Friday Links (29 Feb 08)

Friday, February 29, 2008
by Geoff Young
Happy Leap Day. If you haven't participated in the Opening Day Roster contest, what's up with that? The winner receives a copy of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual. Meanwhile, we've got links: SI.com reports that Brian Giles is feeling good. So is his surgically repaired right knee. [Kevin] John Walsh at Hardball Times is searching for baseball's best pitch. The fastballs of Heath Bell, Chris Young, and Jake Peavy get some love, as do the slider of Peavy and Young (!). [Masticore317] Rich, Sully, and friends are doing their annual Two on Two over at Baseball Analysts. As always, their commentary makes for an entertaining read, and this year's take ...
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Posted in Notes and Links | 114 Comments »

Friday Links (22 Feb 08)

Friday, February 22, 2008
by Geoff Young
Weather permitting, we've got a meetup tonight at Tony Gwynn Stadium. As of this writing, the rain is coming down pretty good in my neck of the woods, so stay tuned. I'll keep everyone updated in the comments. Also, my proof copy of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual arrived in the mail yesterday afternoon. Mrs. Ducksnorts and I are going to read through it over the weekend, and assuming everything checks out, this thing should be ready for public consumption on Monday. Finally, if I sent you an invite to the Ducksnorts Fantasy Baseball League, please respond by 11:59 p.m. PT on Friday. If I haven't heard from you by then, I'll open up the remaining spots to others who have expressed an interest. Once the first ...
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Posted in 2008 Baseball Annual, Notes and Links | 61 Comments »

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OBG08 Projections for Padres Pitchers

Sunday, February 17, 2008
by Geoff Young
Yesterday we ran the hitters, today it's time for the moundsmen: OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Pitchers PlayerNo.IPERARange Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; IP, innings pitched, ERA, duh; range, lower and upper guesses for ERA. Left-Handers Hampson, Justin11484.213.50 - 5.05 Thatcher, Joe11582.861.96 - 3.42 Wolf, Randy151244.183.71 - 4.91 Right-Handers Bell, Heath12812.762.25 - 3.53 Cameron, Kevin11533.783.10 - 4.85 Germano, Justin14814.623.74 - 5.50 Hensley, Clay13804.433.80 - 5.20 Hoffman, Trevor15513.212.60 - 5.00 Maddux, Greg171914.093.80 - 4.29 Meredith, Cla14722.972.40 - 3.41 Peavy, Jake212122.812.12 - 3.20 Prior, Mark14684.163.21 - 5.15 Young, Chris171793.232.40 - 4.15 I don't know if people got tired of the project toward the end or just had less confidence in projecting pitchers (especially relievers), but there was less participation here. I'm not being critical, ...
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Posted in Projections | 8 Comments »

OBG08: Heath Bell

Sunday, February 10, 2008
by Geoff Young
In his first full big-league season, Heath Bell dominated in every sense of the word. Bell's stuff is closer-worthy, and he may get the opportunity to save some games in '08 when Trevor Hoffman needs a breather. The one concern I have with Bell is that he was worked extremely hard last year. It's impossible to say whether this will affect him in the short or long run. What we do know is that if healthy, Bell is legit: 80 IP, 2.49 ERA.

Posted in Projections | 19 Comments »

First Projections for 2008

Tuesday, October 16, 2007
by Geoff Young
Dan has posted 2008 ZiPS projections for the Padres (hat tip to Ben B. in the comments). Some key names: Hitters PlayerBAOBPSLG Josh Bard.281.366.401 Adrian Gonzalez.284.351.511 Matt Antonelli.254.337.376 Kevin Kouzmanoff.289.345.492 Khalil Greene.249.300.442 Scott Hairston.243.317.405 Brian Giles.268.375.398 The projection for Hairston is low -- possibly by a lot, but the rest of these look reasonable to me. Center fielder remains a problem that I'm still studying. Pitchers PlayerERA Jake Peavy2.99 Chris Young3.32 Greg Maddux3.91 Trevor Hoffman2.53 Heath Bell2.89 Cla Meredith3.26 If Young is healthy, he'll beat this. Hoffman? Well, his ERA stood at 2.53 after 162 games this year. Winter Leagues Saguaros 3, Phoenix 2 (box score). ...
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Posted in Projections | 32 Comments »

Review the Preview: Pitchers

Monday, October 8, 2007
by Geoff Young
We're looking back at my preseason predictions for the Padres. Last week we examined the hitters; today we turn our attention to the moundsmen... Rotation Jake Peavy, RHP What I said: "If he's going to maintain his place among the elite pitchers in baseball, Peavy really needs to become more efficient." What happened: From a visual standpoint, it seemed like Peavy had less trouble putting hitters away once he got ahead of them in the count. Unfortunately I cannot find anything in the statistical record to support this. What I did notice is that the GB% (percentage of balls in play that resulted in ground balls) against Peavy jumped from 38% in ...
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Posted in Baseball | 30 Comments »