Back before the season started, when we were waiting to see whether Josh Barfield would win the second base job, we looked at Barfield’s MLEs and settled on Arizona’s Orlando Hudson as a comparable player (start at this comment and work your way down for a more in-depth discussion). Now that we’ve got 4 1/2 months of data to work with, I thought we might revisit that comp and see if it’s holding water.
To the numbers:
| Player | Year | Age | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | XBH/H | AB/HR | BB/PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barfield | 2005 | 23 | 407 | .283 | .321 | .420 | .137 | .304 | 45.2 | .053 |
| Hudson | 2003 | 25 | 474 | .268 | .328 | .395 | .127 | .283 | 52.7 | .075 |
| Stats are through games of August 14, 2006, and are courtesy of ESPN. | ||||||||||
Not bad. Barfield is hitting for a little better batting average and a shade more power, but not drawing as many walks as Hudson did. Defensively, Hudson is on another planet (his range factor that season was 5.84; Barfield’s this year is 4.77, which is in the lower half among big-league second basemen), but on the offensive side, there’s not a lot separating these two.
Actually, there is one thing: age. We may have underestimated Barfield’s upside. The season he’s having right now is the one I was expecting in 2007 or 2008.
Okay, how about age 23 comps? An extremely unscientific process reveals the following names (note that these are unadjusted numbers, so it’s possible that some aren’t really all that comparable):
- Roberto Alomar, 1991: .295/.354/.436
- Craig Biggio, 1989: .257/.336/.402
- Royce Clayton, 1993: .282/.331/.372
- Wil Cordero, 1995: .286/.341/.420
- Travis Fryman, 1992: .266/.316/.416
- Barry Larkin, 1987: .244/.306/.371
- Edgar Renteria, 1999: .275/.334/.400
- Jimmy Rollins, 2003: .245/.306/.380
- Ryne Sandberg, 1983: .261/.316/.351
- Garry Templeton, 1979: .314/.331/.458
- Robin Yount, 1979: .267/.308/.371
This is a nice list (hello, Mr. Clayton; what are you doing here?), but one thing I’ve learned when doing stuff like this in the past is that you end up finding a lot of guys who experienced what I call “freakish development.” In other words, we don’t want to get carried away just because Alomar, Biggio, Larkin, Sandberg, and Yount show up on this list. Most players don’t follow their path — if they did, the Hall of Fame would be a lot more crowded or have different standards.
Back to Barfield, I’m not sure how comfortable I am with any of the above names. Renteria and Rollins (never mind the batting average) are probably the closest, if you’re okay with the fact that they play shortstop. They’re not ideal comps, but at this point they seem more reasonable to me than Hudson.
I’m surprised you didn’t have a post about last night’s game….I guess it was too awful to write about. I’m not too concerned about Walker’s errors as he’ll easily make up offensively for the errors he makes over the 3rd base options, but I am concerned about last night’s lackluster performance. The Padres offense was just atrocious the last three innings. Greene taking a pitch right down the middle by Mike Stanton (not to be confused with Randy Johnson, even his crappy old version of now) was terrible but the bunt by Cameron was just mind boggling. Whose idea was it to bunt? Was it Cameron’s or Bochy’s? Either way it was just a terrible play. You let a new reliever come in a throw only one pitch? The same reliever who threw two pitches and gave up the game winning home run the night before? To maybe your hottest hitter? With nobody out? And runners on first and second?
It’s games like last night that makes me think that maybe the Padres need a new manager, one that better understands how to manage during the game — not one that just knows how to handle a bullpen.
Here’s a pretty ugly, yet realistic, look at the Padres’ farm … http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5426 … by BP’s Kevin Goldstein … ug.
I agree with all your comments, except for the one about Walker. I’m not sure he can provide us enough offense to make up for his atrocious defense. He’s turning into Steve Sax and Chuck Knoblauch over there. I never thought I’d say it..but I’d rather have Sean Burroughs back at 3rd…at least he could hit the first baseman with the throw.
The rest of it though…is right on in my opinion….
Tom, Walker’s bat is okay but I think I disagree that his bat will make up for errors.
He does deserve more time to make a final judgement but at this point of the season in the middle of a division race should we have a guy trying to learn his position? Wasn’t that why Bochy wouldn’t play X at 3rd last season? Bochy is a complete idiot and that bunt last night shows it. Cameron killed the ball in Houston and Bochy has him throw down a bunt with no outs. What the hell. I am officially jumping on the bring up Justin Leone bandwagon. Hell bring up anyone of our minor leaguers that plays 3rd base or has for more then 3 or 4 weeks now. Bowen is basically a useless spot on the roster. I am over the 3 headed catcher and 3 headed 2nd basemen playing 3rd situations. Blum or Bellhorn need to go and so does Bowen. Bring up Leone and PMac or maybe Cust. We have way too many roster spots that give us zero return. At least bringing up some young guys would get them some experience and maybe show us what they have, it’s not like we have anything to loose at this point IMO.
I’m extremely frustrated with the third base situation, but there’s only so much I can say. Don’t even get me started on the Cameron bunt. Anyway, I thought it would be nice to focus on something positive in the midst of a disaster. After all, the band kept playing even as the Titanic was sinking.
Any thoughts on a Barfield comp? Or do people need to vent about last night? That’s cool, too.
GY I’ve been impressed by Barfield all year long. I honestly thought we were going to miss Loretta a lot more then we have so far. But sorry for being so negative but 2nd is just not what’s on my mind right now. This is some of the crappiest baseball to watch and yet I sit here and do pretty much everyday hoping it will turn around and well we constantly make average (at best) pitchers look like #1 aces and it makes me want to puke all over my TV. To make things even worse… Matt V. is on vacation and I have to listen the Steve Quiss (not sure on the spelling) act like he’s a baseball guy (instead of a douche bag) and that alone makes me want to srangle the life out of everyone at channel 4 that had anything to do with employing him!
It’s hard to do comps because you need to adjust for era an ballpark. Hudson’s a defensive wiz; I think Barfield will hit better.
Orlando had a .253 Eqa in 2005. (He’s settled in at the .260-.270 range).
Josh has a .264 Eqa, two years younger. He’s already significantly outperforming Hudson, and with much more potential to improve.
Renteria didn’t have a .264 Eqa until Age 26, when he exploded.
Alomar is an awful comp — .278 Eqa at Age 20. That’s when you know you’ve got a potential HOF.
Ray Durham was similarly effective as Barfield, but I’m not sure Build is working in Josh’s favor. His batting eye picked up quickly in Year 2.
Luis Castillo has a completely different skill set.
I dunno about a comp. I’d love it to be Durham.
GY – Great job pulling the stats on Barfield im glad the Padres had the guts to make the Loretta move and pull him up. Barfield may be the answer to the padres leadoff Q if Roberts does not return.
I agree KRS1 on 2 points.
#4 – at this point bring up Leone, Walker has been ok with the bat but he should not have to learn how to play 3rd in the middle of a pennant race, Leone may not be great defensively but at least he is used to making the 3rd to 1st throw.
#6 – man I really cant handle listening to Quiss for 9 innings I’m switching to 1090 for the audio and putting the TV on Mute until Matty V is back. I really couldn’t take him asking mud if he could rub his schelaley (not sure how to spell).
I think the writing is on the wall for both KT and Boch. Alderson is suppose to open a new chapter of Padres baseball and I don’t see how he can ever do that with KT and Boch there, Its sort of like when the chargers traded Seau and let Harrison walk, Marty could never take full control of the team with their influences in the locker room, (I say sort of because both Seau and Harrison were great assets to the team, I’m not sure if you can say that about KT and Boch)
I like his eyebrows….in a manly way or course.
PM – Joshes?
Yes, josh’s. Kidding of course, because if I think about last night’s game or Padre baseball after the ASB, my BP would raise and I’d grind me teeth. Three errors is a killer. i dunno, they are not playing well, maybe they will come out of it, maybe not.
There is no way this is disaster yet. If this level of play continues through the homestand, at that point it is a disaster. I’m with Tom; the big story to last night’s loss was the offense not being able to score, not Walker making those errors. Walker continues to be our best option at 3B, but I would be in favor of bringing up Leone and having him replace Bellhorn or Blum. Walker is the only player at this point that gives you more than a replacement level bat; we should give him more time to work on his defense.
I also disagree about releasing Bowen, since he is one of the bats on our bench that is hitting above replacement level. The three headed catcher situation has put up (I think) the best numbers in the NL from the catcher spot, and it provides the bench with two bats that have actually hit this year.
I am sick and tired of Bellhorn and Blum getting at bats. They have put up VORPs of -7.5 and -4.9, respectively.
Hey, at least the pitching staff has settled down!
I agree with you ben about Blum and Belhorn not getting at bats, The padres dont need two utility infielders who can’t hit, I dont belive either will be on the team next year so bring up Leone and drop one of them.
If the Padres bring up Pmac or Cust it would serve the same purpose as Bowen, both Cust and Pmac can only play 1B at the Major Leauge level and I dont see them getting much time with Agon. So in a since they would only be brought up for pinch hitting apperances.
I think Bowen would do better if he gave up on switch hitting and just stuck to the left side of the plate where he has had alot more success.
Walker did not loose the game last night, the way the padres were leaving men on base they would have never scored and the bullpen would eventualy give up a run.
If the pads can’t score 2 runs off a rookie pitcher then all the defince in the world cant help them.
I agree with KRS1, it’s really geting old watching this team make mediocre pitchers look like aces. Even a guy like Pettitte, who everyone has been saying is done, dominated the Padres. They seem to have the most trouble with guys that throw slop, like Trachsel and El Duque.
I feel bad about dumping on Quis because he sees like a decent guy but someone needs to tell him he doesn’t have to comment on every single shot and every single thing that happens. We’re watching TV, we can see it for ourselves. It’s ok to shut up sometimes.
I can’t blame Walker, he’s doing the best he can after being stuck into a position he hasn’t played in years. Every time he makes an error the blame lies with Towers for not bringing in a real third baseman.
One of the best stories of the year is Barfield’s emergence. He “plays the game the right way” as they say, has solid fundamentals, runs the bases aggressively but under control, has been working on his defense and seems to be able to make adjustments. I think he’ll ultimately be better than Hudson with the bat, if not with the glove. I’d b e very comfortable with him as the leadoff hitter next year if they don’t re-sign Roberts.
I agree that it’s time for Bochy and Towers to go. They’re both good at their jobs but they’ve been here too long and I think they carry a lot of baggage from all those losing seasons. It’s time for a change, Sandy should bring in some people that can implement his plans.
Broadcasting is like MLB most have to go through the minors to make it in the bigs. Matty V spent years broadcasting in the Minors working on his talent and finding what works. Quiss never did that.
Anthony…did you really say that Barfield may be better with the glove than Hudson?
Barfield is average defensive 2 bagger at best…the numbers suggest even below average. Hudson may be the best with the glove at 2b in the game right now. I am a huge Barfield fan (what team has a better Eyebrow right side than the Pads Barfield/AGon), but Hudson is a vaccum over there…
KRS1…thanks for the laugh…thought the Douche Bag comment was very funny…passed it to a couple of friends.
My hope is not restored after sleeping last night, but maybe we can hang this week and then take the Dodgers head on Monday – Wednesday next week.
In the paper today “Bruce Bochy refused to call this ‘a make or break’ homestand.”…what a joke…if we play like we did last night for the next 9 games, we will be out of the 2006 race and will be playing for next year…yet again.
Anthony: Totally agree that we can’t blame Walker. He’s as much a victim in this as the rest of us. He’s been set up to fail, and that’s exactly what he’s doing. As for Barfield, great point about his fundamental soundness. The guy is athletic, yes, but he’s also got a lot of baseball intelligence (and I won’t even qualify that by adding “for a rookie”). I love watching him, Roberts, and Cameron run the bases.
I think the baseball prospectus article LM linked at 2 is the biggest reason for removing Towers. That the Padres farm system can best be described as depressing while the Dodgers and D-backs have two of the best systems in baseball and the Rockies have several top flight prospects is unacceptable. I can accept John Moores not opening his checkbook to overpay for free agents, because that’s not a viable long term strategy. I appreciate Towers getting good returns on cheap investments. It’s a great way to build a bullpen. But with the way the payscale is structured with the team controlling young players cheaply for 6 years, the Padres absolutely need to produce starting quality, occasionally star quality major leaguers from their farm system if they hope to compete. It doesn’t appear that Towers has set up the farm system to be able to do that over the next two or three years.
Somewhat getting back to the topic at hand, Barfield is a nice development, but Greene and Barfield cannot be hitting in the 3 and 4 spots for this team for the next 5 years. Yeah, ok, that wasn’t really related to the topic at hand. Go Josh!
The farm system report is sobering. It looks like there are very few prospects at the advanced levels of the system. I think Towers deserves a fair share of blame for that, but so does Moores. He wouldn’t authorize sufficient money to sign a top level draft pick in 2004; now it comes out in the paper today that the former international scouting director couldn’t squeeze more money (out of Moores I presume) to sign Francisco Liriano out of the Dominican back in 2001. He only had a $1 million budget. What type of nonsense is that.
Perhaps it is a chicken and egg argument. Towers is given a certain amount of money to pay for major league and minor league operations. Perhaps if he had allocated more of the money to minor league and international player development, and less to signing scrubs and mid-level free agents to fill out a series of 5th place (and one 4th place) major league teams from 1999-2003, the Padres farm system could be in much better shape.
On 3B, I agree with the paper’s comment that Walker may not be ideally suited to starting with Hensley on the mound. I would go with a 5/2/5 plan for a 6 game week. Walker gets 4 games at 3B, one at 2B; Bellhorn gets Hensley’s game and one other; Barfield gets 5 games at 2b and Walker spells him for the other, but not on Hensley’s turn.
Ben re#12 “I think” the 2 headed catcher situation with Piazza and Bard have also put up the best numbers in the catcher situation. I like Bowen a lot and think that he could be good but he is obviously 3rd best on this team and I feel like he isn’t getting the playing time he needs to actually get better. Yeah he’s a switch hitter off the bench but I think he still only has 1 hit from the right side while batting for the Padres which pretty much makes him a decent pinch hitter if there is a righty on the mound and an out if it’s a lefty. I would like to keep him around if we had a legit guy at 3rd but we don’t.
We all knew the farm system sucked so thats not a shocker, we all know that the padres put no effort into international scouting (which goes back to me bitching about moores not spending money but im not going there again), and all we can do is hope that fuson can work the same magic here as he did in Tx with more luck finding good pitching.
All,
I created a FFBL through NFL.com (I like there set up a little more than Yahoo) it’s completley free anyone is welcome to join.
http://www.nfl.com/fantasy and click on the “NFL Fantasy 2006″ link
Leauge Name = Ducksnort Nerds
Password = Padres
I have the Draft set up for, August 23, 2006, 3:15 PM PST but that can be changed easily.
If you have any problems please email me at Stephen_cook11@hotmail.com
San Diego Padres minor-league catcher Matthew Lauderdale was suspended for 50 games Tuesday after testing positive for a drug of abuse.
Lauderdale started this season with the Lake Elsinore Storm of the Class A California League, playing four games there. He has spent the rest of the 2006 season with the Double-A Mobile BayBears of the Southern League, batting .233 in 44 games.
Details Here…http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2550486
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2550486
On the topic at hand…I agree that Barfield has been a pleasant surprise. I figured that he would be a very good player, but I didn’t expect him to play this well this year. Rick Sutcliffe picked him last night as his NL Rookie of the Year. I’m not sure if he has been that good..but he does deserve some consideration..
Re 22: Steve: I think we can find some common ground. From 1999-2003, Moores was still propping up the team with at least some of his own money – at least that is what all sources have stated. Couldn’t we agree that he should have directed that money to the farm system/international player scouting and development instead of the major league roster?
In other words, did a team expected to be bad until Petco opened really need to spend money on guys like Chris Gomez, Wally Joyner, Reggie Sanders (yes, he had a great season), Carlos Hernandez, Al Martin, Kevin Jarvis, Sterling Hitchcock (should have sold high after 1998), Bobby Jones, Brett Tomko, Bubba Trammell (should have sold high after miracle season), and Rondell White? Why give productive but non-difference making, one dimensional soon-to-be-past prime players like Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin lucrative contract extensions? Why not dump that money into player development?
For a Josh Barfield comparable, look at Fernando Tatis.
.276/.329/.415 to Josh’s .285/.324/.424. And a .325 wOBA to a .322 wOBA (excluding ROE).
MO: This post actually started as a look at the NL ROY chase but when I did the research, I discovered that it’s an unusually strong crop and there isn’t much chance of Barfield winning it. Aside from half of Florida’s roster, Prince Fielder and Ryan Zimmerman are putting up some serious numbers. Right now I’d have to go with Zimmerman or possibly Josh Johnson.
Richard: Good call on the Tatis comp. I never would have thought of him but that’s pretty solid. I wouldn’t mind seeing a similar jump at age 24 for Barfield (as long as it’s not accompanied by what followed for Tatis).
TF: I agree with your larger point, but I have to cut a little slack for the Rondell White acquisition; the only reason he was brought on board was to get rid of the Trammell contract. White was sort of the Chan Ho Park of his day, in a weird way.
Fernando Tatis sounds like an insult to Barfield, but then I looked at his stats on baseball reference. At age 24, he hit .298/.404/.553 with 82 BBs, 128 Ks, and 34 homers. Wow. Then he had another good half year, and then he fell off the map completely.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/tatisfe01.shtml
One thing I find annoying about the Padres and us (the fans) is that the Padres have a tendency (or at least it seems they do) of losing the first game of a series then we the fans go ape about the sky falling…
Last night the Padres:
1. Committed 3 errors
2. Had at least another play or two that were misplays but not recorded as errors
3. Asked a power-hitting, streaky, hot hitter to sac-bunt when he hasn’t all year
…And we still only lost by one. If the team doesn’t hang it’s head and can realize how good it is/they are (mostly because of the pitching) and get a few runs each night, a three-game winning streak against the Giants is perfectly reasonable.
***
Lynch (and others) I know Kevin. He HATES how old some of the guys are we drafted this year, but keep in mind he never mentioned a BUNCH of guys who are having VERY GOOD years:
David Freese
Nic Crosta
Craig Cooper
Orlando Lara
Rayner Contreras
Michael Epping
Kyle Blanks
Aaron Breit
I won’t pretend to tell you we have a GOOD farm system, but I’ll take ours over the Giants’
Keep in mind, our top is light andonly has a few gems (Kottaras & Carrillo) we have quite a bit of talent in our lower levels.
Oh… & by the way…
Orlando Lara
Rayner Contreras
Kyle Blanks
Aaron Breit
Those guys are all pretty young (or at least not old)…
Mike: Sorry if I wasn’t clear, I meant that Barfield will be better than Hudson with the bat but NOT with the glove. As long as Barfield can be an average 2B I think we’ll all be happy. I’d like to see Khalil and Barfield stay together for several years so we can have a Trammel-Whittaker type of middle infield. Two solid guys that work well together are a good foundation for any team.
Projecting performance is always tough but I think Barfield will be a good one. Like Gonzalez he hasn’t just been on a hot streak, he’s had ups and downs and show that when pitchers get his number he can adjust.
Did any see that little note in today’s UT about how the Padres former head scout (forgot his name) had a chance to sign a 16 year old Francisco Liriano for $400,000 but he couldn’t get the approval to spend the money? Kid was throwing 96 mph with a good idea of what he was doing at 16 but they couldn’t fit it into the $1 million budget.
After last night’s game the Padres have hit a new low–and that is really low. The whole team should be flogged and put into “timeout†for awhile.
The lowly Giants with their pathetic closer-Benitez- beat the Padres 1-0.
Why do the Padres have trouble winning at home?
They are too comfortable–the clubhouse is too nice-the fans come and talk on their cell phones and eat all this overpriced food and drink the $7.00 beers and do not get into the flow of the game–they are there for entertainment–and that is what the Padres give them-entertainment. They sure do not give them quality baseball. The Padres are more worried about fans walking in the aisles during the game and all this other crap.
We need ballplayers–not sushi- not upscale buffets for the $200 seats. Spend money on players and player development–not perfecting the Weinershnitzel hot dog.
Padre executives need to focus on baseball.
Rogs
Anthony…I would love to see Barfield stick around for a while…still not sold on Greene…
David…I am pretty sure the $$$ spent to bring in Sushi and Buffets have nothing to do with the Big League/Minor League player budget. Food service is usually an above the line expense.
Father’s…Sounds like you are a big fan of how the Marlins have done it…if you can’t compete every year, then don’t even try. Every 5 years win the WS. The other 4 years, rebuild and get stud pitchers to develop…then, when you have 6-10 very good players, go spend some cash, get the talent to push you over the edge and win the whole dang thing…celebrate, have a tickertape parade, break up the team and repeat.
I def. see some merit there.
FLA 2 World Series Trophies
SAN Zero
Sutcliffe might have been drunk again, or at least in the bag for the Padres, when he picked Barfield last night. Josh Johnson and Zimmerman are the best rookies.
But he did point out that Barfield has always been a middle of the order guy with some power. I have no idea what his minor league stats are, but it looks like he may end up with Durham- or Tatis-type power.
Actually Mike, I would have been in favor of a Marlins/Indians/Twins strategy only in the intermim between 1998 and 2004. Once Petco Park opened, they had substantially increased financial resources to stock a major league roster with at least one or two big free agents and a few mid-level ones. They also could have pulled from their farm system to go for some trade upgrades. They also would have had a better foundation for replenishing.
Once Petco came, they could have been in a much better position to fill and trade without having to do complete bloodbaths, more like an Oakland A’s strategy with more money.
Of course, this is all with a huge helping of hindsight and learning about the ins and outs of the game as a business over the last ten year.
What is the most frustrating thing for me is that it seems every year this team is trying to put a band aide on a stab wound; this year it is 3B, last year it was a 5th starter, the year before, pick an OF position, the year before that SS.
How is it that when this team has a weakness on its roster it is accomodated by an absolute void behind it in the minors?
“How is it that when this team has a weakness on its roster it is accomodated by an absolute void behind it in the minors?”
B/C the team has drafted poorly and scrimped… Until now… The last 2 drafts have been pretty darn good.
I agree that Barfield won’t win and even being a homer for the padres, I don’t think he should win it. But I do think he deserves some consideration and should get some votes for it. I was surprised to see Sutcliffe pick him as the rookie of the year in the NL last night. Karros picked Uggla from Florida and the other announcer picked Zimmerman.
Would you do this deal?
Kevin Youkilis and Matt Clement and cash (4-6mil)
for
Khalil Greene and Clay Hensley
I’ve heard things from people.
Intriguing but then who plays short? I actually wouldn’t mind moving Khalil to thrid and signing/trading for a super glove type like Izturis. Our infield defense would be ridiculous and maybe the reduced demands of third could help Khalil.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Greene is traded in the off season, I think the Padres may be losing patience with him and other teams still see him as a valuable commodity.
Depending on Clement’s health and the amount of money coming to San Diego, that might be a good deal.
I would do that Boston deal in an instant, but only in the offseason. I don’t want to see Manny Alexander ever again. I think we could find a decent SS easier than 3B. Then again Stephen Drew would look nice in a Padres uni about now, but hey we have been down that road too many times already, or have we?
I think Todd Walker should play shortstop.
BTW, has anybody checked Tony Graffanino’s numbers lately?
Man, I was wrong in not wanting this guy to play for the Padres.
SouthieSully #41 there is no way the red sox make that deal, Youkilis is a fan favorite and its play better than greene this year, and if Clement is healthy I would take him over Hensley.
The padres cant make that deal or the discusion we are having about 3B this year we will be having about SS next year.
I guess my opinion on Moores would really change this off season if they keep a 60 to 70 mil pay roll. That would mean they would have to sign a big name guy.
But if they come in with a $50 mil pay roll and no new impact players then we know where he stands.
If Clement is healthy?–check Wood and Prior. I would never do that deal even if all that money came to San Diego. Khalil will figure it out one day–that hole in his swing will get smaller.
Todd Walker at short–cute!!