Me, Elsewhere: Baseball as a Three-Act Play

My latest at Baseball Prospectus ($) breaks down NL West teams’ run scoring and prevention tendencies in three-inning increments. Surprisingly, the Padres are easily the best (+18 run differential through July 31) from the seventh inning onward — this despite being outscored by 13 runs in extra frames.

Of course, when you are getting obliterated in the early and middle innings, end game performance doesn’t necessarily mean a whole lot. The Padres particularly struggle in the sixth, when they have been outscored, 60-35, this year.

That -25 differential represents the exact opposite of what the teams pacing the division are doing. Arizona has outscored the opposition, 72-47 (+25), in the sixth, while San Francisco is at 62-36 (+26). Funny what a difference an inning can make…

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4 Responses »

  1. Getting bludgeoned in the 6th inning… a sign of Padres SP wearing down?

  2. @Laowai: you watching the same game I am? I see a goose egg for the Dodgers in the 6th and Latos has thrown only 86 pitches.

  3. @LF- I’m referring to the above article, the bit about the trend this season of being outscored 60-35 in the sixth inning. I’m wondering if there’s a reason for it

  4. Its stats like this that make me interested in tandem pitching rotations. 4 Innings for Starter 1, 4 Innings for “Starter” 2, 2 innings for RP’s… do this on a 3 day rotation with 6 starters.