While we’re waiting for the Padres to name a manager, there’s plenty else to keep us occupied. First, GM Kevin Towers’ option has been picked up through 2008. Love him or hate him, he’ll be with the Padres for a couple more years.
Remember all the talk about Sandy Alderson’s presence as CEO being a sign that Towers was on his way out? Of course you do, because it’s been going on since the day Alderson arrived in San Diego. From Alderson himself:
I’ve been saying for a year and half that people should not jump to conclusions or try to anticipate what might happen. This is part of a structure that we’re trying to create, and there’s no reason that Kevin and most other member of the organization can’t be part of what we have going forward.
Yeah, but reality isn’t nearly as much fun as a conspiracy theory.
The other “news” (which isn’t really, because we’ve known about this, or at least anticipated it, for a very long time) is that the Padres are making no effort to re-sign left fielder Dave Roberts. Instead, the club is focusing its efforts on getting some much-needed help for the middle of the lineup.
Look, Roberts has been the catalyst of two division winners, and he’s been orders of magnitude more valuable than I imagined possible when the Pads acquired him from Boston in December 2004, but the guy turns 35 in May and is coming off two career years. Check this out:
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | XB/H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| with Padres | 910 | .285 | .358 | .409 | .270 |
| elsewhere | 1294 | .259 | .335 | .344 | .206 |
Roberts had more extra base hits (70) in two seasons with the Padres than he’d had in his entire career (69) leading up to his tenure in San Diego. I’m grateful for what he’s done here, and I hope he’s able to swing a sweet deal based on his performance in 2005 and 2006. But in all honesty, Roberts strikes me as one of the more likely candidates to be overpaid commensurate to his actual value this off-season.
Even at his very best, Roberts is a 35-year-old left fielder (not a center fielder, as we all learned in 2005) with a 767 OPS. Is there room for a player like that on the Padres? At the right price, I think there is.
At the right price, the Pads have a guy named Terrmel Sledge on the roster. Am I suggesting that Sledge is a long-term (or even short-term) solution in left field? No. What I’m acknowledging, and what I believe the Padres recognize as well, is that left field is a position that needs to carry a little more offense than Roberts, even at his best, could provide. In other words, Roberts shouldn’t be starting for the Padres in 2007.
Assuming the Padres are able to bring in someone with pop (Carlos Lee?), Roberts, if he remained, likely would be relegated to fourth outfielder status. How much would you be willing to pay a fourth outfielder? Given what other teams are likely to offer Roberts, would that be enough? And would Roberts be happy, after having been the full-time leadoff hitter for two seasons, in a reduced role?
Sledge, on the other hand, is 5 years younger than Roberts. His career OPS is 775, higher than Roberts’ OPS with the Padres the past two years. Again, we’re not necessarily talking about an everyday player, but if the role you’re looking to fill isn’t that of a starter, then is Sledge really a worse option than Roberts? Even without the difference in salary, I’d say the answer is no. Once you factor in the money, it’s pretty clear that the advantage belongs to Sledge.
Of course, whatever happens, someone will need to manage these guys…
I’ve got a lot of confidence in Ben Johnson, and I pretty much assumed all season that we wouldn’t re-sign Doc so BJ could be in left next year. I’m a little surprised that the Padres are actively looking for an outfielder, when they have a pretty good one (who will be making pennies, by the way) in the system. I’d hate to see us pay Carlos Lee a lot of money and watch him decline over the next five years and have Ben Johnson rot away XNady-style.
I think the money would be better spent on a third baseman and a crazy, limelight-seeking, left-handed finesse pitcher from San Diego. And I don’t mean David Wells.
I’m torn on Ben Johnson, he wouldn’t be any worse than Roberts defensively, but while I was pimpin Jason Bay to get a full time role to anyone who would listen, I don’t have the same confidence in Johnson and I can’t put my finger on why…
I agree that we shouldn’t spend a lot of money on LF though (unless we can get Sheffield) and I really want Zito (which is an admitted departure from what I thought during the season). I also would love to sign Alou and use Ben Johnson/Tremel Sledge to keep Alou fresh.
#2
No way do I want Sheffield back in San Diego, period. I would have to agree that Alou with a Johnson/Sledge back-up has some merit. I would love to pick up Zito (and Maddux), if at all possible.
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As far as manager, could the delay in negotiations with Balsley be related to the potential hiring of Black as manager? If Black is the “front-runner” at this point, how similar/different are Black and Balsley’s pitching philosophy? Is there a potential conflict there that would prevent both from positions with the Padres at the same time?
So instead of 3 catchers, we go with 3 LFs? I guess that makes more sense since both backup LFs could find time in RF, and also Johnson could spell Cameron.
I am still holing out hope for The Sheff over Alou. Not that Alou’s chopped liver, but The Sheff + attitude over no extension in NY + attitude vs Dodgers for bad breakup = Goooood Times in Petco.
Zito scares me, b/c he’s so flaky AND starts the season really slow (at least lately). I can envision Towers breaking the bank to get him and then watching him blow off year one of the five year deal b/c he’s so stoked to be in SD, Dude, and needs to commue with the spirit of the waves for 5 or 6 months to get his chacres aligned or something.
I think that if the difference between Alou and Sheffiled is 6-7M next year then signing Alou is a no brainer, especially when you don’t have to trade anyone to get him.
Should be a fun off season-seems like a lot of options on the pitching front as both Eaton and Lilly must be interested in coming to San Diego.
What are you assuming for Alou? I am assuming $7-8MM total for Sheff on the Padres hook, George picking up the rest. That would leave Alou in the $1-2MM range by your estimate…does anyone have a guess at the salary Alou will command?
#4: What is this scary flakiness that you speak of? Sure, he did once play a bad cover of a NOFX novelty song on Rome. He’ll almost certainly be overpaid but a mid-3s AL pitcher coming over to the NL and Petco Park should work out fine.
Barfield traded to Cleveland for 3B Kevin Kouzmanof and P Andrew Brown. Wow-big changes this off season
I’m stunned at that one, but Signonsd.com confirms it. They speculate that Marcus Giles or Iwamura, playing 2nd may be the replacement. Never saw that one coming.
Is this Kouzmanof guy any good? Is he going to play for the Padres in 2007? And I guess Walker takes 2B?
Wow. At least it’s not Vinny Castilla this year. I think this is a good trade if we can get Marcus Giles from Atlanta; I bet that would upgrade both second and third base offensively. Iwamura from Japan also can play second, and this means he might be available more cheaply since Cleveland wanted him to play second, and they have Barfield there now.
Stephen…he has not been mid 3′s since Peterson left…I think his ERA is a tick over 4 and he is is just over .500 pitcher…he had 99 walks last year and his K’s have dropped significantly. Is that a guy we really want to spend 15 mil per on?
Well Zito had an ERA over 4 exactly once………the last two years it has been 3.86 and 3.83
I’d certainly bet on Zito being one of the ten best SP’s in the NL next year, if that is worth 14M per year to the Padres is another debate.
#10
Kouzamouf is the kid who hit a grand slam on the first major league pitch he saw this past season.
Just got a text message from Signonsd.com that said Bud Black is our new manager. Things are hopping.
10: Kouzmanoff definitely has a track record of hitting in the minors. This year in 350 AB in the minors he hit .379/.437/.656 in AA and AAA. The previous year he hit .330/.400/.580. There are questions about his defense.
Wow. KT staying busy today. Bud Black seems like a fine choice. His name after all is not Dusty Baker.
WOW!!!
I’m sad to see Barfield go but Kouzmanoff was one guy I was looking at a lot last year and he had a huge AAA year. I freeaking love when stuff like this starts happening!!!
Holy Crap Batman…I am sitting on a plane to Chicago reading this…dont know what to think. Will have to process if they don’t arrest me for using the internet while in flight…
Barfield gone and Black at the helm…strange things are afoot at the circle k!
I’m in shock about Barfield! There go my prospects of wanting his baby. He was my favorite young Padre. I’m stunned…just stunned.
Here’s Major League Trade Rumours take on the trade:
Very interesting trade just went down: the Padres sent second baseman Josh Barfield to the Indians for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and reliever Andrew Brown.
Side effects: the Padres now have an opening at second if they want to trade for Marcus Giles, and they probably won’t make a bid for Akinori Iwamura. Kevin Towers found a creative way to acquire a third baseman without spending money. Kouzmanoff, 25, did nothing but hit in the high minors this season. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein ranked him the tenth best third base prospect in the game despite his age and health concerns.
Barfield had an OK rookie season, with a scorching July skewing the numbers a bit. He’ll be just 24 next year, so there’s room for improvement.
Blown away by the Brfield trade. Didn’t see it coming at all, but it sounds like a pretty shrewd trade if we get Iwamura and he ends up playing 2B and hitting like he is supposed to.
Now, on to Soriano/Alou/Sheffield and Zito
Charge!!!!
Hey guys
Fox news says bud black:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6150706?FSO1&ATT=HMA
Damn. I think the Barfield deal could work out well, but this just kills me. I’ve been studying the game where he hit the walk-off homer against the Rockies, about an hour each night, and I’m only up to the second inning. It will be very bittersweet when I get to the ninth.
Very pleased with the Black hiring. I’d have been just fine with either him or Hillman. My only concern, which Ranger31 mentioned in #3, is the impact this might have on negotations with Balsley. None, I hope.
I’ll have some more carefully considered analysis up tonight or tomorrow morning.
W o w!!!!
Geez, just when you think you can get used to the idea of a guy manning a position for years to come, he’s gone!
Questions:
1. does Kouzmanoff even fit on the back of a jersey or do they go to a smaller font?
2. did we try to get Marte and get denied?
3. did KT stay out too late after signing his extension, wake up and go “I traded who to where for what?!?!”
4. who is Downtown Andrew Brown? or is it Bad, Bad Andrew Brown, baddest man in whole dang town? Do I smell Meredith throw in type value? “Always get an arm in the deal” is truly KT’s motto.
I like this if KK is as good a hitter as they say and a solid defender. Many more options at 2B to replace Josh since you don’t have to be married to 35 HRs as a prerequisite (would be nice of course).
Have to say, this is NOT the middle IF I expected we’d move!
Sorry, I’m a little late on the link! Thought I was breaking the story here! Ha!
Wait a minute . . . Barfield is gone??? Oh, man. Wow. I’m totally speechless. I’m really bummed to see him go — the kid was a gamer.
Brown is pretty good too — wasn’t he a 1st rounder? I’ve heard Kouzmanoff can rake . .
Just heard all the news. Man, really something.
Hey, maybe we could get Soriano to take the “San Diego Discount” if we let him go back to playing second base?
Soriano is terrible.
Bud Black is the first Black manager in Padres history.
Quick thought – could Mark Loretta possibly be a replacement at 2B? He’d be a known commodity that would come much cheaper. Hard to tell what we would be getting, honestly, from the Japanese player and to get Giles we just have to trade more of our own prospects. Honestly, what would the Braves want that we would consider expendable? Certainly not pitching.
My vote would be spend more money in the OF and SP and sign Loretta on the cheap.
Various notes on Kouz coming from Padres Rundown:
>The Indians’ Kevin Kouzmanoff has been playing first base in the Arizona Fall League. If Indians’ brass do not think Kouzmanoff can handle the hot corner, but want to keep his bat in their lineup at first base, then this move diminishes the likelihood that either he or Andy Marte will be traded.
>Kevin Kouzmanoff – Kouzmanoff is everything Marte isn’t… He’s never been a top prospect. He is not a highly regarded defensive prospect. He’s a colligate draftee as opposed to an international signee. And maybe most visably, while Marte struggled to adjust to Major League pitching, Kouzmanoff hit a grand slam on the first pitch he saw in the bigs.
While Marte actually had superior MLB numbers, Kouzmanoff hit better in the minors:
2003 (SS): 54 games .272/.342/.437 – Just signed as 6th round draftee
2004 (Low-A): 123 games .330/.394/.526 – 35 2B, 5 3B, and 16 HR
2005 (High-A): 68 games .339/.401/.591 – 24 years old, but mashing
2006 (AA): 67 games .389/.449/.660 – 15 HR in 244 at-bats
2006 (AAA): 27 games .353/.409/.647 – 7 more HR in 102 at-bats
Marte is clearly the better fielder (reports have him playing an above-average third base), but Kouzmanoff may be the better hitter. Kouzmanoff is 25 years old where Marte will turn 23 this November. Marte is still growing and developing, Kouzmanoff is what he is (which is a darn good man to have at the plate with a bat in his hands).
Cleveland is a unique team for the Padres to match up with. Last year, they offered Trevor Hoffman more money than San Diego did. That Hoffman rebuffed their efforts left Cleveland without a “true†closer. Scott Linebrink has long been coveted by many teams for his perceived ability to become a closer – I think he can do it as well – Linebrink could likely wind up with a new team in 2006 in the Padres’ efforts to solve the hot corner.
While both Marte and Kouzmanoff would be solid additions to the 2007 Padres, Marte’s youth and superior defensive ability make him the more desirable of Cleveland’s two young third basemen.
Andrew Brown, RHP, was selected in the 6th round of the 1999 draft by Atlanta, out of high school. He’s 6’6″, 220 lbs., and is 25 years old (will be 26 for the 2007 season). He was part of a trade for Gary Sheffield, going to the Dodgers. In his minor league career, he’s given up fewer hits than IP, and his K/IP is over 1. He seems to have some control issues, as he has walked 4 BB/9 IP. Last year in AAA he pitched 62.1 innings with a 2.60 ERA, a 7.6 K/9 IP, and 5.2 BB/ 9 IP, which was the highest walk rate of his career. He’s also very good at keeping the ball in the park, with a career HR/9 IP rate of .85 (.72 in 2006). Chris Kline from Baseball America, in his ESPN chat, said he though Brown was overrated, with his fastball velocity having fallen from 98 to 94 over the past few years. Last year, lefties OPS-ed 150 points lower against him than righties, but he actually had a lower K rate and higher BB rate against them, so that could just be a one year fluke.
#29
I was half-kidding…
As of right now though (pending any other transactions), Todd Walker is our likely opening day second baseman. Think about that.
GY, I’ve got a feeling you’ll be doing a lot of work on the Pads Organizational Tree this off season.
I was somewhere and saw or heard SA saying that 2b is one of the easiest positions to replace when he was asked about the Loretta and Mirabelli trade. If he believes that, a young 3b is more valuable than a young 2b and therefore more easily expendable. I’ll miss Barfield, though, but not as much as SDPG.
28: Kevin, might you be overstating the whole terrible thing? It’s not like you can use the bandbox argument against Soriano this offseason like we could last year when his splits showed huge preference for Arlington, IIRC.
I admit to blowing off a quick check of Zito’s stats when I wrote “mid-3s” pitcher, but I’d still take him.
the financial repercussions of this trade are interesting. we get a 3B for cheap, and there are a bunch of low cost 2B options. Leaving the bulk of our FA money to be used on SP or LF. If Sheff, then 13M there, and we can still grab a top SP. Is there any hope we can bid on Matsuzaka, bring back walker for 2B and sign a delucci for LF?
Doesn’t this Kouzmanoff thing feel a bit like after getting Adrian Gonzalez last year? It’s a guy who can obviously hit the ball but had gone as far as he could with his home organization, being blocked by a tremendous talent at the MLB level. Obviously, the Indians had two guys vying for one position. Gonzalez worked out great for us and I have a feeling that this might be the makings of something special as well.
The other point is, could this deal have been influenced by Antonelli being at second? 2B of the future label didn’t make any sense before since we had a young barfield on the major league team, but now….
Finally, do we have any chance of signing Soriano @ 2B for our big bat and bringing back Roberts? DR seemed like a perfect fit for the team last year…
Matt C: I looked at the stats for Adrian for 2005, when he was in AAA for Texas playing 1B. The two are quite similar.
Gonzalez: .338/.399/.561; 328 AB; 32 BB; 42 K; 18 HR; 17 2B
Kouzmanoff: .379/.437/.656; 340 AB; 33 BB; 46 K; 22 HR; 28 2B
They look like the same type of hitter: their main strength is power, and they don’t walk or strikeout a lot. Kouzmanoff just has a little more power.
re: 36
You have to see the guy play to see how poor he is. He is a poor baserunner. He likes to steal bases, but his SB pct. isn’t good. He is a lazy fielder. Most of his assists are on balls he should have caught in the first place. He doesn’t walk enough. He hits home runs, that’s about it.
Plus, at his age and considering the fact that he just had a career year, some team is going to sign Soriano for four or five years and get one great year and one good one out of him. Not a good investment.
I wonder if the Padres get into the running for a guy like Julio Lugo. Potential lead-off type and could probably pick it at 2nd really well.
Sam the man! Join the Doc Choir, we’re pretty much the only ones…
re: 38, difference (on paper at least) seems to be D…Adrian was known as a top-tier glove, right? KK seems to be, shall we say, less highly regarded.
So many quesitons, way too early to ask most of them since there are inevitably multiple moves to still be made. My first thought though is what does the top of the order look like next year with Barfield and Roberts gone? Again, pending moves will dictate.
Looks like the starting lineup will have at least 4 (C, 2B, 3B and LF) new faces next spring; possibly 5 (SS) because of how ambivalent Alderson appears to be re: Greene.
Glad it is Black not Baker.
Gary Sheffield, nooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
I would rather swim naked through a shark tank with a bloody T-bone tied around my waist than see Sheffield in a Padres uni.
Some caller on 1090 just said the Padres already had a 3B prospect and they got rid of him. Um, didn’t the Devil Rays release Burroughs?
Kevin,
The guy can slug it, though I trust your opinions on his overall game. I can dig a SB but prefer my base-stealers to succeed at 75%, absolute minimum. SI’s Jon Heyman(sp) did a FA bargains and bust column and Juan Pierre made the bargains list but not Roberts. Huh? If Pierre makes it – which I don’t see – then how doesn’t Roberts? Though how quickly we forget his poor success rate in 05.
Wow actually if you look at the options at 2nd base through free agency alone there are a lot of options. Not that I like them but they are definitely out there.
Ronnie Belliard
Mark DeRosa
Ray Durham
Adam Kennedy
Mark Loretta
Rich Aurilia
Geoff Blum
Todd Walker