The good news is the Padres managed to finish .500 on their six-game jaunt to Atlanta and Miami. And they didn’t go down without a fight in Sunday afternoon’s game against the Marlins. The bad news is Adam Eaton is scuffling. Some interesting splits:
by inning, 2004
Inn AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG 1-3 82 15 27 2 0 4 5 16 329 360 500 4-6 61 6 13 1 0 0 2 14 213 250 230 7+ 23 4 6 1 0 2 1 0 261 320 565
by pitches, 2004
Pitches AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG 1-30 48 14 18 2 0 2 3 8 375 404 542 31-75 50 7 10 0 0 1 3 11 200 241 260 76+ 44 2 12 2 0 2 2 6 273 333 455
He struggles early, dominates in the middle, and falls off a bit late. This is interesting given that Eaton often doesn’t reach peak velocity until well into a start. But it’s also not consistent with last year’s performance:
by inning, 2003
Inn AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG 1-3 348 43 87 23 1 10 34 71 250 315 408 4-6 298 40 73 20 3 10 31 65 245 319 433 7+ 58 8 13 1 0 0 3 10 228 297 246
by pitches, 2003
Pitches AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG 1-30 204 33 53 14 1 6 15 38 260 313 426 31-75 292 37 70 19 0 9 35 66 240 323 397 76+ 207 21 50 11 3 5 18 42 242 311 396*
*Numbers for 76+ pitches are approximate due to inconsistent source data. They’re pretty darned close, though.
And another interesting split:
by batting order
Batter AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG 4-5 39 21 3 0 4 2 4 538 561 923 other 127 25 1 0 2 6 26 197 241 252
Two spots in the lineup are doing almost all the damage against Eaton so far. It isn’t surprising that opponents’ #4 and #5 hitters are doing better than other guys. What is alarming is the magnitude of the difference. I know that Richie Sexson has owned Eaton, and Miguel Cabrera did some serious damage against him the other day.
Last year it was the #3 (.330/.366/.693) and #4 (.321/.393/.564) hitters who racked up the big numbers against Eaton. Same idea.
How to fix these problems? Well, the early/middle/late splits look kinda fluky to me in light of historical patterns. So I’m going to assume that this will work itself out on its own. As for two guys in the lineup doing most of the damage, I’m thinking Eaton, Darren Balsley, and Ramon Hernandez need to do a better job of figuring out ahead of time which batters are most likely to do significant damage, and Eaton needs to pitch more carefully to those guys.
Eaton’s got good enough command (he’s walking 1.7 batters per 9 innings) that he can work around the occasional batter or two to get to a better matchup. I know you never want to put runners on base, and you want to be aggressive, but I can’t help but wonder if sometimes a walk isn’t so bad?
Down on the Farm
Real quick look at a few key names…
AB HR BB SO BA OBP SLG
T. Bozied, 1B, Por 35 2 3 9 314 368 629*
B. Castro, 2B, Por 104 0 9 12 250 307 298
J. Cirillo, UT, Por 23 0 5 1 348 464 478**
Fernandez, OF, Por 99 2 6 15 283 321 404
J. Knott, OF, Por 105 7 12 22 305 378 590
X. Nady, OF, Por 42 1 4 5 381 447 524*
Petrick, 1B/OF, Por 57 1 6 13 263 344 439
B. Scales, UT, Por 51 1 8 12 392 483 686
H. Stanley, OF, Por 86 2 10 10 256 330 419
J. Barfield, 2B, Mob 109 3 6 30 239 271 385
T. Donovan, OF, Mob 113 1 11 28 319 389 416
J. Gautreau, 3B, Mob 99 5 15 24 263 357 485
F. Guzman, OF, Mob 80 0 11 20 300 391 338
B. Johnson, OF, Mob 86 3 10 32 186 271 349
G. Sain, C/IF, Mob 88 8 15 32 239 352 568
N. Trzesniak, C, Mob 70 3 4 20 229 316 414
L. Cruz, SS, LkE 116 2 7 14 276 323 405
M. Johnson, 1B, LkE 95 6 19 33 211 336 463
K. Jones, OF, LkE 120 0 18 22 317 406 442
P. McAnulty, 1B, LkE 97 5 20 19 299 424 515
G. Kottaras, C, FtW 44 0 9 9 295 415 409
C. Morton, C, FtW 69 3 8 27 159 275 348
Valenzuela, 1B, FtW 98 2 10 9 276 363 357
IP H HR BB SO ERA
M. Bynum, Por 20.0 21 0 11 15 3.15
J. Germano, Por 6.0 4 0 2 3 1.50
B. Neal, Por 19.0 17 0 7 24 3.32
C. Oxspring, Por 26.1 21 0 13 26 3.42*
B. Sweeney, Por 36.1 35 2 6 29 2.72
Tankersley, Por 45.0 39 2 19 37 2.20
B. Baker, Mob 14.0 6 0 3 15 0.00
J. Germano, Mob 32.1 31 3 7 20 2.51
B. Whitaker, Mob 6.0 4 0 0 4 3.00
E. Bonine, LkE 7.0 8 1 0 3 5.14
J. Huber, LkE 27.1 29 2 15 27 3.62
D. Pauley, LkE 31.2 29 4 11 30 5.12
G. Ribas, LkE 25.1 32 4 7 16 4.62
T. Stauffer, LkE 35.1 28 0 9 30 1.78
B. Whitaker, LkE 31.2 28 4 7 25 1.99
E. Bonine, FtW 27.1 25 2 3 31 1.98
Girardeau, FtW 26.1 21 3 9 29 3.42
D. Hayhurst, FtW 25.0 13 1 2 26 0.72
D. Moore, FtW 17.0 27 1 10 14 7.41*
S. Thompson, FtW 30.0 26 4 15 24 3.30
J. Wells, FtW 30.2 29 2 9 24 2.93
*, disabled list; **, rehab assignment.
Comments:
- A lot of all-or-nothing hitters: Gautreau, Sain, M. Johnson, etc.
- Knott is making quite the impression, Nady (ankle) is due back from the DL soon, Cirillo has been recalled from rehab: Knott provides runs in win over Trappers (Oregonian)
- Barfield got off to a horrendous start but has been coming on of late
- Guzman has cooled off after a torrid beginning to 2004
- Sain has played two games each behind the plate and at the hot corner
- Keep an eye on Cruz, who is putting up some good numbers as a 20-year-old middle infielder in High-A ball
- Gotta like K. Jones’ approach at Elsinore: good on-base numbers; also learning to use speed (13-for-17 in stolen base attempts)
- Germano just keeps on climbing, replacing the injured Oxspring in the Portland rotation: Padres’ pitcher of future set to take on Stingers (Oregonian)
- Oxspring, who had been pitching well, is expected to be out another 6-8 weeks: Lights-out batting adds to deficit (Oregonian)
- Neal, acquired from the Marlins for Ben Howard, has some pretty sweet strikeout totals
- Sweeney and Tankersley are making strong cases for themselves if an extra starter is needed
- Baker, acquired in June 2002 from the Red Sox as part of the Alan Embree deal, is attempting to re-establish his prospect status as a reliever
Finally, go check out Jonathan’s Conversation with Jeff Cirillo at PDX Beavers. As always, Jonathan asks excellent questions. Cirillo, for his part, provides thoughtful answers. A worthy read.
That’s all for now. More as it happens…
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