The Perils of Projecting

Friday, September 5, 2008
by Geoff Young
Five years ago today I was extolling the virtues of one Sean Burroughs, noting the similarities between his second big-league season and that of Derek Jeter. It sounds ridiculous now, but the comparison seemed valid at the time: Sean Burroughs vs Derek Jeter, Sophomore Season  AgePABAOBPSLGOPS+ Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Burroughs22578.286.352.402105 Jeter23748.291.370.405103 The key word here is "seemed." It's important to remember (and something I have to remind myself of constantly) that no two snowflakes are alike, even though they may look the same. It's also important to remember that there are no "sure things" when it comes to prospects. How does this apply to the current rebuilding project? Well, a lot of times -- ...
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Padres Farm Report (9 Jun 08)

Monday, June 9, 2008
by Geoff Young
Triple-A -- Portland 4, Sacramento 3 Chase Headley: 0-for-3, 2 BB Brian Myrow: 1-for-3, BB Chip Ambres (CF): 1-for-3, 2B, BB Will Venable (DH): 1-for-4 Vince Sinisi (RF): 0-for-2, BB, SF Matt Antonelli: 1-for-4, 2B Josh Geer: 8 IP, 7 H, 3 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 6 SO, HBP Geer has worked 6+ innings in each of his past nine starts. His K/9 is better than 6.0 this year, which is a good sign. The 12 homers in 79 innings are ...
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Posted in Future Friars | 12 Comments »

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Padres Farm Report (23 Apr 08)

Wednesday, April 23, 2008
by Geoff Young
Triple-A Salt Lake @ Portland, postponed due to rain. That's gotta be better than snow, right? Double-A -- Frisco 7, San Antonio 4 Chad Huffman: 1-for-5, HR Kyle Blanks: 1-for-2, 2 BB, SB Drew Macias: 1-for-4 Craig Cooper: 0-for-4, E Jose Lobaton: 1-for-3, SF Matthew Buschmann: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 SO Jonathan Ellis: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 1 SO Neil Jamison: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO Blanks has drawn five walks over the past two games. High-A -- Lake Elsinore 9, High Desert 4 Javis Diaz: 2-for-5, 2B, 2 SB Cedric Hunter: 1-for-4, SF Eric Sogard: 0-for-1, 2 BB, SF Mitch Canham: 1-for-2, 2B, 2 BB, E Rayner Contreras: 2-for-3, BB Drew Miller: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ...
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Top 10 Prospects for 2008

Tuesday, December 11, 2007
by Geoff Young
I've shied away from compiling top prospect lists in recent years because it's my belief that what they best measure are the list-maker's biases. (Okay, and maybe I'm still feeling a little sheepish about ranking Jake Gautreau ahead of Jason Bay once upon a time.) Other people like reading prospect lists, though, and I'm not prepared to be a curmudgeon without good cause, so what the hey. My general approach is to balance upside with proximity to the big leagues as best I can, then hope I get lucky. I've seen six of my picks play in person, including four of my top five. For those guys, my evaluations include their statistical record, second-hand reports I've read, ...
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Posted in 2008 Baseball Annual, Future Friars | 69 Comments »

League Offensive Levels for Padres Affiliates, 2007

Wednesday, December 5, 2007
by Geoff Young
Yesterday we were talking about Rookie-league numbers and reader Didi asked about something I hinted at but didn't delve into as much as I might have. I wasn't being coy, so much as I was being... disorganized. In discussing the motivation behind providing comparable players for Padres minor leaguers, I noted that: Cedric Hunter hit .282/.344/.373 in the Midwest League, which seems really low until you consider how much his league suppressed offense in 2007. Didi then asked: Is it possible to describe the league (as you mentioned the number of games played and league average numbers) to add a bit more detail? Yes, it is absolutely possible. It also is absolutely necessary: Offensive Stats by League, 2007  MLBPCLTEXCALMWLNWLAZLDSL Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and ESPN. R/G4.805.134.635.594.345.135.664.65 BA.268.279.264.271.255.259.264.238 OBP.336.346.338.344.324.344.350.338 SLG.423.437.407.426.372.386.377.320 BB/SO.500.494.503.477.417.456.464.542 ISO.155.158.143.155.117.127.113.082 As you can see, ...
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Posted in 2008 Baseball Annual, Future Friars | 110 Comments »