For the second straight month, the Padres found themselves treading water. The Friars followed a 14-12 June with a 13-13 July. Not great, but when you consider that this club was 18-35 over those two months in 2005, it’s hard to complain.
Hit Me with Your Best Shot
A closer look at July 2006 versus July 2005 reveals exactly where the improvements were made. In a word: hitting.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | SEC | AB/HR | RC/27 | R/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | .290 | .356 | .482 | .192 | .314 | 27.0 | 6.06 | 5.31 |
| 2005 | .239 | .317 | .355 | .116 | .236 | 57.1 | 3.77 | 3.38 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. | ||||||||
The Padres scored nearly two runs more per game this July than last. They obliterated last year’s totals in every category.
The Pads hit 35 homers this month. If that doesn’t impress you, it should — it’s easily their high-water mark in a month since moving to Petco Park in 2004.
And if that still doesn’t impress you, maybe this will: Mike Cameron, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jake Peavy combined to hit more home runs in July 2006 than the entire team did in July 2005. Plus, you’ve got to like these trends, which we first looked at last month:
We’ve already noted the success of Gonzalez, Josh Barfield, and Khalil Greene since Merv Rettenmund returned as hitting coach. July also saw standout performances from Cameron, Josh Bard, and Mike Piazza. In fact, aside from Brian Giles (give him a mulligan since he’s the only guy who did anything last July) and the Hot Corner of Doom™ (which managed to lower its season OPS despite entering the month at a pitiful 607), just about everyone contributed on offense.
Make It a Double
Chicks may dig the long ball, but doubles can be plenty effective as well. The Padres outdoubled their opponents in July, 63-50, marking the third consecutive month in which they’d done so. For the season, the Pads have outdoubled their opponents, 199-178.
Big deal, right? As longtime reader Bill Robens notes:
Last year, about this time, the Padres were getting mauled by our opponents in doubles. So mauled, I wrote you about it. On July 1, 2005, we’d been outdoubled at home by 30 — or 3 doubles every 4 games. A HUGE disparity. And it seemed to confirm all of our worst fears: that our poor outfield defense was killing the team.
Poor outfield defense was a big problem in 2005. The Padres still are getting outdoubled at home, but this season it’s at a rate of one per every five games, which is much more reasonable.
But defense doesn’t tell the whole story. The other half of the equation is that hitting for power was a problem in 2005. This year? The Padres already have a guy with 19 homers, which they couldn’t say last season. And before too long, it’s likely that three others will pass that mark.
Enough about the homers; we’re looking at doubles now:
| 2006 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|
| Padres | 1.90 | 1.66 |
| Opponents | 1.70 | 1.96 |
If you’re keeping score at home, that’s a +0.20 differential this year versus a -0.30 differential last year. This effectively means that every other game, you can add a double for the Padres or take one away from the opposition compared to last year. Over the course of the season, that’s going to make a difference.
Okay, so we get that the Padres hit well in July. Therefore the reason for their .500 record during the month must lie elsewhere. [Cue sound of Wile E. Coyote falling off a cliff.]
Pitching, Anyone?
It’s a rhetorical question, but I’ll answer it anyway: No. Only relievers Jon Adkins (1.32 ERA in 13.2 IP) and Cla Meredith (1.88 ERA in 14.1 IP) had an ERA below 4.00 in July. Among starters, only Woody Williams (4.30 ERA in 29.1 IP) and Mike Thompson (4.42 ERA in 18.1 IP) had an ERA below 5.00. Everyone else was pretty much a disaster.
Many of the names have changed, but the pitching this July was basically a carbon copy of last July, when it was dismal:
| Year | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 5.17 | 1.47 | 10.19 | 1.33 | 3.08 | 6.16 | ||
| 2005 | 5.19 | 1.50 | 10.06 | 1.34 | 3.42 | 6.72 | ||
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. | ||||||||
So, the big difference was in the fact that the hitters bailed out the pitchers this year. I guess we can thank Rettenmund for that. Or Bard, Barfield, Cameron, Gonzalez, and Greene. Would you believe, all of the above?
Not the pitchers, anyway. Except for Peavy, who hit two home runs during the month. Did you know that he had 6 RBI in July? Fellow moundsmen Woody Williams, Chan Ho Park, and Chris Young each drove in a run during the month, giving Padres pitchers a total of 9 RBI.
Punch line: That’s one more RBI than Padres third basemen accounted for in 2 1/2 times as many at-bats. Not that anyone is desparate, but I think I’d settle for Ed Sprague at this point. Or even Peter Sprague.
What Next?
Last month we identified keeping Dave Roberts and Woody Williams healthy as priorities. Both stayed healthy and made solid contributions. Unfortunately they weren’t enough to overcome a lot of bad pitching.
The club obviously could use help at third base (in the sense that I could use help getting to the moon), but with most of the available options being snatched up already, it’s difficult to maintain optimism on that front. Anything is possible, of course, and teams aren’t as wary of making waiver deals as they once were, but I’m not holding my breath.
Even though something really stinks.
The good news is that, thanks to an increasingly indifferent NL West, the Padres didn’t lose any ground in July. Once again, this isn’t going to be a pretty stretch run by anyone’s standards.
But as much as I appreciate aesthetics, I appreciate winning even more. As we said last season, someone’s got to win the division and it might as well be the Padres.
I’ve been checking the various spots, but can’t find any confirmation. Interestingly, after the Walker deal, it was almost immediately up on the Padre site. Nothing shows on a Linebrink deal, though.
I like the deal because the pads did not give up anything for walker and he is a solid player but at this point i think i might be more prone to starting belhorn over walker, atleast we know he can throw from 1st to 3rd.
I really hope they did not trade for oli didn’t we go through this before?
The reason EY is still a Padres. He’s mentoring Josh Barfield. I can’t find fault in that reasoning.
http://tinyurl.com/g85e2
Bochy, please use EY wisely. So far so good in July.
Guess Linebrink is still a Padres. No fault with that. At all.
“it’s tough to watch everyone else improve their clubs while we do the penny ante trades”
Perfect description.
Why release Vinny if you don’t have any plan in place (whatsoever) to replace him?
Am I the only one that wants the Linebrink deal to go through? I think a lefty would be great for the rotation and I would rather get something for Linebrink now then wait till he becomes untradeable. Perez is obviously not the ideal lefty but it would give the Padres another youngster in the rotation and I doubt Linebrinks value will ever be this high again.
The trade was reported on Sportsline initially as a done deal, but I can’t find anything on the web about it now…
Has KT been on the radio yet. I’d like to get his perspective about what didn’t get done today…
linebrink will be fine and I think they will be able to move him to the white sox in the off season for joe crede.
I’d rather see the Linebrink trade go through as well. The more that I see about Bell, the more I like him and think that he might be the next Linebrink
You release Vinny because he was a terrible player, one of the worst 10 players in baseball, even giving him more than deserved credit for his glove.
I dont know I go by the old saying a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush.
alot of players are projected to be the next (insesert great player here) and they never pan out.
Look at all of the hype around Oli in 2003 and look at him now.
I think it was Buzy Bavasi that said “Trade them a year too early rather than a year too late” and that pretty much sums up my feelings on Linebrink.
There’s a good chance Trevor retires if he gets the save record this year. I’d rather have Linebrink as the closer next year than Heath Bell and a (likely) washed up Perez. Despite his recent struggles Linebrink is still a pretty good pitcher. I wonder if his recent unexplained personal issues affected him the way Woody was affected last year?
Todd Walker is no Morgan Ensberg or Aramis Ramirez but he is an upgrade over Vinny. Any word on the roster? Is Young going to be released now? The clubhouse won’t like that, another character guy sent packing.
Trevor won’t retier unless he gets to 500, which wont be this year.
I think sledge will get sent down, I would not be supriesed if the pads move blum/belhorn on waivers for a low level prospect to make room for johnsn when he comes off the DL.
Trevor Retire… No way! Why, when he can pitch maybe 50 innings and collect retarded amounts of cash while pushing 85 mph fastballs over the plate and racking up a cheap stat.
SportsCenter just kicked off – no mention of Linebrink. They said Perez would be headed to the minors for the Mets. Maybe the Linebrink deal didn’t happen, or isn’t official yet.
Olney just said on ESPN that the Pads backed off the Linebrink trade. Liney’s still a Pad.
Olney just addressed the Linebrink deal; it’s dead. He said the Padres “pulled back”, and didn’t say much more than that.
As a Padre fan here in NY, be grateful. Absent 3 bad outings, Linebrink is just as good as the last two years. Heath Bell is a stiff, his stats are misleadingly positive and he was not able to stick in the Mets bullpen.
On the acquisition of Todd Walker:
It’s a good thing. If he continues to hit righties at the same rate (adjusted for park), he ought to hit about .312/.371/.412 against them for us. That’s a pretty big upgrade from Castilla’s .242/.270/.349, Bellhorn’s .201/.305/.375 and Blum’s .270/.311/.378.
Richard I agree but can walker make the throw from 3B to 1B?
1090 just reported that the Padres called the station to say the rumor was DOA, Linbrink still a Pad.
How can I root for Maddox now? He’s a bloody Dodger! I thought for sure we had a chance to get him. Oh Well.
if it took a gold glove ss to get him I wouldn’t want him
I guess we’ll have to wait and see if he can.
I am so frustrated today…No, Walker won’t help…he is a platoon player who has not played 3rd since Roger Marris was the HR king.
Sad day…I am just amazed that we could not pull something more off…KT has had 3 months to get a 3 bagger…something he KNEW we needed and yet here we are, on July 31, trolling the waiver wire…
If someone wanted Cla Meredith or George Koterras and Linebrink to get a 30hr 3 bagger, then we should have pulled the trigger…
Hard to be a Pads fan today…
It’s Maddux, not Maddox.
CM, don’t worry too much. There is no 30 HR 3 bagger available. Otherwise, Linebrink would be gone for sure.
Yes, the Padres should have gotten somebody by now. I wonder how the Wilson Betemit trade happened. The Padres probably do not have any player that the Braves wanted. Getting Aybar and Baez for Betemit is pretty good haul for the Braves and not bad for the Dodgers.
I suppose the Padres could have matched that offer. But what players?
Right now, the Padres need the starting pitching to get better.
But don’t ask me how the team only managed a meager amount of runs in Coors Field.
I am shocked at you people who wanted that Linebrink trade to go through. Perez and Bell SUCK. Oh my gosh, you guys are crazy.
KT on 1090 at 505pm today…let me guess what he is going to say…”Third base market was soft” “We were not willing to put a hole on one part of the team to plug another”. “We are very excited about getting Walker. He is a professional hitter and a good addition in the clubhouse.”
The guy has 6 HR’s and Geoff Blum will be his defensive replacement for a while…ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? Go get a SS like Lugo and then move Green to 3rd then…be creative…get something done…
Guess it could be worse, we could be Angels fans today…a team that has a legit shot at the WS and they don’t make a move.
Still frustrated…
Mike,
You left out “We didn’t want to mortgage the future”. We’ve been hearing that one forever.
Love that one Brian…
I am a big fan of what KT does…I like the guy…but I am frustrated with the idea that we just traded for Todd Walker…we already have two of him on this team, their names are Jeff Blum and Mark Bellhorn.
I think I would have rather had Aaron Boone…
Here comes KT…
KT says he turned down Linebrink for Betemit straight up.
I hope they ask him about 3B next year and going forward.
It sounds like KT still thinks he may pull the trigger on a 3 bagger…
Todd Walker is going to platoon with Bellhorn and maybe even see some time at second.
KT also said that all he worries about is taking the NL West…the playoffs don’t worry him…if they make it he will worry then.
Wow. Deep Breaths here guys. It’s not like the Dbacks picked up Pujols or anything.
I would have loved to see San Diego pick up a premier third baseman, but like some have said, there wasn’t much out there and those that were had big question marks. Todd Walker’s a pretty decent hitter. At the very least, he gives us some depth.
There’s no need to panic just yet!
Bellhorn and Blum are not Walker.
Walker will hit about .312/.371/.412 against righthanders for us. Bellhorn has hit .201/.305/.375 and Blum has hit .270/.311/.378 against them. That’s a substantial difference.
KT says it would have taken two of our high prospects to get Maddux, who we’d have for two months rental. He didn’t mention the names of the prospects.
No panic here Clyde…just frustration.
This club is no better at the deadline than when we went to bed last night…
On another note…KT says that the only third baseman out there was Bettamit and they decided that he was a good long term answer, but would not help get to the playoffs in 2006…Ensberg was not available today…he said it was not a matter of not wanting to trade prospects, but rather that there were no upgrades at third out there…
Richard…look at the splits for Bellhorn against Lefties…
We pulled in a LH hitter that has 6 bombs in the “Friendly Confines” and he has not played third since the Clinton Administration.
He is the same type of player as Bellhorn and Blum…Platoon bench guy, not an everyday guy that makes a difference on a 1st place club. He was not even playing every day in Chicago. I think the Old Tyme name for him is Journeyman.
Do you not see the value of .060 more points of OBP without losing anything in SLG?
Seriously, there’s no comparison. Walker may be a below average player, but he doesn’t outright suck out loud like Blumhorn. The Padres definitely added marginal benefit by trading for Walker.
I like the Padres’ moves (or lack of). Everyone knew their philosophy going into this season of building a long-term winner. Walker is a solid hitter who will give you quality at-bats. The Padres got him for a low-level prospect (another Padre, like Ollie, Bay and Linebrink that the Padres either paid almost nothing for or stole from another club) and kept the core of their team intact.
Trading Linebrink now could have been a clubhouse disaster. Why mess with a bullpen that works unless you’re getting a huge improvement? The Astros wanted too much for Ensberg, Blalock couldn’t be worked out — if the Pads were even interested — and so the Pads got a solid bat and improved their bench.
The Padres are building for the future, and, realistically, they’re a few players away from having a contender for years to come (and will have some leeway monetarily this offseason). The D’Backs and Dodgers have some good young talent and the Pads are keeping that in mind. It says a lot about their plans and expectations that the Padres were targeting Fields and Marte as their third basemen (neither an immediate fix or help this year at 3B but, most likely, great prospects for years to come).
There is a bright side to Pads not mortgaging the future or making any huge moves today:
The Dodgers, the team the Padres just swept, traded away very good prospects for two rental players. Unless they’re planning on keeping Lugo next year (he wants 5 years, 60 mill., I think) along with their overpaid, mini-bust Furcal, they HAVE TO win the division this year. So, it is going to be very fun to root against them.
The Padres have got a nice balance of defense and offense, the pitching has been better than many thought, Cameron (the guy we got for the new Pirate, Nady) will be re-signed, Towers made great trades for Young and Gonzalez (and trade-bait Sledge has a decent bat), and Bard and Piazza have been a pleasant surprise. Khalil gives us power and RBIs from short (another reason we may not have needed the huge bat at third if the cost was too high), Barfield is having a great rookie year, Adrian has been a stud, and we can expect a little more from Giles the last two months.
The Padres have a new stadium, good young talent, some speed and power, a quality owner and front office, and will have lots of money to spend in the offseason. And they are in first place THIS year! How many times in the past thirty years have we been able to say all that?
Yes, Virginia, the glass is more than half full.
It’s worth noting that Betemit has not hit lefthanders this year (small sample of 48 PA). .222/.271/.378.
Against righthanders, he gives you roughly the same OBP as Walker, but with another .140 or so of SLG. That’s without taking into account park, though, and at the moment I have no desire to determine the park factor for Atlanta.
I dont think any one thinks that the walker move is a bad move, he is a solid player and the pads got him for next to nothing, and if he was coming off the bench this would be a great move.
I think padres fans are just disapointed because he is a 2B and last time i checked blum, belhorn, EY, and barfield have all spent the majority of thier time in the majors a 2B. his bat is a nice one to have in the lineup its his not playing 3B since i was a frosh in highschool.
I think the Walker move is a bad one. If the rate differences between he and Bellhorn (as posted by Richard) continue, it won’t amount to more than 4-5 runs over the remainder of the year, playing full time. He might cost that many runs defensively. I’d have stuck Bellhorn at third out of Spring Traing and left him there. I believe I posted on this topic here or at Friar Faithful at the season’s beginning.
I hate giving up young live arms for proven mediocrities who will not likely add any wins to our season total.
And Richard, check your voicemail on your cellphone.
did the pads trade or release belhorn? If walker does not work out belhorn can still play 3B and walker can come off the bench.
KT didn’t want to talk about the roster move that will need to be made, which leads me to believe someone is going to be cut. If someone is being sent down or going on the DL he probably would have said so.
More fully formed thoughts tomorrow, but here are my initial reactions:
– I think Walker is a nice pickup, especially for the price, although the way the Padres intend to use him may negate much of his value.
–If the Linebrink for Perez and Bell deal had gone through, you’d be reading a pretty epic rant in this space tomorrow.
–I really hope the Ensberg talks aren’t dead yet.
A bunch of us here need a deep breath and a step backward. I say this only because we have been getting all riled up about the possibility of acquiring Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg, Adrian Beltre and others.
Those names at ANY other time of year would make us all yawn and wonder what we would have for lunch. Instead, our 3B play has been so poor that we are going crazy because we didn’t pull the trigger to get a quality #7 hitter for any other team in the league.
You all need perspective…
Down on the Farm … Ben Johnson’s in the Beaver’s lineup tonight … http://tinyurl.com/luduf … yet another rough start for Stauffer