False Expectation
Tue, Sep 25, 2007
by Geoff Young
For the working magician, the best tool in his toolbox is a little thing we like to call the false expectation. If played right, it can stun an audience into total submission.
Need a break from the current season? My article on the ‘73 amateur draft is now up at Hardball Times. Where’s Dave Winfield when you need him…
“What About Bob,” the tenth episode of the regrettably short-lived Dresden Files, opens with Harry’s father receiving word that he’s landed a job on a cruise ship. Moments later, after telling young Harry the good news, the father suffers a heart attack and dies.
False expectation.
Seems like only yesterday the Padres had a seven-game winning streak and an intact outfield. Now they’ve got a four-game losing streak and an inadequate supply of duct tape.
The latest addition is Jason Lane, who has come over from Houston in exchange for a player to be named or cash. Lane is expected to join the Padres in San Francisco on Tuesday, along with minor leaguers Chase Headley and Drew Macias, who have been recalled from Double-A San Antonio.
If you’re keeping score at home, this gives the Padres an outfield of Brady Clark, Brian Giles, Scott Hairston, Terrmel Sledge, Lane, and Macias. Only three of these guys were on the roster before September, so if the Padres manage to reach the playoffs, presumably we’ll see Giles in center field?
Of course, that is a pretty big “if,” given that the current rotation consists of Jake Peavy and a whole lot of pitchers who aren’t getting the job done. If they can’t contain the Giants (4.18 R/G), how will they fare in Milwaukee against a real offense (4.91 R/G)?
I miss the seven-game winning streak. I miss Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron. I miss the pre-injury version of Chris Young.
I miss Dresden Files.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 25, 2007 at 7:59 am
I would imagine that the Pads will need to go atleast 4-2 in this last stretch to even have a shot at the wild card. Either way atleast they will kept it interesting untill the end.
Well win or loose these next 6 games this off season will be interesting, the Pads will need to do alot to keep up with the Rockies and D-backs who will both get better next year.
September 25, 2007 at 8:14 am
Not that I’m pissed to see Headley called up but what are they planning on doing with him? With Ensberg on the bench I don’t really get it unless they are planning on trying that Headley or Kouz in Left Field thing we have been wondering about all year long and I’m about 99.9% sure that’s not the case.
Man I hope we can just get some wins. We need a boost tonight. Maybe a come from behind win or something like that to get these guys spirits on an upswing or something!
September 25, 2007 at 8:16 am
Here is to hoping they plan on playing Hairston in CF and throwing Headley in LF….I know that won’t happen but they did need some able bodies to pinch hit at least. Given that it is currently september no MLB team should be running out of players if a game goes into extra innings.
September 25, 2007 at 8:17 am
I knew Milton Bradley was bad news and was sorry we acquired him. Of course then he went crazy and carried the team offensively whenever he was healthy enough to be in the lineup. But his true colors have come through now. How brittle do you have to be to tear your ACL while arguing with an umpire? And to top it off I’m seeing coverage which says he stepped on Cameron’s hand causing his injury. The guy is Bad Luck and I’m now really sorry we picked him up.
September 25, 2007 at 8:22 am
In a week we’ll know how this all ends up. Hopefully we’ll be in the post season. Think back at all those games we could’ve won but scored no runs. We could be up by 8 games right now.
September 25, 2007 at 8:30 am
4: That’s ridiculous. You’re blaming Milton for stepping on Cameron’s hand? How about respecting the both of them for still going balls out on a tough play in a game that was already a foregone conlcusion.
I’m so sick of the people coming out of the woodwork and saying, “See, I knew Bradley was a horrible idea.” I call complete BS. If Mike Winters isn’t at first base yesterday, we still have Bradley. It’s not like the guy just decided to end his season prematurely. He was BAITED into action. If this had been any of our other players that lost it, everyone would be furious at the umpires. But no, since it’s Milton Bradley, who has a storied past, he MUST be at fault.
With this kind of attitude, it’s a wonder anyone convicted of a crime ever manages to function in society again.
September 25, 2007 at 8:35 am
2, 3: I expect Headley and Macias are deep reserve ammunition. Next to no chance that they start while we’re still alive, or that they’ll move Kouz to LF now. He’s hitting too well to mess with him. I’m more shocked they didn’t call up an arm. Black has to manage out-by-out now.
4: If we hadn’t acquired Bradley, our season would already be over. Cameron was hurt much worse by Carlos Beltran, who nobody characterizes as bad news. His ACL may have been hanging on by a thread, though. It didn’t look like his cleat caught or anything.
We’re going to face the same major problem this winter as last. We have above-average players at most positions. It’s hard and expensive to go from above-average to great.
September 25, 2007 at 8:45 am
MB was a gamble that paid early but came round to bit us. Actually, we won 7 in a row w/o Jenga, so the loss of Camy is more of a concern. But ultimately, its the pitching that has stumbled. Young and Mad Dog are struggling at the wrong time, and we can’t score for Peavy. I don’t even know the other two dudes. The bully is holding well. We still have a shot, but instead of being in the driver’s seat, we need the help of some other teams, other teams that are scheduling their off season rounds of golf already.
September 25, 2007 at 8:50 am
4.
Don’t be sorry that we picked up Milton. Considering we most likely wouldn’t be in this situation without MB I think you are way off base. Yeah the guy is a dick, we all know that. We all took that into account when we picked him up for scraps. If I remember correctly though before he was playing for us we were lucky to have a 3 hit night against someone’s 5th starter. We bought low on him so anything we got was basically a bonus and I think we got a lot from him. IMO he was a total sucess. I would love if he wouldn’t have gone Milton and was still around but it’s not as if we invested anything special or are paying him a boat load of money. We can’t say that we didn’t know this could happen and we also probably can’t say that we would be in the position we are in without his help.
Also, not that I don’t blame Milton for his actions (because he is totally at fault for not controlling himself) but if there would have been an umpire on 1st that was content with doing his job and not acting like a complete un-professional idiot then we would just be talking about Cammy.
I’m worried about Cameron the most we could have dealt with Hairston or Clark in left but trying to replace gold glove defense in center is going to be tough.
September 25, 2007 at 9:01 am
Guys, here’s the thing. Yes, Milton went off on the 1B umpire. Yes, Milton had to be restrained which resulted in his injuring his leg. Yes, he’s had run-ins (to put it mildly)…
HOWEVER, the umpires are REQUIRED to do what they can to control the game, to minimize outbursts, to keep the game flowing. That’s their job. The home plate umpire had no business even asking Milton if Milton had thrown the bat in his direction. And if the 1B umpire really thought Milton HAD thrown the bat in the 5th inning, he should have tossed Milton then.
Guys, this started LONG before Milton got to 1B and long before Milton EVER opened his mouth.
Milton may display actions that a lot of us do not approve of (bowing to crowds, his animated batting-gloves removal, etc.), but he’s been a model citizen since coming here.
Furthermore, I sick of all the people criticizing him. What would you do if someone called you an “F….ing piece of S…”?
September 25, 2007 at 9:03 am
6: Acually he did decide to do it. Winters may have instigated it, but its still Bradleys choice to respond to it and not just ignore it.
September 25, 2007 at 9:16 am
Personally? I would assume that the “F…ing piece of S…” who made those remarks isn’t worth my time or energy.
September 25, 2007 at 9:18 am
12: Exactly
OT: If we end up tied with the Phills for the WC, we play a 1 game playoff at Petco right?
September 25, 2007 at 9:25 am
13: That is correct. I’d rather play at Philly, where our bats seems to really thrive.
September 25, 2007 at 9:29 am
10.
I really don’t want to Milton bash here but I do blame him for not keeping his cool. If someone called me an “f-ing piece of S” I’d probably have some choice words and potentially some fists for them. With that said if I was with my daughter or my wife I would love to think that I might think of them first and bow out of it just like I wish Milton would have done with the team. If Milton was paying attention in the anger management classes I believe he was ordered to attend after that incident in LA he might have learned a thing or 2 about how to handle a situation like what happened sunday.
The ump is a total piece of S in my book for doing what he did and acting like a freaking heckling fan but Milton deserves the blame he’s getting for not controlling himself. With his past he of all people should be able to recognize what was happening and step away form it.
September 25, 2007 at 10:18 am
14: I agree. We played well in Philly
September 25, 2007 at 10:30 am
I was glad to read in the UT that Milton is going to finally get help for his emotional problems. What he did was utterly ridiculous - we should in no way rationalize it or make excuses for that sort of behavior.
September 25, 2007 at 10:34 am
One thing to be mildly optimistic about –the Nats are playing decent ball and could possibly take 1 of 3 in Philly in the final series while the Bravos are currently visiting Philly and could take 2 of 3. We could go 3-3 and still tie Philly –4-2 would be optimum.
September 25, 2007 at 10:39 am
17. You didn’t read closely enough. Those comments from Milton about seeking help were after an incident in 2004. Guess it didn’t go so well?
September 25, 2007 at 10:42 am
Macias is probably defense only.
I’m guessing the reason we didn’t bring Boca back instead is because he probably won’t be back next year.
Headley off the bench is nice. Anything is better than OSCAR ROBLES up in a big spot. Nauseating!!!
September 25, 2007 at 10:43 am
I still would prefer LeBlanc to Cassel for the Thursday start. Maybe even Stauffer…
September 25, 2007 at 10:45 am
And one final note - Dresden was a great show.
September 25, 2007 at 10:46 am
Stauffer = never to be heard from again. You only get so many chances to completely show the organization you’re garbage.
September 25, 2007 at 10:54 am
On a lighter note, for fun, say the Padres clinch something by Saturday night. What does your ideal Sunday lineup look like? I’ll start.
SP — Tomko (It’s his turn in the rotation)
C — Morton (Just no curveballs, please)
1B — Myrow (Hey, he’s the PCL batting champion, show respect)
2B — Stansberry (Making Saudi Arabia proud)
SS — Robles (Would you rather see Blum?)
3B — Headley (You’re 2008 Opening Day … something)
LF — Lane (You’re 2008 Opening Day left fielder)
CF — Macias (Because you won’t see him in 2008)
RF — B. Giles (Someone has to lead the Padres JV).
Thoughts?
September 25, 2007 at 11:01 am
Vote for Ducksnorts as best sports blog….. go to http://www.bloggerschoiceawards.com, register, you’ll need to be confirmed by mail, return to the site, log in, submit “ducksnorts”,scroll to bottom and pull down best sports blog,click, and use the yellow vote button…..a personal way to get SD some recognition as well as thank Geoff for his good work.
September 25, 2007 at 11:10 am
21: Stauffer??? Cassel has done fine. I am more worried about CY’s potential start in Milwalkee
24: No giles, go with Hairston
September 25, 2007 at 11:25 am
Props for the Dresden Files reference, Geoff. Was bummed that it got cancelled.
September 25, 2007 at 11:33 am
Anyone else get this email?
CONGRATULATIONS! YOU HAVE BEEN SELECTED FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO PURCHASE TICKETS TO POTENITAL 2007 DIVISION SERIES GAMES AT PETCO PARK.
I havent decided if I should buy tickets or not with the way they are playing, a win tonight may change my mind.
September 25, 2007 at 11:39 am
re 13: What determines where the 1-game playoff is held?
September 25, 2007 at 11:43 am
29: Coin toss
September 25, 2007 at 11:52 am
ESPN noted in an article today that Lane has feasted on the Milwaukee starters. They expect Lane to get a lot of time during the final four days.
September 25, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Is Cameron out for the season or just the regular season? I’ve read differing reports on that although some of the “out for just the rest of the regular season” reports might just be wishing by the Pads FO.
If the Padres make the playoffs, they can replace any players that were on the DL as of August 31st with another player. The Angels used this loophole in 2002 to put Francisco Rodriguez on their postseason roster. I think that Shawn Estes falls under this category.
September 25, 2007 at 12:11 pm
32: Hard to say. Khalil tore a ligament in his finger last year, and that took him 2 full months to recover.
September 25, 2007 at 1:14 pm
4 … are you sure you don’t want to blame Barrett for all this? It seems a viable option at this point … join Milton in the “blame someone else” parade! It’s stunning what a mess this is … how much blame there is to spread around … I kinda hope the home plate ump gets more than a slap on the wrist for his involvement in this …
GY, I think you sum’d up this tragedy for me by writing this …
I miss the seven-game winning streak. I miss Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron. I miss the pre-injury version of Chris Young.
Sigh …
September 25, 2007 at 1:45 pm
LM, I blame Barrett, too. Michael Barrett, Milton Bradley, MB and MB. Coincidence? I think not.
September 25, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Christ I forgot about Barrett and the Barrett Curse Cubfan warned us about and look, its TRUE!. Cubs are on there way (almost) and Padres are struggling. Creepy. Next two games are key (is that like a Friedman unit). We should win over an inferior team. Phils win two, then its still a tie, and so on. I suspect a battle down to the last game Sunday, for which we are saving Peavy I hope.
September 25, 2007 at 2:13 pm
33: Khalil has never exactly been a fast healer
September 25, 2007 at 2:21 pm
35 … ROTFLOL!!! At this point, I’m trying to move this in my mind from tragedy to comedy … I got laugh at something … just gotta …
September 25, 2007 at 2:32 pm
#25: Thanks, Malcolm; much appreciated! Here is the direct link:
http://www.bloggerschoiceaward.....show/28914
I’ve also added a badge to the right sidebar.
September 25, 2007 at 2:35 pm
36: Props for busting out the FU. Although I feel more confident about our chances in the Wild Card than I do about the Surge working.
…apologies for the politicalness..
September 25, 2007 at 2:35 pm
Continuing in our negative tones………….Anybody think Phil Nevin sucks on the Padres BP show? He can’t get a cohesive thought out.
September 25, 2007 at 2:42 pm
That was bad English myself….I apologize Phil.
September 25, 2007 at 2:45 pm
I’m also a lot more worried about our pitching than our outfield. Maddux looks like worn down, he really needs to rest until the playoffs but we can’t afford that. CY has obviously been terrible but I thought it was a good move to leave him in last night to soak up a few innings and try to work some things out. I’d love to see Tomko step up and be the pitcher that his arm says he should be for just a couple of weeks.
I actually feel some sympathy for Bradley. He’s a guy with immense talents who has to deal with two fatal flaws (fragility and anger) that have cost him probably tens of millions of dollars and an All Star career, which probably just leads to more frustration and anger.
I’ve gone back and forth over whether I want to see Bradley in a Padres uniform next year. Right now I feel like I trust KT and Sandy Alderson and Pepe Negro to sit down with Bradley and figure out where his head is at. I trust them to make the right decision.
September 25, 2007 at 2:48 pm
Say we go down to the last game tied, or 1 game up, do we use Peavy or save him for a possible playoff/tie-breaker?
September 25, 2007 at 3:16 pm
44 … let’s hope that becomes the $64,000 question … if Padres are game up going into Sunday, no way do we go to Peavy … I think he’ll be on 3-days rest … the real dilemma is if we’re tied … I’m inclined today to vote for NOT going to Peavy in that situation also … I do not think he’d be better than an alternative …
September 25, 2007 at 3:20 pm
y44 and 45 : ya gotta go with your best pitcher to get you to the playoffs. There is no tomorrow. There is no tomorrow.
September 25, 2007 at 3:21 pm
45: I might still go to Peavy there. I didn’t like throwing him on short rest before, but that was because there was a month of baseball left. One make or break game….hope to get four great innings out of him? Try to scratch out a split in the first two playoff games, and pray for rain everyday?
Heard “Hells Bells” on the way home from work on a totally non-Padre related channel. That’s got to be a good omen, right?
September 25, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Important question that I can’t find the answer to anywhere:
Say, the D-Backs, Mets, and Cubs win the division races. Then, Rox, Pads, and Phils all end up tied for WC? What determines who wins the WC? Where would those games be? Anyone know?
September 25, 2007 at 3:35 pm
re 48: That’s too complicated…just try not to think about it, at least that is MLB’s plan: From ESPN
The coin flips did not address the following two scenarios: three-way ties or ties involving two teams from the same division that have secured a postseason berth.
For the record if the Padres/Phillies tie the game is in San Diego. If it is the Rockies/Padres then the game is in Denver.
Let’s go Dodgers and Braves because the Padres are going to need a LOT of help as I think most of us would be content with a 3-3 finish
September 25, 2007 at 3:40 pm
That is crazy they have not thought about it — It is a very real possibility.
I don’t know about you all but I would not be ‘content’ at all with a 3-3 finish. I put a lot of time and energy into this team and I want to see us get it done. Sack up Padres! 5-1 would carry us to the promised land. GOTTA GET IT DONE TONIGHT! No excuses, just straight up refuse to lose. No stupids walks. No grooved 0-2 fastballs. No use of Sledge or Barrett unless we are up big.
September 25, 2007 at 3:45 pm
50: Totally with you. 3-3 is unacceptable. Let’s charge to October.
Better get the running shoes on boys. There’s no slowing down now.
September 25, 2007 at 4:35 pm
I’d love 5-1 too, and 3-3 might be unacceptable to many, but with the team in its currently addled state, it might be an optimistic projection.
Teams in the Padres’ overall economic and farm team situation really can’t afford a string of injuries like they have recently endured, but they avoided clustering those for most of the season. The lack of depth really hurts now.
September 25, 2007 at 4:38 pm
#39 Just voted for Ducksnorts as my favorite blog. Why ? Because it is simply the classiest and most cerebral sports related blog that one could ever take part in and it all starts at the top
September 25, 2007 at 4:41 pm
#52 Well put. I’ll take 3-3 as well. It’s a long season and we wouldn’t be in a position to possibly make the dance if we didn’t earn the right.Unfortunately though I think it will take a 4-2 record in to get in.
September 25, 2007 at 4:42 pm
I feel strangely optimistic today — I’m not sure why. We have a bunch of stuff stacked against us here.
I think the move to get Lane was a good one — at least it shows management is doing something to push for the playoffs. Even if he is only a six day fix.
September 25, 2007 at 4:47 pm
It’s early, but Philly, NY Mets and Dbacks all currently losing.
Question - What if we tie for Division Title but we finish out of the Wild Card race, does Arizona automatically win the title because of their better head to head against us ? In other words, we are left out based on tiebreaker ?
September 25, 2007 at 4:51 pm
56: In that case we play a tie-breaker, in AZ I believe.
September 25, 2007 at 5:03 pm
56: Isnt that what happened with us and the Dogs last year. no playoff we get the WC
September 25, 2007 at 5:04 pm
Thanks Zagz. BTW, Glavine getting rocked tonight at Shea, while Philly down 4-1 in top of the 4th. Philadelphia has to face Hudson and Smoltz in the next two. BTW, Atlanta, though a longshot, is still in this thing !!
September 25, 2007 at 5:07 pm
#58 But a playoff berth was not in the offing, just the title of being Western Champs.
This is why I could care less how we get in, whether as Division Champs or WC –WC has as good a chance as any to win a championship
September 25, 2007 at 5:08 pm
58: Sorry mis-read you there, if we dont get the WC but tie for the division its a playoff
September 25, 2007 at 5:28 pm
59 … Philly with 3 in bottom of 4th … now 4-4 …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270925122
September 25, 2007 at 5:38 pm
GY … that look at the ‘73 Draft is fun … thanks! My favorite view is this …
“Peak season” for signed players: 1979, when 37 players accounted for 412 win shares
… so the peak season for a draft is 6 years later … not as much as I’d thought … I’d be interested to see if this is pretty constant for all drafts … I gotta think so … wonder if there’s been minor trends …
Also interesting to see that while Jack Clark was drafted as a pitcher (and came up as a 3B-man), Matt Keogh was drafted as a hitter! That tells me both those guys were amazing athletes!
September 25, 2007 at 5:49 pm
Padres’ lineup for tonight seems as good as can be mustered …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270925126
… Hairston #2, KK #3 …
September 25, 2007 at 5:49 pm
In the bad omen department, Philly just took the lead against Atlanta, with Jimmy Rollins scoring after he reached base on a strikeout.
September 25, 2007 at 5:54 pm
64: It’s depressing that that is now the best that can be mustered. On the bright side, the Giants’ lineup is still worse than ours! On the dark side, they’re also pitching Matt Cain, and we’ve got Brett Tomko.
September 25, 2007 at 6:05 pm
Booyah! Bravos up 8-5….
September 25, 2007 at 6:05 pm
8-5 Braves now.
September 25, 2007 at 6:09 pm
66 … check out what Cain and Tomko have “done lately” …
Tomko … 12 IP, 9 H, 0 BB, 11 Ks
Cain … 12 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 10 Ks
… well, uh … actually Cain’s done better than I thought … but you get my point … right?
September 25, 2007 at 6:21 pm
69: Blind squirrels and nuts, broken clocks and the correct time? Let’s hope for Tomko finds the nut twice more this season.
September 25, 2007 at 6:50 pm
Dbacks tie it up vs Bucs … still batting in top of 8th …
September 25, 2007 at 6:52 pm
Phils down 8-6 and are down to 3 outs remaining … and they are at the 7/8/9 spot in the order for bottom of 9th …
September 25, 2007 at 7:00 pm
Larry Jones adds a 2-spot on the Phils