Mon, Dec 17, 2007
by Geoff Young
Photo by Daniel Dainty, some rights reserved.
You get the general idea of what this thing is going to look like when it’s done, but you won’t know for sure until all the pieces are in place and it’s fully operational.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
Filed under Open Thread.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Send Geoff email or comment on the article (comments are moderated).
Tags: unfinished
Possibly Related Posts
Your comments are welcome and encouraged. However, they are subject to moderation, which means that only the best will be published. By submitting comments, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to abide by the Ducksnorts Community Guidelines and Moderation Policy.
December 17, 2007 at 7:36 am
http://www.moundtalk.com/prosp.....ects-2008/
Interesting prospect list for those who question our farm system.
#20 Chase Headley 3B
#32 Matt Antonelli 2B
#56 Will Inman RHP
#79 Wade Leblanc LHP
#95 Matt Latos RHP
Five in the top 100 isnt bad. 100/30 teams = about 3 per team, so we have more than most teams. I think Inman and Leblanc will fill our 4-5 starters next year if all goes well.
December 17, 2007 at 7:48 am
Ooo-Ooo! It’s a metaphor for the Padres! I get it!
December 17, 2007 at 8:10 am
1.
It is nice to see all those guys on the list. The only problem is that list is garbage. It looks like a reader poll and the readers apparently were free basing crack in between a lot of their picks.
December 17, 2007 at 8:17 am
4. Yeah I just noticed that too after I posted it. I guess looking at the bright side it’s nice those guys made the list even though they’re not prospects from a large market team. I feel like Mets, Cubs, and Yankees prospects are always way overrated just because of fan hype.
December 17, 2007 at 8:31 am
Geoff, that ferris wheel is NEVER going to win the NL West.
December 17, 2007 at 8:38 am
the sky is so gloomy
December 17, 2007 at 8:43 am
Re: 5 ohhh its a Ferris wheel, I was gonna say thats the oddest looking windmill I have ever seen!
December 17, 2007 at 8:50 am
Interesting discussion of Edmonds in the prior blog post. I’m very disappointed if that is the final answer to the CF question. I think the discussion we had earlier in the offseason leading to options like DeJesus was promising and he would be a much better answer.
Bringing in an aging, declining, oft injured, concussion-addled CF with a left handed, extreme uppercut swing, which won’t play AT ALL in Petco, to play in one of the most defensively demanding CF in baseball, in one of the most defensively demanding divisions for a CF is an absolutely horrible idea.
But you can’t always get what you want, so hopefully he’ll be what we need, but I sincerely doubt he will be either healthy or productive and the odds he’ll be both are extremely long.
Sorry for the doom and gloom, but it is Monday morning.
December 17, 2007 at 8:54 am
Re: 8 if the Pads move Antonelli to CF then I like the Edmonds move. I dont see the Pads winning the west with Hairston/Edmonds/Giles in the OF but what it will provide a bridge to the 09 season with Headley or Kouz in LF, Antonelli in CF and Hairston in RF.
December 17, 2007 at 8:56 am
9. I’m pretty sure the Padres are going to keep Antonelli at 2b for the whole year at Portland, which I think is a good move.
I know what the Padres said at the press conferance - but you really can’t just sign a guy and say he will be jettisoned in a year.
December 17, 2007 at 9:12 am
10.
Obviously you have a better idea than I do but why do you keep saying that? It’s not even a rumor at this point KT and Sandy have both publicly stated that Matt will get a look at CF next month. If he is really as good an athlete as I have heard then it seems totally in the realm of possibility. Do you not think he can cut it out there? Also with all those 4A types we have picked up in the off-season it’s not as if Matt will be the only option at second for the AAA team. Do you know something we don’t or what? All I have heard from the front office guys is that 2nd base isn’t an important position and it’s easy to fill so it makes sense to me they take their stud athletic hitter and move him to a position that is argueably the most important. Sorry if I sound like a dick or whatever I’m just curious why you keep saying Matt isn’t moving positions when to me reading the news and looking at the FO philosophy it seems likely.
December 17, 2007 at 9:25 am
8: I know that a lot of people on the Cards blogs are probably extremely sentimental about this move, but I think the general consensus is that we’ve come out of this deal looking pretty well. You have to take that sentiment with a grain of salt, as well as with the fact that Edmonds has been saying to the local St. Louis media that he feels the best he has in quite a while.
Is Edmonds a risk? Absolutely. But at this point, so was Cameron. Cameron also would have cost us more and would have automatically missed 25 games. Cameron will probably now go somewhere like Texas or Cincinatting where he will put up better power numbers, but we know what his power potential was at Petco.
I think Edmonds brings a higher potential upside than Cameron, but I also think he’s a bigger risk to fail spectacularly. However, I do tend to trust the FO and I think we’ll be OK.
December 17, 2007 at 9:37 am
New Padres stuff at MLBTR…
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ors-n.html
December 17, 2007 at 9:45 am
Re: 13 man the Nady Rumors wont go away.
December 17, 2007 at 9:49 am
14.
I would really love to have X back. Just not for Headley!
December 17, 2007 at 9:50 am
I think it will be for Barrett, which I would love.
December 17, 2007 at 9:53 am
13: Those are potentially interesting moves being discussed there.
December 17, 2007 at 9:57 am
11: Didn’t Antonelli’s father receive word from SA that Matt was going to get some looks at CF?
December 17, 2007 at 10:00 am
I’m not sure I buy that this front office, as immersed in stats as they are, is really that interested in Nady. Everything about him screams platoon OF, and he makes too much money for that.
I’d much rather do a Barrett for McLouth deal. Better defender, better plate discipline, probably a better hitter all the way around.
December 17, 2007 at 10:02 am
18.
I doubt SA runs everything by Jack first but it’s been printed and broadcast on the radio so many times my guess is that they said something to Matt and he relayed that to his pops.
December 17, 2007 at 10:04 am
Re: 19 I agree but you have to factor in the KT player love factor.
December 17, 2007 at 10:06 am
19: Is McLouth really a good defensive OF? I’ve seen a lot of mentions of him as a terrible defender.
I just read this morning that Edmonds had been talking about 08 as his last season but that was before the trade. Also that he asked to be traded because he felt his playing time would be reduced and he’d have to be platooned. I hope he doesn’t expect 600 PAs in San Diego.
December 17, 2007 at 10:13 am
If Edmonds is healthy enough for 600 AB’s…..why wouldn’t he get them?
He’s the best defensive CF we have(not saying much, but he should be average) and it’s not like he’s going to hurt us offensively.
That .350OBP is going to be nice near the top of the order, let’s remember that power wasn’t the problem last year(and it won’t be this year either) but they were terrible at getting runners on.
December 17, 2007 at 10:14 am
19.
McLouth would be the better deal for sure but something tells me Nady keeps coming up in Padres rumors for a reason. That reason… Classic KT man crush. Bochy tore them apart before and now KT is ready to fight to get X back. Nobody, not the Pirates, Michael Barret, Scott Boras not even a better fit for the Padres is going to get in KT’s way this time. It’s a love that’s pure and true.
You gotta respect a man in love.
Unless he is the GM of your favorite baseball team and then it’s a little freaking annoying.
December 17, 2007 at 10:19 am
22.
I thought McLouth looked lost in LF in Petco last year. With that said it was just a game or 2 and from all accounts he is a decent fielder with good speed. At the least I would think he would be a better CF’r then Hairston or X if something were to happen to Edmunds (more likely then not). He has decent OBP and would easily become the fastest and best baserunner on the team. He has a little pop too and if he learned to hit the Petco gaps he could be dangerous.
December 17, 2007 at 10:21 am
25.
We would also have him for a few years. X would be a 1 year type player becasue he is coming up on FA.
December 17, 2007 at 10:22 am
22: I’ve read that McLouth is good in the corners, with a weaker arm than you’d want in right, and would be a misfit in center. Still a better defender than Nady, though.
23: If Edmonds can’t hit lefties anymore, we can’t give him 600 at-bats. He may be totally able to hit them, though. He hit them hard in 2005. It’s only the last two seasons, for 170 at-bats, that he hasn’t been able to.
December 17, 2007 at 10:22 am
11. First of all KRSI I don’t think you sounded like a jerk and I hope I don’t come off as someone spouting special “insider” information either.
One for what Antonelli could bring to the table at second base is pretty special - a nice blend of OBP/Power and athleticsm at second. However I thought then as I do now that he needed at least another half-season or better yet a full year to fully develop because I thought the Padres were going to ask him to do quite a bit - lead-off and play second base. I do think you can find other second basemen on the FA market but not like the one he has the potential to be.
He is a good enough athlete to play in CF and maybe Iguchi puts up a great season and Antonelli is forced to switch - but I just don’t see them giving him another position shift right now. The guys I’ve spoken with on the development side seemed pretty intent that this was his positon and I as I wrote in the earlier post I don’t think you can really say to Iguchi at his signing that its a one-year deal only.
Also I still think their CF of the future is Hunter and I think he will have a much better year surrounded by better talent in LE this year.
Finally what I wrote was my opinion on what I think the team will do based on writing for Madfriars this season. So I really haven’t spoken to anyone whose making the statements that you reference right now in the off-season- and things may have changed. In my opinion, and only my opinion, I don’t think they have.
December 17, 2007 at 10:29 am
28.
Thanks dude! Those are valid points and it definitely clarifies your take for me.
December 17, 2007 at 10:39 am
28: I agree with your thoughts on Antonelli. I think they’d move him if they thought it was going to be the final decision, and they’ll probably have him shag some balls just to see if he’s a natural, but now there’s not as much reason to do it.
December 17, 2007 at 11:31 am
29. Anytime.
Now lets see if my guess that the Padres will move Kouz for Bay this winter to open a spot for Headley comes true.
December 17, 2007 at 12:31 pm
I think the comments about Edmonds not being able to hit lefties anymore are probably a little premature. I mean, if there is a real reason to think that he can’t (because of injury or something) then that’s fine, but I’m not sure the data alone is enough.
It’s only like 198 PA’s and that is not all that large of a sample. If you look at Edmonds’ splits from 96 to 99, he was pretty awful against lefties (not quite this bad). Then in 2000 he crushed them … back down a bit in 01 … pretty darn good for the next 4 years … and then terrible these last two. There really isn’t a lot of predictability in one or two years of splits, at least from what I can remember reading from various studies into the issue.
December 17, 2007 at 12:41 pm
31: I sure hope not. I like Kouz. Why move him for Bay with Headley coming up?
I’d also rather have McLouth than Xavier Nady. Just not sure if the Pirates are going to give Duffy a full time job at CF. They were platooning him and it worked out well for the Buckos.
The Padres still need another arm or two to compete with the rest of the NL West.
I shudder to think of those starts that went to Wells, Germano, Stauffer, Cassel.
December 17, 2007 at 12:52 pm
Oh, one thing that rather bothers me about the Edmonds trade is the fact that the Padres skipped Barton (who might end up being the Cardinals CF) and then traded for the declining and more expensive incumbent.
I just hope I’m wrong because if I were correct, I’ll be pretty miffed.
December 17, 2007 at 12:57 pm
33.
Totally agree! We need another pitcher badly. I put little to ZERO faith into Rusch, Hensley, Cassel, Germano, Stauffer. Add Randy Wolf and his injury issues and I think we definitely need another guy. I wouldn’t mind Prior at all but someone not coming off arm surgery would be nice as well.
December 17, 2007 at 1:00 pm
34.
Another good point. I think the thing with the Cards is that they have a top CF prospect in Rasmus coming up and will probably play this year at some point (if he doesn’t make it out of spring training). I really wish they could have gotten something done for Edmunds and Reyes together.
December 17, 2007 at 1:15 pm
34: I’m pretty sure St. Louis picked before us in the Rule V, no?
December 17, 2007 at 1:31 pm
37.
I thought we bought a pick off of Tampa Bay or something like that. Technically they picked but then sent the player to us in exchange for cash. At least I think that’s how it went down. Still I think that if we wanted him we would have him.
December 17, 2007 at 1:31 pm
12: Edmonds is more than just a risk; once his age, performance trends and injury history are accounted for, he’s a HUGE risk, albeit an affordable one. How is Cameron a risk? Other than what is already known about his suspension, I don’t see how he’s a risk, and I don’t beleive he’s anywhere near as risky as Edmonds.
Cameron would have been more expensive becasue he’s much, much better! I don’t see that as an argument in favor of Edmonds or against Cameron.
Edmonds no way has a higher upside than Cameron. He’s not the defender Cameron is and he’s not going to return to his prime level of defense upon moving to Petco and the NL West. His upside in the field is adequate at best, which is still a step down from Cameron. And there is no way one can reasonably believe his upside offensively is a return to his glory days (juiced days?) in St. Louis; a level comparable to Cameron’s performance in SD is all one could expect if he EXCEEDS expectations.
I think you are being overly optimistic about what he will be able to do at 38 and given his history. BTW, I also have confidence in the front office, but I disagree with this move and would have preferred a more aggressive option such as DeJesus.
December 17, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Geoff, pretty impressive when you can post a picture of an unfinished ferris wheel and have 40 comments by early afternoon.
December 17, 2007 at 1:55 pm
39: I just had some long post comparing the offensive and defensive numbers between the two over the past 4 years and their careers that somehow was eaten, but the gist of it is as follows:
Despite declining over the past 4 years, Edmonds still posts a higher average OPS+ while appearing in more games. I picked a 4-year period since they both suffered pretty bad injuries in the past 4 years. Cameron’s average defensive numbers the last 4 years are marginally better than Edmonds’, but his RF9 from last year was lower than Edmonds’.
December 17, 2007 at 2:14 pm
20: Sarcasm, huh? Thanks. Just for the record, I could have sworn I saw a post from Matt’s dad where he mentioned having an email reply from SA concerning Matt taking some reps in CF. I really didn’t pay that much attention, but I figure that if SA is providing that information to his dad, then there might be something to it. Of course, I may have my posts confused.
Oh, and yup, I doubt that SA passes everything by Matt’s Dad too.
December 17, 2007 at 2:44 pm
#40: Hey, who doesn’t love a ferris wheel. Maybe next time we’ll try balloon animals…
December 17, 2007 at 3:02 pm
31: Kouz for Bay to make room for Headley at 3B could happen, but given the front office’s penchant for cost-effective (which some might call cheap) moves, it doesn’t seem logical.
If they’re as high on Headley as they appear to be, why not just keep Kouz (and his second-year salary) and convert Headley (and his rookie minimum salary) into your left-fielder?
December 17, 2007 at 3:02 pm
John, I think it’s more likely that Antonelli plays CF rather then 2B for the Padres. They will obviously have an opening next season (and probably a good chance there’s going to be an opening in 2008). Towers and Alderson also believe that it’s very easy to find someone to play 2B (the reason they traded Barfield for Kouz). You might be right in that Hunter is the CF of the future, but he’s at least 3 years away from potentially being the Opening Day CF.
December 17, 2007 at 3:35 pm
I don’t like this about converting highly valued infield prospects into less valuable outfield prospects. Headley’s and Antonelli’s bats represent much more of a benefit (in terms of VORP) at 3rd base and 2nd base than left and center field. Antonelli only became such a highly lauded prospect when he switched to 2B, a generally non-offensive position. The fact that the Pads insisted on only a 1 year contract for Iguchi seems to speak volumes that Antonelli is the 2B of the future.
As for Headley, in a perfect world, the Padres would trade him for an equally highly regarded CF prospect in another organization and thus not undercut his value by turning him into a weak-fielding LF. Don’t think KT isn’t looking into it.
I’m also not crazy about the idea of trading Kouz. By the end of last year, it had become clear that he is going to be a successful major leaguer. Headley shows nothing but potential, and we should have learned by now not to count that as a sure thing (see R. Rivera, S. Burroughs, J. Barfield)
December 17, 2007 at 4:29 pm
46: I agree with Brian that in a perfect world for Padres fans we would trade Headley to Seattle for Adam Jones. Playing Headley for a year in the OF will likely decrease his trade value. If the Padres do not want to commit to him as a long-term answer in LF, they should trade him now.
December 17, 2007 at 5:54 pm
If you guys need an answer about what they are going to to with Matt just ask. First I dont think that the Padres front office would contact me about what their plans are with Matt. I can tell you that I heard from what I thought was a great source during Arizona Fall League that second base job was Matts job to lose but that sure changed.
December 17, 2007 at 6:06 pm
46
I would think he became a highly lauded prospect when after 1 full season Antonelli hit over 300 with 21 homeruns and 28 stolen bases but than again Im his dad.
December 17, 2007 at 6:29 pm
49: Shoot, maybe I mixed up my posts. So, it wasn’t your post that mentioned hearing from SA about Matt playing some in CF?
Also, where are you in Boston? I’m in Cambridge.
December 17, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Peabody
December 17, 2007 at 7:04 pm
Cool. If we get any big Pads games this year, we should all meet up (there is also a ‘Steve from Boston’ that posts here regularly). Padres fans on the East Coast are few and far between….
December 17, 2007 at 7:22 pm
I’m in D.C., from North Carolina. Padres fan since 1983.
December 17, 2007 at 7:30 pm
53: Kevin - hard to say when I’ve been a Pads fan since (born 1976…moved to VaBeach in 1984… moved to Atlanta 1991), but I can definitely compliment you on staying a Pads fan while in DC. Still, the fact is that you have your own Padres website, which I can’t help but think is awesome. Keep the faith, man! BTW - if from NC (where my wife is from and where I went to college), how did you become a padres fan?
December 17, 2007 at 7:39 pm
Okay, finally figured out where I went wrong:
————————————-
Mark Ase Says:
December 12, 2007 at 11:16 am
From Alderson this morning, yeah he actually answered one of my emails:
Antonelli is being discussed in CF, due to lack of options but it is a reluctant move on their part.
If the season started today Headley and Hairston would be in a platoon in LF
———————
I had associated that with the realization that “jack from Boston” was Matt’s Dad and clearly I crossed my streams…..
Dr. Egon Spengler: There’s something very important I forgot to tell you.
Dr. Peter Venkman: What?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Don’t cross the streams.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Why?
Dr. Egon Spengler: It would be bad.
Dr. Peter Venkman: I’m fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing. What do you mean, “bad”?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.
Dr Ray Stantz: Total protonic reversal.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Right. That’s bad. Okay. All right. Important safety tip. Thanks, Egon.
December 17, 2007 at 7:45 pm
Okay, a natural question is: Who is Mark Ase and why is SA answering his emails?
December 17, 2007 at 8:00 pm
I was a Dodgers fan when I became a baseball fan in 1981. My favorite player was Steve Garvey. When he left, I left. I was nine years old.
December 17, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Great take on the steroids issue:
http://www.black20.com/virals/?s=348
December 17, 2007 at 8:04 pm
57: Gotcha, I still remember the day (in SD) that Garvey was announced as a member of the Padres. Seemed important then, though I was hardly able to understand the magnitude at the time. Keep up the great work on your site.
December 17, 2007 at 8:10 pm
58: I’ve had my suspicions about Air Bud, Jim Duggan, and Enrico Pallatzo for quite some time………
December 17, 2007 at 8:12 pm
I lost it when I first saw that video. You catch more jokes every time you see it.
December 17, 2007 at 8:13 pm
Since people have been complaining about the Padres lack of free agent activity, Steve Garvey is still the biggest splash they have made in that regard.
December 17, 2007 at 8:15 pm
Where is your wife from in North Carolina?
December 17, 2007 at 8:16 pm
62: I would agree, save Kevin Brown. My wife is from Charlotte, which is where we’ll be spending the holidays. I went to Davidson College (played Soccer and Baseball) which is right outside of Charlotte.
December 17, 2007 at 8:21 pm
Kevin Brown was acquired via trade. Not free agency.
I went to N.C. State. Davidson is cool. I love watching Stephen Curry.
December 17, 2007 at 8:26 pm
65L: Hmmmm, okay, I’ll take your word for it. I really can’t remem ber how the Pads got K Brown.
Yup, big grudge match between the Cats and the Pack in just a few days. Truthfully, Curry is WAY too good to be at Davidson. That being said, I think we can actually take you guys this year.. Am I crazy? Curry’s a stud.
I played baseball against NC State (and lost badly) my Sophomore year. Quizacally, it was the attack of Mothra… seriously, some ridiculously huge moth attacked our pitcher during that game (at NC State). I was at 3rd base and I couldn’t stop laughing.
December 17, 2007 at 8:27 pm
Oh, and my wife went to UNC…. still, her two best friends went to NC State, so we root for them when we arent’ crossing streams….
December 17, 2007 at 8:43 pm
66: Derek Lee etc.
December 17, 2007 at 8:46 pm
68: Yup, I have an awful memory. Okay, Vikes are 8 and 7. I feel WAY better about our loss now than I did then…..
December 17, 2007 at 8:46 pm
LETS GO BOLTS!
December 17, 2007 at 8:53 pm
December 15, 1997: Traded by the Florida Marlins to the San Diego Padres for Derrek Lee, Rafael Medina, and Steve Hoff (minors).
December 17, 2007 at 8:55 pm
Davidson will beat State this year. State had big preseason expectations, but they are playing poorly. They have myriad problems.
Curry was not offered a scholarship at any ACC school, including Virginia Tech, his dad Dell’s school.
December 17, 2007 at 9:15 pm
By the way, can you get to my site now? I think it’s down, and it’s pissing me off.
December 18, 2007 at 12:42 am
52: I’m another east coast Padres fan as of September. Stuck out here in Connecticut with far too many Yankees and Red Sox fans.
73: It’s working for me. Loving the Mitchell spoof, btw.