I’m just as disgusted as the rest of you that the Padres didn’t even bother to show up against the Rockies this weekend. I would rant, but you can’t rant about everything, which is what’s wrong with the Friars right now. Plus, we’ve got better things to do with our time.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at Adrian Gonzalez, who will be stationed at first base for the Pads for at least the next two to four months while Ryan Klesko recovers from shoulder surgery. We’re peering into the future here, so the usual disclaimers apply.
I sifted through Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster 2006 in search of players whose projections for this season were similar to those for Gonzalez. Actually, Gonzalez wasn’t given a projection in the book (or in the Bill James Handbook 2006), but Shandler does list his MLEs from last year: .302/.348/.482.
From the 20 or so (depending on whether you count less-established players such as Mike Jacobs and Chris Shelton) guys who came within 10 points of OPS, I looked for hitters who had a similar “shape”; specifically, I identified nine players who were projected to have both OBP and SLG within 10 points of Gonzalez’ MLE. This eliminated some intuitively good comps, including Bill Mueller, Lyle Overbay, and Brad Wilkerson, and left us with the following list:
| Name | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Gonzalez | .302 | .348 | .482 |
| Carlos Beltran | .274 | .351 | .473 |
| Eric Chavez | .273 | .351 | .487 |
| David Dellucci | .257 | .350 | .474 |
| Cliff Floyd | .263 | .343 | .488 |
| Shawn Green | .281 | .354 | .483 |
| Austin Kearns | .269 | .351 | .479 |
| Chad Tracy | .293 | .342 | .481 |
| Randy Winn | .308 | .357 | .478 |
| Ryan Klesko | .269 | .375 | .443 |
I threw Klesko in at the end for grins. There are some interesting names here. Gonzalez relies on batting average more than most of them; Winn is the only other guy with a .300 batting average, and he’s a completely different type of player. That leaves probably Green (decline phase version, not the 35-40 homer guy from back in the day) and Tracy as the best comps for Gonzalez.
Again, we’re looking at MLEs (minor league numbers translated to their major league equivalents) and projections, so take all of this with the appropriate buckets of salt. That said, the Green and Tracy comps make sense to me.
Gees, even Peavy can’t hold the surgin Rocks. Not sure what to say cept the Giants won again and according to the Chron, Barry heard a “pop” in his knee in the second of yesterday’s game. They are pleased up here with the Giant start. Today should be a little better for the the Padres.
Geoff, do Shandler’s comps use a nominally neutral ballpark?
Is it too early to be watching the minors already?
Just as it’s early for the Pads, it’s early for the minors but there were several encouraging starts for some Padres’ minor leaguers. Jared Wells had a fantastic first start for Mobile (8 Ks in 5 IP). Is it too early to give up on Vinny? Justin Leone has carried over his hot Spring to Portland hitting .400/.500/.867 in his first 4 games. And way down in Ft. Wayne, Daryl Jones, Pads draftee in 04(?) also is off to a torrid start, going 7 for 11 with a double and 2 HRs. I think I will be the closest attention to Carillo, Wells, Lake Elsinore and Ft. Wayne. The rest of the upper minors can’t seem to excite me at the moment.
Interesting study of Gonzalez. It’s always fun to look at the young guys and try to figure out how they will project. He’s still young enough it’s possible he could develop both better plate discipline and power (or improve both his OBP and SLG). It’s sure been nice watching him so far as there hasn’t been much else to look at.
Speaking of things which are not nice to watch… Since the Pads like to market catchy nicknames for groups of players (like last year’s Red Alert Squad), may I suggest the Keystone Cops for our current crop of outfielders?
Leone has got a great approach at the plate. I was chatting with a few folks at yesterday’s game about this and he’s my pick as the first Beaver hitter to get promoted this year. He looks outstanding thus far this season. But the whole Beavers offense has been lights out so far.
to bad the beaver pitching hasn’t been lights out, thats what the pads will end up needing this yearl.
From his PECOTA Page:
A-Gon’s Equivalent line from last year: .307/.362/.494.
His (Weighted Mean) projection for this year: .254/.313/.411
His 90th Percentile projection for this year: .284/.346/.485
His most comparable players:
Ed Kranepool (1969), Mo Vaughn (1992), Jim Spencer (1971), Paul Konerko (2000) and Brant Colamarino (2005)
Richard, I’ve never understood the various PECOTA projections. Does the Weighted Mean translate to his most likely projection? What about the 90th Percentile, is that his upper end projection?
Just venting here.
Q: Why is EY still playing LF?
A: Ben Johnson is nursing his sore ankle. NO? Wait, why is he not starting then? What about Termel Sledge? Is he nursing his injury still?
EY has veteran leadership and other qualities that don’t show up in the box score. It’s just too bad that what does show up in the box score is what counts, namely runs for and against.
well thats mostly beccause runs scored for and against determines who wins, a guy who goes 0-4 at the plate with great leadership still doesn’t help you score runs. Don’t get me wrong I love EY and I think he is great for the padres, just as a bench player not a starter.
Anthony .. you know what else doesn’t show up in the box score.. balls that Eric Young can’t field that turn into doubles and that his lack of a throwing arm puts Khalil Greene the cutoff man about 250 feet away from home plate.
I mean he’s been a nice guy while he’s here but I don’t think the Padres should have roster space for EY once Cameron comes back.. that or they’ll make the silly decision to send Ben Johnson down who they have given 0 playing time to.
Straight from the PECOTA glossary:
The Percentile Forecast is a representation of the player’s expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability. For example, if a pitcher’s 75th percentile EqERA forecast is 3.50, this indicates that he has a 75% chance to post an EqERA of 3.50 or higher, and a 25% chance to post an EqERA lower than 3.50. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes.
The Percentile Forecast is calibrated off two key statistics: EqR/27 (essentially the same as EqR) for hitters, and EqERA for pitchers. PECOTA runs a series of regressions within the set of comparable data in order to estimate how changes in peripheral statistics are related to changes in equivalent runs. For example, if it first estimates that Carl Crawford will produce 4.7 EqR/27 next year, it then tries to determine what home run total, walk total, and so on are most likely to be associated with a 4.7 EqR27/season.
PECOTA then iterates this result to ensure that the peripheral statistics ‘add up’ to the right calibrating statistic (EqR/27 or EqERA). It is important to note that the Percentile Forecast is designed to work around the calibrating statistic only.
A player’s forecast is adjusted to the park and league context associated with the team listed at the top of the forecast page. Team dependant stats like Wins, RBIs, and BABIP account for the projected performance level of a player’s teammates
PECOTA forecasts playing time (plate appearances) in addition to a player’s rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a player’s previous record of performance, and the comparable player data, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions.
Thanks Richard.
Tom: I’m not sure. Shandler’s stuff is geared toward fantasy players so my suspicion is that projections are ballpark-adjusted, i.e., we might need to knock Gonzalez’ numbers down a bit for Petco Park.