So this can be kind of an open thread for whatever’s on anyone’s mind. I’ll throw out some ideas; take ‘em or leave ‘em, throw out some of your own. Whatever floats your bizoat.
- Brian Giles. Woo-hoo!
- What’s up with this crazy market for relievers?
- Leif Garrett.
- You’re in charge of the Padres; what do you do next?
- Leif Erikson.
- Back roads of California.
- Single malt scotch.
- Leif me alone.
Man, this entry stinks. Help me out here.
I’ll take a shot at running the team. I stuck mostly to moves that have already been reported, nothing too crazy here:
1. The LF job will be up for grabs between Klesko and Johnson. Hopefully the competition will be good for them and they’ll push each other in spring training. If there are any trades available for Klesko I pursue them, I would eat some of his salary in return for a useful player at a position we need.
2. Klesko is not our 1B. With Vinny, Khalil and Loretta we have (I think) above average defense in the infield and I don’t want to screw that up with inferior play at first. Since we can’t afford a big time offensive threat at first I would go with a defensive 1B on the cheap. I just read that the Giants probably will not offer arbitration to J.T. Snow. I’d sign him to a cheap contract and hope he can bounce back at the plate. Klesko (or Sweeney if we can resign him) would be the fallback here.
3. Pursue the Eaton trade to Texas for Laird, Nix and whatever else we can get. Solidify catcher and give us some options in the OF. Despite his improved record I don’t think Eaton made that much of a leap last year. I think his trade value is at it’s highest right now so cash it in.
4. I’m not a big fan of bringing Wells back given his age but if we can get him fairly cheaply (Roberts and Burroughs, Aki if we get some money back) I would do it. He’s probably good for 160 innings and will usually keep the game under control thanks to his excellent command.
5. Don’t go more than 2 years/$7 million per for Trevor. If he signs, great he’s our closer. If not, we go with Linebrink and build another bargain basement bullpen.
6. We need another starter. Spend whatever we have left on the best free agent starter we can afford.
We won’t have a great offense or starting rotation but I think the excellent defense, Petco factor and (hopefully) another good bullpen will keep scoring down and give us a chance. Barring any big additions by LA or SF I think this would give us a good chance at repeating.
Good stuff, Anthony. I like the idea of Snow if he’s cheap. As it stands right now, Klesko is at 1B and, like you, I have real concerns about his defense.
I also agree about the starting pitching. Who among the free agent crop do you think would be a good fit in terms of ability/performance and likely salary demands?
1. Despite reported talk from last night’s season-ticket-holder-gala, I think Giles will move back to his Pittsburgh-days home in LF, and Johnson will be our starting RF (equal range, stronger arm). I think Roberts will be elsewhere.
2. I agree that having Klesko at 1B brings down our infield D – I’ve been saying it for months – fellow bloggers, I said that back that night at Petco, rememeber? However, that’s where he’ll start the year until his bat doesn’t warrent the errors his glove is causing… He’s untradable (no-trade + large $$$) so at some point I think he’ll become a bench player or sunk cost (cut) and we’ll trade for another 1B (during the season).
3. Agree.
4. Disagree. Bring back Wells. But, Boston doesn’t want to pay any of his ’06 salary (which is actually OK w/ me – but then don’t send any prospects their way – Wells for Roberts & Burroughs, straight up).
5. I’d go UP TO $6m per (for 2 years + some sort of vested option) I don’t know if Anthony meant $7per or 7 total for 2 but I like that he didn’t go 3 guarenteed.
6. No comment – I haven’t thought this one through…
And my own..
7. Trade Aki (hat tip: Paul R.). As one of you pointed out, he was phenomenal in ’04 and average last year. Trade him while his perceived value is high and his the market for relievers is wild (Business 101: “buy low, sell high”).
Love to see JT Snow at first, guys a gamea. Trade Aki, trade Eaton? Hmmm, we need pitching, don’t we and those two are at least productive?
Trevor, Trevor. What are his plans after baseball? ESPN, front office, retirement? I’d try to work that angle with him, make him a Padre for life with a deal that includes a position in the org after he retires in two years. I hope he’s no Willy Mayes or Jerry Rice. I wish too the local sports talk radio dudes would lay off situation a bit. Reporting every squeak and squabble doesn’t help. OTOH, if trevor calls and wants to go on the air, its hard to say no.
Pass the popcorn.
Wells, nooooooooooo! it might be enevitable though. I guess I hoped we’d get younger not older. Surprised to see Giles was 35. Oh well.
I’m reluctant to trade Aki until the Trevor situation is settled. I think it’s likely that last year is more his true ability, the league figured him out. But when he’s on he’s outstanding and I think an effective setup man.
There’s not much out there for free agent starters, is there? Did Jamie Moyer retire? I could see him being effective if we could get him on a cheap one year contract. I would take a chance with Tony Armas, if he can stay healthy he could be effective. I would also look at guys who would be ok if they could keep the ball in the park. Maybe Scott Elarton, at least he should be cheap. I’d stay away from Byung Hyun Kim at any price.
I would go as high as $7 million a year for 2 years for Trevor on account of all the reasons people want him to stay. Baseball wise, I think $5 mil per year is fair. I do think there is some value in the attention his record will bring, what he’s meant in the community, etc.
And I agree with Padre Mike, see if we can get keep Trevor after he retires. I’d love to have him around to teach young pitchers the art of the change up.
“I do think there is some value in the attention his record will bring, what he’s meant in the community, etc.”
I COMPLETELY agree! However, that needs to be the secondary reason behind what he can do on the field. Again (and not that you, Anthony, disagree with me), as long as we sign players based MORE on our sentimental reasons than on the player’s skills, we’ll continue to be a second-tier team.
I think Trevor is OK for three years. His work ethic and limited innings mean he is less likely to get killed by the aging bug. And being willing to go three years when many clubs will only go two would be a huge advantage to the Pads. At the very least, two years and an option with a buyout.
The thing that worries me about Trevor is he is entirely dependent on the speed differential between his fastball and his change. And if he’s not able to locate his change he has to go with his fastball and gets hammered. If he loses any more velocity it could lead to a lot of problems. On the other hand he’s shown he can adjust to diminishing velocity so maybe he’ll be alright.
And I agree with Peter that performance has to come first. That’s why it drives me crazy when I hear people get excited about bringing in some mediocre player just because he’s a San Diego native.
1. I’d like to see Johnson given a shot in RF, but I see him as the odd man out given our dearth of possible leadoff hitters. If Roberts stays (and he may very well move on in a trade), I think he’ll play left and leadoff. Even if we move Roberts, I wouldn’t be surprised to see KT go after someone like Joey Gathright to play LF and leadoff.
2. I think we’re stuck with Klesko playing 1B, but if we could sign an alternative cheaply, I’d prefer to go with a right handed bat. Unfortunately there aren’t any; therefore, I propose Travis Lee (I know, I know, another mediocre local player, but he’s adequate at the plate and very good defensively. Preferable to JT Snow, whom I otherwise love, due to being MUCH younger).
3, 4. I’m OK with trading Eaton, for value, if Wells comes back, but we need one or the other of them in the rotation to avoid going Peavy, Williams, Park, Stauffer, Hensley. Of course there is still FA pitching or the possiblity of other trades, I suppose. Armas and Astacio, or Byrd are a couple of cheaper possibilities, but not very exciting. Burnett, Millwood, or Morris are more attractive, but unlikely due to cost. Other than that there’s not much on the FA side.
5. I was wrong about Giles, so I may be wrong about Trevor, but if Tom Gordon got a 3 years at $6 Mil per year, Trevor isn’t going to come back for anything less than that or something very front loaded with an option for a third. In other words, I’d expect him to demand much more than $6 per year if he’s only getting two years since he should be valued much higher than Gordon (at least based on surface evaluations, I’m sure we could make some sabre arguments Gordon is a superior pitcher).
6. I’d love to sign another quality starter, but I don’t think it’s in the budget. I think we end up with something like Peavy, Eaton/Wells, Williams, Stauffer, and Hensley. I’m pretty much OK with that, too, since Wells, Williams, Park, Klesko, and possibly Cameron come off the books in 2007 leaving us able to bring in a real stud of a starter (Andy Pettite, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder are due, and possibly Mark Buerhle) along with Carrillo and giving experience to Stauffer and Hensley.
Kevin Goldstein’s daily Baseball America Prospect Report today shows Freddy Guzman going 2-for-3 yesterday to raise his BA to .269 in the Dominican Winter League … so it’s drop’d a lot since I last noticed … sigh … I’m still hoping he has a ripin’ first half for the Beavers and earns his way into the Padres’ leadoff spot!
LM, is he still DH’ing? Just wondering how his elbow is doing.
Kyle Farnsworth to Yankees – $17MM/3 years.
Based strictly on the (insane) market, that’s gotta put Hoffman at least in the $22-25MM range, doesn’t it? Maybe $15-18MM/2?
Rich, buddy…
“His work ethic and limited innings mean he is less likely to get killed by the aging bug.”
That’s not the issue. When asked (last year) about the difference between his success in Save situations vs. his troubles in non-save innings, TREVOR said that in Save situations the hitters are more aggressive and his change is more effective. In non-save situations, hitters are more patient and his change is less effective. TREVOR said that.
So in HIS OWN mind, we’re signing a 40-inning pitcher. We may give him an extra 20 innings to keep him sharp, but he won’t be effective in those innings.
Torn about Trevor, but I say, don’t resign him, or if you do, protect yourself with clauses.
As stated above, the guys good for 40 innings and last year there were signs of cracks in the steely facade.
At this point, he is a better than average closer (who used to be superman) asking for elite money. Its the market driving the price, same reason that 1400 sqft house in Clairemont is worth 600K.
If value in the field is the primary reason, you gotta look real hard at a fat deal. Sure it would be nice to have take the save lead as a Padre, but being saddled with a large contract a la Klesko, is tough on a medium market team.
Load that contract of with performance clauses, options, performance boneye and other stuff to protect the Padres, or maybe a policy from Lloyds of London. http://www.lloyds.com/
Would Lloyds touch it?
- 38 years old
- history of shoulder woes
Doesn’t seem like a winning combo to me…
The one position that isn’t being discussed is Catcher. I am not convinced that Olivo is really a number one guy. So I would go and make a deal for someone else. One suggestion a friend made was Kelly Shoppach a AAA catcher with the Red Sox who is obviously blocked by Varitek. I also have heard Lo Duca’s name bandied about.
I also try really hard to trade Loretta. He definitely has value to teams like the Red Sox and Cardinals who are looking for a second baseman. I think Barfield deserves his shot and I think he could make a run at ROY.
I would also like one more good young (focus on young KT) starter in the rotation but they are harder to come by because no one wants to give one up.
One thought about a catcher: Paul LoDuca? Fiery guy, may come cheap because the Marlins are giving away the store, plays more than one position, not the usual amount of innings behind the plate for his age, knows the NL, knows the NL West and best of all…he’ll be 34, which seems to be the minimum age of players we’re interested in now (he said, only half-jokingly). Don’t know his contract situation.
Not really advocating for his acquisition, more wondering what others think if he came for the right price.
LoDuca as an option is intriguing, and I am also one who thinks the book is far from closed on Olivo. There was a reason he came so cheap. Yet his ERA was lower than Ramon’s, and he does seem to be one of those players who really lets his emotions translate into performance…and he’s happy here. It could work out fine, but I worry about it.
LoDuca wouldn’t be bad as a stop gap for a year or two till some of the youngsters were ready. He is going to give you an average of about .280-.285 and an OB% between .330 and .340. His ops will come in right at .700 because he doesn’t give you a ton of power and he doesn’t make up for it like Giles by being on base all the time. He is getting paid about $4 million per year which is cheap considering what Ramon is about to get.
If you are willing to spend that much though it may be worth it to wait and see if Ramon or Benjie don’t find good landing spots.
Catcher is a spot that I think you overpay for offensive performance. I’d rather save the money and go with Olivo and a really good defensive backup than shell out $4 million for LoDuca, who isn’t all that great, or more for Molina or Hernandez. It sounds like there’s no chance Ramon will be back at any price anyway. Take the money you save there and put it into better pitching or a first baseman that can hit.
Anyone know where the 1090 guys are gettng the Loretta for Wells rumors? I haven’t seen that reported anywhere but Darren Smith today was saying it’s very likely to go down.
Loretta-for-Wells rumor was in Canepa’s column in this morning’s U-T:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/canepa/20051202-9999-1s2canepa.html
There’s NO WAY we’re doing a Loretta for Wells deal. Won’t happen.
As for Barfield, he struggled MIGHTILY at the beginning of the season in AAA last year. He also didn’t open the ’04 season on fire when he was in AA. It makes a lot of sense to let him open the season in AAA…
Now could we trade Loretta and let Barfield start next season here? Sure, but we’d get more than Wells for the deal.
Wells was more valuable than Lo last season.
Peter certainly knows our minors better than I. That said Barfield has shown the ability to adjust at every level. I think that it may be a bit bumpy early but he is from major league stock and after a month or so he will really surprise some folks. I am a firm believer in trading guys early rather than late. I think we should trade Loretta now while he has some value. If we trade Loretta then I think it makes sense to give the kid a shot rather then go and sign some stop gap measure for a year who is going to give us minimal production.
Josh’s performance doesn’t suggest that he’s ready yet.
A friend of mine with Giants’ season tix called their stadium “SBC/TBD Park” in an email to me today … just funny
Not to be too hard headed about Barfield but here is what Krasovic wrote in September…
“Barfield, a second baseman with Triple-A Portland, has batted .346 with 20 doubles, 11 home runs and 50 RBI in 321 at-bats since June 1. For the season, he is batting .309 with 15 homers and 72 RBI. Barfield has batted .350 at home. He has at least one hit in 19 of the last 20 games, and he has stolen 20 bases in 25 tries.”
In my mind he is certainly worth a look. It is not as if we are pulling him up from AA.
I agree with Peter (for once). Loretta for Wells won’t go down if we are smart. Why would we give up such a dsolid player to an organization that has NO bargaining power in the situation. Wells has hamstrung them and they know we don’t feel he is worth what he is making or we would have paid it last year…
…but I do think Wells has value to the team…but not a frontline player. Burroughs alone or we don’t want him thanks, shop him elsewhere…What? He’ll retire unless you trade him to us? Then be happy with what you’re getting or shut up….
oh yeah…single malt was brought up. My everyday scotch right now is Glenmorangie 12 yr old aged in the port finish barrels. I like it and not too expensive, can get it at Trader Joes for about $30. You can get a 1 liter of the Glenlivet at the duty free at the border for $25. I have a bottle of JW Green which I am going to try soon. It’s a blend but is supposed to be good, and I got it for $40 and most places that have it are asking $75.
Since you asked Geoff…
Nice. I’ll have to try some of those. I’ve just discovered the Macallan, which I’m liking very much. My wife and I went to Peohe’s on Coronado for our 10th anniversary last week and I got the 18-yr, which is incredibly smooth but is priced for special occasions. I picked up a bottle of 12-yr at BevMo for $35; haven’t opened it yet but plan to this weekend.
I guess one benefit of having a crappy farm system is that we won’t lose anyone in the Rule 5 Draft … http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/051202rulefive.html … anyone on that list you think the Padres’ will take a flier on? I hope not, but if we do, make it a pitcher …
I’ve heard the Wells-Loretta rumors from places than I trust more than our home-town rag (along Scott & BR, not a place I go for baseball analysis), Scott Miller (CBS.SportsLine.com) reiterated that trade rumor w/ Coach… And the MTY1090 “news” segment had a soundclip (many of you probably heard this AM) where Boomer talked about “it” getting done soon.
And the Nomar to S.D. rumors won’t go away either (purportedly to play 2B) but I’d love to see him don a 1B glove… A lot of older, bigger, good-hitting middle infielders eventually move to 1B…
A good overview of the top player moves that might brew at the Winter Meetings … http://tinyurl.com/ayztr
LM: Thanks for the Rule V preview. Maier is intriguing among the hitters. Ricky Barrett is a USD grad.
Geoff-
I watched the Cream:Royal Albert Hall show on PBS last night. Geezer Rock is was not. A damn good show, not one where they just ‘spun the oldies’. We were right — unbelievably, Clapton was the ‘weak’ link in the band.
The sound was remarkably clear from both the vocals and monitors. Plus, being a three-man band, it’s easy to isolate each player (and vocal). Ginger Baker is the most effortless drummer I’ve ever seen. Jack Bruce rivals Entwhistle at times.
I’m not saying you should rush to the video store to see it but if you’re sitting around after the kids are in bed and it comes on, check it out (not the most ringing endorsement, I know). More than just a curiosity or “can they still do it?” viewing. Impressive for a bunch of geezers.
Though they’re no Chin Waggers…
Rich, you read my mind about the Glenmorangie. I saw it at Trader Joe’s last night and was wondering how it is. I usually go with the Macallan or 12 yr old Glenfiddich, I’ll have to try the Glenmorangie next.
I’ll say one thing about the off season so far: It’s a lot of fun to follow a team that’s at least making some moves. A lot of teams out there haven’t done a thing.
I have to say that I’m in Peter’s camp as well regarding the Lorretta for Wells swap. Why would the Padres give that much to get him when Wells has told anyone who will listen that he won’t pitch in Boston again. I can see an expanded deal, maybe with a third club getting involved, where the Red Sox get Lorretta, Aki, and Dave Roberts and the Padres wind up with Wells and a collection of prospects. I would do that collection for Wells and Lester or Wells and Papelborn…
I think that the Pad’s do trade Lorretta this offseason and go with Bobby Hill for the first half of the year and go with Barfield around the All-Star Break.
Thanks, Brian, for the Cream report. I’m not surprised in the least. Those cats can play. An old band of mine used to do “Sunshine of Your Love.” That riff was a lot of fun to play, and I love that the beginning of the guitar solo is the vocal line from the old Rodgers and Hart tune “Blue Moon.”
As for Loretta, I’m not sure what to make of those rumors. Seems like a lot to give up for Wells. I think Aki and Roberts makes a lot of sense, especially if the Pads are confident about re-signing Hoffy.
I’m not sure about Hill at 2B. I’ve heard mixed things about his defense there.
Anyway, whatever happens, as Anthony and others have said, it’s fun to watch.
Padre Mike: Can you shoot me an email? I can’t find your addy; nothing urgent, just when you have a sec. Thanks!
According to BA, the Padres have 4 Type A free agents (Randa, Hoffman, Seanez, and Hernandez)and one type B (Hammond). Do they offer arbitration to all of them? At 2 first rounders for type A and one for type B, this could mean quite a haul of extra picks at June draft time…
Who would you offer arbitration to? I’d certainly go with Randa, Hernandez, Hoffman the other two are maybes for me given what free agent relievers are getting this offseason.
My .02 on the catching spot. I think it’s where we have good reason to go cheap and use the money elsewhere. No reason to sign an FA or bring in someone through a trade who has a large contract or is signed for more than a year. Let’s not block our strongest minor league spot with anyone.
Will Olivo produce offensively like he did last year or more to his norm? Almost certainly more to his norm, but he is solid defensively (mental lapses aside
and comes cheaply. No way on Lo Duca. At 34 he’s not going to undergo a resurgence offensively and will not bring much more, if anything, to the plate than Olivo will. Throw in Olivo is better on D, younger, and cheaper, and you have to go with Miguel behind the dish with another cheap alternative as his backup.
Paul, I disagree. I’d offer Hernandez, Hoffman, and Hammond (not Randa). I don’t want to get stuck with his contract. With the market for relievers, we can either re-sign Hammond, or someone else will. By the way, Hammond posted a 3.84 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a 34-60 BB/SO ratio…
I disagree with trying to have Nomar play 1B. I think his groin is a risk at 2B as well, but at 1B it’s almost certain to be reinjured. I could see him in LF if we move Roberts, but not anywhere in our IF.
Pat, how would his groin take more abuse at 1B than at 2B? Stretching on a close play?
Plus, I don’t think we have a hole in LF (Giles in LF, Camron in CF, Johnson in RF).
1B is ALWAYS the last resort defensively. Nomar to 1B makes PERFECT sense…
Keep in mind we have Barfield coming at 2B. We’re not ready to give up on him. In fact, a lot of you know that I’m close to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball America. I can’t say a lot, but I do the Padres are still high on him. We wouldn’t sign Nomar to a long-term deal with the INTENT of blocking Barfield unless we were shopping Josh…
Why sign Nomar at all? Is everybody that gunshy because of his injury history that he might be somewhat of a bargain? If that is the case, then it seems high risk, high reward. But our team full of number four and five starters will still get manhandled. I know I sound like a broken record, but I don’t think we need Nomar.
Take the money we would spend on Trevor and either get a top notch starter or offensive 1b.
.500 is not going to win this division in 2006 and the Padres have too many holes to fill to bring back an aging, less effective closer at 7-8 million per for 2-3 years.
Not signing Trevor would also free up some money to where we might actually draft the best available player in the first round and pay him the bonus needed to get the farm system off the bottom of the rankings.
The spending of the Yankees and the overreaction of the loss of Wagner by the Phillies does not mean we need to do the same with paying Trevor.
If you spend on Trevor, you almost have to increase payroll and buy a starting pitcher or two which is what is still needed if the Padres truly expect to win the west in 06.
2005 Stats:
Padres’ Team ERA: 4.13 (7th in NL)
Padres’ Team Runs: 684 (13th)
(Yes, I know, park factors, but still) You decide…
Hey Peter, yes, it’s the repeated stretching to receive the ball, particularly on a close play as you mentioned. That motion is very taxing to the groin/hip area which he injured. 1B may be a last resort defensively for many players, but how many of them are coming off a catastrophic groin injury where the muscle was torn completely off the bone?
I also agree about 2B. I don’t think we should sign him for that position if we’re planning to move Loretta because we should be putting Barfield there.
My preference for the OF is the same as yours, Giles-Cameron-Johnson, with the players we have now, but if management isn’t willing to commit to Johnson, LF is the only spot I think Nomar should play for us. Just my opinion.