May Recap

I’m more than a little disgusted after the last two games against Colorado. Adam Eaton actually pitched pretty well Monday night. One mistake to Jeromy Burnitz did him in. But two runs combined against Jason Jennings and Aaron Cook? Another bases-loaded, one-out situation that results in zero runs? Justin Germano and Khalil Greene looking like rookies. Greene has spoiled us, so it was surprising to see him commit two errors on the same play. Then again, it might be nice to give him a day off every now and then. Too bad Kerry Robinson can’t play shortstop. And where is the vaunted 800-run offense we were told to expect? Ugh…

Anyway, we were talking about May. The Padres finished the month with a 13-14 record. Fortunately, the Dodgers hit the skids and ended May in a virtual tie for first with the Pads. Unfortunately, the Giants started winning and turned the NL West into a three-team race.

So what happened? Take a look at those keys we talked about last month:

       G   IP  H HR BB SO  ERA
Wells  3 20.0 18  3  2  9 3.15
Eaton  6 32.0 42  8 10 28 8.16
Peavy  4 24.2 26  2  8 29 2.19

Nothing wrong with Wells and Peavy, but both landed on the DL. Eaton was healthy but completely ineffective. This is sobering. The Padres played 27 games in May. Eaton and Ismael Valdez combined to start 12 of those (44%). Here is how they did:

  IP  H HR BB SO  ERA W-L
63.0 89 15 21 41 7.57 1-7

The rest of the staff:

   IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA  W-L
174.0 157 18 67 156 2.84 12-7

Damn.

The bottom of the order was another key we identified. How did they do in May?

           AB  BA OBP SLG BB SO
Payton     82 354 432 537 11  5
Hernandez  65 277 338 508  5  7
Greene     91 220 308 319 11 24

Wow, Payton very quietly had a terrific month. Hernandez did just fine as well. The league appears to have adjusted to Greene. Such is the nature of rookies. Overall, no real complaints on this front.

There’s also been talk that Petco Park might be getting into some of the hitters’ heads. Let’s take a look at some splits:

                 home              away
           AB  BA OBP SLG    AB  BA OBP SLG
Burroughs  89 348 389 427   107 318 348 374
Loretta    85 224 287 365   118 381 420 525
Giles      81 272 372 519   106 292 406 491
Nevin      79 228 337 354   111 324 374 495
Greene     68 265 367 368    99 263 321 404
Payton     64 234 329 313    87 356 436 540
Klesko     55 273 349 382    60 250 352 333
Hernandez  54 167 237 259    77 299 389 481

Padres    709 238 320 350  1013 296 358 427
opponents 765 271 321 397   941 261 327 436

                 OPS
           home away  dif (h - a)
Burroughs   816  722  +94
Loretta     652  945 -293
Giles       891  897   -6
Nevin       691  869 -178
Greene      735  725  +10
Payton      641  976 -335
Klesko      731  685  +46
Hernandez   497  869 -372

Padres      669  785 -116
opponents   718  762  -44

Interesting. I’d figured Klesko and Nevin would be the biggest victims of Petco, but maybe I was giving too much weight to their public complaints. Of the eight regulars, four guys are relatively neutral, while four have astronomical splits. The sample still isn’t that large, but those differentials–particularly for Loretta, Payton, and Hernandez–are alarming.

If it were just one or two hitters, or if there were a guy with significantly better numbers at home, I might be more inclined to write this off as a fluke. But it sure looks like there is something about Petco that the Padre hitters don’t like. My suggestion, which isn’t terribly helpful, is that they get over it and learn how to hit at home.

Then there’s the question of pitching. Padre hurlers have a 3.98 ERA at Petco, 3.87 on the road. Odd to think that maybe the Pads’ home park is helping neither their hitters nor their pitchers, and yet they are in contention.

May was largely a month of disarray for the Padres. They lost two members of their rotation to the DL, while two others stunk up the joint. Their #5 hitter, unproductive for much of the year, also landed on the shelf. The club showed a frustrating inability to win games within its reach and did not separate from the pack in the NL West. The flip side is that the Pads didn’t lose any ground in May. Treading water at this point, waiting for guys to get healthy and hoping that the kids filling in for them can give the club just enough to keep things interesting.

Going forward, the Pads need Brian Lawrence to prove that May (3.19 ERA) is closer to his true level than April (5.64). They need Eaton and Valdez to get back on track, and Wells and Peavy to get healthy. And wouldn’t it be nice to see a Justin Germano or Dennis Tankersley step up and make a contribution.

The hitters need to solve Petco. Whether the park effects are real or imagined makes no difference. As a group, these guys need to find a way to put the ball in play and make things happen. Chicks may dig the long ball, but fans dig wins. The Padres have been outhomered this year, 52-34, but still have a winning record. If the big boppers in the middle of the lineup can stay focused on making solid contact and not worry so much about what effect the lack of homers will have come negotiating time, results will follow.

The decision makers need to make better use of available resources. The Padres moved in the right direction in May by jettisoning the likes of Eddie Oropesa and Jason Szuminski. The good news is that the only useless piece remaining on the ballclub is Robinson. The bad news is that the folks in charge don’t seem to realize how useless he is. Not a knock on Robinson as a human being. I’m sure he’s a perfectly nice guy. But right now, I’d send Eaton up to pinch hit for him if the opportunity arose. There is no room for a guy like that on a big-league team that considers itself a contender.

Lest we end on a negative note, here’s a little historical context. How this year’s team stacks up against other great Padre teams of the past:

             May               season
Year   W  L  Pct  RS  RA   W  L  Pct  RS  RA
1984  10 13 .435  93 101  92 70 .568 686 634
1996  17 10 .630 129  87  91 71 .562 771 682
1998  16 14 .533 142 115  98 64 .605 749 635
2004  13 14 .481 120 123  ??????????????????

First weekday afternoon game at Petco. Lawrence vs Shawn Estes. 12:35 PM, no television. Let’s not get swept by the Rockies. Not to sound desperate, but after the Rox, it’s three against Milwaukee and then off to Boston and the Bronx. Wins now would be real nice…

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