With the Mike Piazza signing sparing us the indignity of a David Ross/Doug Mirabelli showdown behind the plate, the only real battle this spring is at second base. Incumbent Mark Loretta is gone, leaving veteran Mark Bellhorn and prospect Josh Barfield to compete for the job.
Many people would like to see Barfield get the nod when the Padres break camp. Given manager Bruce Bochy’s aversion to young, unproven hitters, this might not be realistic. On the other hand, Khalil Greene was able to force Bochy’s hand two springs ago, so maybe there’s hope.
Today’s question is, What are the potential benefits and drawbacks of either scenario?
On the Barfield side of the equation, we have good hitting ability with some power and questionable plate discipline. Think along the lines of Orlando Hudson. We also have a defensive reputation that has been less than glowing in the past, but which seems not to be a concern at the moment. And, of course, we have youthful exuberance.
In Bellhorn, we have extreme inability to make contact (he’s struck out in 28.7% of career plate appearances — a higher frequency than Adam Dunn, Jose Hernandez, and Dave Kingman, among others). We also have brief but explosive displays of power (27 homers with the Cubs in 2002, 17 with the Red Sox in 2004). And we have veteran leadership, of which there is no shortage on this year’s team.
So. What’s on second?
I’m hoping we don’t have to watch the further ‘development’ of Mark Bellhorn anywhere on the roster. He’s not going to make more contact and he’s not likely to develop more power to compensate his ‘swing and miss’ style.
Just looking at the number of HRs you gave and graphing it, I predict he’ll hit 10-11 HR this year if he gets similar ABs as in those years but will strike out 200+ times. Yeah, it’s pointless to me.
I’ll take Barfield with Orlando Thill Hudson’s production in 2003 over Bellhorn’s ‘performance’ even if I have to put up with errors on the field.
I think if Barfield is given the chance to get 400+ ABs, he’ll hit 25 doubles and 8 HRs. I’ll take that from a rookie to go with 200+ Ks.
You have to remember Ray Ordonez went MIA after spring training in 04, that forced Bocheys hand during the season because he did not have a viable veteran backup to put in for a week every time Khalil went 0-4, because of that Khalil was able to showcase his defensive skills every night.
Hey guys, sorry for the hijack. Geoff, Jonah Keri here from Baseball Prospectus. We’re hosting a very cool Padres spring training event next weekend in Arizona, and I wanted to send you the info so you could let your readers know. If possible, could you please drop me a line at jonah_keri@baseballprospectus.com and I’ll fill you in? Thanks.
(It’s a Pads/Mariners game featuring a pre-game talk from both Towers and Bill Bavasi, fyi, here’s the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/events/)
Steve –
I was in Peoria the day Rey Ordonez went MIA, and I am here to tell you, it was not MIA. It was reminiscent of the day Ruben Rivera was released. He stormed out in a huff, tires squealing, never to be heard from again. Ordonez was very quick to realize, and was notified by the FO, that Khalil had already, after a couple weeks in camp, beaten him out for the SS job. Boch was completely and immediately sold on Khalil. It seems to me like Boch is more interested in maturity and professionalism than being young or old. Khalil was a pro from day one, and he performs, prepares, approaches the game with intelligence and insight. I see a lot of that in Barfield, as well. Josh Barfield is no Matt Bush. Josh Barfield is 23 years old, he has over 2000 at bats under his belt, he has stuggled defensively (like 30 errors in his rookie year) and overcome (8 or so last year), he has struggled offensively (real tough first 1/2 last year) and overcome (huge second half). If the Padres do not give Barfield a chance (40+ consecutive starts), at some point this season, they should just deal him, because he has nothing left to prove at the minor league level. Incidentally, Bellhorn has some value (some, I said) off the bench as a versatile infielder, switch hitter, with pretty good pop when he makes contact (he also has a history of being VERY clutch – see: 2004 playoff). Sorry for the rant, Goeff.
PECOTA’s weighted mean projections see Barfield and Bellhorn as crossing paths this year with nearly equal rate stats:
OPS – EqA
Barfield – 738 – 260
Bellhorn – 743 – 266
But they do project Barfield to get the lion share’s of the playing time:
PA – 2B – HR – K
Barfield 530 – 26 – 14 – 109
Bellhorn 332 – 16 – 10 – 98
Jonah: No problem, thanks for the heads-up!
Jesse: Again, no problem. I think another factor working in Barfield’s favor in terms of maturity level is that his dad played in the big leagues. Then again, that was the theory with Burroughs so who knows.
I think Bochy is misunderstood. He doesn’t have a consistent aversion for youngsters or preference for vets. He just likes who he likes. Fans like us prefer youngsters, so his even-ness or randomness make him feel on the opposite end of the spectrum from our point of view.
Eric, there may be truth in this. Part of the problem is that Bochy hasn’t been given a great deal of young talent on the hitting side that has been able to produce right away. It will be interesting to see if Fuson’s drafts help change this. I wonder if this also relates back to the “getting everyone on the same page” in terms of organizational philosophy, etc.
Just because Bochy has demonstrated an aversion to youngsters in the past, doesn’t mean he hasn’t had a good reason for doing so.
Jesse — great story about Ordonez. I was not sorry to see him go — saw him plenty of times playing for the Mets, and he was a turd. A prima donna turd.
Re: Bellhorn. I’m not so on board with the clutch thing. He was 4 for 31 before games 6 & 7 of the ALCS — and it was ugly, too. I think with him, it’s kind of all or nothing. I agree that he provides some value . . . but definitely off the bench.
Geoff, could you please wing me your e-mail addy (couldn’t find it on the site) or drop me an e-mail? Want to pick your brain about letting other Pads fans know, if possible. Thanks!
You don’t want Mark Bellhorn as your everyday guy. He was great for the Red Sox in 2004 but that was a total fluke. He made the line-up because Pokey Reese had to switch from second to shortstop when Nomar was injurred. He overperformed, but he’s really a journeyman type of guy. He’s a good guy to have on the bench though, while breaking in a new guy. He does have good OBP, he knows the pitches that he can’t hit (there are plenty) and lays off of them, and if he gets on a power streak it’s worth starting him.
His strike-outs, however, are mighty, mighty ugly. I mean just aesthetically not pleasing.
As a red sox fan who’s seen some Bellhorn, he needs his plate approach reworked a little. His uppercut swing does miss a lot of pitches but he takes too many pitches and racks up a lot of backwards K’s. After an awful 2003, he was maybe the 4th most productove hitter for the 2004 Sox and then turned into a black hole in 2005, so the Padres could luck out like the 2004 Sox did. Or Barfield could turn out better. Bellhorn does turn a mean DP though.
I wrote last year that I expected Barfield to start the year in AAA but win the big league job before the season ended.
Towers/Bochy (I don’t remember who) said that Bellhorn was acquired to be, and is, the starting 2B for the season. – The statement doesn’t bother me. I think it was made as motivation (for Barfield) more than it being a statement of absolute truth.
Barfield IS a potential impact player at 2B. The last thing we want is for the Padres’ brain-trust to HAND him the job and let him flop. We WANT him to break the doors off their hinges and TAKE the freakin’ job.
Bobby Hill baby, Bobby Hill! He can lead off or bat 2nd, switch hits, has speed, doesn’t K often and has a knack for getting on base.
I’m really rooting for Barfield. I saw him play in Rancho Cucamonga during his Cal League days, and I was impressed. He was a man among boys. Give him a chance – let him grow.