Channel 4 rebroadcast the 2005 game of the year last night. The grand slam by Khalil Greene with two out in the ninth to tie it was unbelieveable. Equally unlikely were the events leading up to Greene’s heroics, propelled at least in part by Frank Robinson’s curious use of his bullpen.
This got me to thinking about the Padres’ bullpen (my mind works in ways I prefer not to ponder). With the lineup settled except for the battle of second base, and the rotation pretty well set in stone, one of the few areas of intrigue in this year’s camp (aside from who is actually on the team, of course) is the relief corps.
Last spring the Padres had Trevor Hoffman, Akinori Otsuka, and Scott Linebrink, followed by a bunch of question marks. Chris Hammond, Dennys Reyes, and Rudy Seanez ended up filling out the back end, with Clay Hensley picking up for Reyes after the latter had worn out his welcome.
This year, Otsuka is gone, with Hensley joining Hoffman and Linebrink as the only “certainties” (in quotes because relievers are such a volatile bunch) in the 2006 bullpen. That leaves eight guys fighting for the final three spots. In alphabetical order, they are:
Jason Anderson
Pros: Very effective at Triple-A each of the past two seasons, with excellent peripherals.
Cons: Wild, susceptible to longball in brief stints with Yankees, Mets, and Indians over parts of 2003-2005.
Bottom line: Insurance policy at Portland; ready to step in if needed.
Steve Andrade
Pros: Dominant minor-league numbers over four full seasons (2.20 ERA, 5.81 H/9, 13.34 K/9 in 172 IP); better version of Anderson.
Cons: Very little experience (13.2 IP) above Double-A; Rule V draftee must be offered back to Toronto if he doesn’t make team.
Bottom line: A key part of the Sean Burroughs/Dewon Brazelton deal; appears to be one of the front-runners.
Dewon Brazelton
Pros: Former first-round pick; great collegiate pitcher.
Cons: No consistent success at any professional level; no appreciable experience working out of bullpen.
Bottom line: Maybe Darren Balsley can help him unlock potential; then again, maybe not.
Doug Brocail
Pros: Best track record of any candidate; 4.06 career ERA over 688.2 IP.
Cons: ERA over 5.50 in 2005; turns 39 in May.
Bottom line: Has experience, pitched for the Padres before, will get a job.
Scott Cassidy
Pros: Strong 2005 at Triple-A.
Cons: One extended stint in bigs didn’t go so well (5.73 ERA in 58 games with Toronto in 2002).
Bottom line: Older version of Anderson; longshot to make team.
Pros: Over 600 big-league appearances; pitched for Bruce Bochy’s Padres in 2002.
Cons: 7.62 ERA in 67 games in 2005.
Bottom line: He’s the man if healthy and Bochy decides he needs a lefty.
Seth Etherton
Pros: Former first-round pick; plenty of experience in upper minors.
Cons: Poor results in three different trips to the Show (2000 Angels, 2003 Reds, 2005 Athletics); spotty health record.
Bottom line: Intriguing use of a Rule V pick; limited upside means he may stick with organization even if he doesn’t break camp with the big club — more potential insurance at Portland.
Brian Sikorski
Pros: Dominant numbers in Japan as reliever 2002-2005; scouting reports may be limited — advantage, pitcher.
Cons: Hasn’t faced a hitter in the big leagues since 2000; unknown quantity.
Bottom line: Padres didn’t bring him back to North America for giggles; he’ll be there.
With the exception of Brocail and Embree, I haven’t seen any of these guys pitch and can’t comment on their stuff. My impressions are based on stats and intuition.
If I were a betting man, I’d go with Andrade, Brocail, and Sikorski. I could see Embree sticking with the club if Bochy decides he needs a lefty. And if I had to guess which of these guys might come out of nowhere a la Hensley last year, it’d probably be Etherton.
Thanks for the rundown Geoff, I was actually going to ask you to do something like this, I have no idea who most of these guys are. As unheralded as last year’s bullpen was at this time they were household names compared to this bunch.
Embree is actually my pick to be the surprise of the year in limited innings. His arm was a mess last year but from what I’ve read he says he feels great after surgery to remove bone fragments. If none of these other guys are lefties then Embree will make the team as long as he’s healthy. I think Bochy will want him as a LOOGY if nothing else. It’s not like any of these other guys have big track records so they’d all have to pitch their way onto the team to beat out the lefty.
I’m going to chime in with Anthony. I heard Embree pitched hurt all of last year. He was pretty good in both ’03 and ’04, and I think that’s closer to what the Pads will get. You have to like his career postseason stats — 30 G, 21.3 IP, 1.69 ERA.
I think Brazelton was a good pickup — I bet a change of scenery will do him well. He’s pitched OK at times in TB, and might just need a fresh start.
My understanding is that Embree will make the team if healthy and if he shows anything in ST. Only lefty, and potentially more valuable than a Loogy. For my other guesses, I’ll go with Brocail and Sikorski. If the team goes with 7 relievers, I’ll guess Brazelton also because he could also be a starter if (when?) Park, Williams and (or?) Estes tank. Boy, it’s tough to figure . . .
Thanks, Geoff. Who’s who in Padres bullpen of 2006. Very cool.
I think Brocail and Embree is a lock unless they both tank in the ST. One is paid lots of moolahs and the other a LHP.
Brazelton is going to AAA to start the season regardless of how good he’s pitching in ST as an insurance policy on Williams, Park and Estes.
My guess is that both Rule V draftees are not going to make it since I agree with Geoff that Sikorski wasn’t brought in just for giggles despite the rumors that he will be dropped off a helicopter of his namesake from the bullpen everytime he got called up to pitch in relieve. He’ll be the new Akinori Otsuka, Secret Weapon, for the Padres in 2006.
Hey all,
What do you think will happen if Chan Ho, Woody, Estes (any or all) stink it up once we get rolling in SP? Do you think Boch goes the “Well, they’re veterans…just working on things…not too worried about results”, a la BLaw the last couple years? Could Hensley be bumped into the rotation to open up more bullpen spots for the list discussed? I wonder what will happen in Stauffer/Etherton/Brazelton/ Carrilo look great and the vets look horrible. On a side note, I keep finding Brazelton’s name in Red Sox and Yankee blogs. They are so sad to see him out of their division. Gas can, that’s all I have to say.
The Union-Tribune suggests Hensley might move from the pen to the rotation. Only because 2/5 of the rotation has stunk for years and another 1/5 stunk last year. Only a little thing like that.
Bochy has already talked about carrying 12 pitchers. Do we really need 7 relievers?
Hoffman
Linebrink
Embree
Brocail
Andrade
Park
I’ll put in a plug for Cassidy, who I got to see quite a bit in Portland last year. When Baker was demoted to mid-relief, Cassidy was lights out for the Beavers and the guys down here raved about his stuff. I got the sense that SD extended some effort to keep him in the system.
I don’t think there’s a guy that you’ve listed I’d bet on having a big year for the Pads, so based on that, I think Cassidy could surprise – if he throws this spring as he did in Portland in August.
Brian Sikorski? That’s Japanese for Edgar Huerta
For every guy the Pads have pulled off the scrap heap and had success with, there’s a pair that were released by the Beavers in May or June. I could see Sikorski going that route just as easily as being the secret weapon of 2006.
My guess at the bullpen is Hoffy, Linebrink, Hensley, Brocail, Embree, Sikorski and Andrade (only because of the Rule V and that they will carry 7 pitchers in order to keep him).
I think Cassidy, Anderson and Brazelton will go to AAA, but Dewon may wind up on the big league roster as the 7th guy in a swingman role since I think he’s out of options. We would have to sneak him through waivers to get him on the Beavers’ roster. I don’t know if anyone will want to take a chance on the “gas can,” but I’m intrigued enough so far (and think Balsley can rescue him) that I would hate losing him. I thing Etherton is the odd man out and will go back to his previous team.
Isn’t Scott Cassidy Portlandese for Jason Boyd?
They did keep him rather than Breslow.
For what it’s worth, PECOTA likes Sikorski – sees him as effective as Linebrink & Hoffman in 2006 (raw ERAs of 3.42, 3.37, and 3.38, respectively).
Projects Cassidy, Etherton, & Hensley (the latter two as swingmen) as worse than league average; Brocail worse still; Brazelton, well, his EqERA projection makes you think “jumbo jet.”
No projections for Anderson, Andrade, & Embree.
Is there any particular reason why we can’t send Chan Ho Park to Portland?
Chan Ho must have the right to refuse a minor league assignment. He could go for rehab, or by consenting, but we can’t bounce him down like a Hensley or Johnson.
TW pointed out my first thought, that Hensley may be a starter since we didn’t get Astacio (though I still think we’ll wind up w/ Wells).
“Is there any particular reason why we can’t send Chan Ho Park to Portland?”
First reason that comes to mind is that he isn’t good enough to crack the Beavers’ projected rotation.
But Tom hit on the actual answer – he’s been in the league long enough to refuse the assignment.