Me, Elsewhere: Looking Back at April

My latest at Baseball Prospectus ($) examines the differences between the first month of this season and last in the NL West. For example, take Brad Hawpe, please:

2010 50 .357 .460 .714  8  8
2011 72 .149 .194 .194  4 23

Also, here’s something I threw in about Mike Adams:

  G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG
120 413 24 65  6  3  4 31 130 .157 .216 .215
 96 296 12 53  6  1  1 15  59 .179 .218 .216

The top line represents what Adams did to big-league hitters from the beginning of 2009 through April 2011. The bottom is what Phillies catcher Mike Ryan did in 1968. Ryan is the last of three men in MLB history to have an OBP and SLG below .220 in at least 300 plate appearances…

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6 Responses »

  1. Situation: Tuesday night against the Pirates, bases loaded, nobody out in the bottom of the eighth. Your team is down 5-4 and the opposing pitcher has just walked in a run. If you are at the plate, you take a pitch until the pitcher throws you a strike, right? Obviously if you are Jorge Cantu, you swing on the first pitch and pull an outside slider as an easy ground ball to the 3rd baseman for a 5-4-3 double play.

    Look, I know that tying run came in on that one, but Brandon Wood could have just as easily come home for the 5-2-3 double play (still not sure why he didn’t come home – Bartlett would have easily been out. Maybin followed with a swinging K to end the inning.

    I’m beyond sick and tired of the bad approaches the Padre hitters are ‘taking’ (cough cough) at the plate. There are so many examples of this kind of thing that i’ve witnessed this year already. If Mattingly can fine James Loney $1 for every fly ball out to left, then certainly these guys need to be hit with a bigger fine every time they do something stupid to kill a potentially big inning. Hello Randy Ready and Bud Black, is anyone home?

    Just saying.

  2. Jor-hay, can’t you see?

  3. Mike Adams. Those numbers are FILTHY – would not have believed it at first, but after watching him for the past year plus, it all fits. 130 strikeouts in just over 400 AB’s – nice. I’m sure these same numbers will factor in to Jed’s decision this summer regarding Heath.

    GY, thanks as always for the great information, history, and stats. For a guy like me who doesn’t know a ton about advanced metrics but does watch the games night in and out, you (and others here) have helped me get a better knowledge of the numbers and the game in general.

    Oh, and Hawpe’s back to normal – 0-4, 2 K’s.

  4. i know it’s frustrating that Jorge swung at the first pitch. on the other hand, there’s a possibility that the pitcher would have just pumped a first pitch fastball in there.

    the trouble is, Jorge tried to pull that slider instead of going with it and fouling it off.
    so yeah, he probably should have taken that first pitch, but having decided to do otherwise, shouldn’t have tried to pull it. then again, he’s not that good and maybe just can’t go the other way.

    well, not everyday, do we see Gregerson gave up 1BB, 3 hits only getting 1 out for 3 ER.

    Come on, Padres! Win this one.

  5. did Orlando Hudson got hurt? I just saw the boxscore and he hit a double & was then replaced by Patterson who then hit a HR.

  6. @Didi – yes, Hudson pulled up lame at second after he hit that double in the first inning. He was grabbing his right hamstring, so I’m guessing he pulled it while running to second. He walked off the field on his own IIRC.

    The real trouble is that Cantu and others on this team have no situational awareness. When a pitcher walks in a run, and you are still down by a run – with bases-loaded nobody out – there’s absolutely no reason to be swinging at a borderline slider. If the pitcher buries a fastball right down the middle so be it – but a ground ball to the infield is a sure double play with Cantu running and they got damn lucky that Wood chose to go around the horn instead of throwing home. If you intend to swing, it had better be a meatball pitch that you can drive and not one you can’t. A double play (and especially one where the first out is at home) is the worst possible outcome at that point of the game. They got away with it tonight.