I’m not in the best frame of mind right now. Frankly, I’m disgusted with the way the Padres are playing. There’s a decent enough chance they’ll make the playoffs by default, but if they keep doing what they’re doing, they’ll get smoked pretty quickly and have a nice long winter to think about it.

Anyway, to the question:

1. Have a black hole at first base. Of the 97 players in the NL with 250 or more plate appearances through July 21, 73 have a higher OPS than Phil Nevin. Don’t believe me? Follow the link for the full list. Here are a few key names:

                  AB   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO AB/HR
   Joe Randa     327 .284 .353 .474 .190  27.3
   Mike Matheny  252 .250 .308 .448 .198  28.0
   Rich Aurilia  233 .258 .311 .442 .184  23.3
   Nevin         268 .265 .306 .414 .149  29.8
   

   Seriously, when guys like Randa, Matheny, and Aurilia are outproducing your first baseman, it’s time to admit that maybe your team isn’t as good as you thought it was. Not to rub salt in the wound, but Aurilia was a Padre last year and the Reds are only paying him $500k.

2. Sit one of your best hitters in favor of (s)crappy veterans. Speaking of first base, Xavier Nady is one of the few legitimate power threats on this club. And yet he has fewer at-bats than Sean Burroughs (.255/.327/.302), Geoff Blum (.239/.319/.364), and Nevin, among others. On a team struggling to score runs, there really aren’t any good excuses for not getting Nady into the lineup most every day. Personally I’d like to see him get a shot at third base. Not that RBI is a great stat, but it’s a little sad when every team in both leagues has gotten more ribbies out of the hot corner than yours. Julio Franco has driven in more runs than all the Padres third basemen put together this season in fewer than half the at-bats, and he’s 46 years old.
3. Play really well one month out of every four, mail it in the rest of the time. Check out the monthly breakdowns (through Thursday’s disasterpiece):

   Mon   W  L  RS  RA
   Apr  11 13 105 105
   May  22  6 160 117
   Jun  10 17  91 123
   Jul   7 10  69  82
   

   Take away May, and you’re looking at a .420 winning percentage and a -45 run differential (nine-tenths of a run per game). That is just pitiful. That is 2002-03 pitiful. That is Gary Bennett/Donaldo Mendez/Deivi Cruz/Trenidad Hubbard/Julius Matos/Wiki Gonzalez pitiful.

I dunno. Probably if I were in the mood for thoughtful, cogent analysis of the current situation, I could come up with a lot more ways to lose a division. But right now I’m mainly just pissed. Every loss to a Josh Fogg, a Scott Erickson, a Scott Elarton, a D.J. Houlton, a Brandon Backe, a Kaz Ishii eats at me. Playoff quality teams do not let mediocre pitchers put guys on and leave them stranded. Where is the killer instinct?

A buddy at work suggested the Padres might need someone to get vocal in the clubhouse. Not a bad idea, as long as results follow. And I’m not sure this team has it in them to produce consistently good results.

What to do? Don’t give up the farm, such as it is, for short-term gains. There is a good nucleus here, with guys like Jake Peavy, Adam Eaton, Scott Linebrink, Mark Loretta, Khalil Greene, Nady, and Brian Giles (assuming the Padres re-sign him). Once the fat contracts are off the books after 2006, the club will still have a relatively young (and good) core and be in position to re-tool. And it shouldn’t be a major effort.

Not that I want to be thinking too far ahead, but it would be short-sighted to make a huge push for this year. That doesn’t mean the club shouldn’t make moves. If a Randa type can be had for a reasonable price, then go for it. But all this talk of Barry Zito (especially now that the A’s are making their own push) or other high-profile guys on bad clubs seems unrealistic to me.

Maybe things will be better in Philly. I sure hope so.