O Solo Mio
Fri, Aug 8, 2008
by Geoff Young
Long-time reader LynchMob noted the other day that the Padres seem to hit a lot of solo homers. In fact, 60.9% of their home runs this season have come with no runners on base. Although that is a lot, the Padres have done worse in years past. Here are the five highest percentages of homers that were solo shots in club history:
- 1974: 66.7%
- 1973: 66.1%
- 2005: 64.6%
- 1988: 62.8%
- 2007: 61.4%
MLB average during the Padres existence has fluctuated between 54.9% and 58.8%.
How about the flip side? Which Padres teams have the five lowest percentages of home runs (i.e., more home runs with men on base)? Here you go:
- 1983: 51.6%
- 1977: 50.0%
- 1989: 50.0%
- 1976: 48.4%
- 2000: 47.8%
It’s nice to see the teams from 1976 and 2000 do so well… because that’s pretty much the only thing they did well. Of course, the ‘76 squad hit 62 homers all year, so who really cares whether anyone was on base?
Anyway, I don’t know how instructive all this stuff is, but I found it mildly interesting…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
August 8, 2008 at 8:31 am
I can never get a feel, for what a lot of solo shots mean.
1: Does it mean they are not “clutch.”
2: Does it mean they are behind a lot, and the opposition is just challenging them more, when the bases are empty.
3: Does it mean nothing?
August 8, 2008 at 8:35 am
#1@Field39: It means that the teams OBP is in the toilet…
August 8, 2008 at 8:40 am
It is nice to see at least, considering how much we whined in the past about a lack of power, that we actually HAVE THE ABILITY TO HIT FOR POWER.
And its probably more of a mix between poor OBP combined with lack of clutch hitting to explain it.
Also we hit a fair amount of lead-off HRs it seems
August 8, 2008 at 8:52 am
Where does this season rank for raw number of solo HRs? As Loren says (in #3), at least it’s nice to have some power!
August 8, 2008 at 8:53 am
GY … where do you find the stats you’ve presented today? Teach me to fish …
August 8, 2008 at 8:57 am
Man I can’t find any kind of pattern here, the team OBP for all ten years listed is all over the charts. I then though it might be a protection issues ie guys are getting better pitches to hit with men on because the have more than one power bat in the lineup and that is all over the charts as well and the OPS+ is all over the charts as well…
August 8, 2008 at 9:04 am
#4@LynchMob: of the Padres 115 HR’s this year only 45 of them have come with men on or they hit a solo shot 60.9% of the time.
You can get most of the states you need from baseball-reference.com
August 8, 2008 at 9:26 am
2 articles from FJ with interesting looks at some players in the Padre farm system …
http://www.journalgazette.net/.....0/SPORTS06 … Grady Fuson gets a few questions about the Ft Wayne Wizards
http://www.registerguard.com/c.....&fid=1 … a good look at Sawyer Carroll … he may not be the #1 Padre prospect right now, but I bet he will be in a year or 2 from now …
August 8, 2008 at 9:59 am
#1@Field39: My guess is that they’d hit a lot more HR’s with men on base if there was ever anyone on base that was a base-stealing threat.
A pitcher tends to make more mistakes when they’re worried about a guy stealing second base. I have to think that is part of it.
In this case, I think it would be interesting to bat Hairston and Gerut together in the top third of the order as often as possible for the remainder of the season since they are the only guys that might distract a pitcher when pitching to a AGON, Kouz, or Headley. Having Giles, Iguchi, or EGON on first base is not a distraction for a pitcher.
August 8, 2008 at 10:02 am
Of the Players who have hit 100+ HR’s in a Padre’s uni here is how well they did with hitting HR’s with men on:
% of solo shots:
Klesko - 48.9%
Nevin - 49.3%
Gwynn - 54.8%
Camineti - 55.4%
Colbert - 56.1%
Winfield - 61.7%
So klesko and Nevin were the only two padres with 100+ HR’s who hit more HR’s with men on then solo shots and they are the only 2 on this list to play in Petco park.
August 8, 2008 at 10:09 am
ESPN says Giles will veto a trade to the Red Sox, so as expected he’ll remain a Padre.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3525421
August 8, 2008 at 10:13 am
#9@JMAR: The numbers don’t really show that:
year SB Rank/NL
1974 85 8/12
1973 88 6/12
2005 99 14/16
1988 123 7/12
2007 55 16/16
1983 179 2/12
1977 92 7/12
1989 136 6/12
1976 92 7/12
2000 131 3/16
the SB numbers are a bit higher in the years where the Pads hit more HR’s with men on but its still kinf of all over the place…
August 8, 2008 at 10:16 am
#11@Ben B.: That’s kind of odd to me, he can basically go from a last place team to a team who has a great shot at winning the WS, make an extra 600K in the process and will most likely become a FA at the end of the season where he can return to San Diego all he has to do is spend 2 months in Boston.
August 8, 2008 at 10:45 am
#12@Steve C: I think a lack of clutch-hitting also has a lot to do with it. The Padres have not done well overall with runner on base the last few years. But I still think my theory makes sense, even if the numbers don’t show it. Distract the pitcher from the batter, he’s more likely to make a mistake.
#11@Ben B.: Here is a question that Jeff Dotseth raised on 1360 radio this morning. What kind of competitive fire do guys really have that are blocking trades to go to a team that has a chance to play in the post-season?
Maybe he’s right. Even though Maddux has a World Series ring and has pitched in a ton of post-season games and Giles has been in a World Series with the Indians, if they are passing up just a few weeks out of the season to play on another contender, maybe they just don’t have that competitive fire anymore. I’m just saying, this Padre team has definitely lacked any sort of life this season. Maybe this is a reason. Guys are coming to play here because they like living here and don’t care as much about winning and going to the post-season. It would be different if they were younger and thought the Padres were close to being a contender, but that’s not the case.
August 8, 2008 at 10:54 am
#14@JMAR: Maddux, Giles, Clark all came here to retier not to win a WS. The thing that bugs me about Giles not leaving is that it will take major league AB’s away from Venable and possibly Huffman over the next 6 weeks.
With Maddux I kind of understand why he does not want to leave, his wife and kids are close by and at this point in his career he cares more about being with them than winning a WS but Giles is a bachelor so I doubt he wants to stay to be close to his famely for the next 2 months.
August 8, 2008 at 10:55 am
#14@JMAR: Can you or anyone else, site out one example of Brian Giles mailing it in?
August 8, 2008 at 10:55 am
If I were Giles, I would go… and not for the money. I could easily come back in the offseason. Perhaps he thinks that Boston will pick up his option and that it would end up being a longer term commitment?
August 8, 2008 at 10:57 am
Steve, an unmarried man can still have family and friends. A wife and kids are only one part of an extended family, especially in a family as tight-knit as I have heard the Giles family is… (That being based on people who knew him in high school.)
August 8, 2008 at 10:58 am
#16@Field39: Mailing it in and not having a desire to play for a WS title are not the samething.
#17@Rich Campbell: He could make it a term of the trade that Boston can not pick up his option.
August 8, 2008 at 11:00 am
#16@Field39: Yes, he just blocked a trade to a team that is in the middle of the most exciting pennant race in baseball.
Seriously, I can’t think of a time. The guy plays hard and can still contribute but I just can’t understand the reasoning behind him blocking this move. Who’s passing up a chance to go from a team with the worst record in baseball to play for the World Series champs? That seems crazy to me.
August 8, 2008 at 11:01 am
#18@Rich Campbell: Yeah but keeping in touch with Friends and family for 2 months is totally different from being away from your wife and kids for 2 months. I’m really close with my parents and sister as well as most of my friends but I would be ok with leaving for 2 months if I had a shot at winning a WS, when you factor my wife into the equation it gets a lot more murky.
August 8, 2008 at 11:04 am
#17@Rich Campbell: I don’t see why it would’ve benefited the Red Sox to pick up his option in ‘09. They already have two very good, well-paid corner outfielders. It would have been two months maximum in Boston and then he could have come back to SD.
August 8, 2008 at 11:05 am
#14@JMAR: You know why the team has lacked fire this year? Because they’ve lost 60% of their games. If they were winning 60% of their games, we’d be raving about their competitive fire.
Giles is going to be back next year. It’s very reasonable to expect the team to compete next year. Maybe he’s dedicated to help this team win again instead of bailing on them when times have gotten rough. Maybe he doesn’t want to be reduced to a part time player when he’s been one of the 15 best players in the league this year. It’s totally ridiculous to accuse the best player on the team, who is notorious for his hard-nosed play, of lacking fire, leading to the team losing.
August 8, 2008 at 11:08 am
Also Giles could have blocked a chance for the Padres to possibly improve next year, we don’t know what the Pads could have got in return for Giles but I would imagine it would be some kind of usable piece (prob a AAA bullpen arm that would do well in petco) but also by saving them $6 mil in payroll they could have possibly used that to sign a 4th/5th starter and/or more productive bench player for the 09 season….
August 8, 2008 at 11:11 am
#23@Ben B.:The sox prob would have moved Drew to CF and Giles would be the full time RF or DH if Ortiz was hurt, I doubt he would get much less playing time than he would here especially in Sept when the Pads pull everyone up from AAA to see who can play and who can’t.
August 8, 2008 at 11:16 am
#24@Steve C: And if all the Padres players agreed to play for the league minimum the Padres could go out and sign every free agent to build an awesome team. And yet those greedy players just don’t go for it. I guess they don’t want to play for a World Series contender.
August 8, 2008 at 11:21 am
#26@Ben B.: Where in my post did I say this was about greed? Giles would make more by going to Boston and would prob make the same if he came to the Pads in 9 but the Red Sox would be picking up 3 mil of his 09 salary freeing up at least 3 mil in the pads 09 payroll. Giles could prob get a 2 year 12 mil contract out of the pads with a vesting option for 2011 if he went to Boston and came back as a FA. My point was that by blocking the trade he is blocking a chance for the Pads to improve in 09, not saying that they will but it will at least give them a few options to choose from.
August 8, 2008 at 11:24 am
I think one of the main reasons why Giles is blocking as well is so that he does not lose his 10/5 status for 2009.
August 8, 2008 at 11:29 am
#23@Ben B.: I guess none of us will really know why he blocked it until he’s interviewed, probably later today. I’m sure he’ll mention that all of those reasons as part of it. He only knows one way to play and he’ll do that whether his team is winning or losing, so I don’t question his toughness and competitiveness on the field, but wouldn’t it be much more meaningful to break up a double play or come up with a clutch base-hit in the playoffs. For a player in the twilight of his career to not want to go play in that environment is hard to understand.
Here’s another question that will come up soon. With the way free agent-to-be Jody Gerut is playing lately, his price tag is probably rising. Would they be able to pick up Giles’ option and sign Gerut?
August 8, 2008 at 11:29 am
Damn Giles, I thought he was a team player! (somewhat of a joke).
What’s tough about this is that he torpedoed a chance for the Padres to greatly improve for the future — not only for what they get in return in trade but for the “race” for Strasburg.
August 8, 2008 at 11:33 am
#29@JMAR: I dont think they will re-sign Gerut because he will prob get a 3 year deal somewhere and the Pads won’t be willing to do that. Also it would be buying high and we all know how the Pads feel about that…
August 8, 2008 at 11:34 am
#27@Steve C: What I’m trying to say, beyond the snark, is, we expect players to be motivated by money. They sign with the team offering the most money in almost every case, just like every other human on the planet. We don’t expect players to take pay cuts in order to free up more salary to spend improving the team. We don’t expect players to only sign with playoff contending teams in the offseason. If Giles had to take a $4 million pay cut to get traded to the Red Sox, we wouldn’t expect him to agree to that. Well, for Giles, clearly the benefits of living in San Diego mean more to him than the money. If we wouldn’t expect him to take a pay cut to help the team, then it makes no sense to expect him to give up living in San Diego to help the team, which is worth more to him than the money and is semi-protected in his contract through his partial no trade clause. And he probably feels the best way he can help the team is by staying here and continuing to play well, since he has been the best player on the team.
I agree with you that trading Giles for salary relief and a marginal prospect then resigning him in the offseason does help the Padres the most, but I think it’s unreasonable to expect Giles to help facilitate that deal. My strongest objection came to JMAR’s insinuation that the reason the Padres were losing this year was Giles not caring enough about winning.
August 8, 2008 at 11:36 am
It just goes to show that for some players, winning isn’t really that important. Not sure that I can blame Giles though, he’d be travelling across the country, maybe to a city he doesn’t like (and who can blame him, I wouldn’t want to be surrounded by Massholes either) and might not be a starting player (if they don’t want to play Drew in CF).
Sure, it’s frustrating for us, especially considering the Red Sox most likely wouldn’t pick up his option so he could end up back here anyway. I don’t think that you could say that it’s only about the money since the Padres are going to pick up his option and the Red Sox wouldn’t, so he’s probably costing himself money in the long-term.
August 8, 2008 at 11:42 am
#31@Steve C: Gerut sounds like he really wants to stay in San Diego, so I bet he does. I don’t think any other team is going to offer a ton of money to someone with such a sketchy track record, even if he is having an awesome season.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
August 8, 2008 at 11:42 am
#32@Ben B.: Right but my point was that Giles gets paid the same amount either way so money is not the factor. What gets me is that he only has to be away from San Diego for 2 months (which is not that long when you factor how many road games the pads have left in the season) to get one last shot at winning a world series ring, by staying with the Pads that was prob he prettymuch gave up his last shot at winning a WS ring. Thats what makes me question if he cares more about winning or just haning out around SD…if the hunger to win the WS is gone then should the pads really think of him as the best example for thier younger players? which is the main reason why they want to pick up his option in 09.
August 8, 2008 at 11:49 am
#34@Ben B.: you never know teams do some kooky things at times… I could see a team like the Rangers, Mariners or Oriels giving him a three year deal. Its not that he was inconsistent over the years it was that he was hurt and kept coming back too soon, he has proven that he is healthy now and has been productive in one of the toughest parks to hit in so I think some team will offer him 2 years 12 mil with a vesting option for a third. Which would be a steal IMO but I dont think the Pads would match it.
August 8, 2008 at 11:50 am
#30@Schlom: They’re doing just fine in the ‘Strasburg race’ with Giles. They’re currently tied with the Nats.
August 8, 2008 at 11:56 am
#34@Ben B.: The CF market is pretty bare. Someone might throw some stupid money his way. I think they should try to sign him now before they end up bidding against a team with a much bigger budget than they do.
August 8, 2008 at 11:57 am
#37@JMAR: Yes, but that was without Chris Young pitching for a long stretch. Now that he’s back they need to make a move to counteract that.
I wonder if Hairston can still play an acceptable 2B — or at least as good (or bad) as Edgar can?
By keeping Giles (and Hairston in the OF) they have way too many outfielders this season so they won’t be able to see what Venable can do at the major league level. I’m interested to see how he can play up here. If they are going to suck, I’d at least like to see them doing it with young players.
August 8, 2008 at 11:58 am
Maybe they aren’t worth the time mentioning, but these animals commenting on the UT Padres blog site about Giles being a “baby” or a “whiner” because he doesn’t want to leave his family make me ill. Some sick puppies out there…..
August 8, 2008 at 12:01 pm
#35@Steve C: The main reason they want to pick up his option for 2009 is he’ll likely be better than any replacement option at that salary. The good approach and all that is nice but mostly irrelevant. Giles is still a very good player.
I don’t get this questioning his hunger for winning. He obviously works hard to stay in shape and gives everything when he’s playing. Isn’t that what you do to win? How does wanting to win a World Series manifest itself in ways other than that? Who cares if he’s giving it everything because he loves baseball instead of because he wants to win a World Series?
August 8, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Wow, there’s a whole lot of psychoanalyzing a guy nobody actually knows. He put Boston on his NT list for a reason. He exercised his contractual right. For all we know, Towers didn’t like the package Boston offered and asked Giles to invoke the NTC so as not to damage the relationship between the front offices. All we DO know is that he blocked the trade. Speculation about his will to win or his character is baseless. He’s a veteran player on a losing team who is still grinding it out despite a bum shoulder and leg. He’s committed to being a Padre. He’s so committed to being a Padre he signed a below-market deal AND turned down a trade to ESPN’s Poster Boys. Does anyone really think the organization would consider him a bad role model now?
August 8, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Giles is really under-appreciated. It’s amazing to see him mentioned in the same sentence as a Triple A pitcher or No. 4 or 5 starter. Or questions about picking up his option.
Having Giles next season is third in importance only to having Gonzalez and Peavy next season. And since those players are locked up, not only should they pick up his option, but he will be a major bargain at that price.
Giles is not a player at the end. He is an All-Star level player.
As for blocking a trade, isn’t it possible that Giles wants to win a World Series as much or more than any other player? But going to the Red Sox for two months and possibly being a bench player would be sort of like vulturing a World Series. It wouldn’t mean as much. He would barely be part of the team.
Maybe he has something against Boston. There is a reason, good or bad, that he has the Red Sox on his list of teams.
I applaud what Maddux and Giles have done this season. They are veterans who have earned the right to say where they want to play, and they have exercised that power this season.
August 8, 2008 at 12:07 pm
#42@Tom Waits: Word.
August 8, 2008 at 12:08 pm
#36@Steve C:
#38@JMAR: Yeah, I have a really tough time getting a handle on Gerut’s value. He’s suddenly so much better this year than he’s ever really been in the past, and playing a very good centerfield too. Nothing in his line really screams fluke, and if you add his minor league time and his winter ball time, he’s had over 500 at bats of excellent performance. But … who is suddenly drastically better at age 30 after missing two years with injuries?
August 8, 2008 at 12:09 pm
#40@JP: People have said the same thing about Maddux. At some level owners have to be happy when fans react that way; it fits in well with an often one-sided view of loyalty. Both players received NTC in lieu of more money. The Padres loved it at the time.
August 8, 2008 at 12:10 pm
#43@Kevin: Word, in return.
August 8, 2008 at 12:16 pm
#45@Ben B.: I don’t know that he is drastically better than his rookie season - and who is to say that he wouldn’t have been performing at this level for the last 3 years if he wasn’t hurt?
August 8, 2008 at 12:31 pm
I assumed that Giles would block the move to Boston for purely financial reasons, and I still believe that to be the case. I figure the odds that the Padres invoke the $9 mil option are about 50/50, whereas the chance that Giles would get $9 mil in FA next year after spending that last 2 months as a part-to-3/4 timer is decidedly lower.
August 8, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Continuing the Giles argument, maybe I just don’t appreciate 6 HR’s and 37 RBI’s enough from a guy making $9 million per season as much as some people. I greatly appreciate a .400 OBP but not as much when it comes with no power or speed. Maybe that’s more valuable when you’re hitting in front of Ortiz, Bay, and Drew, but not on this team. Just my opinion.
I’m OK with Giles on the ‘09 team … if they pay him his $3 million buyout and give him another $2 million, tops. If not, I’m ready to move on and look to the future. That money would be of better use improving the pitching staff, anyways.
In addition, doesn’t it make it a bit uncomfortable for a guy to play for a team that just tried to trade him? Phil Nevin blocking the Sidney Ponson trade with Baltimore comes to mind.
August 8, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Several Padre RP’s have been on this list in recent years … but not this year …
STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 Most Helpful NL Relievers, by Inherited Runs Prevented
Player, Team, Inh Runs Prevented
Carlos Marmol, CHN, 6.3
Bob Howry, CHN, 5.3
Chris Sampson, HOU, 4.8
Damaso Marte, PIT, 4.5
Hong-Chih Kuo, LAN, 3.2
ps. UTK is free today … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7918
August 8, 2008 at 12:53 pm
#42@Tom Waits: Isn’t it obvious that he doesn’t value winning as much as other things? That’s why he isn’t going to Boston.
A lot of people (and some here) think that’s some huge character flaw or a sign that he’s just in it for a paycheck. Personally, I have no idea what motivates him. But I think we can safely say that the chance to win the World Series isn’t high up on his priority list.
August 8, 2008 at 1:13 pm
#45@Ben B.:
Gerut’s OPS +
03 - 120
04 - 97
05 - 87 (Played for 3 teams and was hurt after he left Clevland where he had an OPS + of 100)
06 - Out
07 - Out
08 - 123
I think Gerut is finnaly healthy agian more than it has just been hot all season. Also a good example of teams throwing crazy money at a guy after one good season is Garry Mathews Jr…
August 8, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Edmonds with his 3rd multi-home run game for the Cubs today against the Cardinals.
Since May 30th, he’s hit 305/414/667. That’s the best slugging percentage in the majors during that time.
August 8, 2008 at 1:19 pm
#50@JMAR:
JMAR,
Aren’t you the self-described SA uber-fan? Or am I mixing you up with Lynchmob?
August 8, 2008 at 1:23 pm
#54@Schlom:
You may go now.
August 8, 2008 at 1:24 pm
#50@JMAR: Or Nevin blocking the trade for Ken Griffy Jr…
August 8, 2008 at 1:40 pm
#40@JP: To quote our host:”Never concern yourself with the happiness of idiots.”
August 8, 2008 at 1:41 pm
#55@Stephen: No it ’s not me, although I don’t dis-like him or his philosophy. A lot of people bash him because of the team’s current struggles but I don’t think he sets the team’s limited budget and he wasn’t around when the team screwed up about 10 drafts in a row. While there are very few players that fit into the team’s philosophy on the current roster, I really like the players that will be in SD in the next few seasons (Cedric Hunter, Mitch Canham, Eric Sogard, Kellen Kulbacki, Blake Tekotte, Sawyer Carroll, Jaff Decker). These are all guys that fit into the current philosophy. Why do you ask, by the way? Because I’m not in support of Giles, a prototypical Alderson player?
August 8, 2008 at 1:44 pm
#51@LynchMob: Can you tell who’s been the most useless reliever? I’m betting that a guy with the initials CLA MEREDITH is on that list.
August 8, 2008 at 1:44 pm
#52@Schlom: Not all wins are created equal. Wanting to win in SD, his hometown team, could be more important than winning as a 2 month mercenary in Boston. Who are we to say what SHOULD mean more to him, 100 at-bats in a temporary uniform or 2500 at-bats for the team he rooted for as a child? Right now he’s doing everything he can physically do to help the Padres win games. How is it that “winning” isn’t important to him?
#50@JMAR: Considering how hard it is to post a .400 OBP in Petco, Giles is not overpaid. The rest of the team being bad doesn’t diminish his accomplishments. If he was a thin guy with 20 stolen bases, but 50 fewer points of OBP and 40 fewer points of SLG, there are lots of people (not saying you’re one of them), who would say he’s an ideal leadoff hitter.
August 8, 2008 at 1:48 pm
#60@JMAR: No. He’s been the 3rd most valuable reliever for the 2008 Padres, Turbine Dude’s dislike notwithstanding. Better than Hoffman, a lot better than Corey, better than Ledezma, Thatcher, Hensley, and Hampson.
August 8, 2008 at 1:55 pm
#61@Tom Waits: You can spin it however you want, but the ultimate in winning, a World Series title, obviously isn’t the most important thing to Giles. That’s not debatable as he’s staying in the San Diego over going to Boston.
I’m knocking him for that decision as there are probably a lot of players that would make the same decision. Who knows what I would do in that situation?
Personally, I could care less what Giles’ motivations are, as long as he helps the team. Unfortunately in this case not accepting a trade to the Red Sox hurts the Padres. That’s the only thing about this that disappoints me.
August 8, 2008 at 2:11 pm
#63@Schlom: If someone offered you a World Series ring right now, for free, would it mean anything to you or anybody else with more than three working brain cells? No. It’s almost like a non-disabled person winning a gold medal in the Special Olympics. His unwillingness to be a part-time player for two months cannot be turned into a lack of will to win.
If barely contributing to a World Series victory costs him 2-3 months with his kids, good for him that it’s less important. And as for making the Padres better…..f that. The Padres knew what they were doing when they gave him the NT clause. He’s under no obligation to give up precious time with his children to help them acquire talent when he already sees the kids less than he’d like.
We don’t know what the Red Sox were offering. One report says the talks never got beyond the preliminary stages. If all that a Giles trade accomplished was bringing in an overaged Low A reliever and a chance for another couple of losses (for the draft), it’s barely worth mentioning.
August 8, 2008 at 2:12 pm
#61@Tom Waits: I definitely don’t want to diminish his accomplishments because of the lineup’s overall lack of talent and I understand that a Juan Pierre-type in the leadoff spot is not good at all. I just don’t see him as a good fit as a leadoff hitter or a #3 hitter on this Padre team. When he started hitting the ball with some authority earlier in the season, I was pushing for him to move to the #3 hole since Kouz wasn’t doing much. But now that he’s there, he’s not a very good fit because he’s a singles hitter. 37 RBI’s from the #3 hitter??? And Gerut, Hairston, and EGON have been on base a whole lot in the last few months.
If he is on the team next season, I would want to see him in the #2 hole, surrounded by Gerut and someone else who can run and drive the ball into the gaps a lot more than Giles. Who that guy is, I have no idea.
#62@Tom Waits: I think I dislike him as much as Turbine Dude, although I did have some faith that he could turn things around this season. I believe TD was dogging him before the season started. I ran some numbers a few weeks ago because I couldn’t remember the last time the guy had a good outing. He had allowed inherited runners to score in 12 of 18 games in which he was brought in with runners on base. I think that’s pretty brutal, isn’t it?
August 8, 2008 at 2:13 pm
It wasn’t that long ago people said the same thing about Tony, when he was the main reason to watch the Padres. People said the same thing, he didn’t care about winning, he should go to a big market team where he could win and make more money and because he didn’t there was in essence a lack of something in him.
Are we so cynical about athletes we don’t admire there commitment, when they have it. Tom Waits chose a good word - mercenary.
Not everybody is wired that way, otherwise Scott Boras would be the agent for every player in the MLB.
August 8, 2008 at 2:15 pm
#66@David M: Giles is not a career Padre and he never blocked a trade (as far as I know) its a little different.
August 8, 2008 at 2:27 pm
#50@JMAR: RBIs are a function of where a player hits in a lineup and luck.
Sure A-Gon is great RBI-guy, whatever that is, because Giles is eighth-best in the NL on getting on base. His .390 on-base should not be underrated. It is the most important stat in baseball, two or three times more important than slugging percentage. In the National League, only Chipper, Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, Burrell, Conor Jackson and Theriot are better at getting on base.
Yes, his power is down. That means he is a great top of the lineup guy now, instead of a middle of the lineup guy.
$9 mil is not much money at all for an All-Star level player.
You mentioned a $3 mil buyout and another $2 mil. That’s crappy player money.
50 players are making $12 mil or more this season. Giles is among the top 50 players in baseball. Easy.
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/salaries/top50
Giles took the San Diego/hometown discount, has an on-base of .390, decides to stay, which is what his contract says to begin with, and he gets ripped for not wanting to win a World Series.
August 8, 2008 at 2:29 pm
#65@JMAR: (Giles) If you’re using RBI as an actualy measurement, and I’ve been drinking, this is going to deteriorate quickly. So let’s just not. A 124 OPS+ is very valuable.
#65@JMAR: So we’re blaming Meredith for what the pitcher before him did? He’ll never have another season like 2006. He still has an ERA+ of 102. Guys like Corey, Thatcher, and Hensley are in the SIXTIES or lower.
#66@David M: Amen.
#67@Steve C: Giles didn’t determine who drafted him or where that team traded him. Given his druthers, what reason do we have to believe that he’d have been anything BUT a career Padre?
August 8, 2008 at 2:33 pm
#66@David M: T. Gwynn played in two World Series’ with the Padres. He was a career Padre. The greatest Padre of all-time. I think he knew his legacy in this town would suffer if he were to leave and play in a World Series with another team late in his career.
Different case with Giles. That guy is definitely wired differently than most people so who knows what the deal is. His agent said that being close to his daughters is a major factor, which you have to respect. I hate being away from my kids for just a few hours. But still, don’t they have video chat or something these days? It would’ve made those two months a bit easier while he was playing in the heat of a pennant race.
August 8, 2008 at 2:34 pm
#66@David M: Good point.
Even Gwynn’s dad told him he should go elsewhere. Gwynn’s response was always, I could win one elsewhere or maybe I wouldn’t, but it wouldn’t be as special as winning one here.
August 8, 2008 at 2:36 pm
#70@JMAR: It wasn’t just late career. People were encouraging him to leave in the early 90s. Gwynn was commited to helping get the Padres to another World Series, and they did in 1998.
August 8, 2008 at 2:37 pm
#68@Kevin: OBP is not 2 to 3 times more important than SLG% whats the point of getting on base if there is no one behind you to hit you in? we can’t count on 4 walks/HBP/singles in an inning…its more likley to get a walk and a double.
August 8, 2008 at 2:40 pm
#72@Kevin: but thats when gwynn still had time to see the team improve, at this point there is no way the pads will be able to put togeather a WS calliber team before giles is done.
August 8, 2008 at 2:41 pm
#73@Steve C: It is. Most sabermetricians and those sorts of web sites say that it is. OPS is just adding two important statistics together with no weight to either one.
You sound like on-base just means walks, hbp and singles. Extra-base hits are included in on-base percentage.
August 8, 2008 at 2:42 pm
#63@Schlom: I see your logical point, that obviously Winning a World Series falls below other items on OG’s personal rankings. But it’s not just Winning a World Series. It’s how much you contribute to that win. And the idea that Giles should continue to sacrifice - he’s already given up money and stats to play in San Diego - is silly. He doesn’t owe the Padres anything more than what’s stipulated in his contract.
August 8, 2008 at 2:42 pm
#55@Stephen: I’m the SA puppet … and I’m even OK being confused with JMAR, a revolutionary in his own right
#60@JMAR: Here’s the NL “trailers” in “expected wins added” …
http://baseballprospectus.com/.....cid=394991
# NAME TEAM LG YEAR G IP WX WXL WXR WXRL LEV
1. Jason Isringhausen SLN NL 2008 40 40.7 -3.092 -2.978 -2.534 -2.401 1.28
2. Manuel Corpas COL NL 2008 52 55.3 -2.122 -1.775 -1.509 -1.203 1.31
3. Luis Ayala WAS NL 2008 57 52.7 -2.360 -1.822 -1.417 -0.929 1.58
4. Joe Thatcher SDN NL 2008 25 25.7 -1.573 -1.354 -1.136 -0.928 1.42
5. Franquelis Osoria PIT NL 2008 43 60.7 -1.634 -1.367 -1.120 -0.888 0.92
Cla comes in 9th worst on the Padres @ -0.029 … which is 82nd worst in the NL … which I think more supports what TW says in #62 …
August 8, 2008 at 2:44 pm
#74@Steve C: Well, that’s where there has been some dispute on this site.
Some think the Padres are going to lose for the next three years and should just get rid of Giles and other good, older players.
Others think they could win 85+ games next season without much offseason work. Having the bullpen fall apart and having Greene and the cathers hit like little leaguers hurt the team a lot.
August 8, 2008 at 2:50 pm
#72@Kevin: Yeah, during the fire sale, but he knew he still had another 10 years to try and win something so it’s not like he was running out of time. Giles isn’t going to be on the team when the farm team starts to produce some real talent in a few years. Maybe his outlook is much more positive for next season than mine. Although I’m still hopeful we’ll re-build the pitching staff and start to head in the right direction next year, I’m not certain how KT is going to pull that one off yet. I’m thinking this team starts to win again in 2010.
August 8, 2008 at 2:52 pm
#79@JMAR: The team could win 85 to 90 games next season. You don’t have to agree with that. The only thing that matters, really, is what the front office thinks of that. I have no idea what they think about it.
August 8, 2008 at 2:53 pm
I have to sign off now.
Long live Brian Giles.
August 8, 2008 at 2:54 pm
#74@Steve C: No on both counts.
1. Giles was part of an 89 win Padre team last year, so it’s hardly a lock that they’re doomed to lose until he’s ready to retire. The NL West division leader is 3 games over 500.
2. Gwynn stayed with the Padres for 3 years after 98, when they were running Triple A clubs on the field. In 1997 the Padres lost 86 games and Gwynn was - dang - 37 years old. What if he’d accepted a trade then?
August 8, 2008 at 2:55 pm
#75@Kevin: XBH are included in OPS but they do not get any extra credit like they do in slg%. by saying the OBP is two to three times more important than slugging means that a guys like R Theriot who has an OBP of .392 this year and a slg of .374 is more valuable than Miguel Cabrera who has a OBP of .360 but has a slg% of .513.
August 8, 2008 at 2:58 pm
#77@LynchMob: Thanks for those stats Lynch. I was certain Cla would be there. Ninth worse on the Padres doesn’t say much but this chart shows that he’s been better than 81 relievers in the NL in whatever kind of scale that is. I wonder what factors into it. I’d like to see some sort of stat for inherited runners scored. Although Tom Waits says that I’m blaming him for other pitchers’ mistakes, it is a stat that most relievers will take pride in. Stranding runners is his job. And Cla has been terrible in this category.
August 8, 2008 at 2:58 pm
#79@JMAR: Again, no. Don’t you think teams would have traded for T Gwynn in 1997, when he hit 372/409/547 at age 37 for a team that lost 86 games? If he had, that 98 season would have been a lot harder without his 133 OPS+ in right field. The same arguments people are using now with Giles would have applied equally to Gwynn.
#81@Kevin: Me too. I’m going to sink a couple of pints in honor of today’s most unappreciated player.
August 8, 2008 at 2:59 pm
#78@Kevin: Yeah I’m in the full re-build camp…Unless the Pads are willing to expand thier payroll this year (whcih they are not) there is no way they are going to get back to an 85-90 win club there are too many holes to be filled with scrap heap players and the Farm system is not ready to produce players…
August 8, 2008 at 3:02 pm
#82@Tom Waits:
1. I dont think the Pads can re-build that quickley without expanding the payroll which isn’t going to happen.
2. As far as we know Gwynn never blocked a trade. I get not wanting to play for another team long term but this is such