well j/k.
Continuing the home run discussion…
I looked at the team rankings of total home runs for the seasons after 2001 last night. In the last five seasons, around half of the eight playoff teams placed in the top third, while no more than one or two placed in the bottom third. In fact, if I recall correctly, only in 2005 and 2006 did two playoff teams finish in the bottom third of home runs; both times, the San Diego Padres were one of the two teams.
Bryan…that is exactly right…so while a bopper is not necessary, if we don’t have one, we need more 25hr guys…
16: I’ve always thought that visiting teams have much less of a problem hitting the ball out of Petco but maybe that’s just perception, not reality.
You know what I can’t get enough of these days? The ongoing “Can Barry Bonds find a job” saga. Riveting stuff. I expect he’ll end up swallowing his pride and accepting a low-base, incentive laden deal in the AL.
#21: Anthony, that is a suspicion I have as well. It’s one of the things I’ll be checking next. One of the most fascinating things I’ve found so far is that over the past 6 years, the “extremeness” of various parks has become less pronounced, so that Qualcomm/Petco has seemed more extreme by comparison as a result of not moving toward the center.
Apologies if this gets too esoteric for some folks, but here are the most favorable parks in terms of scoring runs 2001-2006:
2001: Jacobs Field, 1.584
2002: Coors Field, 1.440
2003: Olympic Stadium, 1.382
2004: Coors Field, 1.412
2005: Coors Field, 1.285
2006: Great American, 1.153
And here are the number of parks that are +/- 10% of league average over that same period:
2001: 14
2002: 13
2003: 13
2004: 19
2005: 22
2006: 23
Still digging…
How about a trade with Houston that doesn’t involve Houston:
Greene and Linebrink for Jason Lane and Adam Everett, the undisputed(?) sabermetric king of SSs – defensively speaking, of course. Lane is an OF rightie with power, and didn’t Houston lose a key bullpen guy?
24: Ugh; How about a trade with Houston that doesn’t involve PEAVY
Supposedly we talked about a Greene/Linebrink for Everett/Ensberg swap at the deadline…
I think Barry will end up back with the Giants, no one else will take him. How much of an a-hole does a guy have to be when he’s about to break the most hallowed record in baseball and is still an offensive threat yet no one wants anything to do with him?
My Petco theory is that Padres pitchers have come to rely on it to keep the ball in the park and will be more likely to groove a strike in order to prevent a walk. Visiting pitchers would be less likely to change their gameplan for one start. Padres pitchers did allow more homers and fewer walks at home last year but I’m not sure if the difference is really significant:
Home 1.10 HR/9 2.82 BB/9
Away 1.07 HR/9 2.94 BB/9
With all the talk about Petco killing homeruns I would have thought the Home number would be much lower.
Another possible factor is Padre hitters are coached with Petco in mind, visiting teams aren’t. If Petco is getting into our hitter’s heads and not into the visiting team’s, that’s a problem.
re: 27
Barry’s winning personality isn’t the problem.
Teams don’t want the steroid/BALCO issue and the negative attention of the home run record around them.
The jump in home runs at Petco last year was astronomical, and not just for Padres pitchers. After being the most difficult park in baseball to hit a homer in each of its first 2 years of existence, Petco leaped all the way up to #16 (i.e., middle of the pack) last season. I suspect there is some truth to the “can get away with mistakes up in the zone” theory as well as the buildings beyond the outfield changing the wind currents theory.
Don’t discount the fact that we brought in the fences in right-center as well. Remember what Towers said “When I saw Hernandez hit a stand-up triple, I new something had to be done.”
5 years-55 million for Gil Meche? Wow, I guess our 6 years-72 million offer to Zito is still game (Buster Olney’s guess sometime toward end of season).
So Ned “Proven Veteran Guy” Colletti is bringing in Luis Gonzalez? “You’re doing a helluva job, Logan, but do you actually expect me to play any of our highly touted positional prospects? I think it may help Martin to give Lieberthal 65 to 70 starts.”
Re: 31 not that surprising that AJ Burnett money
CM, good point about the fence. From what I can tell so far, that and the presence of Cameron in center had more of an impact on the number of triples (which were way down last year) than homers — I’ll have to look at some charts, but I can’t recall more than a few shots leaving that part of the park (Carlos Delgado hit one, I know, but I can’t think of any others off the top of my head).
You may be right Geoff, but it has to be a factor that is considered.
Branyan hit that monster shot but I don’t think the fence was a factor
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/hrdetail.php?id=2006_5156
If there were even 5 extra homeruns because the fence was moved in I’d be very suprised. I wonder if anyone has done any wind tunnel testing?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2689475
Bonds
Kevin, Peter Gammons just said that St. Louis and Larussa both deny this and that it does not make any sense. Simply just information made up by Barry’s “very good agent”.
I have three thoughts as to why homers increased at Petco Park this season.
1) We had more power hitters than in 2005. Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Piazza, and Mike Cameron replaced Nady/Nevin/Sweeney, Ramon Hernandez, and Klesko/Nady. Even Josh Barfield hit more home runs than Mark Loretta did in 2005.
2) We brought in more pitchers who give up more home runs. Chris Young was never shy about giving up the longball, and groundball man Brian Lawrence was gone. Peavy gave up more dingers as well.
3) It was unreasonably hot at times during the summer (which I think may explain why it was unreasonably cold last week; or the Chargers needed the cold weather to prepare for Buffalo). Maybe the temperature had something to do with it, maybe not.
Just saw this on the Kevin Cameron “kid” we got in the Rule 5. His GO/FO ratio last year was 2.19.
Being a groundball pitcher, he seems a worthwhile gamble for the pen.
Here’s BP’s look at the Rule 5 draft …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5751
re: 22, 27, 28
Nate Silver at BP has also been wondering why an offensive talent like Bonds has seemingly drawn so little interest and thinks there might be another factor beyond the cheater/a-hole baggage he carries….
“So it looks to me like there’s “something else†here, and that “something else†is the prospect of Bonds going to jail. If you’re thinking about signing Barry Bonds, the first person you talk to isn’t Bonds or your owner or Jeff Borris — it’s your team’s attorney. “
Peter: re “$$ do not equal wins”. Last year the teams with the top 5 payrolls averged 11 games above .500. The 5 teams with the lowest payrolls averaged 12 games below .500. Those teams in the top half of payroll averaged 3 more wins than those in the bottom half. 4 of the teams in the top 5 of payroll were in the top 7 in wins. The nine lowest payroll teams generated losing records. CBSsportsline.com
Re: 42 your right poorly spent money does not equal wins but money sure would help, imagine if the A’s kept Giambi, Tejada, the big three, jermain dye ect…
#31: That Meche deal is unreal. It makes the Eaton signing look downright prudent. At least Eaton’s contract isn’t likely to completely cripple the Phillies.
I guess the Royals figure they can’t cripple their team if it already sucks.
Is that really the best use of money for a team that has no shot at contending? Then again, I thought Detroit was crazy to sign Pudge but they ended up in the WS.
What about that Ordonez deal, even with the injury clause?
Those were risky deals, but at least Pudge and Ordonez had done something in the past. Meche is 28 years old. The next time he makes 20 starts in a season and posts a league-average ERA will be the first.
last year the Padres were tied for 8th in wins with the 17th largest payroll(right in the middle).Only Oakland and Minnesota had more wins with less payroll. Great money management: but I sure hope SD doesnt drop to the bottom 5 in payroll this year. With half the rooster earning well under 1$$, management must be thinking of the cost when these players will be able to demand more. As for long term contracts–the last 5 years salaries have averaged 4.9% increases. The 5 years before that the average was +14.1%. It makes me think of the rent versus buy a house decision. Just don’t buy a house with a bad foundation.
Re: I cant agree with you more, the padres keep talking about how this market has got out of hand and they are going to wait till next year when it calms down but next year players will demand more then the past year and so on and so fourth.