The Ortega Highway stretches roughly 30 miles from the coastal town of San Juan Capistrano, over the Santa Ana mountains, and into Lake Elsinore. Opened in 1933, it features some of the most beautiful scenery in Southern California.
The road twists and turns at many points along the way — sometimes you wonder if you are even headed in the right direction. It can get congested with other motorists and will try your patience, especially if you are in a hurry to reach your destination. You may find yourself wondering why there isn’t a more direct route. Of course, if you do that, you will miss all the parts of the journey that make it worth your while despite the occasional frustration.
You will miss the trees. Heck, you’ll miss the forest. And most importantly, you’ll miss the descent into Elsinore. As you wind your way down the mountains, the entire Temecula Valley comes into view — farms, subdivisions creeping ever closer to the mountains, and the lake (yes, there is a lake in Lake Elsinore).
You may have been to the town dozens of times, but seeing it from above in its larger context, as part of an entire valley connected by networks of roads and people, you appreciate it that much more. You always enjoy visiting, even though usually you just whip up I-15, in a more direct route that gets you there faster but with less awareness of the larger picture.
Who wants to deal with all the twists and turns of a mountain road that was built more than 70 years ago? Who wants to take the extra time to reach their destination regardless of how beautiful the scenery might be (and especially with gas prices what they are)?
These are good questions. For all the romance of the highway and a road trip, it can be a royal pain in the rear when you’ve got a goal in mind. But if you choose a shorter, more direct route, you run the risk of missing that payoff and not seeing everything there is to see.
Shifting gears for a moment (you are driving manual, I assume), consider the San Diego Padres. For the vast majority of their existence, they have been the doormats of the National League. (Really, if you can’t be honest with yourself on a road trip, then what’s the point?)
The Padres have been to the playoffs four times in 36 years. They have never had three consecutive winning seasons (although that could change this year). From 1999 to 2003, they won 44% of their games. Expectations by fans, management, and even outsiders who marvel at the idea of a big-league ballclub in “that place south of LA” have been understandably low.
But on moving to Petco Park in 2004, things changed. The club started winning. And winning, as we all know, is addictive. Once you start, you don’t want to stop. Don’t believe me? Ask Braves fans who can’t be bothered to show up for the first round of the playoffs. They have a decidedly different level of expectation.
It makes sense when you think about it. They were in town while all this winning was taking place. From their point of view, nothing much changed. Why would they notice?
Why would any of us notice? It’s only by leaving town that you begin to see things differently.
The longer road may be less convenient, but that’s kind of the point. And, of course, there’s that big payoff of seeing the entire town surrounded by other towns, all connected. This cannot be underestimated. When you finally emerge from above and arrive in town, it’s still the same town. And you’re still the same you. But something has shifted, and it’s difficult to pinpoint. Even though it took longer to get where you were trying to go, you maybe decide that this place was worth the wait.
Before our metaphor becomes a hammer, I’ll leave you to connect the remaining dots. The important thing to know is that when I go to watch the Storm play this Saturday night, I will get to Elsinore via the Ortega Highway.
This is my first time commenting, but I have been lurking for a while. You do an excellent job covering the team, Geoff.
I think the calming tone of this post is really what Padres fans need to hear right now. The team is doing fine, they have a bright long term outlook, they are doing what they need to compete in the NL West, and are doing it with a payroll of $20 million less than the Dodgers.
And to those that think the Padres team is lucky to be here and not all that good: the team is 5th in the NL in EQA, 1st in the NL in defensive efficiency, and in the top 5 in both starter and reliever expected wins added (stats from baseball prospectus; starter and reliever top 5 ranks were on their featured stats in the past week, so they might be slightly different now). I would think that should be good enough for a playoff spot in the NL. For now, let’s just be thankful we’re here instead of in the AL. And, hey, no team in the NL Central has a third order winning % over .500.
The Mets are definitely better than us; time to rebound and go after the Astros now. Go Padres!
GY
Excellent post. I, for one, needed to be reminded of the “long road” — the last three days have been pretty frustrating.
Everything is headed in the right direction — you figure the Pads are going to be strong up the middle for a long time. The pitching is decent and relatively young. The defense has been pretty good.
I just want them to make the playoffs this year, you know?
I appreciate this post, however…
Yes, expectations have been raised…they were raised on that December day that I learned we traded for Cammy and Finley…They were raised that day I was driving down Zion and almost ran off the road when it was reported that we got Kevin Brown.
They were raised when we took out the Big Unit/Astros and the Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine Trio in Atl during the 1998 playoffs.
They were raised when we passed Prop C…They were raised when we sat there during that chilly April day when Petco opened.
There is nothing wrong with that…we are not a “sleeply little navy town” any longer. We are not the doormats of the NL, wearing poop brown uni’s and being better known for our silly mascot.
I am not okay with mediocrity any longer…we have been told that we are in the top 1/2 in revenue, we have a publically financed stadium, and we have one of the easiest places to play in the league. There is no room for excuses. There is no more waiting.
Why can’t we expect that the pads continue to carry a $75-90mm payroll? Why can’t we expect them to draft guys like Drew, Verlander, or Weaver instead of “value picks” like Bush? Heck, the Giants paid for their own stadium and they still are willing to do what it takes.
This is not Lake Elsinor…this is not El Cajon…This is San Diego…are you saying that we can’t compete with Phoenix or Miami or Houston or ???…Aren’t you tired of hearing about how great the future is for the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers?
The Pads have gotten everything they asked for…we gave them the stadium deal…we pack it out regularly…we buy the merchandise…we watch Channel 4…we listen to that crappy 1090…we read that sweet Ducksnorts site…we are passionate.
Now, go get me a *&^%$#@ Major League 3 Bagger and win this division…No more excuses. I expect winning…Last year’s “win” is not enough…we have raised the bar. Time to start Jumping Higher.
Ok, Dr. Geoff, can I get off the couch now an rant? Send me a bill for the session, BTW. I feel great.
Speaking of shrinks, the Pads clearly need one because have un-met expectation syndrome (UES), which is dragging them down. They expected something from the tading deadline and got zip, or worse, Todd Walker, and from there its been down hill ( I won’t bore you with stats). Christ people, we are close to playing 500 again.
Meanwhile the #@#!$%!s, got thier cake and are eating it too, jumping into first place and riding the Mo of three good moves at the trading deadline. Not to mention, the pub the @#^%^%$ are getting on CNN/SI-ESPN for taking over the NL West lead. They only mention the padres when we get swept by the mets or when Met fan cries for Mike.
And please stop telling this team is playing for 2007. As a SD sports fan all my life, I don’t want to hear that (and you natives know exactly what I mean). The time is now, and the NLW is again ripe for the taking. If we are playing for 2007, why did I drop $45 a seat to watch a team of millionaires mailing it in. Answer me that riddle, Sandyman?
Ok, done now.
CM: Thanks for the thoughtful post. To clarify, I’m not saying we should settle for mediocrity, rather that the current 2 1/2 year run is better than mediocre when viewed in a larger context. It’s not great but this is about as good a run as this franchise has had. It’s a step in the right direction. We aren’t doormats, and that’s the point.
As for expecting the Pads to carry a particular payroll, that’s way beyond my call. That would be nice, but given that it’s probably not going to happen, maybe a better approach would be to find ways to spend whatever is allocated to payroll in a way that maximizes our potential (you know, the real theme of Moneyball) — see the A’s, Indians, or Twins, for example.
Bush was a mistake. We all know that. I think (and hope) that with Grady Fuson in the fold, those days are behind us.
No, this is not Elsinore or El Cajon. I don’t know about Phoenix, Miami, or Houston, but I’m pretty sure we can hang with Oakland, Cleveland, and Minny/St. Paul. For a long time, though, this club hasn’t had the resources to do so — and I’m not talking about money, I’m talking about a front office with a plan. With Alderson et al. running the show, I really like our chances. To continue the road analogy, they’ve driven it before and know what it takes to reach the destination. I trust their leadership, and that’s not something I’ve always been able to say about Padres management (I came onboard as a fan just before the Warner fire sale happened).
Absolutely the bar has been raised, and that’s great. We fans should expect more. We deserve more. But the point is, we’re getting there. We already have more than we had 5 years ago. That doesn’t mean we’re satisifed. That means we recognize where we’ve been and where we’re going.
It’s a long road. We’re headed in the right direction, but as the Mets showed us this week, we’re not there yet.
Very frustrating series, especially given the Dodgers “hotness”. Bad series happen. Dave Roberts, a very solid, smart player who does not need any talking to about hustle or approach to the game, was 1-12 with a single and walk, an OBP of .153, and his sole hit was for naught as he was thrown out trying to stretch it. DR has probably been playing better than he is for a little bit, so some slow down is expected. I guess my point is bad series happen, and teams can collectively hit poorly. This happened on the road (rather than Petco, where I believe the Park really does hurt us), so I am guessing it was a fluke.
If numbers help, look at BP’s adjusted standings and playoff report. In the adjusted standings, our derived, third order (after adjusting for both the relationship of our hitting and pitching lines to actual outcomes and strength of schedule) wins are 58.4 and we have 58. So almost dead on. Not lucky, not very unlucky. That 58.4 puts us as a bit behind the Dodgers (60.8) and Mets (64.2), but ahead of all other teams in the NL, even STL. So, we are solid team, deserving of a position in the playoff hunt.
Also, they have a playoff odds report, showing us at 42% (30% to win the West, 12% to be the wildcard). That seems about right, almost 50/50 to make it in. Given the strength of last year’s team (not too strong), losing Hernandez, one of our better players, to see this team right back in the thick of it is encouraging. The Betemit non-deal is my only gripe, and I am now officially letting that go. I am sure KT and Sandy and Paul could do my job better than I could do theirs.
So, let’s hope for a good series in Houston. Too bad we cannot somehow get Klesko into the line up. I think his career numbers in Houston are sickeningly good.
Go Pads!
Expecting the Padres to carry a 75-90 million dollar payroll is what is completely unrealistic, Coronado Mike, when you consider everything that has gone on since 1998. They’ve been in the 65-70 million range at Petco and that is where you can expect them to stay plus or minus a million or two unless attendance plummets (or they sell out every game) or new revenue sources come into being.
While they have moved into the top half in revenue, they are at or near the top in terms of stadium debt, which is a natural restraint on spending. You also have to know that Moores won’t dip into his own coffers now that Petco exists.
Once you accept these tough to swallow facts
, you can reorder your expectations accordingly, and how that the Padres can “out-efficient” the big market teams like the Dodgers and Giants and stay competitive in the NL West.
And Endy F-ing Chavez was 6-10 with a walk and SF in this series. I cannot remember seeing him hit much very sharply, if at all, no extra base hits. Infield hits that found their way through and soft liners just deep enough to get out of the infield and too soft to be caught by the OF. He has a career 677 OPS. My point? Luck. Bad luck for us, good for them. Wright and Beltran played as they always do, very well, but a bunch of the other hits were a bit of good fortune. I now have a personal grudge against Endy and hope his inflated numbers get him more PT and he regresses back to normal bringing a few L’s to NY.
Hurrumph!!! I ain’t buying. Sandy and Grady don’t play. For the guys that do, get out of your funk and start earning those millions you make playing playing better between the lines. I’m especially talking to Giles. Stopping the tanning, and the padre hugs, put some clothes on and start hitting again.
And Island Mike (CM), that was the rant of a beleagued SD sports fan. Nice work.
PM, before you go off on another one of your ill-considered rants, please read this from Rob Neyer:
“What if Brian Giles were hitting the ball with some authority? Last year Giles ranked 27th in the National League with a .483 slugging percentage (and was third in on-base percentage, at .423). This year, Giles’ .382 slugging percentage ranks 79th in the league. The difference is due partly to a lower batting average, but mostly to a puzzling lack of power that has Giles on pace for fewer doubles, fewer triples and fewer home runs than he’s ever hit as an everyday player. That makes me wonder if he’s nursing an injury that’s not enough to keep him out of the lineup but is enough to keep him from driving the ball like he usually does.”
Occam’s Razor, bud, not the tanning bed.
Ehh… I have been a Padre fan since the second I was born but this is awful. I don’t care if we are not the “doormats” of baseball anymore. At least when we stunk and knew we were going to finish last we knew what we were getting. For the last 3 years all I’ve got from this team has been teases. Which is worse?
I’m so tired of seeing inconsistant play from these guys and I really think this all falls back on Bochy!
KRS1: Finishing last every year is worse. Much worse.
I agree — being last is terrible. The worst thing in baseball is having no hope at all.
The reason I kind of buy into the whole 2007 thing is that some of the core guys here (Greene, Peavy, Young, Gonzalez, Barfield, etc) are young. This is not a team of 35 year olds that is going nowhere. Maybe all of them are not elite-level talent, but you can build a solid foundation around them.
BTW, did everyone see that Greene is going to see a hand specialist in Houston today.
Uh-oh. Sounds like we may see Manny Alexander soon. Yuck
WARNING: This is a very long post that does include whining, bitching and yes even a little bit of crying, this is the venting of a 24 year jaded Padre fan who has started to loose hope for the season, but hey lets face it I will still support the team as long as they wear brown and gold, brown and mustard, blue and orange and there ever so famous sand and blue. Read at your own risk
Geoff
First off I would like to say nice post, I love your optimism and I can see your point.
But we have been on this windy road a very long time and I’m really starting to get car sick. While I do think pads are going in the right direction by hiring Alderson and Fuson there is still a few large dead trees in the middle of the road that will keep us from our destination (Bochy, Towers and the largest of all Moores). I really try not to knock KT or Boch but sometime I just can’t resist but I really think it is time to clear the road of all obstacles.
While Alderson and Fuson are nice additions the padres once had the best CEO in baseball and little did we know at the time one of the best GM’s, but they both have a ring with the red sox logo and just faded memories of an owner who’s favorite slogans are “fire sale†and “I want a new ball park.†To be honest if Lucchino could not win a championship here with a pay roll (that Moores still whines about paying) in 98 then why do we think Alderson can with a lower payroll.
I know that the Twins, Indians, and A’s have had success with low payrolls but how many rings or even world series appearances have they had since the free agent era (I know the Indians went in 95 and 97 but they did not have a mid level payroll that year.
Bochy has done a serviceable job with the talent he has had over the past 13 years, I really do think that he is an ok major league manager and the lack of Padres success should not fall fully on his shoulders, but if the organization ever wants to move forward they really need a new face in the dugout steering the ship. Bochy has been there to long and has had so many loosing season I think he may have stared to get comfortable with it and it reflects sometimes in the player. I also do not think that Bochy is the right manager for the new system that Alderson is trying to implement.
KT had some great trades this year, or did he? We all know that the Ranger deal was Fuson, and if Eaton played all season and had double digit wins and klesko was at 1B and was Agon in AAA this year the deal would not look as one sided. I don’t need to get into the Mirabellie/Lorretta trade which KT lucked out on when Bard could not catch Wakefield and Boston got desperate, and I think KT was just as surprised as we all were at how well Bard and Meredeth have played this year. I’m also not going to talk much about the trade deadline debacle. You cant be disappointed in Walker because he has done well with the stick but come on you cant stick Khalil behind the plate and wonder why his defense has gone down. I will how ever give credit where credit is due, KT has done a good job with the bull pen and the Piazza signing was huge.
John “F’ing†Moores, as an SDSU Alumni I love him, as a life long San Diegan I love him as a Padre fan he is up there with Barry Bonds, the New York Yankees, and all other things that are evil. Mr. Moores has donated millions of dollars throughout the community to make San Diego a better place and I really respect and appreciate that, but if you are not willing to spend millions on your baseball team then please don’t be an owner.
When Moores sells the Padres he will probably make more money off of them then any other investment he has ever made. John Moores bought the San Diego Padres in 1995 for $94 million and now has an estimated value of $329 million, and I’m not even going to get into how much he has made from the developments that he is doing around the ball park (look up JMI which is his development company), and yet he has the audacity to complain about how he has lost money on this team and he is still trying to pay off debts from the 98 season.
If money is what big john cares about then he of all people should know that you have to spend money to make money. San Diego is the 8th largest city in the country we are not a small market, and with Mexico to the south there is a barley tapped market of people, but no one cares if you don’t win, we don’t like to spend money to go see a movie that we know is a flop or go to a play that we know is bad so why would fans want to spend money on a team that we know is not going to compete.
Use the Angels as an example, what was their fan base before they won the World Series in 2001 and what is their fan base now? The Angels won over the Temecula, Murrieta OC, Camp Pendleton ect… pretty much all of the fans who were not Dodger fans ( fans for who they competed with the Padres for) because they win and beyond that they give their fans hope.
Wow that was long, if you read that long bitter mess then you deserve a cookie, please take all of this with a grain of salt and please don’t look at me as a old crust bitter fan, I’m really not, I’m really optimistic most of the time but sometimes I just need to vent my frustrations with the organization I was raised to love. Regardless of record or ownership I will still support the Padres for the rest of my life (as long as they stay in SD).
The Mets series was a huge deal in NYC, a possible playoff opponent, the Piazza homecoming. There was a lot of excitement over this series in NY, on TV it sure seemed like a playoff atmosphere. And we got swept. I think that’s why a lot of us are frustrated. We could have won game 1, I was prepared to write off game 2 against Pedro but we came within a couple of feet of taking the lead on a 3rd Piazza homerun. Game 3 was our hope to salvage the series but it didn’t happen.
I still think we have a great chance to win the division, assuming Khalil is ok, but this series doesn’t inspire confidence for the playoffs. I do think we have a great foundation with the infield and Young and Peavey and the new focus on developiong talent.
Slightly off topic: what’s going to happen with Klesko? Will he even make it to the ML roster? I don’t see that there’s any room for him unless someone goes on the DL or Bellhorn is released. How likely is it that someone will trade for him without any major league at bats?
Things that would help the Padres win, now, and in the future:
1. Keep Ben Johnson on the bench. Bring up Termel Sledge instead.
2. Hit the ball when Woody’s on the mound.
3. Hit the ball when Peavy’s on the mound.
4. Lock up Gonzalez for a long time.
5. Do the same with Barfield.
6. Spend some money at third base.
7. Go out and get the type of legitimate bat that we haven’t had since Greg Vaughn left. Don’t even pretend like they thought that’s what they were doing with Giles’ re-signing last season.
8. Keep Klekso as far away from the lineup as possible. The guy is awful. I can’t stand even thinking about him being on the field.
9. Use Rob Bowen’s roster spot for someone more versatile.
10. Don’t ever talk for weeks about getting a guy at third and then pull Todd Walker BS stunt at the trade deadline again. Ever. So embarrassing.
And please, win a couple playoff games this time around.
Re 14:
Steve (and anyone else who cares to try): Name me all of the major league baseball owners that spend their own money on their baseball teams on a regular basis.
Hint1: George Steinbrenner is not a correct answer.
Hint2: John Moores from 1995-2003 is a correct answer.
Stinebrinner puts out a winning team every year and gives fans hope and they reward him by selling out every game and supporting a TV network in which he makes a ton of money off of.
If the padres had half the winning season the Yankees did then they would make money.
Moores has still made more money off the padres than he has spend.
I guess finishing .500 isn’t as bad as finishing last but honestly what’s the difference? You still have no chance to win a championship and the off-season is just as long. I just don’t seem much of a difference. Not winning is not winning and I don’t look at this team and see any hope coming in the future (outside of Gonzalez, Barfield and maybe CY). I love baseball and I love the Padres but I think mediocrity is just as boring and hopeless as mailing it in early and the last 3 years have been as MEDIOCRE as it gets. The funny thing is I actually went to way more games in the last few years at the Q to watch bad teams then I do at PETCO to watch this and I live like 10 blocks from the park.
“ill considered rants…” thanks for the compliment. TF.
Ok, if not the tanning bed, maybe Giles injured himself giving to many Padre Hugs to Bill Murruy.
Re 18: Steve, nice job not answering the question.
Let’s try this again. Why do the Yankees spend so much more money than other teams? Because they have so much more money than other teams. When they spend it poorly, they lose, but they still bring in more money than other teams. When they spend it wisely, the usually win a WS, and they bring in even more money then before. When they spend it in a mediocre fashion, they still win although not as much and usually not a WS, and they bring in even more money than ever before.
The Yankees winning has nothing to do with your claim that an owner spend money on his team.
I doubt very strongly that Moores has made any money on the Padres. He is probably still operating in the red over his whole ownership tenure in terms of actual outlay versus actual inflow to him. He would make a lot of money if he sold the team, but he is not going to do that anytime soon.
Moores is probably going to make out on JMI’s development of various properties, but a lot of owners make out on their separate businesses. The key point is that you don’t see any of them propping up their teams on a regular basis with such money.
Again, answer my question.
Moores bought the Padres for $94 mil they are worth an estimated $329 mil now, by my calculation that’s a net of $235 mil I would say that’s a damn fine investment over the past 10 years, he may have not made money from the turn styles but her has from the overall organization.
When Donald Trump buys a building he may have to spend his own money to improve it but where he makes the money is when he sells it.
What owners make a profit off of their baseball teams? Steinbrenner, Hennery, Maybe Turner? When Steinbrenner bought the Yankees they were terrible and not making any money but throughout the 80’s Steinbrenner spent his own money to rebuild the team and bring it back to dominance in the 90’s from that he got huge retunes from the Yes network and sold out stadiums every night, but he had to spend money to make money.
Obviously expectations have been raised. I’m frustrated by their play recently and who wouldn’t be. But I realistic enough to know that we don’t have much to bargain with at the moment for new player acquisition without really throwing the future away. I realize the team needs to develop a solid base to build upon. That being said, the Padres committed a monumental PR blunder in the handling of the 3B situation. While I would not have hesitated to use the one strength of our team, the bullpen, to improve the team’s offense, KT felt that we would be better off by holding on to Liney. Time will tell if he’s correct. But for a team that struggles to score runs, it seems like a head scratcher to me. I know my feelings are only exacerbated by the fact that the Dogs have realed off wins in 12 of 13 since since getting Betemit and Maddux, two players we all hoped might have been in Padre uniforms. Management there is looking very good at the moment, but remember the media in LA was about to bury them two weeks ago. The next two weeks will determine the season imo. Let’s see if the team has a pulse in Houston.
You guys need to chill out. These next few series are what’s going to decide the season not just the one series with the Mets.
Whinning about not spending money (not yours) to not get players is way past its useful date.
Anybody who thinks the last 3 years have been mediocre (compare to the history of the team) is out of your mind. You didn’t go through the losing years? How quickly we forget those bad years.
Let’s see:
had the Padres traded for ARod, the chance of the team winning the division is probably only improved by an additional 1 win at most. The team is going through a hard time and some bad luck and bad plays. Yes, the last series against the Mets was frustrating but had the Padres got a better bat (one better bat, gentlemen) there is no guarantee that this past series would have turned out differently.
Stop with the whinings and cryings. The team is talented enough to win the Division and make the playoff. An additional talent is not going to change that into a guaranteed spot (remember Joe Randa who was supposedly better than Sean Burroughs?).
You want to see a terrible organization, see Kansas City. Got some money to spend in the off season and didn’t spend it wisely. The Padres has to, as somebody pointed it out here, ‘out-efficient’ their rivals in the division. The rest is up to the players. That means not spending just for the sake of spending money.
End rant.
Why should we be happy with a .500 season? because we are used to sub .500 seasons? Come on that’s not a good reason, if we are ok with .500 seasons then that’s all they will give us!
Didi
The money that is being spent is ours, we pay for tickets, caps jerseys ect… it is our money that is not being spent.
Ok I’m done for the day I’m getting in to bad of a mood, I guess I’m just bitter because getting swept by the Mets felt like getting swept by the cardinals last year. I shall return tomorrow with more optimism.
Actually I think our money is being spent. The money that’s not being spent is the money that would be generated by those empty seats and the extra TV money that would go with higher ratings. The fact is that even though San Diego is a large market population-wise, it is a small market when it comes to fan interest. It’s not realistic to expect any owner to dump tens of millions of his own money into a team. NY is a special case; even Boston operates on a budget, they were constrained at the deadline by the luxury tax.
“Our” money is being spent on Klesko and Nevin/Park. If those guys were performing near the level they were when they signed those contracts who knows where we might be. This is a transition year between the old methods and the new, the fact that we’ve been competitive is a bonus. I still think more could/should have been done at the deadline because winning the division two years in a row would go a long way towards building fan support and lead to higher revenues.
Sorry to interupt the fevered debate here briefly, but anyone heard what’s up with Khalil Greene?
re 22: Steve, a building to a real estate mogul in the business of buying and selling buildings is not analogous to a baseball franchise to a team owner. Moores does not make any money on the sale until he sells it. Otherwise, it means nothing to day to day operations unless you borrow on perceived growth in equity. The Padres already have a lot of debt so you won’t see Moores doing that, making the increased perceived value of the franchise functionally irrelevant.
I have no doubt that Steinbrenner did pump money into the Yankees franchise in the 70s, but that is no different than Moores pumping money into the Padres franchise when he first bought the team and for about 9 years thereafter. Steinbrenner also had the obvious benefit of owning the most storied franchise, in the biggest media market, with the best television contracts, with the biggest population base, and the best brand recognition/advertising/marketing appeal.
I have seen no books or articles that assert that Steinbrenner put any of his own money into the franchise in the 1980s or 1990s or so far this decade, so I would appreciate any proof you have there. I’ll stand by my assertion that he did not do so, and that the Yankees have pretty much always been a self-sustaining financial juggernaut.
Steve, read this:
http://www.businessweek.com/1998/39/b3597106.htm
and let me know whether you still buy the line that Steinbrenner spends his own money on the team.
from said article
However, if the past is any guide, precious little of this bounty will fall to the bottom line. Steinbrenner is a talkative man, except when it comes to the finances of his tightly held club. However, BUSINESS WEEK was able to obtain Yankee profit-and-loss figures for the years 1978 though 1990. During most of this period, the Yankees were little better than a breakeven enterprise. Even the $40 million-a-year revenue cushion added by the MSG deal in 1988 wasn’t sufficient to assure an annual profit. That year, the Yankees made $27.8 million in ordinary income and posted a $50 million gain in 1989, only to plunge $31 million into the red in 1990.
Didi,
If the past 3 years have not been mediocre then what have they been?
It’s not that I’ve forgotten the bad years it’s just that this doesn’t feel much different. At least then we could blame it all on Bruce Henderson and hold out for Petco. At least then we had Sean Burroughs, Xavier Nady, Oliver Perez, Jake Peavy, and Jason Bay to look forward to as the guys who were going to be our future.
I’m not complaining about the money because San Diego is a small Media Market (26 or 28 in the country if I remember correctly). I just want to see strides of getting better. This team takes a step forward and then it takes two steps back. Getting into the playoffs should not be the goal. Winnings championships should be. You’re right 1 better bat wouldn’t guarantee things would be different but neither does holding on to Linebrink. There are no guarantee’s in anything. I do know that the Dodgeres rolled the dice on the 26 year old third baseman we were looking at and since they got him (and others) they have lost 1 game and he has been playing great.
Oh and I’m not sure if you noticed but last year Joe Randa as better then Burroughs. But that really isn’t saying much I guess.
Boy, I like your metaphor, Geoff, and the whole thread today. Lotsa big picture stuff.
So yesterday I was hopeful in the vain of “Hey, let’s get some perspective, we’re still in the thick of this race.” Today, while still hopeful, I gotta say…
Coronado Mike is right about Padres’ management – in ’98 they said, “If you build it, we will be able to raise our game.” And that was after just concluding a World Series. So they knowingly raised the level of expectations in this city sky high and ought to be held accountable for it. (Unless of course they wish to apologize and say, “Hey, that was just a lie; we were trying to win an election.” I expect to hear that from Moores about 5 minutes after I hear it from W.)
But what I’ve really been chewing on in the last 24 hours is… the non-Linebrink/Betemit deal. Unlike Jay, I can’t quite let this one go yet. Look…
2004 – 84 IP – 32.6 ARP (adjusted runs prevented)
2005 – 74 IP – 22.3 ARP
2006 – 75 IP – 11.9 ARP
Of course, this is Linebrink, with 2006 based on this year’s numbers but projected to end of the season.
If that doesn’t tell KT, “Pull the trigger! Get Betemit! Your #2 guy in the pen ain’t what he once was…” Well, then, I’m not sure KT gets it.
Look, KT said he was concerned about the pen. It’s been a fine one this year, no doubt – currently 3rd by ARP in the NL. But lose every last bit of contribution (over replacement level) that Linebrink has been making this year, and you can expect to cough up 4-5 more runs over the remainder of the season. That’s over replacement level, but the guys who will pick up most of the slack, guys having really quite good years like Meredith, Adkins, and Embree, aren’t likely to all collapse. It’s entirely possible you barely notice a difference.
Compare that to the giant sucking hole at 3B and what an upgrade to Betemit means. I’ll stop here, noting that this is only looking at the remainder of this year; going forward the gap in value between Betemit and Linebrink only figures to widen.
And regarding money, Moores claims of losses (and those of Selig and most other owners) should always be taken with a grain of salt that would choke a moose:
“Anyone who quotes profits of a baseball club is missing the point. Under generally accepted accounting principles, I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss and I could get every national accounting firm to agree with me.”
— Paul Beeston, former MLB chief operating officer
Oh, yeah, lastly, Steve, LOL… “car sick”.
Like I siad in post 27 im done for the day.
passing on Betemit bothers me, too, but it’s only fair to note that 3b is not a sucking hole anymore…for 2 months, Betemit is not likely to hit much better than Walker, though its hard to quantify the effect of defense (can’t be THAT much).
But yeah, Betemit has much value going forward.
Sorry dprat, you misinterpreted what the Padres said in the run up to 1998. They said that the team would remain in San Diego and they said the team would be more competitive, and by that they clearly meant that they would be more financially competitive without Moores continually bailing out the team, which is what he did that year and years previous. They did not promise repeated playoff or WS appearances. Well, actually, Theo Epstein kind of did a year or two after Prop C was passed, when he had no real basis to do so, and he got the ax.
Amusing little anecdote from Beeston but it doesn’t follow that it applies to the Padres. They haven’t been claiming $2 million losses or anything remotely of the sort and there is nothing in their revenue and expenditure approximations provided by Forbes that would indicate they have fudged the books like the Yankees have done.
Great stuff, folks! I think we may have some material for a follow-up post, but for now I’ll just say that I love the fact that we’re fired up because our team is barely above .500. This alone tells me we’re headed in the right direction. Nobody’s satisified with where we are right now. That’s awesome!
I like the nucleus of this team, I like that we’ll get rid of some big contracts after the season, and I like that we’ve got guys with a demonstrable track record in the front office. Our failure to land a legit third baseman and recent sweep by the Mets notwithstanding (and both sting quite a bit), we’re still in a lot better position than we were, say, 4 years ago. Our irritation with the current situation only proves the point. Seriously, would we have even cared about this stuff in August 2002, when we were 24 1/2 games out of first?
Hang tight, everybody. And get ready for more car sickness — it’s a long ride!
Re 32: Thanks Steve, the portion you quoted actually supports my point. The rest of the article proves it – the Yankees averaged a few million dollars profit annually in the 1980s and 1990s. So they didn’t have Steinbrenner dipping into his own pockets to make payroll. If they had a big gain one year, they could roll that over into another year to cover any big loss.
TF,
In the run up to the ’98 election there was quite specific talk from management and its media shills about new ballpark revenue allowing the team to, for example, upgrade the team when needed at the trade deadline. Also, I don’t remember talk of being “more competitive financially” but of being just plain “competitive financially.” I’m not sure that being outspent by $30M (40-45% above our payroll) by our main rivals really counts as being competitive financially.
My point is NOT that we were ever going to match the Dodgers spending, but that the pro-Prop C crowd successfully convinced voters of just that. So, again, nothing wrong with holding them accountable.
(The post-election spinning of this reminds me of denials that anyone suggested we would be greeted with flowers in Baghdad, oil revenues would pay for the war, we would bring stability to a troubled region, etc. But I digress…)
Does fathers work in the padres front office or something? He defends moores like it was his last name.
Yes, there was talk that the new ballpark would allow the team to do things like upgrade at the trade deadline. If they allocated their increased revenues better and had a better farm system, they could do precisely that. Blame post-Prop C operational decisions for the failure to follow through with that claim.
They continuously used the terms “more competitive” and they specifically stated that they would not be equal to the Dodgers and Giants, just that they would be able to close the gap without having to dip into their owners’ pockets. The pre-Petco Padres minus buffering by Moores were far behind the Dodgers and Giants revenue wise. They have closed that gap somewhat, but Petco was never claimed to be a panacea that would close it entirely. No rational fan who understands the difference between the San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco markets could ever believe that. If a person voting on Prop C erroneously came away with that impression, basking in the Padres WS appearance in 1998, then that is that person’s own fault, not the Padres.
Then you also have to place pre-Prop C in the context of the intent to open Petco in 2002, not 2004. That certainly set back the Padres at least two years, if not more. FWIW, the Padres were $60 million behind the Diamondbacks, $53 million behind the Dodgers, $37 million behind the Giants, and $15 million behind the Rockies in payroll in 2002. Now, they are $30 million behind the Dodgers, $20 million behind the Giants, and ahead of both the Diamondbacks and Rockies. That equals “more competitive” by any normal definition.
Re 41: Steve, I wish you were done for the day for that inane comment.
Since we are not talking in this thread about the decision to draft Matt Bush, or the rift between Moores and Lucchino, or Moores’ failure to aggressively fight the frivolous ballpark delaying lawsuits, or the decision to hire Bob Vizas and Dick Freeman to oversee team finances, or the failure to devote sufficient resources to building the farm system and international player acquisition, or giving the go ahead to authorizing contract extensions to players of Phil Nevin’s and Ryan Klesko’s skill sets, then it might look to you like I am defending Moores like he was a relative. My opinion of Moores is much more mixed than that.
Fathers you just made my point about moores not spending money, I dont care if its on free agents or the farm system its the fact that he refuses to invest any money into the team to make it better. You cant run a multi million dollar ball club on a shoe string budget and expect good results.
Steve, my answer to that is: So what? No owner regularly invests in their teams to make it better, with one limited recognized exception – some owners do invest yearly in their teams at the BEGINNING of their ownership, to build up the team’s brand, or get a new stadium, or get a better cable deal. That is what Moores actually did. That is what Steinbrenner did. That is what Arte Moreno is currently doing. That is the point that I have been trying to get through to you.
The Padres have a shoestring budget no more than any other team that operates within its revenues, as pretty much every team does.
Did the Dodgers ask Frank McCourt to put in more money into the team to get Wilson Betemit, Elmer Dessens, Greg Maddux and Julio Lugo? No, they already had it in reserve. Did the Giants ask Peter McGowan to put in more money into the team to get Shea Hillenbrand? No, they already had it in reserve. Did the Diamondbakcs ask Ken Kendrick or any of his partners for more money so they could get Livan Hernandez? No, they already had it in reserve. That is how it works these days. Teams simply no longer go out of pocket to their owners to cover midseason acquisitions. They budget for it at the beginning of the year, like all businesses budget for possible contingencies.
It is possible that the Padres did not budget enough to cover such contingencies this year, particularly since attendance has taken a downturn and they might not have had as much revenue as expected. More likely, they did not have sufficient quality of extra prospects or extra major league talent to make the deals that they would have liked to have made.
so by your account moores should not spend another dime to improve the padres, this mediocre state is where they will sit until he sells the team?
Okay, let’s assume (for a moment only, because this ignores the tendency of a media sucking on the Padres financial teat while in the guise of independent fellow citizens to drop the “more” qualifier) that every voter in 1998 SHOULD have understood that the Padres were NOT going to be competitive, but only to be “more competitive.” (And f@#! them and let them eat that $400M for not being “rational” baseball fans who understand markets, but only citizens who listen to the radio and read the paper.)
Still, the baseline for their expectations of being “more competitive” would be at the time of the election:
1998 payrolls:
LAD 48M
COL 47M
SDP 45M
SFG 40M
ARI 29M
2006 payrolls:
LAD 98M
SFG 90M
SDP 70M
ARI 60M
COL 41M
I’m just sayin’…
Okay, I’ll stop living in 1998 now.
You’ve fallen into a common problem of payroll comparison when it comes to pre- and post-Petco analysis. The 1998 Padres payroll was subsidized directly by Moores to the tune of $10-15 million – no account disputes that. The team was heavily subsidized between 1995-1998 because Moores wanted to build up the team brand after the firesale/strike and more importantly to get a new stadium; Moores’ subsidies declined relative to that time period from 1999-2003. Take away the subsidy and you operate within the team’s actual resources, which would be a $30-35 million dollar payroll. They would have been right beside Arizona without Moores putting his money into the coffers.
Moores repeatedly said that he would not subsidize the team forever, and would stop at Petco. He also realized that without his subsidies (or a new revenue source) the team could not remain even remotely competitive on a consistent basis with the Giants or the Dodgers. Guess what? Moores’ subsidies did stop with Petco, and the Padres have been on their own ever since.
An apples to apples comparison would compare pre-Petco payroll minus Moores’ subsidies to post-Petco payroll (which has no such subsidies). 2002 and 2003 are much more realistic salary comparisons because Moores’ subsidies had declined to a trickle if not nothing by that point.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/33/Revenues_1.html
the yankees, red sox, mets, angels and marlins all lost money last year
“Note to self… Never get in a argument with The Fathers because he will DESTROY me!”
-KRS1